Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 011146 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 646 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE TODAY ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING OFF THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD...AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS BEYOND. SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD ATTM...WILL ALSO FOLLOW SUIT AND PUSH OFFSHORE. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL RESULT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MILDER TEMPS ACROSS THE FA BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WARM FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS NORTH OF THE FA TODAY...WITH IT QUICKLY LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE FA BY TONIGHT. INITIALLY...THE SSE-S RETURN FLOW WILL BE LIGHT INTO THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COLD DENSE AIR IN PLACE. HOWEVER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE BETTER WAA WILL OCCUR AT ALL LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSIFYING LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...AND REDEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL S/W TROF TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW. THE EASTWARD MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY SUNRISE MON. WITH BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING TAPPED WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPS TO REMAIN FAR TOO MILD FOR ANY FREEZING OR FROZEN PCPN ACROSS THE ILM CWA. AS FOR TEMPS...STAYED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S. FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...TEMPS WILL INITIALLY DROP EARLY THIS EVENING BUT AS THE WAA ENGULFS THE FA OVERNIGHT... TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY EITHER HOLD STEADY OR LIKELY CLIMB DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE FOR PART OF THE DAY MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM NOW MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES ACROSS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH A VERY BREEZY AND COLD TWELVE HOURS OR SO. INTERESTING TO NOTE THE MAV HAS 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED FOR 21 UTC MONDAY AFTERNOON IN WILMINGTON. WE DONT SEE THESE VALUES SHOW UP VERY MUCH OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED BY SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. TUESDAY WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO ECLIPSE 50 DEGREES. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEUTRAL ADVECTION AT 850MB BUT A SECONDARY VORT WILL ALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION TO BEGIN ONCE AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PROBLEMATIC SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE EXTENDED. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH IS TO SHEAR OUT THE SHORTWAVE AND MOVE IT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND QUICKLY OFFSHORE. I HAVE ONCE AGAIN DECREASED POPS INCREMENTALLY TO REFLECT THIS TREND. IN FACT...IF TRENDS CONTINUE ANY POPS IN THE PERIOD MAY BE RELEGATED TO THE STRONG TRAILING SHORTWAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS MAKING A RUN TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO EASTERN TEXAS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 10 KTS AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE AS TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND AS A RESULT WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS...WITH VCSH/-RA. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW VEERING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO AOB 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS LATE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF MVFR IN HEAVIER RAINFALL/PATCHY FOG. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY INTO MONDAY MORNING. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...THE ILM COASTAL WATERS WILL OBSERVE BENIGN CONDITIONS TO START THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RATHER QUICKLY. CENTER OF SFC HIGH TO RETREAT FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...ALLOWING LIGHT SE-S RETURN FLOW TO INITIALLY COMMENCE. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL DRAMATICALLY TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS DUE TO THE INTENSIFYING LOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE LOOKING AT S-SSW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS...IE.MME AND MMG RESPECTIVELY GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATE THIS NICELY. ONLY CHANGE TO THE SCA WILL BE TO COMMENCE IT AN HOUR EARLIER AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH WIND SPEEDS FURTHER INCREASING DAYTIME MON...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. AS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS...THEY TOO WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST HEIGHTS THIS MORNING AT 1 TO 2 FT. LOOK FOR THEM TO BUILD SLIGHTLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 4 FT. SIG SEAS WILL EXPLODE TO THE UPSIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...REACHING DOUBLE DIGITS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY DAYBREAK MON. NO APPRECIABLE GROUND SWELL OUT THERE...THUS SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN WAVES. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...IT WILL BE A ROUGH AND TUMBLE 12-18 HOURS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. INITIALLY A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KNOTS AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONT THAT WILL STILL BE INLAND. THIS FRONT WILL POWER ACROSS AROUND MIDDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING. WITH DEEP MIXING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS UP TO 850MB...GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THE GFS MARINE BULLETIN FOR 41013 HAS SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED GALES. I HAVE RAISED A GALE WATCH FROM 1200 UTC MONDAY THROUGH 0600 UTC TUESDAY. AS QUICKLY AS WINDS RAMP UP...THEY SEEMINGLY DROP AS QUICKLY AND BY MIDDAY TUESDAY SPEEDS WILL BE DOWN TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY WITH THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. IRONICALLY ENOUGH...SEAS WONT BE THAT HIGH CONSIDERING THE POWERFUL WINDS DUE TO THE CHANGEABLE NATURE OF THE FETCH AND LACKING LONGEVITY. EXPECT 4-10 FEET FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON DROPPING TO 2-4 FEET TUESDAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS AND THE DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WIND FIELDS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH. A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP. SEAS INCREASE FROM 1-2 FEET EARLY TO 3-5 FEET LATER THURSDAY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL

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