Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 241048 CCA AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Wilmington NC 648 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dry cold front will sweep off the coast this afternoon followed by Canadian high pressure Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front will bring a few brief showers to the area late Thursday. Above normal temperatures are expected into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 6 AM Monday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update, previous discussion follows: SW flow in advance of a cold front will lead to above-normal temperatures today, with highs mainly in the upper 70s. Climo has highs in the mid 70s, so expecting 3 to 5 degrees above average for this afternoon. Column remains quite dry, even with FROPA, with P/W values only in the half inch range. Expecting no precip and little too nothing in the way of clouds today and tonight. This very dry cold front will drop SE across the eastern Carolinas this evening and offshore by around midnight. CAA following FROPA will help drop temps back around climo, with lows right around 50 most places and the mid 50s nearer the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Monday...A cool and dry airmass will dominate the short term as Canadian high pressure settles over the area. Weather will remain dry with little to no cloud cover. Temperatures will run below normal for both days until Wednesday night when the raise back near normal, as low-level flow becomes SWly with the ridge axis passing offshore. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 AM Monday...Synchronized synoptic depictions do still prevail among the GFS and ECMWF supermodels that a few showers will whisk across the region late Thursday with meager rainfall tallies so no appreciable impacts on river levels foreseen. Unraveling of these solutions follows into the weekend and local sensible weather expectations become murky. Splitting these differences while weighing in climatology still brings above normal temperatures over the weekend with rainfall chances to low to crunch out mention of rain showers. The lean of POP values were more closely favored with the European. One certainty it appears is that no cold air out-breaks are on the horizon at this time and little to zero tropical spin-ups of impact in the cards through 8 days. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 12Z...A cold front will move through this TAF valid period, but NSW expected. WSW winds 10-15 kt expected ahead of the front except becoming SSW-SW at KCRE/KMYR aft 17-18Z. Winds decrease to aob 6 kt late afternoon/early evening, but will veer to NW later in the evening, then increase to N-NE 5-10 kt by the end of the TAF valid period. Extended Outlook...VFR. Isolated showers Thursday night. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 6 AM Monday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update, previous discussion follows: Modest west winds today will shift north tonight as a dry cold front moves across the waters. Expecting winds of 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts and seas of 2 to 3 ft through the period. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Monday...A cold surge following an earlier cold frontal passage will kick NE winds up into the 15 to 20 kt range early in the period, with seas building as high as 5 ft over our outer waters. This may necessitate Exercise Caution headlines for early Tuesday. Conditions improve as high pressure settles over the waters, with more benign conditions expected to from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 AM Monday...Agreeable marine conditions appear on deck Thursday through Saturday. An uptick in southerly winds Thursday ahead of a cold front appears likely but with cooler shelf waters in place, a portion of the boundary layer winds will not reach the sea surface. Post frontal winds we normally watch for surge potential but the synoptic gradient in wake of the front Friday looks flat. Light to moderate S-SW winds anticipated Saturday. No TSTMS on the 0-20 NM waters expected this period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...MRR MARINE...MJC/REK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.