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774
FXUS62 KILM 251857
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
257 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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Hurricane Maria is expected to remain offshore and move slowly
north, with its center passing about 250 miles east of Cape
Fear Tuesday night. Dangerous beach and marine conditions will
prevail through mid-week. A cold front should reach the area
late Thursday, bringing cooler and drier air into next weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Monday...Conditions will change very little during
the near term period. The slow movement of hurricane Maria will
continue to bring mostly to partly cloudy skies with breezy
conditions and little chance for rain. There will be more cloud
cover along coastal areas with closer proximity to the lumbering
storm. I adjusted tonight`s overnight lows up a degree or two
based on a mixed boundary layer. The clouds have certainly held
today`s highs in check and with similar conditions expected
Tuesday, I walked back highs considerably.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 3 PM Monday...Hurricane Maria will likely weaken into a
Tropical Storm through mid-week as she moves north along and
east of the NC coast. Maria will be distant enough to prevent
any significant impacts locally although gusty north winds are
likely Tuesday night through Wednesday, along with periods of
clouds. However, beginning the latter half of Wednesday the CWA
will be within the subsident region around Maria, noted by
drying and subsidence in time-heights, creating abnormally warm
temperatures and decreasing cloudiness the second half of the
short term. A few isolated showers are possible along the Cape
Fear coast Tuesday night, but this will end by Wednesday with no
further precip forecast thanks to most of the moisture
remaining offshore. As winds begin to ease late Wednesday, there
will be very little indication locally that a tropical storm is
in the vicinity unless you are at the beaches to see the waves.
Increasing sunshine and subsidence will drive temps to near 90
Wednesday, just short of record highs for the date, with mins
both nights above 70, more than 10 degrees above normal for late
September.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Monday...Subsidence in the wake of Maria and pre-
frontal warming will lead to one more day of above-average
temperatures before a cooling trend commences. A consensus of
guidance gives us highs of around 90 on Thursday. A cold front
will move offshore later on Thursday, bringing us near to well-
below normal temperatures by Friday, with cool weather
continuing into the weekend. The cold front will come through
dry, although isolated to widely scattered showers are possible
along the coast Friday night into Saturday as a strong upper
disturbance dips SE across the mid-Atlantic states.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1800Z...MVFR conditions reside at the coastal terminals
while inland sites are mostly VFR. This will continue to be the
pattern through the period as the broad circulation around Maria
will advect deeper moisture in along the coast. Guidance has the
coastal sites going down into IFR tonight and I followed this
with several hours starting at 03 UTC. Ceilings gradually lift
Tuesday with MVFR developing once again along the coast.

Extended Outlook...Conditions will improve from mid week on as
Marie moves further away.

&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Rough and tumble conditions will continue
through the period for the coastal waters. Little change is
expected with north to northeast winds of 20-25 knots.
Significant seas will remain elevated as well. Will continue the
High Surf Advisory and the Small Craft Advisory. The strongest
winds of the period will occur early Tuesday across AMZ 250
possibly just above the 20-25 knot range for a couple of hours.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Gusty N/NW winds will slowly ease through
the period as Hurricane Maria moves slowly well east of the NC
coast. Winds Tuesday night will be N at 15-25 kts, highest
AMZ250, before slowly easing to 10-15 kts Wed night from the NW.
While these winds are mostly offshore and thus create only a
limited wind wave amplitude, large swell from Maria at 4-5 ft/12
sec combined with the wind wave will create large seas and an
SCA remains in effect through 8pm Wednesday evening. Wave
heights Tuesday night will be 6- 9 ft, with some 10 fters
possible in the far NE waters, before falling slowly through
Wednesday to 3-5 ft, and then 2-4 ft at the end of the period.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Expect gradually improving conditions over
the waters as Maria moves well northeast into the central
Atlantic and a weak pressure gradient takes its place. Do not
expect any warnings or advisories during the long term. Highest
winds and seas will be on Thursday for our NC coastal waters,
with 10 to 15 kt winds and 3 to 5 ft seas. These conditions will
improve, with seas in the 2 to 4 ft range and winds of only
around 10 kts throughout by evening.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for SCZ054-056.
     High Surf Advisory until 9 PM EDT Tuesday for SCZ054-056.
NC...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for NCZ106-108-
     110.
     High Surf Advisory until 9 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NCZ107.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...REK
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...REK/JDW/SHK