-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 071154
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
654 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY AND THEN PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR
RAINFALL WILL END THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RISK FOR SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 6 AM FRIDAY...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING FOR WINDS UP TO 45 TO 50 MPH IN
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE BEACHES.

THE STORM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WAS
LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER.
THE PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 1001 MB NEAR DAYBREAK. A SLOW
DEEPENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY REACHES
THE COASTAL LOW THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. IN ADDITION...THE
UPPER LOW WILL CAPTURE THE SURFACE FEATURE...AND THIS WILL MAKE
FOR A SLOW OFFSHORE PROGRESSION OF THE STORMY WEATHER. BY THIS
EVE...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED 50 TO 100 MILES E OF CAPE
HATTERAS AND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE HEAVY RAIN HAD SHIFTED WELL N AND NE OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE MORE RAIN TODAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW. ALSO...WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING OVERHEAD...THE CHARACTER OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
SLIGHTLY WITH TEMPS AT 500 MB DROPPING TO ABOUT MINUS 20 DEG C.
THE LIFTED INDEX WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO...MAINLY AT THE COAST
AND EVEN LOWER OFFSHORE.

THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS OUR SW AND W ZONES EARLY THIS
EVE AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVE...
LASTLY ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR COAST NEAR MIDNIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL PRELIMINARY REPORTS OF MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN THUS FAR
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE STILL EXPECT MOST WILL HAVE
RECEIVED A GOOD 2 INCH SOAKING BY THE TIME ALL OF THE RAIN QUITS.
GENERAL RIVER FLOODING IS THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND
TO PERSIST INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

A CLOUDY DAY IS IN STORE AS BRIEF DRY SLOTTING HAS SHIFTED
OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL BE ON A DECREASING TREND TONIGHT WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING. AS WINDS DIMINISH...WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL BE STRONGEST WITH A VERY PRONOUNCED SURFACE
INVERSION DEVELOPING.

A NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE IS EXPECTED WITH MANY AREAS HOLDING STEADY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...FAR INLAND AREAS MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS MORNING BEFORE RECOVERING BACK INTO
THE LOWER 40S. ALONG THE COAST...A FEW SPOTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
THIS MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR OFFSHORE MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.
TONIGHT...LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND ANY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY FREEZE NEAR DAYBREAK WHERE TEMPS DROP TO FREEZING
WELL INLAND. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...UPPER 30S MAY BE MOST
COMMON.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEEKEND WITH
ESSENTIALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE ONLY CHANGES WITH AN
ABBREVIATED FORECAST SESSION HAVE BEEN TO RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY TO MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...DUE TO THE ONGOING STORM SYSTEM...THE
EXTENDED FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATE SUN
INTO MON FOLLOWED BY BRIEF WEAK COLD ADVECTION. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUD AS THE FRONT PASSES BUT LACK OF DYNAMICS
AND DEEPER MOISTURE KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES CLOSE TO ZERO.
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE
CLIMO...SHOWING JUST HOW WEAK THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SUN
NIGHT FRONT IS.

DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A COMPLEX
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS MID WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
CLIMO TUE AND WED. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED WED AND THU AS
COMPLEX SYSTEM IMPACTS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MID LEVEL
PATTERN...MAINLY LATER IN THE PERIOD...BOTH MAINTAIN ELEVATED PRECIP
CHANCES WED. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS THE AMOUNT OF AMPLIFICATION
WED/THU AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
HAS IMPLICATIONS ON THE POP FORECAST FOR THU. ECMWF SOLUTION IS
SLOWER AND PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH THU. INHERITED FORECAST CARRIED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POP FOR THU AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN ON D7 WILL
NOT MAKE CHANGES. EITHER SOLUTION ENDS UP WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW
CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH AS EXPECTED THE
WEAKER/FASTER GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMS THIS MORNING
WITH CIGS HOVERING AROUND 1KFT AT MOST SITES. DESPITE THE CURRENT
LULL IN PCPN ON RADAR...MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CIGS LINGERING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...MAKING THE AVIATION FCST A BIT MORE CHALLENGING. BUT
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS KEPT WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS FROM
PERSISTING SO FAR TODAY...SO WOULD EXPECT MVFR CIGS 1-1.5KFT TO
PREVAIL WITH TEMPO IFR THIS MORNING. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS TONIGHT. AS
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME AOB 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...PATCHES OF
MVFR/IFR FOG WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ABOUT
75 MILES ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER. THE PRESSURE HAS
DROPPED TO 1001 MB. THE STRONG GALE IS BEGINNING TO ABATE AND WILL
REPLACE IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS
ONLY AT THIS TIME. THE GALE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM WHERE WINDS MAY STILL GUST UPWARDS OF
45 KT. SEAS PEAKED DURING THE NIGHT...BUT WILL STILL BE 10 TO 15
FT THIS MORNING...SLOWLY SUBSIDING FIRST AND MOST SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH TODAY...EVEN ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WHERE THE WIND COMPONENT IS MORE NORTH.
THE GRADIENT WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY RELAX AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY PULLS NORTH ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND THEN
MORE SEAWARD TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH SEAS BEING THE LAST TO
FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...ABBREVIATED FORECAST SESSION DUE TO ACTIVE
WEATHER. FORTUNATELY CWF FOR THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET.
MAIN FEATURES WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
FRONT SUNDAY. ESSENTIALLY TEN KNOTS OR LESS OF WIND SATURDAY
INCREASING PRE AND POST FRONTAL SUNDAY. NO CHANGES TO SIGNIFICANT
SEAS FORECAST.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...DUE TO THE ONGOING STORM SYSTEM...THE EXTENDED
FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED FROM THUR DAY AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW SUN WILL BECOME NORTHWEST SUN NIGHT FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT. DURATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
SHORT AND LACK OF COLD ADVECTION OR PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT. WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST LATER MON AND MON
NIGHT AS WEAK BUT LARGE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...ENOUGH TO PUSH SPEEDS INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE.
LATE IN THE PERIOD GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP AS SYSTEM TO THE
WEST APPROACHES. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES BUT ON THE HIGH END OF
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT SUN AND MON BUILD BY A FOOT
OR SO FOR TUE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR 8 FT BREAKERS. WAVE HEIGHTS AT SOME OF THE
OFFSHORE BUOYS REACHED 20 FT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TO
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION INTO THIS MORNING WITH THE WORST OF IT
LIKELY ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR COAST. THERE IS LIMITED OBSERVATIONAL
DATA...BUT WE DID EXCEED 6 FT...MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD...AT
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE IS AROUND
NOON. AT THAT TIME...THE LOW WILL BE SITUATED ABOUT 140 MILES E OF
THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR. THIS WILL PUT US ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WITH WINDS MORE N THAN NE. THE RAIN WILL ALSO BE MORE
SPORADIC AT THAT TIME. THESE FACTORS SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE THE
RISK OF RENEWED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY BEACHES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS TO DETERMINE WHETHER A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. A MODEST BLOWOUT TIDE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE EVENING LOW
TIDE...6 TO 7 PM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ054-
     056.

NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ105>110.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ106-
     108-110.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ254-256.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-252.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD