Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 221732 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 132 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG HEAT AND HIGH HUMIDITY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MAINTAINS A GRIP ON THE AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL OFFER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOW RAIN CHANCES. A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE MAINTAINING A STRONG-ARM GRIP OVER THE AREA WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND HIGH VALUES OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PRESENTLY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED INLAND ACROSS OUR NORTHERN NC INTERIOR PRESENTLY. LITTLE TO NO TSTMS THROUGH MIDDLE-AFTERNOON BUT SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL DIVE SE OVER THE RIDGE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS REMOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR OUR AREA BUT ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF SC THIS AFTN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. MOS NUMBERS ARE GENERALLY SPREAD BY 5 DEGREES WITH THE MAV WARMER OF THE TWO. HAVE BASICALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...THE ACTUAL CAA LAGS AND THE `COOLING` MAY BE MORE A FUNCTION OF FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ASSOC WITH FROPA. MOS POPS ARE SURPRISINGLY LOW AREA-WIDE...GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOWEST CHANCE RANGE. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE PREFER THE 40-ISH POPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MORE SEASONABLE AND LESS HUMID AIR STARTS CREEPING IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE MOISTURE HOWEVER IS SLOWER TO ADVECT OFF TO THE SOUTH. CLOUDS MAY THUS HANG IN ON SUNDAY AND SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...SLIGHTLY FAVORING COASTAL AND SOUTHERN LOCALES WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...DRYING BECOMES PRONOUNCED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE PUSHES FRONT AND ITS ASSOC MOISTURE EVEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS MS AND OH VALLEY REGIONS BRINGING A NORTHERLY FLOW LOCALLY. THIS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SOME VERY PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. BOTH RIDGES WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN THE FORM OF NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIR...BUT STILL TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP CHANCES. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH TODAY...WITH HEAT INDICES PROBABLY STAYING BELOW 100. THINGS GET INTERESTING TOWARD EVENING AS FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WITH A POSSIBLE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING BY EARLY EVENING. THINK ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE SOME SORT OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE NOT TOO KEEN FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE HOWEVER. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH TOWARD MORNING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR POST FRONT...CONTINUING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY SATURDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT VFR MON THRU WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1 PM FRIDAY...A SFC TROF WILL EXTEND N-S ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO TONIGHT. RIDGING FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND TO THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS. THE 2 COMBINED WILL PRODUCE SW WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH REACHING THE DOORSTEPS AT SURF CITY TOWARD DAYBREAK SAT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THE SFC PG WILL YIELD A 10 TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FT. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DRIVE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS FOR THE MOST PART. IE. WINDS FROM THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. AN UNDERLYING 1 FOOT ESE GROUND SWELL AT 9 SECOND PERIODS WILL REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY AND A COLD FRONT SLIDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A LIGHT WEST WIND THAT SHOULD START VEERING FIRST OVER NORTHERN ZONES IN THE EVENING AND THEN FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS SENSE OF TIMING MAY NEED TWEAKING HOWEVER AS MODELS ARE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE RESOLVING THE TWO BOUNDARIES. AT LEAST A TURN TO THE NORTH LOOKS CERTAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AND THUS WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD GET UNDERWAY. SUNDAY WILL BRING A RATHER ATYPICAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH A LITTLE BIT OF GUSTINESS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. SCEC TOUGH TO RULE OUT OVER NORTHERN ZONES. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...RATHER UNUSUAL NORTHEASTERLY SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE CHANGE. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE FETCH IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE COULD LEAD TO SOME ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT SEAS BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL TEND TO STAY SUB-ADVISORY. ALSO INTERESTING BUT HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE. NO DIRECT IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT BUT ITS RELATED SWELLS COULD BE RADIATING THIS WAY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039- 053>056. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...8 SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DL/8

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