Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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495 FXUS62 KILM 200846 CCA AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 307 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm through much of the week. High pressure will slowly build across the area through Tuesday, shifting offshore Wednesday. A trough of low pressure will bring increased cloudiness and some showers mid week. Near record warmth will come Friday and Saturday with increasing chance of showers ahead of an approaching cold front Friday night into Saturday. Cooler and drier high pressure will build in behind the cold front Saturday night into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...Dry and unseasonably mild weather will continue through the near term as an elongated ridge centered well to the north in Canada slowly transits the region with high pressure building in aloft. A dry column means ample sun today. Model soundings do indicate some increase in cirrus overnight as the upper ridge axis moves east across the forecast area. A blend of guidance brings us highs in the lower to mid 70s today for most places with 60s at the beaches. Overnight lows mainly in the mid to upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...Expect increasing cloudiness from Tuesday afternoon onwards with the chances for showers increasing from the west in the early morning hours of Wednesday as an upper trough approaches and then moves across the eastern seaboard. Increasing cloud cover will help keep daytime temperatures on Tuesday a few degrees cooler than Monday. Approaching upper trough will only be reflected as a weak trough at the surface, but a substantial increase in deep layer moisture and adequate isentropic lift associated with the upper trough makes at least slight chance to low chance pops seem plausible well into Wednesday. Paltry dynamics means QPF will be kept on the minimal side. A weak WAA regime will develop on Wednesday, which should allow a bump in temperatures from Tuesday`s readings. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday...A deeper southerly return flow will develop around Atlantic high pressure as shortwave exits off the Southeast coast on Thursday. A very warm and moist air mass will be in place Thurs through Saturday. Dewpoint temps will increase to near 60 ahead of an approaching cold front late Fri into Saturday. Temperatures will reach near record warmth Fri and Saturday with readings up near 80. This will produce a fairly healthy sea breeze each afternoon and should see cu development and possible convection in this warm and moist air mass. The best chc of showers will come ahead of cold front as it approaches and moves through Fri night into Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF keep best shortwave energy with this system much farther north with actually show limited if any convection over the Carolinas with the cold front. The actual FROPA should take place later on Saturday. A complete change of air mass will take place as cooler and drier air advects in behind cold front Sat night into Sunday. Pcp water values up to 1.25 inches ahead of cold front will drop down around a quarter of an inch by Sun morning in a deep W-NW flow as high pressure builds in. Temperatures cool off into the mid 60s for Sunday which is still a few degrees above normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 06Z...High confidence in VFR through the valid period. Light northwest flow tonight. Moisture profiles due not support fog, however there could be some ground fog in the usual prone areas just before sunrise. Predominately northeast flow on Monday with high pressure centered north of the region. Quite dry at all levels. Extended Outlook...VFR. Showers possible Wednesday and Thursday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...High pressure overhead will keep winds light and from the NE at 10 to 15 kts today with seas of only around 2 ft for most places, with 3 footers present well offshore. Winds will turn to the E SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...Weak high pressure over the waters will keep winds in the 10 to 15 kt through much of the period. Seas will remain right around 2 ft for both days. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday...A deep return flow will develop Thursday into Friday generally remaining 10 kts or less. A very warm air mass in place will generate a healthy sea breeze each afternoon. Therefore expect winds to back a little each afternoon and spike up. The ECMWF shows a trough extending up from the low pressure over Florida on Thursday and actually tracks the low up toward Hatteras through Friday. This may affect our local winds but for now will keep with a southerly flow. The light but persistent southerly flow gradually increases seas through the period from less than 3 ft Thurs morning up to around 4 ft by late Friday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...REK

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