Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KILM 270603
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
202 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Above normal temperatures will prevail much of the upcoming
week as high pressure offshore brings southerly winds. A series
of low pressure systems will bring a chance of rain Monday into
Tuesday, and again late next week. A cooling trend is expected
into next weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 930 PM Sunday...Band of light showers has been
dissipating as it tracks eastward across the ILM NC CWA this
evening. Not much left of it but will include a whopping 15% for
the next hour 2. Otherwise, have kept the remainder of the night
pcpn-free. Will have to deal with some leftover moisture in the
low to mid levels in the form of stratocu and altocu across the
inland areas. This moisture will scour a good deal by the time
it reaches the ILM CWA coast. As a result, looking at partly
cloudy skies inland and could become mostly clear along the
immediate coast. Have slightly expanded the patchy fog for the
pre-dawn hours but held off with any dense. Sfc ridging across
the area from the high`s center offshore from NC and continued
ridging aloft from the eastern Gulf of Mexico has continued the
overall subsidence across the FA thru tonight. Look for the
upper ridge axis to slide off the SE US Coast on Mon allowing
more clouds to infiltrate from the west as well as increasing
chances for pcpn Mon night.
As of 230 PM Sunday...Once again, a warm southerly flow has allowed
temperatures to rise in the mid and even upper 70s most places with
60s at the beaches. A diurnal cu field has formed, not as extensive
as yesterday, as ample low level moisture advection continues off of
the ocean. A few very light returns have appeared on radar but no
ground truth of any precip actually touching the ground yet.
Considering the very dry air aloft and lack of triggers, will be
keeping pops today below mentionable levels.
For tonight a light southerly flow will continue with high pressure
dominating the western Atlantic. Lows will be in the mid 50s for
Model soundings suggest another partly cloudy yet dry day as the
moist southerly low level flow continues around the western Atlantic
ridge. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the mid
to upper 70s most places. A few places will hit 80.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...Another in a series of dampening shortwaves
will move across the Tennessee Valley and Mid Atlantic region
through the period with a a cold front trailing at the surface.
We continue to advertise low chance pops for the daytime hours
Tuesday with slight chance either side of this to address any
timing issues. The front will cross the area in the early
morning hours of Wednesday. Thermal profiles look slightly
warmer than recent days with the southwest flow ahead of the
system. Depending on the amount of sunshine Tuesday, there could
be widespread 80s. Overnight lows remain entrenched in the 50s.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 4 AM Sunday...Brief high pressure intrusion via a back-
door cold front will bring a slightly cooler day on Thursday
with a lag of cooler air on Wednesday in wake of a frontal
crossing of the coast. Thursday morning lows may end up being
the coolest portion of the week, before warm air advection
cranks up again by Thursday night ahead of a potent southern
stream impulse. This system will offer the best rain chance of
late, and potentially a good soaking. Right now the amplified
nature of the shot-wave suggest a few strong to severe storms
cannot be ruled out late Thursday night into Friday. A few
showers may linger into Saturday beneath the cold pool of the
amplified trough, with drying and cooling through the day with
a cool morning lows in the 40s Sunday.
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 06Z...VFR conditions will dominate this period, with the
exception of the pre-dawn Mon 09z thru 13Z when MVFR conditions
are possible due to BR. Have included a PROB30 for SHRA for LBT
and FLO in aftn. Did not include pcpn for the coastal
terminals. Sfc high centered offshore from the Carolinas, will
ridge back to the WSW across Carolinas. Winds will start out
from the SE-S tonight and veer to the S-SW during Mon 0 to 4 kt
overnight and 5 to 10 kt thru Mon aftn. Coastal terminals will
see gusts to 15 kt due to the sea breeze Mon aftn.
Extended outlook...MVFR and IFR conditions possible in a few
bouts of showers and thunderstorms late Mon night through Tue
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 930 PM Sunday...The sfc ridge axis from the High`s center
offshore from NC extends west across Cape Fear to Columbia SC.
This ridge axis will drop south and east late tonight thru Mon.
This will result in wind directions veering from SE-S tonight to
S to SSW on Mon and likely SW thruout Mon night. The sfc pg will
remain somewhat loose tonight thru Mon, resulting with wind
speeds around 10 kt. Could see 10-15 kt near shore during the
sea breeze activity on Mon. Significant seas 2 to 4 ft tonight
thru Mon. The 9 second period SE ground swell will dominate the
seas spectrum during this period.
As of 230 PM Sunday...A light south to south-easterly flow of
around 10 kts will continue through the near term as high
pressure continues its hold over the western Atlantic. Winds
near shore this afternoon and Monday afternoon will be a little
bit higher, in the 10 to 15 kt range, and gustier as the
afternoon sea-breeze circulation sets up. Seas will remain right
around the 3 ft range through the period.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...Very light winds from the south, southeast
initially will become better defined through the day Tuesday as a
cold front approaches from the west. Not the most overpowering flow
however as speeds increase to 15-20 knots briefly before backing off
Tuesday evening as the front loses some of its identity. Significant
seas will increase from initial 2-4 foot values to 3-5 feet Tuesday
afternoon and evening with the increase in winds.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
as of 4 AM Sunday...Light winds Wednesday in wake of a cold
front can be expected, followed by a wind-shift to the N_NE
Wednesday night as a back door cold front pushes across the 0-20
NM waters. Briefly this intrusion will transition to light wind
as the high moves overhead Thursday afternoon. A strong and
progressive southern system will bring increasing SE-S winds
late Thursday and an Advisory may very well be needed for 25 KT
gusts late Thursday night ahead of its cold front. Strong storms
and numerous showers appear likely on the water Friday.