Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 300534 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 134 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...REMAINING NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS IS BRINGING A WARM SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS ONSHORE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH WARM DRY AIR ALOFT. DESPITE INLAND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH RESPECT TO CONDITIONS ALOFT...AND SHOWERS WERE VERY ISOLATED. OTHER SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE HAVE HAD LIMITED SUCCESS MAKING IT TOWARD SHORE...AND MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT AS WELL. COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE A BIT HIGHER. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AS WELL. WIND SPEEDS AT 1000 FEET 12-15 KT CURRENTLY SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 10 KT BY 3-4 AM...AND I WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST AND EAST OF I-95. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE 64-69 INLAND TO AROUND 70 ON THE BEACHES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE AREA... PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING SEABREEZE BOTH DAYS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO OUR WEST... ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY BLEED INTO PRIMARILY WESTERN MOST COMMUNITIES AND WILL SHOW HIGHER POPS HERE...BUT NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOUT SEASONABLE...INLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES WILL KEEP THE COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS THE MID LEVELS WILL FEATURE A DEVELOPING RIDGE OUT WEST AND A MEANDERING CLOSED LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LATTER FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT SLOWLY CREEPS SOUTH. AFTER A SLOW START MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND COMBINED WITH THE MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES...GOOD CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN ORDER. THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCUR TUESDAY. THE FRONT BASICALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AS DOES THE MID LEVEL FEATURES AS THE CUTOFF LOW IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALBEIT AT LOWER VALUES DUE TO A BRIEF INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE VERY WARM EARLY...COURTESY OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN WALKING BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AS THE MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT AND JUST A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE EVEN WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. OVERNIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY WITH MODELS WANTING TO INTRODUCE STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG. WILL GO WITH MVFR AT THIS TIME WITH NEAR IFR AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. ANY CEILINGS BY MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH THE STUBBORN SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS RATHER SUBDUED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE WEAK RESULTANT BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. FROM THIS POSITION THE HIGH IS GENERATING OVER A 2000 MILE LONG EASTERLY FETCH ENDING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE LIGHT...BUT WE ARE STILL RECEIVING A 4 FOOT 8-9 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL OFFSHORE...DAMPING DOWN BY ABOUT 1-2 FEET AS IT ENTERS THE SHALLOWER WATER NEARSHORE. RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS 10-40 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR. THESE HAVE SO FAR DISSIPATED AS THEY HAVE APPROACHED SHORE...AND MOST (BUT NOT ALL) MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SEABREEZE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ESE TO SE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE SOUTH LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...A COMBINATION OF WIND AND SWELL ENERGY. SWELL ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND SEAS BY THEN MAY SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AND THIS SEEMS A BIT GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE WEAK PRESSURE FIELDS. A FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS VERY STABLE WITH 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJD NEAR TERM...REK/TRA SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...REK/DL MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/SHK

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.