Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 041424 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1024 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOLLOWED BY UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...12Z CHS SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE MID 90S INDICATES THE AIRMASS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES REACH THE 2000-2500 J/KG WITH LI TO -6C. THE COLUMN IS A LITTLE DRIER TODAY THAN 24 HOURS AGO AS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS DOWN TO ABOUT 1.6 INCHES. SOME OF THAT DRIER AIR SHOULD MIX DOWN TODAY AND DEWPOINTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S. HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND VARIOUS OUTFLOW THAT DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY IN A 20-30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT WILL COME INTO PLAY AFTER 06Z.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...MID/UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER TX AND NEW ENGLAND SUPPORTS A BROAD BUT WEAK TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RESULT. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BRINGING COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LOWER LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH HARD TO PIN- POINT IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED POPS MOST LOCATIONS. THERE COULD BE A LULL DURING SATURDAY AS THE GFS SUGGESTS A SLUG OF LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. AFTERWARDS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REBOUND FOR SUNDAY WILL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MAV/MET NUMBERS FOR THE HIGHS EACH DAY...WHICH NEAR OR JUST BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION THE LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD TROUGH AT 500MB SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN DURING MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER MONDAY...GETTING BACK ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BY TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOME DRYING BY MID- WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...EXCEPT FOR SOME TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KLBT THROUGH 13Z AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS 14-17Z...PREDOMINATE VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE N-NE THIS MORNING LTE 7 KT. AS WINDS BECOME SE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A RESULTANT BOUNDARY JUST INLAND OF THE COAST. WILL NOT INCLUDE VCTS ATTM. AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND THERE WILL BE LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BUT AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR VCSH/VCTS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. BEST CONFIDENCE FOR TS WILL BE AT KLBT WHERE THE BOUNDARY SHOULD INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH. WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP IN THE KLBT TAF TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BY THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. WINDS SPEEDS SUGGEST VSBYS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR BUT CAN`T DISCOUNT SOME MVFR VSBYS ENTIRELY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES. TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR...IN MORNING FOG...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY TIME FRAME. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS REMAINS WEAK THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY INTO THE EVENING. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THE WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 15 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BY DAYBREAK. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE FAR OFFSHORE WILL SUPPORT A NORTHEASTERLY FETCH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS...TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS WILL AROUND 3 FT...TO 3-4 FT AT TIMES BY SATURDAY EVENING AWAY FROM THE COAST. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN AS THE SURFACE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN THE WIND WILL VEER TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION LATER IN THE DAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY MORNING WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN LATE TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...RGZ/CRM SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...MRR MARINE...

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