Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 301903 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 303 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE IMAGE WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER GEORGIA HELPING TO CREATE A RIVER OF MOISTURE RIGHT INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. IN THE VERY NEAR TERM/THROUGH THIS EVENING THIS MEANS INCREASING RAINFALL COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH HEAVIEST RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT AS DEEPER CONVECTION OFF GA COAST IMPINGES UPON THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW MOVING NORTHEAST IN OUR DIRECTION SHOULD HELP CHANNEL SOME OF THIS MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. QPF FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE RAISED. LATER TONIGHT MODELS HAVE DIFFERING IDEAS ON THE RAINFALL WITH WRF ALL BUT KILLING OFF THE HEAVY RAIN AND THE GFS HAVING IT TAKE A BREAK BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN TOWARDS 12Z. GIVEN THAT IN THE PAST MODELS HAVE EGREGIOUSLY UNDERDONE RAINFALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS IN SOME SETUPS ESPECIALLY WITH TROPICAL REMNANTS INVOLVED (OCTOBER 2005, ANYONE?) HAVE OPTED MORE TOWARDS THE LATTER. THE ECWMF CRANKS OUT RAIN ALL NIGHT IN FAIR AMOUNTS AND MAY HAVE THE BEST IDEA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE REMAINS GOOD RAIN POTENTIAL SETTING UP FOR NE SC AND SE NC AS AN UPPER LOW EVIDENT IN VAPOR CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON DRIVES DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MARINE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA WILL TRANSPORT A RICH SUPPLY OF DISTURBED AIR OVER A NOCTURNALLY BUOYANT OCEAN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES MAY CUT OFF SHARPLY INLAND MONDAY AS DRY AIR INTRUSION ENTRAINED INTO THE UPPER LOW SPREADS MORE CAPPING INLAND. DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS HOWEVER...RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING...AND FAVORED CLOSER TO THE COAST. WPC QPF GRAPHICS THROUGH WED 00Z/TUE 8PM SHOW 2-3 INCHES ALONG THE SC COAST AND 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE...BUT LESS THAN AN INCH WEST OF I-95. CLOUDS WILL KEEP MAXIMUMS BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES BUT CLOSER TO AVERAGE WELL INLAND.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST...WHICH WAS HELPING FUNNEL DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WEAKENS BY THE START OF THE PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE WHAT IS LEFT OF ERIKA WILL BE A DRIFT ACROSS GEORGIA MID AND LATE WEEK GIVEN THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND NE ALONG THE COAST...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MID WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY MID AND LATE WEEK. OVERALL... PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHER MID WEEK...SLOWLY LOWERING LATE WEEK AND FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHER POPS...ESPECIALLY WED- THU TIME FRAME AND LOWEST POPS DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR N MAY RIDGE STRONGLY TO OUR W...THUS ALLOWING FOR A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE EVEN LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...NOT SEEING ENOUGH SIGNALS TO GO ABOVE CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGHOUT ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY FIND JUSTIFICATION FOR AT LEAST LIKELY POPS AS THE FINER DETAILS IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE CRYSTALLIZE.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 18Z...A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY MAINLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TAF PERIOD AS MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT. THE COLUMN BECOMES FAIRLY SATURATED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NAM IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC WITH HIGH POPS AND IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT. THE GFS HAS LOWER POPS AND MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS. WILL GO WITH A BIT OF A HYBRID OF THE TWO...WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY INLAND. A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY...WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CEILINGS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL GIVE US UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. A BIT BETTER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY WEAK FLOW REGIME IN PLACE FOR THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFF THE COAST. WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THE MAIN MARINE HAZARD IS ARGUABLY GOING TO BE THE BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT TIMES, LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT AROUND 10KTS AND A 2 TO 3 FT PREDOMINANT WAVE. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN INTO MONDAY AS RAIN REDUCES VSBYS AND SE WINDS KEEP SEAS ELEVATED 3-4 FT SEAS AND AS HIGH AS 5 FT OUTER PORTION. AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SC WATERS WHERE STRONGER SE WINDS OF 17-21 KT MAY OCCUR MUCH OF MONDAY. ISOLATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY GREET THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN INTO TUESDAY. SEAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ESE WAVES 3-5 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. SE WIND CHOP WILL BE STRONGEST MONDAY ALONG THE SC COAST AND AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS MID AND LATE WEEK. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE LOOKS MOST PRONOUNCED WED- THU. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL BE MAINLY EASTERLY OR SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE HOURS. THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING LAND BREEZE WILL DISRUPT THE FLOW TO MORE OF AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 FT. A 8 TO 9 SECOND SE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID WEEK AS COMPARED TO LATE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE HIGHER IN PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS. .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...RJD AVIATION...DL/MBB

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