Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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386 FXUS62 KILM 010234 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1034 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A stationary front will waver along the coast through this weekend, with shower and thunderstorm chances becoming confined to the immediate coast. Weak high pressure will build in with drier weather forecast early next week. Hurricane Matthew will move into the Bahamas by Wednesday, bringing increasing waves and a heightened rip current risk to the beaches.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1030 PM Friday...The surface cold front moved less than 100 miles over the past 24 hours and is now located from just east of Charleston, SC up through Marion, Sc to just west of Lumberton, NC. The boundary should get a gentle shove to the east tonight as surface pressures rise by 1-2 millibars across Georgia and western South Carolina. By late tonight the front should slip off the coast allowing westerly to northwesterly winds to develop around sunrise Saturday morning. Elevated instability as high as 1000 J/kg continues to exist along the coast. Although no substantial upper disturbances are progged to rotate across the area overnight, southerly flow off the very warm Atlantic could always bring in an isolated convective cluster overnight. One tiny shower has recently developed near Orton Plantation in eastern Brunswick County, indicating the airmass aloft still has enough moisture to support at least an isolated shower. Focus should primarily be on new development over the coastal waters overnight. Low-level wind speeds are not particularly impressive this evening, and this adds an interesting wrinkle to the forecast. When a weak synoptic front moves in at night when the boundary layer is strongly decoupled, any airmass change or wind shift with the front can be absent within the boundary layer. This means surface temperature/dewpoint/wind speeds may not show change with the front, although conditions 500 or 1,000 feet aloft may change more abruptly. Also, with drying conditions aloft but plenty of boundary layer moisture remaining, patchy fog is in the forecast. Radiational cooling will become quite good, especially away from the clouds in coastal SE North Carolina overnight, and lows should fall to 58-61 near and west of I-95. Lows near the coast will remain significantly warmer, perhaps even near 70 at the beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM Friday...Similar pattern Saturday and Sunday but the moisture plume looks to shift slightly eastward, potentially pushing the bulk of deeper moisture offshore. Still with heating in the 80s and the plume edge streaming S to N along or near the coast, expect isolated showers or a storm remains possible for eastern zones. Far interior zones are apt to experience very nice and mild early fall weather free of precipitation, with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows around 60. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 PM Friday...Into next week, a ridge of high pressure will build in along the eastern seaboard as a closed upper low moves into the New England area on Monday. However, low level moisture remains available across portions of the area, and thus have kept the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms throughout the period, mainly along the coast. Otherwise, conditions will remain fairly quiet with periods of cloud cover. In regards to Hurricane Matthew, now a major hurricane, the track remains uncertain at this time as disagreement between the latest guidance continues. For this forecast package, will keep with the potential for local marine areas to observe affects from this system, as we continue to monitor this system closely. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 00Z...The bulk of the showers and storms have ended for the night, though there remains the small possibility of a shower or storm at coastal terminals tonight. That chance is about 1 in 5 so shra will not be included in the terminals. Of bigger concern for tonight may be lingering low level moisture with drier air aloft working in from the west. This could allow for the development of stratus and fog, especially at the coastal terminals. For now, fog has been left out of MYR and CRE where southerly winds of 5 to 10 kt could preclude its development but stratus is possible. It is also possible that LBT could see a little MVFR fog unless lower dewpoints work in from the south and west soon. After sunrise, conditions should become VFR by 15Z. There is a 1 in 5 chance of showers and storms again, mainly along the coast. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Primarily VFR. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers through much the period, although limited in strength and coverage due to dry air aloft. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 PM Friday...The actual surface cold front is still inland, extending from just east of Charleston, SC to near Marion, SC and Lumberton, NC. South winds 10-12 kt will turn more westerly late tonight as the front slides off the coast. By daybreak Saturday wind directions may actually be northwesterly at the beaches -- when`s the last time we saw that? Seas are currently 2-3 feet west of Frying Pan Shoals, and around 4 feet along and east of Frying Pan Shoals, mainly in a 5-6 second wind wave. There is also a small contribution from an 11-second easterly swell. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible overnight, especially after midnight as the front approaches the coast. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM Friday...A manageable marine period with winds mainly light, S on Saturday becoming N-NE Sunday afternoon over the waters. Wave heights will increase a foot or two Sunday as SE swell waves arrive from Matthew, in 11-13 second intervals. Isolated showers and TSTMS this period so radar updates are recommended. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 PM Friday...North-northeasterly winds will continue through the period, increasing to around 15 to 20 kts Tuesday into Wednesday. Wednesday evening, winds increase to around 25 kts. As for seas, 2 to 4 ft on Monday will increase to 4 to 6 ft, especially in the outer waters. Things may change as we continue to monitor the track of Hurricane Matthew, but will continue to monitor swell from the system.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...SGL AVIATION...RAN

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