Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 142319 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 719 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER WEATHER ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY A SLOW RETURN OF ANY SUNSHINE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE 1500-7000 FOOT LAYER. WEAK WARM ADVECTION EXTENDING DOWN AS LOW AS 925 MB LATE WILL CREATE TRANSITORY PATCHES OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 300K THETA SURFACE WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE SANTEE RIVER. BESIDES LOWERING POPS BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR ALL AREAS MOST OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINOR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS... NE SURGE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT LOW-LEVEL COOLING AND SUBSTANTIALLY LOWERED DEWPOINT VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WHILE STABILIZING A COLUMN FROM THE GROUND FLOOR...STILL CHALKED FULL OF VAPOR CONTENT PER LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT SCANS. OVER- RUNNING AND WEAK WAVES OF ISENTROPIC OMEGA WILL LIKELY BRING -RA/-DZ OR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TO THE AREA BUT NO REAL FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST DESPITE VERY WET GROUND AND A WET AIR MASS. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PLENTIFUL OVERNIGHT IN THIS REGIME AND TIME HEIGHT DEPICTIONS SHOW MID-LEVEL DRYING LATE TONIGHT WILL FURTHER LOWER THE PROBABILITIES OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR LARGE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THUS PRIMARILY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY AND LOW-END CHANCES. HIGHEST POP VALUES TO RESIDE EXTREME SOUTH AND OFFSHORE. MIN TEMPS WITH CLOUD COVER AND COOL AIR ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSER TO THE SEA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH WHILE WASHING OUT CONSIDERABLY. THE END RESULT LOCALLY WILL BE A REBOUNDING OF TEMPERATURES DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THE RISE IN HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLE. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY ALSO WASH BACK INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS MAY BE OVERDONE IN MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF ANY FORCING NOT TO MENTION THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY SLATED FOR A TUESDAY PASSAGE NOW LOOKS SLOWER DUE IN PART TO A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BUT ALSO DUE TO THE LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THE BOUNDARY. EVEN SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME DURING THE DAY IN THE HUMID PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND THE COAST SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT DEEPER. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT GIVEN SOMEWHAT WEAK FORCING AND LARGER STORM MOTION VALUES THAN THOSE OF RECENT DAYS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. ALOFT THE 5H TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING THE FRONT OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT...EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTH. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WED WILL BE REINFORCED THU AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP IS NOT IDEAL THE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A WEDGE LIKE SCENARIO. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD AND POSSIBLY LIGHT RAIN IN THE AREA MID WEEK. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND FRI/SAT SETTING UP A MORE CLASSIC WEDGE PATTERN BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES AND CLOUDS DECREASE. THE PARENT HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SUN BUT AN ELONGATED PORTION OF THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST IS INCREASING AS THE GFS/ECMWF COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH EVEN HERE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WED/THU COULD LEAD TO AN OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP IS GOING TO BE HARD TO COME BY. THE STALLED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW ARE LIKELY TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE REGION. DO NOT PLAN MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHC LOW CHC ALONG THE COAST TO DRY INLAND. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...1-3KFT MVFR CIGS BLANKET OUR CWA THIS EVENING AS LIGHT N-NE FLOW REINFORCES A SHALLOW LAYER OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS LOWERING TO IFR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WHERE LOWEST CIGS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THEIR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. KFLO AND KCRE/KMYR WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS DROP BELOW 1KFT AFTER 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK MON. TEMPO IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KILM/KLBT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 1-2KFT CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY IFR FOR KILM/KLBT ATTM. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RA/DZ...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PCPN OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MON MORNING... BUT CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS AFTER MIDDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY...REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...THE NE SURGE IS ON ITS LAST LEGS WITH RECENT GUSTS STILL REPORTED AS HIGH AS 14 KNOTS AT BALD HEAD ISLAND AND 19 KNOTS AT THE OFFSHORE LEJEUNE BUOY. I HAVE ADJUSTED SEAS UPWARD BY ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS... NE WIND-SPEEDS SHOULD ABATE SEVERAL KNOTS AS THE SURGE PLAYS OUT BUT COUNT ON 15 KT OF WIND OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY GOING MORE TO THE N INTO EARLY MONDAY. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FEET EXCEPT 3-4 FT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. SEAS A MIX OF ENE WAVES 2-2.5 FT EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8 SECONDS. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND MIST COULD LIMIT VSBYS EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NC WATERS. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAKENING/DISSOLVING FRONT TO MAKE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT WINDS ON MONDAY. INITIALLY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY, THEY WILL THEN TEND TO VEER AS THE DAY WEARS ON, WITH THIS VEER MOST PRONOUNCED OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE. A LIGHT PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GET ESTABLISHED BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WAS ORIGINALLY SLATED FOR TUESDAY BUT NOW LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER AND ALSO TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DURING ITS TUESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. BOTH FACTORS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL SLOWER SENSE OF VEERING. A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED IT SEEMS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOCAL SWAN IMPLIED A NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NE WIND WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD. MUCH PREFER THE SUB-SCEC SEAS ADVERTISED IN EARLIER FORECAST GIVEN THAT POST FRONTAL WINDS SHOULD HAVE TROUBLE EXCEEDING 15KT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY....ANTICIPATE SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY INCREASE WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS START OUT 10 TO 15 KT BUT BY MIDDAY SHOULD BE A SOLID 15 KT. WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ON STALLED FRONT COMBINED WITH THE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH WILL FURTHER PINCH THE GRADIENT LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SOLID 20 KT THU NIGHT. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON FRI AS HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE COAST WITH NORTHEAST FLOW APPROACHING 25 KT. SEAS START OUT 3 TO 6 FT BUT COULD BUILD TO 7 FT IN PLACES AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AND SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD REACHES THE WATERS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...BJR

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