Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 241115 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 615 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE COAST TONIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW BACK EDGE OF DRY SLOT SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL TO THE NORTH. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IS ABOUT ALL WE CAN EXPECT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. FOR TODAY...VERY MOIST LOW LAYERS WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 60S AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL PRODUCE A MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. RESULTING CONVECTION WILL KICK OFF AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE LIMITED PRECIP COVERAGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED ABOVE 700MB AND FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK. IN ADDITION...WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY LEAD TO STRONG CONVECTION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. CONSIDERING THE WARM START TO THE DAY...HAVE GONE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...WITH THIS FEATURE EITHER STILL MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OR MOVING OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. IN ANY CASE...AT THIS STAGE COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. SO...WILL KEEP THE ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND GOING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS WEAK FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON... AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING LATE IN THE DAY. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 12Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CREATING A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY...DISSIPATING A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD MORNING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A MODERATE SOUTH TO SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY. SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN SHOALS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RAN NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...RAN LONG TERM...RAN AVIATION...DL MARINE...REK/RAN

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