Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 230520 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 120 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper low will move across the eastern Carolinas through late tonight...bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms before departing offshore on Tuesday. Drier weather combined with above normal temperatures will follow mid week into next weekend...as an upper ridge expands from the Gulf states. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 120 AM Monday...An upper low positioned across Virginia this evening and will move into northeast North Carolina by daybreak. Shortwave energy rotating around this upper low will pivot across the forecast area tonight. One spoke of energy moved offshore earlier this eve. The next in the series will move into the eastern Carolinas overnight. Although lapse rates were steep earlier today due to surface heating and cool temps aloft...this will not be the case overnight. Thus...will go along with the consensus of high resolution models and show convection ending by or shortly after the midnight hour and then redeveloping Mon morning as the pool of coldest air aloft reaches the area coincident with the onset of surface heating. Variably cloudy skies tonight. Lows in the mid and upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday...For Monday, avbl models are in a consensus with the evolution and now progression of the upper closed low. Initially on Monday, the upper low will be over the Eastern Carolinas. It`s progged to begin lifting northward with a slow acceleration during Monday, reaching off the NJ coast by daybreak Tue. As for sensible wx during Monday thru Monday night, one of the spokes or mid-level s/w trofs rotating around the closed low, will push across the FA Monday morning. The upper s/w trof dynamics, the cold temps aloft with -20 degrees at 500 mb Monday morning, and avbl moisture, will all combine to produce isolated to scattered convection, which will be continuing into this time period from the Near term Period. The morning`s insolation will likely be enough for instability early to mid daytime Mon morning to produce isolated thunder. With cold temps aloft, thunderstorms may produce pea size hail along with brief gusty winds. For the remainder of Monday and Monday night, subsidence aloft in the wake of the exiting s/w trof should keep a partial lid on any additional convection during Monday aftn and evening, but wouldn`t be surprised if a few convective cells develop. Temps thru Monday night will continue to run 5 to 10 degrees below normal. For Tuesday, the upper low will progress further ne, away from the ILM CWA, reaching off Cape Cod by daybreak Wed. As a result, the FA will be under a de-amplifying upper trof, and in addition, upper ridging will be approaching from the west by late Tue. The ILM CWA will no longer see those "spokes" rotating around the upper low moving across the FA. Drying thru the atm column will also be evident as illustrated by the latest various model rh time height displays for locations across the fa. All of this said, spells no POPs and a mostly sunny Tuesday and a clear sky Tue night. A warming trend will ensue, with Max/Min temps reaching normal levels. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Summer weather for the last week of May as ridging aloft and Bermuda high pressure at the surface combine across the southeast. Each day through the extended will feature above normal temps...widespread mid to upper 80s...although temps will be a bit cooler at the coast thanks to a sea breeze each aftn...with lows in the mid 60s. Subsidence beneath the ridge will preclude even diurnal convection most days...although will maintain a SCHC Thursday as a weak impulse moves atop the ridge...with enough subtle height falls and PVA to generate storms Thursday evening. Otherwise the forecast through the period remains dry and warm. On Sunday...both the ECM and GFS have a broad low pressure moving towards the coast embedded in the easterly flow. This could bring unsettled weather and cooler temperatures...however confidence is low and will keep pop below mentionable for D7. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 06Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions through the TAF cycle although patches of MVFR fog tonight are likely. There is also a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday that warrants VCSH 15z-22z as an upper low pivots across the area. Light and mainly N-NW winds are expected through the valid TAF period. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 120 AM Monday...Winds tonight will be from the N and NNE at 10 to 15 kt. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft. A batch of showers is expected to wane as it approaches the waters late this eve. Showers are expected to redevelop Mon morning as an upper low approaches from the N. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Surface Low off Cape Hatteras Monday morning will track to the north and eventually will get captured by the upper low also lifting to the north. A weakly tightened sfc pg initially will yield n winds backing to nw at 10 to occasionally 15 kt across the NC waters. With the captured low further departing Monday night thru Tuesday and weak high pressure settling across the area waters, winds will further back to the West Mon night into Tue, and SW late Tue into Tue night. The sfc pg will further relax yielding wind speeds around 10 kt at best. Significant seas will run basically be around 3 feet. Seas will subside from 2 to 3 ft at the start of Tue to around 2 ft Tue night. An ESE ground swell at 8 to occasionally 9 second periods will dominate the significant seas into Tue with locally produced wind waves becoming more evident during Tue thru Tue Night. Convection will be ongoing Monday morning. Any of the isolated thunderstorms that occur will be capable of producing brief wind gusts up to 25 kt, and even pea size hail along the immediate coast only. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS of 300 PM Sunday...Bermuda high pressure will dominate the synoptic regime through the end of the week. This drives persistent S/SW winds across the waters...and as the gradient remains light...speeds will peak around 10 kt each day. Seas within this regime will be rather uniform through the period...2-3 ft with a 2 ft/8 sec SE wave and 2 ft/4 sec SW wave comprising the spectrum. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD/8 SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...RAN/8

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