Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 061639 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1140 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 AM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CLEARING SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE AND CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT MUCH OF OUR INLAND AREAS WILL BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY NOON. THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SC ZONES...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITATION THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE DAY. THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF ANY ICE ON ROADWAYS SO THE HWO WILL INDICATE NO HAZARDS FOR TODAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3 AM FOLLOWS: LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT IS WELL OFFSHORE AND COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DRAIN SOUTHWARD AS 1039 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS COLD AIRMASS EXTENDS VERTICALLY UP TO ABOUT 4000 FEET AGL...TOPPED OFF BY YESTERDAY`S WARM MOIST AIRMASS STILL STREAMING OVERHEAD ON SOUTHWEST WINDS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO 32 DEGREES OR BELOW BY DAYBREAK ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE CITY THROUGH CONWAY TO NORTH MYRTLE BEACH. FORTUNATELY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY ENDED. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS NEUTRAL TO VERY WEAK UPGLIDE ALONG THE SATURATED 295K THETA SURFACE...APPROXIMATELY 6500 FEET AGL OR 800 MB...THROUGH ABOUT 8 AM. THIS COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SLEET SPRINKLE ACROSS COASTAL SE NORTH CAROLINA BUT WITH NO POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL TAKE THEIR TIME CLEARING ALONG THE COAST TODAY AS A BAND OF UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE AL/MS GULF COAST. THE I-95 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL ALMOST SUNSET FOR CLEARING TO ADVANCE DOWN TO THE BEACHES. WORKING IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH 39-42 NEAR THE COAST TODAY...WITH 41-44 EXPECTED FARTHER INLAND. TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DEVELOP. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL EXTEND DOWN TO JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE GROUND BY DAYBREAK PRODUCING A STRONG BUT INCREASINGLY SHALLOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION. MOS CONSENSUS LOOKS GOOD FOR LOWS WITH MID 20S FOR MOST AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY REACHING OFF SHORE BY SUN NIGHT. A VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL FLATTEN OUT SAT INTO SUNDAY...LEAVING A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL EXPECT A DRY WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CUTS OFF EARLY SATURDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND HEIGHTS RISING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO BRING TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL BY SUNDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL REBOUND NICELY IN BRIGHT MARCH SUNSHINE...FROM MID 20S UP TO THE MID 50S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT...WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 30S IN MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY TEMPS WILL JUMP BACK TO THE MID 60S IN A WEAK RETURN FLOW AND CONTINUED SUNSHINE. BY SUN NIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THROUGH TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH. AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALOFT IT WILL PRODUCE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST. SOME OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL ADVECT INTO THE CAROLINAS IN DEEPER W-SW FLOW ALOFT AS EARLY AS SUN NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAKING IT INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY BUT NOT COUNTING ON ANY PCP AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. PCP WATER VALUES WILL RISE FROM UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH SAT MORNING UP AROUND A HALF INCH BY SUN NIGHT AS SOME OF THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...IN THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN THROUGH TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL SHARPEN THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND PRODUCE AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. CLOUDS AND PCP WILL INCREASE THROUGH MON INTO TUES AS THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST RIDING ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE HINTING AS A WEAK WEDGE ON TUES WITH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST. AS THIS FIRST LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TUES NIGHT...THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN OVER THE WESTERN GULF KEEPING A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW WITH RIDGE BUILDING UP ALONG SE COAST. THIS MAY KEEP LINGERING BOUNDARY AND FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY MAINTAINING UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MAY HELP TO PUSH MOISTURE SOUTH AND DRY COLUMN OUT WED NIGHT INTO THURS...BUT MAY LEAVE SOME CLOUDS AND PCP TO CONVEY UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF PCP THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH OF A DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS...KEEPING READINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LOWS. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...SOME LEFTOVER STRATOCU...POST FRONTAL. MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE OUT OF HERE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. CONTINUE LIGHT WINDS ON SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER US. QUITE THE NICE DAY ACTUALLY...ALBEIT A COLD START. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR CONDITION WITH PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 AM FRIDAY...BUOY OBS SHOW WINDS NOW WELL BELOW GALE FORCE SO HAVE ALLOWED GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 10 AM. HAVE REPLACED THE WARNING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING THIS MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS UP TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE DAY EAST OF GEORGETOWN...AND INTO THIS EVENING EAST OF CAPE FEAR. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY REACHING OFF SHORE BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SAT INTO SUN...LESS THAN 10 KTS. THEREFORE SEAS WILL FALL STEADILY ON SAT FROM 2 TO 4 FT SAT MORNING DOWN TO LESS THAN 3 FT SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A PINCHED GRADIENT MAY DEVELOP THROUGH LATE MON INTO TUES AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON INLAND. THIS COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF RISE IN NE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AND SEAS UP NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS IN OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT MON INTO EARLY MORNING TUES. OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS MAINLY BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...REK/TRA SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DL MARINE...REK/TRA/RGZ

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