Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 140714 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 314 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS A STALLED FRONT WAVERS NEAR THE AREA. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO SHIFTING INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE THE CONVERGENCE OF REASONABLY LARGE ELEVATED INSTABILITY (CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG) AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE LARGEST POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT FLOODING. WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DOTTING THE REGION THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS NOT EASY TO FIND...BUT APPEARS TO BE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS FAYETTEVILLE AT THE CURRENT TIME. THE FLOOD THREAT IS DIMINISHING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BUT AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NWS OFFICES IN RALEIGH AND NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY WE HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE WATCH UP FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FOR NOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH RALEIGH AND CHARLOTTE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THROUGH ALL OF SE NORTH CAROLINA AND A PORTION OF THE GRAND STRAND AND PEE DEE REGION OF SOUTH CAROLINA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. MODELS DISPLAY A VARIETY OF POSITIONS FOR THIS FRONT AT 12Z SUNDAY WITH AN AVERAGE POSITION ACROSS WILLIAMSBURG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES IN SC. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE AIRMASS IS VERY HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS 72-77 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 2.1 TO 2.25 INCHES. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DROPPED A RADAR-ESTIMATED 3 INCHES IN SPOTS...ALTHOUGH A WIDESPREAD 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH HAS BEEN MORE COMMON. INSTABILITY IS BECOMING MAINLY ELEVATED WITH CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG. ONE INGREDIENT MISSING FOR THIS BECOMING A MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING EVENT IS STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW: 925 AND 850 MB WINDS ARE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. AT 300 MB NOT ONLY CAN I NOT FIND A FAVORABLY POSITIONED JET STREAK ANYWHERE NEARBY...THERE`S ACTUALLY A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA. WE ARE DEPENDENT SOLELY ON LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT AND DEEP OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO PRODUCE STORMS. GIVEN THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT FROM CHARLOTTE EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF RALEIGH...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS WHICH RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS BENNETTSVILLE THROUGH LUMBERTON AND BURGAW...TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING MONDAY...CONTINUING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER BUT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH...WAA WILL FOLLOW AND HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY RISE TO SEASONABLE VALUES FINALLY...WITH LOW-TO-MID 80S EXPECTED...WARMEST SOUTH. THIS WARMTH WILL GO SOMEWHAT UNREALIZED HOWEVER...AS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT MUCH SUNSHINE...AND SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PWATS RISE TO 2.25 INCHES LATE MONDAY...AND EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED-TO-WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACTUALLY BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT THEN GETS PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ONE LAST TIME AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WITH DRY/COOL ADVECTION INCREASING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY DURING TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE A BREAK IS EXPECTED LATE. ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY...AN HIGH TEMPS MAY BE REACHED EARLIER THAN TYPICAL AHEAD OF THE CAA...WITH MID 80S AGAIN EXPECTED BEFORE COOLING LATE IN THE AFTN. MINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY WARM...LIKELY AROUND 70...BEFORE DROPPING TO THE MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE STEADY ECMWF IN ITS EVOLUTION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK REGARDING A STALLED COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EAST...COOL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST...AND THESE TWO FEATURES PUSH TUESDAYS COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL...AND IT APPEARS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG IT...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE JUST DISTANT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AREA DRY (FOR A CHANGE). WILL CONTINUE WITH SCHC POP ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONTINUE THE INHERITED TREND OF RAMPING DOWNWARD THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...AS A PERIOD OF FALL-LIKE WEATHER ENVELOPS THE CAROLINAS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MVFR/TEMPO IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT. STILL THINK STRATUS WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE THAN FOG...AS STRENGTHENING SFC WINDS BETWEEN 06-12Z SHOULD KEEP VSBYS FROM DROPPING BELOW MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED PREVAILING MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION SETTING UP RIGHT AROUND 1KFT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF IFR CIGS AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ATTM GIVEN THE LACK OF AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE. IT IS ALWAYS A TOUGH CALL WHEN CIGS HOVER AROUND THE 1KFT MVFR/IFR THRESHOLD. ANTICIPATE 1-2KFT MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT AT ALL TERMS. EVEN THOUGH FROPA IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL KEEP VCSH DURING THE DAY GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AND THE STALLED FRONT LINGERING TO OUR SOUTH. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS AND TEMPO MVFR THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND T-STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS ACTIVITY IN THE PEE DEE REGION SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS... THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA FROM NEAR ELIZABETH CITY TO RALEIGH AND TO JUST SOUTH OF CHARLOTTE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND DEFINITELY SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST MODELS DISPLAY QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD WITH THEIR PREDICTED FRONTAL POSITIONS BUT IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR MYRTLE BEACH AT DAYBREAK...WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. SEAS CURRENTLY ONLY 1 FOOT MAY BUILD TOWARD 2 FEET LATE TONIGHT. THE ONLY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SO FAR AS BEEN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE WEEK...CAUSING WINDS TO EXPERIENCE NEARLY EVERY COMPASS DIRECTION DURING THE PERIOD. INITIALLY...FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WITH LIGHT NE WINDS COMMON...BUT THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT THROUGH MONDAY TO BECOME SE AND THEN W/SW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS FRONT WILL THEN RETURN AS A REINFORCED COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO TURN TO THE NW AND EVENTUALLY NE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION...INCREASING ONLY VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THESE LIGHT AND HIGHLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS LOW AMPLITUDE MOST OF THE PERIOD...REMAINING 1-3 FT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LATE TUESDAY HOWEVER...SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WILL ARRIVE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD...BECOMING 3-5 FT TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POOR MARINE CONDITIONS MEETING SCA THRESHOLDS BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS AN EXTENDED NE SURGE DEVELOPS WITHIN A PINCHED GRADIENT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND INCREASING AMPLITUDE LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD COMBINE. NE WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RISE TO 15-20 KTS LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN PERSIST ON THURSDAY...DRIVING A WIND WAVE OF ABOUT 6FT/5SEC INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE WIND WAVES WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH A 3FT/13SEC SE SWELL TO PRODUCE 4-6 FT WAVES THROUGH MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...CREATING THE EXPECTED LONG-DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096- 099-105>110. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DCH/MRR MARINE...DCH/TRA/JDW

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