Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 301916 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 316 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. A COASTAL FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GOOD RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...SOME MOISTURE REMAINS AVAILABLE IN PRIMARILY THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRIEST AIR ACROSS NC WITH A DEEP PLUME FAR OFF THE COAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AS IT RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH AND AT THE COAST A WEAK NORTHEAST RESULTANT BOUNDARY DEVELOPS. REGARDING CONVECTION...GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL FORECAST ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH THE HIGHEST (ALBEIT LOW) PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TAP WITH LOWS BELOW CLIMO (MID 60S FAR INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S INLAND COASTAL COUNTIES). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. H5 TROF ACROSS HUDSON BAY IN CANADA STARTS TO LIFT TO THE NE TURNING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM NW AROUND TO THE SW BY FRIDAY AND A WARM MOIST TRANSPORT OF AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION BUT THIS WILL BE OFFSET AS COASTAL TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE DURING FRIDAY AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS AGAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ON THURSDAY REGION STARTS TO SEE AN INCREASE IN PWAT AT THIS TIME I HAVE SCALED BACK ON THE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE NIGHT TIME WITH A BETTER CHANCE BY FRIDAY. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION FOR TEMPS/POP BUT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER POPS FROM THE GFS ON FRIDAY AS INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF COASTAL TROF MOVING ONSHORE SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT ACROSS REGION. THIS WILL ALSO HELP IN KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN. PWAT INCREASE ON FRIDAY TO AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO INCREASE POPS TO OVER 40 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES INLAND. STAGE IS SET FOR SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHILE CLOUD COVER INHIBITS DAYTIME HIGHS FROM REACHING CLIMO NORMS. MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY BOTH WASH OUT AS MONDAY PROGRESSES BUT THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR A SIMILAR FORECAST. TUESDAY HAD PREVIOUSLY LOOKED LIKE A MORE TYPICAL AUGUST DAY BUT MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE MID LEVEL VEERING AND STILL SHOW SOME WEAK VORTICITY CENTERS PASSING OVERHEAD. FEEL IT MAY BE BEST TO STILL SHOW A HIGHER THAN CLIMO POP-BUT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL ALSO SHOW RISING AFTERNOON HIGHS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS SEASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART ALTHOUGH SOME DEEP MOISTURE MAY BE LINGERING OVER FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELD FILLING IN ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN WITH BASES GENERALLY 3-6KFT. THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH EAST WINDS AOB 10 KT. ALTHOUGH THE FCST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY ABOVE 700 MB...RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTN INDICATES ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT EXISTS FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. BUT GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY VCSH WITH THIS ISSUANCE. EXPECT INCREASING CIRRUS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME E-NE 5 KT OR LESS. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPO MVFR VSBYS EARLY THU MORNING AT KFLO/KLBT. THOUGH THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP OUT...INCREASING CIRRUS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBYS AT VFR LEVELS INLAND. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY BR ATTM. VFR WILL PERSIST INTO THU WITH EAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND SUBSEQUENT NORTHEASTERLY RESULTANT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THE FLOW SHOULD VEER AROUND TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE FLOW SHOULD BACK SLIGHTLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 FT NEAR THE COAST TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...BETTER CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS PERIOD AS STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED BACK TOWARDS THE COAST THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE DURING FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS WITH WEAK GRADIENT ON THURSDAY BUT INCREASE FRIDAY WITH COASTAL TROF MOVING ONSHORE. WINDS MAINLY E TO SE ON THURSDAY VEERING TO THE S-SW BY FRIDAY. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SE WINDS ON SATURDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST MOVES FURTHER WEST. SEAS AROUND 3 FT FOR THE MOST PART AS WIND WAVES QUITE LIGHT BUT WNA SPECTRAL PLOTS SHOWING A SEERLY SWELL. HEADING INTO SUNDAY A MINOR VEER TO THE S AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND WEAKENS ALLOWING WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT WITH LOCAL WIND GENERATION. SEAS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. AS THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY A SIMILAR ONE COMPASS POINT VEER TO SW CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY SHOULD THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STRENGTHEN BUT THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP AND ITS FUTURE PATH AND STRENGTH STILL PRETTY UP IN THE AIR.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CRM NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...MAC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...BJR MARINE...MAC/SRP

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