Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 270521 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 121 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SOME ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 1:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: A FRESH NE WIND CONTINUES TO GRAZE THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ABOUT THE AREA. NO FOG ISSUES EXPECTED AND MIXING SHOULD KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING DEEPER INTO THE 60S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PREVIOUS EVENING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. QUIET WEATHER AMID DEEP NE WIND FLOW IN THE COLUMN...VASTLY DRY ABOVE 6000 FEET. MODERATE LOW-LEVEL NE WINDS WILL PREVENT HOURLY TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS SHARPLY AS THEY POTENTIALLY COULD UNDER CLEARING SKIES...BUT CONSIDERABLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE AUGUST INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW AND MID 60S EXPECTED...MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S AT OUR INTERIOR COLD POCKETS. THE STIRRING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM SETTLING IN OVERNIGHT DESPITE A CLEARING AND STARLIT DOME. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT AS IT IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PERHAPS ONE ADJUSTMENT WILL BE TO SCALE BACK CLOUD COVER AT THE COAST...WITH THE INTENTION OF MOSTLY CLEAR VERSUS PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE COURSE OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...CRISTOBAL WILL BE PASSING BY MORE THAN 400 MILES OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST WED MORNING WITH NO DIRECT IMPACTS ON THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALOFT ON WED AND STRENGTHEN ON THU. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE SUBSIDENCE AS THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY. HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA WILL RISE...RESULTING IN CONDITIONS MORE TYPICAL FOR LATE AUGUST. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON WED AND TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ON THU. THE BEACHES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID 80S ON WED. A MORE WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ON THU SHOULD ALLOW THE BEACHES TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES AS THE SEABREEZE IS DELAYED AND REMAINS PINNED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE COLUMN...EXPECT THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW NIGHTTIME TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS THE MID AND UPPER 60S WED NIGHT AND TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S THU NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURES THIS WEEKEND. 5H RIDGE OVERHEAD FRI WILL KEEP MID LEVELS DRY AND PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY SAT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. SURFACE AND 5H RIDGE AXIS SHIFT OFFSHORE SUN WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. WILL SHOW POP INCREASE ON SUN BUT THINK BETTER CHANCES WILL BE MON/TUE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING ON PROLONGED AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW. MON/TUE MID LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCE SHOULD BE WEAKER AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND STRONGER PIEDMONT TROUGH SETS UP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 03Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REIGNS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AND ONLY PATCHES OF FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS FLOATING ACROSS THE AREA. AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL STAYS WELL OFFSHORE AND THEREFORE CREATES NO AVIATION IMPACTS...EXPECT A QUIET PERIOD ON TAP. GIVEN SLIGHTLY INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND DRIER LOW-LEVELS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...VFR PREVAILS WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS FRI. INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1:30 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: CAUTION STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED WITH NO CHANGES IN STATUS. INCREASING SWELL WAVES FROM CRISTOBAL WILL BE UNDERWAY OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 5-7 FOOT SEAS GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT POTENTIALLY LARGER BREAKERS NEAR THE SURF ZONE DUE TO THE SPEED OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES ARRIVING IN LONGER WAVE PERIODS. A 10-20 KT NNE WIND WILL RIP ACROSS THE BUILDING SE SWELL EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS WILL EASE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE FIELD FROM CRISTOBAL LOOSENS. OVERNIGHT EXPECT WORSENING CONDITIONS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SWELL ENERGY WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 6 FT... MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS INTO WED WITH AN EXPECTATION THAT 6 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. THUS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH A HEADLINE FOR SMALL CRAFT TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR AMZ254. THE SWELL DIRECTION WILL BE SE WITH A PERIOD UP TO 12 TO 15 SECONDS. WINDS WILL STILL BE FROM THE NE AND N ON WED...BACKING TO THE W WED NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH CRISTOBAL MOVING NE...BUT PASSING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO SW THU AND THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT WED MORNING...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WEAK GRADIENT WITH SURFACE HIGH RIDGING DOWN THE COAST WILL KEEP WIND FIELD LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY FLOW WILL BE ONSHORE AROUND 10 KT...THOUGH WITH INCREASED SPEEDS NEAR SHORE DUE TO SEA BREEZE. AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SAT AND SUN WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BUT GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEA BREEZE WILL AGAIN BE ACTIVE SAT AND SUN. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST ON FRI. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL BE THE DOMINANT WAVE TYPE WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL TROPICAL LOW RESULTING IN LONG PERIOD SWELLS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RJD NEAR TERM...REK/MBB SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SGL MARINE...REK/RJD/III/MBB

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