Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KILM 280525
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
125 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016
A dry cold front will cross the area late tonight and move
offshore Friday morning. High pressure will follow for the weekend
with above normal temperatures expected. Another dry cold front
should move across the area on Monday. High pressure will build in
from the north following the second front but cold air is limited
and above normal temperatures will continue.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 700 PM Thursday...Temps dropping slowly this evening in a
warm and moist return flow ahead of approaching front. Westerly
winds aloft carrying some mid to high clouds eastward across the
Previous discussion remains on target...High pressure continuing
to ridge down the coast will slowly retreat to the NE ahead of a
cold front which will drop across the Carolinas tonight. Actual
FROPA is not forecast until very early Friday, likely beyond the
near term at the coast, so a relatively warm night is forecast
thanks to persistent SW winds ahead of this feature. Mins tonight
will range from the low 60s at the coast to mid 50s inland, with
increased cloud cover in the vicinity of the boundary also
preventing strong cooling. Guidance is keeping all precip to the
north of the CWA, and forecast profiles suggest only limited
moisture beneath 850mb. Have kept POP silent, but if an isolated
shower or two did develop late, especially in the Cape Fear area,
would not be entirely shocked. However, confidence and coverage
does not warrant any mention of 0.01 QPF. Some light fog will be
possible tonight, especially inland, but BL winds will prevent
anything more than isolated.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Cold front will cross offshore very early
Friday morning, such that the entire area will be in cool NW flow by
late morning. Dry and cool high pressure builds in quickly behind
this front as mid-level flow remains fast. This will produce a very
sunny day on Friday with PWATs falling to 0.5-0.75 inches, but
little temperature change is expected. Highs on Friday will remain
above climo, 75-80 across the area, but it will be very comfortable
in the dry air. This high pressure moves overhead and then offshore
during Saturday as mid-level pattern becomes amplified thanks to
ridging blossoming from the Gulf Coast. This will lead to a warmer
day than Friday, aided by W/NW flow aloft causing some downslope
warming. Abundant sunshine is again expected, and highs Saturday
will likely climb above 80 inland, and into the upper 70s near the
coast. A sea breeze will develop, but will likely remain pinned at
the coast. Mins Friday night will radiate into the low 50s,
remaining several degrees warmer Saturday night thanks light return
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Ridge overhead with plenty of dry air and
subsidence on Sunday, combined with deep westerly flow aloft,
return flow around sfc high and plenty of sunshine will spell out
a very warm day. The warmest day of the period with temps
reaching into the 80s and possibly mid 80s in spots.
The surface high will continue to migrate east through Sun night
as a shortwave drives a dry cold front toward the area. Looks like
this front will drop south through the area overnight with a
deeper NW to northerly flow developing through Mon morning and
ridge building in quickly behind it. This will bring in slightly lower
dewpoint air shaving off a few degrees, but will maintain warm
weather as high pressure extends down into the Carolinas through
mid week. Expect a slightly cooler feel to the air for Halloween
but overall a mild day and upcoming week ahead.
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 06Z...Slight potential for brief patchy MVFR fog around
daybreak, especially inland. Otherwise, VFR through the valid TAF
A dry cold front poised to cross the area will move offshore
later this morning. Guidance has backed off isolated showers with
fropa and a look at latest radar trends upstream supports the
little to no shower potential idea. Have removed mention of VCSH
at all sites but keeping inland MVFR fog. VFR conditions after
daybreak with westerly winds becoming west-northwesterly under 10
kt. Only exception will be coastal SC sites where weak sea breeze
will overpower the light northwest flow. There is potential for a
few hours of southeast winds around 10 kt in the afternoon.
Extended Outlook...VFR expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 700 PM Thursday...High pressure offshore and retreating to
the NE is allowing light winds to veer slowly from SE to SW this
evening. Wind speeds are 10 kts or less at the buoys, and no
significant increase in speed is forecast even as winds shift to
the SW. A cold front approaching from the NW will be near the
coast at the end of the near term, with continued slowly veering
to the west by Friday morning. Seas will feature predominantly a
SE swell/S wind wave, producing 2-3 ft seas.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Cold front will move across the waters early
Friday, followed by large high pressure for the remainder of the
short term. Winds will feature a large variety of directions this
period, NW to NE on Friday, and then veering back to the SW as the
high shifts overhead and offshore late Saturday. The strongest winds
will be during Friday, with 10-15 kts speeds expected, falling to 5-
10 as the gradient weakens Saturday. Seas will be 2-3 ft regardless
of wind direction, but may be a bit more choppy on Friday thanks to
the slightly enhanced N/NE winds.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...High pressure on Sunday will migrate east
as a cold front approaches from the north Sun night. Light
southwest flow ahead of the front through Sun will shift around to
the north by Mon morning once front pushes south. Without much in
the way of CAA, do not expect any increase in winds or seas
through the day on Monday, but as the high shifts east, gradient
tightens a bit with a slight increase in NE winds Mon night into
Tuesday. This will push seas up slightly from less than 3 ft to
near 4 ft in outer waters.