Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 280525 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 125 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dry cold front will cross the area late tonight and move offshore Friday morning. High pressure will follow for the weekend with above normal temperatures expected. Another dry cold front should move across the area on Monday. High pressure will build in from the north following the second front but cold air is limited and above normal temperatures will continue. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 700 PM Thursday...Temps dropping slowly this evening in a warm and moist return flow ahead of approaching front. Westerly winds aloft carrying some mid to high clouds eastward across the area. Previous discussion remains on target...High pressure continuing to ridge down the coast will slowly retreat to the NE ahead of a cold front which will drop across the Carolinas tonight. Actual FROPA is not forecast until very early Friday, likely beyond the near term at the coast, so a relatively warm night is forecast thanks to persistent SW winds ahead of this feature. Mins tonight will range from the low 60s at the coast to mid 50s inland, with increased cloud cover in the vicinity of the boundary also preventing strong cooling. Guidance is keeping all precip to the north of the CWA, and forecast profiles suggest only limited moisture beneath 850mb. Have kept POP silent, but if an isolated shower or two did develop late, especially in the Cape Fear area, would not be entirely shocked. However, confidence and coverage does not warrant any mention of 0.01 QPF. Some light fog will be possible tonight, especially inland, but BL winds will prevent anything more than isolated. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Cold front will cross offshore very early Friday morning, such that the entire area will be in cool NW flow by late morning. Dry and cool high pressure builds in quickly behind this front as mid-level flow remains fast. This will produce a very sunny day on Friday with PWATs falling to 0.5-0.75 inches, but little temperature change is expected. Highs on Friday will remain above climo, 75-80 across the area, but it will be very comfortable in the dry air. This high pressure moves overhead and then offshore during Saturday as mid-level pattern becomes amplified thanks to ridging blossoming from the Gulf Coast. This will lead to a warmer day than Friday, aided by W/NW flow aloft causing some downslope warming. Abundant sunshine is again expected, and highs Saturday will likely climb above 80 inland, and into the upper 70s near the coast. A sea breeze will develop, but will likely remain pinned at the coast. Mins Friday night will radiate into the low 50s, remaining several degrees warmer Saturday night thanks light return flow. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Ridge overhead with plenty of dry air and subsidence on Sunday, combined with deep westerly flow aloft, return flow around sfc high and plenty of sunshine will spell out a very warm day. The warmest day of the period with temps reaching into the 80s and possibly mid 80s in spots. The surface high will continue to migrate east through Sun night as a shortwave drives a dry cold front toward the area. Looks like this front will drop south through the area overnight with a deeper NW to northerly flow developing through Mon morning and ridge building in quickly behind it. This will bring in slightly lower dewpoint air shaving off a few degrees, but will maintain warm weather as high pressure extends down into the Carolinas through mid week. Expect a slightly cooler feel to the air for Halloween but overall a mild day and upcoming week ahead. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 06Z...Slight potential for brief patchy MVFR fog around daybreak, especially inland. Otherwise, VFR through the valid TAF period. A dry cold front poised to cross the area will move offshore later this morning. Guidance has backed off isolated showers with fropa and a look at latest radar trends upstream supports the little to no shower potential idea. Have removed mention of VCSH at all sites but keeping inland MVFR fog. VFR conditions after daybreak with westerly winds becoming west-northwesterly under 10 kt. Only exception will be coastal SC sites where weak sea breeze will overpower the light northwest flow. There is potential for a few hours of southeast winds around 10 kt in the afternoon. Extended Outlook...VFR expected.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 700 PM Thursday...High pressure offshore and retreating to the NE is allowing light winds to veer slowly from SE to SW this evening. Wind speeds are 10 kts or less at the buoys, and no significant increase in speed is forecast even as winds shift to the SW. A cold front approaching from the NW will be near the coast at the end of the near term, with continued slowly veering to the west by Friday morning. Seas will feature predominantly a SE swell/S wind wave, producing 2-3 ft seas. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Cold front will move across the waters early Friday, followed by large high pressure for the remainder of the short term. Winds will feature a large variety of directions this period, NW to NE on Friday, and then veering back to the SW as the high shifts overhead and offshore late Saturday. The strongest winds will be during Friday, with 10-15 kts speeds expected, falling to 5- 10 as the gradient weakens Saturday. Seas will be 2-3 ft regardless of wind direction, but may be a bit more choppy on Friday thanks to the slightly enhanced N/NE winds. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...High pressure on Sunday will migrate east as a cold front approaches from the north Sun night. Light southwest flow ahead of the front through Sun will shift around to the north by Mon morning once front pushes south. Without much in the way of CAA, do not expect any increase in winds or seas through the day on Monday, but as the high shifts east, gradient tightens a bit with a slight increase in NE winds Mon night into Tuesday. This will push seas up slightly from less than 3 ft to near 4 ft in outer waters. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...III MARINE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.