Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 281930 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 329 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO CAP SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR WHERE HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON. A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC. ISOLATED ACTIVITY HOWEVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR INLAND SE NC NEAR I-95 AND ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING IS OCCURRING PRIOR TO BETTER MID-LVL DRYING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE WILL REMAIN N AND W OF OUR AREA INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO OR DARLINGTON COUNTY. LOWER DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUMS WILL RESULT AS WELL...DIPPING TO 63-66 INLAND...64-68 CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... PATTERN CHANGES TAKING SHAPE ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY THE LIGHT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TAKING ON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY. WITH THESE FACTORS TAKING SHAPE SO GRADUALLY SUNDAY STILL LIKELY ONLY BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES. PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HELPED INCREASED MOISTURE THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT BEING PUSHED BY THE NORTHERN BRANCH MAY INTERACT WITH. AND WHILE THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD STILL SAG INTO THE AREA FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HELP FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. RATHER, THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO CUT OFF AND STALL. OF NOTE THIS TROUGH MAY BE INSTRUMENTAL BEYOND THE LONG TERM SETTING THE STAGE FOR HYBRID OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN GOMEX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...VFR/SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. PER KLTX RADAR SHOWERS ARE DECREASING NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS AND DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE NW. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR MODEL IT APPEARS THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF VCSH AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING...WINDS SLOWLY DROP BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS. AFTER 08Z MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBYS APPEAR MOST LIKELY. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTM DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED ....BUT LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BR POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH MID MORNING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7-8 SECONDS. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MAY DOT THE WATERS...BUT ANY ENCROACHMENT OVER THE 0-20NM WATERS FROM THE EAST WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE CONTINUED GRADUAL RETREAT OF WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW VEERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE SEAS ALTHOUGH THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE FETCH MAY DECREASE THE SWELL ENERGY. THIS WILL BE SLIGHT HOWEVER AND MAY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SMALL DECREASE IN WAVE PERIOD RATHER THAN PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...31 LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR/8

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.