Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 231748 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 148 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON IN DEEP NW FLOW AROUND FRONT END OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE N-NW. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF DEEP LOW OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY COLUMN THROUGH TONIGHT. PCP WATER LEVELS BASICALLY BELOW A HALF INCH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY A BIT OF MOISTURE SHOWING UP IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAM OVER AREA IN W-SW FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE BY MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. THEREFORE ANY LINGERING GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE AS SUN SETS THIS EVENING LEAVING NEAR CALM WINDS BY LATE EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MODIFY AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER BUT OVERALL TEMPS UP CLOSE TO 70 THIS AFTN UNDER BRIGHT OCTOBER SUNSHINE...WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING UNDER CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES. A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN TO 4O TO 45 DEGREES MOST PLACES. ANY CIRRUS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TEMPS MUCH AT ALL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FRI AS STACKED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HEADS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SHORTWAVE HAS ALMOST NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH DUE TO PROLONGED DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...EVIDENCED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL UNDER HALF AN INCH. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB WHICH MAY MANIFEST AS SOME CLOUDS AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WEAK FRONT TRAILS THE SHORTWAVE LATER SAT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARIES WAKE. HIGHS NEAR CLIMO FRI WILL CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO SAT ON THE BACK OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...SUBSIDENCE...AND SUBTLE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. LOWS RUN BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED SAT NIGHT SO DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND DEEP DRY AIR MIXING WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL COMPLETE THE TRANSITION FROM AMPLIFIED TO ZONAL SUN AS DRY FRONT EXITS THE REGION. PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE HIGH WEST OF THE AREA ON SUN OVERHEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST TUE. HOWEVER THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE COLUMN DRY. ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ALL BUT RULE OUT PRECIP. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TUE WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO. SUBSIDENCE AND AMPLE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD COMBINED WITH RETURN FLOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH WED. LOWS START OUT BELOW CLIMO...WITH DEEP DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TUE WILL PUSH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REIGNS ACROSS THE AREA. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS OVER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO WILL SEE SOME GUSTIER WINDS IN WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT AS COOL AND DRY AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...HIGHEST IN OUTER WATERS. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN DIMINISHING NW-N OFF SHORE FLOW. AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT...A SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD UP TO 10 SEC NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE OVER THE THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRI...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW. GRADIENT WILL BE OF LIMITED STRENGTH WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MAY KICK UP NORTHWEST WINDS A BIT FOR SAT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED WINDS POSSIBLE LATER SAT NIGHT AS DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15 KT THOUGHT THE PERIOD...THOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. SEAS START OUT AROUND 2 TO 3 FT BUT DROP TO 1 TO 2 FT BY MIDDAY AND REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT INTO SAT BEFORE INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW SAT NIGHT CAUSES SOME 3 FT SEAS NEAR 20 NM. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW PEAKS AROUND 15 KT EARLY SUN THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS DURING THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NC COAST. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING MON WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT ON SUN SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FT BY MON MORNING.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SGL MARINE...

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