Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 231714 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 114 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE THURSDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL ARRIVE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY...AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 114 PM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO BUMP-UP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES NEAR THE COAST IN OFFSHORE AND DOWN-SLOPED WIND FLOW. OTHERWISE ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE PROMISES TO BRING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DRY AIR SHOULD HEAT UP EFFICIENTLY AS IT BATTLES A PUSH OF COLDER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE N. GIVEN FULL SUN...WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WELL MIXED TODAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVELY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. HAVE REISSUED THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR NORTH CAROLINA TO ADDRESS INCREASED FIRE DANGER AS FUELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD SURGE MAY KEEP WINDS ELEVATED FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. ANY ELEVATED WINDS WOULD HELP TO COUNTER THE CLEAR SKIES...THUS PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM DEVELOPING OR AT LEAST SHORTENING ITS DURATION. WILL CAP LOWS NEAR 40 IN OUR COLDEST...WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...MID AND UPPER 40S WILL BE MOST COMMON. THIS IS A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH ON THURS WITH VERY LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. SHOULD SEE WINDS COME AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH THURS AFTN ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE UNDER STRENGTHENING LATE APRIL SUN. THIS ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST REACHING AROUND 70 BUT INLAND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO CREEP UP BUT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS LIMITED CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI WITH DEEPER S-SW RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WILL TAP INTO COMBINED ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL CREATE INCREASING CLOUDS AND GREATER CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS LATER ON FRI. PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH FRI AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH UP CLOSER TO 80 WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS REACHING UP AROUND 60 FRI AFTN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SATURDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE AND RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT. GFS SHOWS SECONDARY FRONT OR BOUNDARY MOVING DOWN FOR SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT A DRIER WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST WITH TIME...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE EAST. THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT FRONT TO THE SOUTH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WHILE LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH TUES NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS BY LATE TUES AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TO START REACHING AROUND OR INTO THE 80S BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S BEHIND COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. TODAY WILL REMAIN SUNNY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z THURSDAY AS WINDS BECOME N-NE AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP US CLOUD-FREE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THE DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO OUR AREA BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THEN OFFSHORE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 15-18Z...REMAINING AOB 10 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY. VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 114 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVED OFFSHORE AND IN ITS WINDS NW. THERE WILL BE A MODEST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY...TO THE NNE AT THAT TIME. SEAS MAY BUMP UP A FOOT OR SO WITH THE MORNING SURGE...BUT GIVEN PREVAILING FLOW AT THAT TIME...WILL CAP AT 3 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE NORTH SHIFTING CLOSER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON THURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BUT IT WILL START INCREASING OUT OF THE S TO SW FRI AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE SW TO W THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3 FT UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON THURS WITH A BIT MORE CHOP IN SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST. AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI EVE IN S-SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF SECONDARY BOUNDARY OR COLD FRONT. EXPECT W WINDS TO BACK TO THE SW AND LIGHTEN TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT. EXPECT NORTHERLY SURGE UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A RISE IN WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS UP TO 3 TO 4 FT.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...BJR/MJC

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