Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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068 FXUS62 KILM 140512 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1212 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM REACHES THE AREA...COLD AIR LOCKED IN ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 1215 AM SUNDAY...TEMPS A LITTLE SLOW TO FALL DURING THE EVENING DUE TO ONGOING MIXING...BUT IT IS STILL QUITE CHILLY OUT THERE WITH READINGS NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST PLACES. HAVE NUDGED UP OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A DEGREE...BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE LATEST ISSUANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...AS CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS PAN-OUT THIS EVENING WITH MANY LOCALS ALREADY AT SUB- FREEZING AT 02Z/9PM. WIND-CHILLS IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER 20S CURRENTLY...WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS LATER THIS EVENING...AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -10C TO -13C RANGE. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING CORRELATE TO LOWS IN THE MID TEENS. LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 850 TEMP SCHEMES WHEN CONSIDERING A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...FOUS DATA...AND THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS. ON TOP OF THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY SUN MORNING. LATEST FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH IS 5 DEGREES. SO FOR NOW HAVE NO PLANS TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN FORECAST OR WINDS A COUPLE MPH HIGHER COULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 5 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BLADEN...ROBESON...AND MARLBORO COUNTIES. AS FAR AS RECORDS GO IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN OR TIED TONIGHT. THE ONLY SITE WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF SEEING A RECORD TIED WOULD BE NORTH MYRTLE BEACH. RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14: WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/17F FORECAST FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/18F FORECAST NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/19F FORECAST
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT WEDGES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS WEDGING. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENING LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON...BUT WHAT THEY MAY BE DOING IN ERROR...IS BRINGING THE TROUGH INLAND TOO QUICKLY AND DISLODGING THE WEDGE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM AND ARW SEEM TO HAVE A MUCH MORE REALISTIC DEPICTION. THUS EXPECT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR TO HANG ON LONGER INLAND MON. THIS WILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE ON MON AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. DRY AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO HANG ON BELOW 800 FT SUN NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO EVAPORATE PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUN AND THEN THICKEN SUN NIGHT. CLOUDS SUN NIGHT ALONG WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE COAST. COLDEST INLAND SPOTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. TEMPS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE A DEGREE OR TWO AS WE APPROACH MON MORNING. AS THE PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT MON MORNING...WE EXPECT IT WILL BE ALL RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY EYF TO DILLON TO JUST NORTH OF THE FLORENCE-DARLINGTON COUNTY LINE...WE WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHERE GROUND TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE BELOW FREEZING AFTER THIS ARCTIC BLAST. ACCRETION IN THIS AREA IS FORECAST...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE LIGHT...A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. AS THE PRECIPITATION GROWS STEADIER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WARMS THE COLUMN AND ERODES THE LAST OF THE WEDGE...MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WE EXPECT LIQUID RAIN THROUGHOUT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MON AND MON NIGHT MAY REACH UP TO AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH MORE RAIN ON TUE. HIGHS SUN SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...JUST MID AND UPPER 30S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWEST TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND IMMEDIATE COAST. AGAIN...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RISE OVERNIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT TEMP GRADIENT IS EXPECTED MON WITH HIGHS NEAR THE COAST IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. AS YOU MOVE BACK INTO THE COLDER AIR... HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID 40S AND IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE TO GET THERE AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MORNING FOR THE NW TIER. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE BALMY BY RECENT COMPARISONS...MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AS SOUTHERLY WINDS HOLD AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE N-NE ON TUESDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER VA IN THE MORNING WITH DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY VEERING AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE WEST. THE SATURATED COLUMN IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD TUES MORNING BUT WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTN FROM WEST TO EAST. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER EARLY TUES TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE AND POSSIBLY HEAVIER RAIN. ESSENTIALLY WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH LATE TUES BUT WINDS WILL BACK A BIT AND MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS PASS ACROSS THE AREA AS ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLIPS BY TO OUR NORTH TUES NIGHT. LATEST MODELS KEEP ALL PCP WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF AREA. THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH LEAVING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON WED. ANOTHER BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST ALLOWING DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THURS INTO FRI. AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST SOME DEEPER COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THURS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPS FOR THURS BEFORE HEIGHT RISES WILL KICK 850 TEMPS BACK UP FOR FRI INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT UNSEASONABLE WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON THURS. GUIDANCE SHOWING TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S MOST DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ON FRI AND WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP WITH THIS FRONT BUT MAY SEE INCREASED CLOUDS AND SOME COOLING BEHIND IT. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL VEER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1215 AM SUNDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST NEEDED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED AND BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT THINK IT WILL DO SO. AS A RESULT WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SCA FOR ALL ZONES. COMBINATION OF TIGHTENED GRADIENT AS ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES BUILDING IN AND MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE HIGHER END OF THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT...LOWEST ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUN AS THE CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD...REACHING THE MID- ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO E AND SE AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SUN NIGHT. SE WINDS WILL VEER TO S DURING MON WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROUGH AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. S WINDS WILL PERSIST MON NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO AROUND 15 KT SUN MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT DURING MON WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS MON NIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WHERE WATER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT MIXING. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT SUN MORNING...DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT SUN AFTERNOON AND TO 2 FT OR LESS SUN NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BUILD RAPIDLY MON AND MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 6 TO 9 FT MON NIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WHERE MIXING WILL BE GREATEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MON AND MON NIGHT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY TUES WILL WEAKEN AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE W AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH TUES. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE ONGOING TUES MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 8 TO 10 FT. WINDS WILL VEER AS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A STRONGER WESTERLY OFF SHORE FLOW TO KEEP HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY TUES AFTN. WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS IT DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WED MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SLIP BY TO THE NORTH BUT OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND FROM THE NW TO N BASICALLY REMAINING 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WED DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY THURS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RJD NEAR TERM...REK/III SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...SGL MARINE...REK/RJD/III/RGZ

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