Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 162009 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 309 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warming trend will occur Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a cold front which will drop south through the Carolinas late Wednesday. Cooler and drier high pressure will follow on Thursday. Low pressure moving up from the Gulf coast will drag a warm front through the area on Friday. High pressure will build in on Saturday before another system brings unsettled weather for Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 300 PM Monday...Weak isentropic upglide will lead to a cloudy night but the ascent appears to be too weak and gently sloped to generate any precipitation. The temperature curve (which was troublesome this will be quite flat inland or even rise a bit overnight. Most guidance not really indicative as such again likely due to the weak nature of the thermal advection.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Monday...For as weak as the aforementioned near term warm advection is Tuesday will sure turn out a mild afternoon. This will be more a function of not being trapped under a deep and moist inversion. The moisture will not be completely eroded however as forecast soundings show some lingering moisture in the 3-5kft layer as well as above about 7500ft. The high level moisture in particular probably lingers Tuesday night and then low level moistening gets underway Wednesday compliments of approaching cold front. Timing differences with respect to the front are affecting temperature guidance with the slower WRF allowing for an even warmer afternoon than the quicker GFS. Stayed closer to the lower values due in part to support from the EC. Any significant rainfall will stay north of the area underneath the upper trough though a few sprinkles or stray hundredth of an inch or three cannot be ruled out locally.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Monday...Unsettled remains the operative word for the extended period courtesy of a highly amplified and shortwave laden pattern. The first significant system for the eastern Carolinas arrives late Thursday into early Friday via a shearing mid level system moving across the Tennessee and Ohio valleys. A weak occluded front is paired with this system as is a stationary front to the south but these have little impact on the sensible weather. Overall the inherited chance of showers still looks good. The second more potent system at least to this point arrives late Sunday into early Monday via a more powerful and closed shortwave traversing a similar path to the first system. This system continues to strengthen via the medium range guidance with good moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic. Combined with good difluence aloft the elements for a soaker are in place. Citing the dynamics, a high shear/low cape convective event is possible with plenty of details to be determined in the coming days. The temperature forecast has shown little change with the latest guidance and with a moisture laden period (even outside of pops plenty of cloud cover) there shouldn`t be much diurnal variation. Expect highs generally in the 60s and lows in the middle to upper 40s with some areas (generally coastal and southern) not dipping below 50.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 18Z...Cold front sagged back to the south overnight, and wedge of high pressure currently exists down the Carolinas. The front appears to be easily identifiable on satellite at the sharp demarcation between clear and stratus, but the terminals will remain socked into stratus today and tonight. While terminals closer to the front, mainly FLO, will remain IFR all day, the other sites should break into MVFR as slightly drier air advects down from the NE on winds of 5-10 kts. Any improvement is expected to be short lived, with IFR and LIFR re-developing in stratus overnight. With little change in the pattern through Tuesday, stratus is again expected to persist well into Tuesday before slowly eroding late as winds become more W/SW Tuesday aftn. Extended Outlook...Cold front Wednesday, accompanied with showers and MVFR. Showers possible Friday. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...Winds to grow lighter all night as high to our north lifts out and frontal boundary advances northward. There may be some variability in wind direction late in the period as a light southerly flow component tries to get established. Seas will average 2 to 3 ft. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...With the warm front lifted out to our north on Tuesday the gradient will remain quite weak. SW flow will be capped at just 10kt and seas may drop to just 2 ft. The approach of a cold front will veer and increase the flow gradually Tuesday night and then moreso Wednesday. This front may pass through either midday or late afternoon Wednesday. The cooler surge behind this boundary is tempered enough that no headlines likely follow its passage. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...Expect essentially light and variable winds Thursday via a weak pressure pattern. Wind fields will show a little better definition late Thursday into Friday as a southwest flow develops ahead of a weak front. Speeds increase briefly to 10-15 knots. By Saturday a weak northerly flow develops. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet as the weak wind fields and fetch change keep them somewhat in check.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...JDW

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