Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 300018 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 818 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to bring oppressive heat and humidity to the region through Saturday. The high will begin to break down beginning Sunday. A cold front will drop slowly across the area Tuesday into Wednesday bringing good chances for thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures will follow for the middle and end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 700 PM Friday...A cluster of showers and a few thunderstorms continues to hold together as it moves east across the Pee Dee this eve. This activity is in association with the inland trough and ahead of a weak mid-level shortwave. The high resolution HRRR model is showing this activity becoming less organized by late eve, with perhaps a few showers making it to the Cape Fear area overnight. We have adjusted POPs accordingly. It will be another warm night with temps not expected to drop below 80 in many areas until after midnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Friday...The heat indices will kick back up above advisory levels once again on Saturday. It appears the atlantic ridge may push back toward the northwest a bit with heights rising a bit and 850 temps up a couple of degrees, mainly eastern two thirds of area. Temps should reach the mid 90s for highs. Therefore we will once again issue heat advisories mainly I-95 corridor east where dewpoint temps will increase as aftn sea breeze draws atlantic moisture inland. The main focus for convection will be along Piedmont trough and along sea breeze boundary. The overall chance for convection will increase and may decrease the overall length of heat advisory, but for now, have issued it from noon to 8 pm. some needed rain and may temper some of the heat. By Sunday, Atlantic ridge gets pushed south and east a little farther as mid to upper trough makes a little headway east. The fight between the ridge and trough will be tricky in delineating the area of greater convective potential. Overall expect moisture to increase through the atmosphere and greater potential for convection mainly along Piedmont trough inland and sea breeze boundary. This should also keep temps from reaching heat advisory criteria with greater amount of clouds and shwrs/tstms. Temps should reach into the low to mid 90s on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...Significant airmass change occurs...finally as the calendar flips to August. The tremendous heat and humidity through which we have been suffering will persist one last day Monday with highs in the 90s and high humidity once again, but a return to seasonable or even slightly below normal temps is forecast by mid week. The cause of this change is a sharp mid-level trough driving a cold front through the Carolinas Tuesday and Wednesday. Guidance is in agreement this front will slow across the area, but eventually will sink south of the region on Wednesday as the upper ridge breaks down. Guidance can frequently be too aggressive and quick with the breakdown of these ridges, so will lean on the slower solution and dissipate the front Wednesday just south of the area to blend with inherited, but much cooler temperatures are forecast Tue/Wed/Thu with a slow return to warmer temperatures possible late in the period. Along with these cooler temperatures, tstms should become more numerous Monday night through Wednesday associated with the fropa, decreasing back to seasonable POP at the end of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 00Z...Still quite the dry atmosphere across the region. Latest KLTX 88D showed a few echoes with decent return move across FLO during the past 45 minutes...with ASOS indicating ts with light pcpn via the 10sm vsby. Will indicate VCTS for LBT and possibly CRE and/or MYR depending on the strength of this activity at press time. The sea breeze may provide a brief flare-up when this activity encounters it during the next 1 to 2 hrs but should die out quickly there-after. The remainder of the night will see winds drop to aob 3 kt due to the lack of a low level jet which has been a mainstay for the past 4 nights. Even the coastal terminals will see winds drop to 5 kt or less overnight. This may bring up the possibility of fog. For now, will leave fog out, but will watch the local terminals for any rain occurrence. For daytime Saturday, instability will increase by midday and the FA will be under a weak or non-existent convective lid. As a result, convection may begin firing up by mid-afternoon and continue well into the evening. At this point, placed a PROB30 group for all terminals to identify this possibility. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening convection each day may result in localized MVFR/IFR conditions. Each morning may also observe brief MVFR/IFR from fog and/or low ceilings. Otherwise...expect VFR at all other times.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 700 PM Friday...No apparent nocturnal jetting tonight. Southwest breezes will begin to abate late this eve as temp differential between land and water relaxes. Sustained SW winds will be on the order of 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late eve and overnight. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Friday...The Bermuda High and Piedmont trough will continue to be main players with a SW wind 10 to 15 knots through much of the period. As mid to upper trough pushes a cold front into North Carolina Sun night the gradient should tighten and winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots. Seas will remain 2 to 4 feet through the period. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...Bermuda high pressure remains dominant one last day Monday before a mid- level trough drives a slow moving cold front across the waters through mid-week. This causes a wind shift, so after 10-15 kts of SW winds on Monday, the gradient becomes diffuse as the front drops south and weakens, with winds gradually becoming NE at 5-10 kts by Wednesday. Highest seas will be Monday with the SE swell and SW wind wave producing 3-4 ft seas. Wave heights will fall slowly Tuesday, and then down to 2-3 ft Wednesday with a confused spectrum likely as a NE wind wave develops atop the residual SE swell. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for SCZ032-033- 039-053>056. NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ099- 105>110. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DCH

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