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172
FXUS62 KILM 091805
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
205 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Shower and thunderstorm chances once again this afternoon and
evening. with even better storm chances Thursday and possibly
Friday. Rain chances decrease slightly for the weekend, but
afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain a fixture into the
middle of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The mid-level ridge axis will become increasingly suppressed to the
south as a shortwave trough pushes across the Ohio Valley through
tonight and reaches the central Appalachians around midday Thursday.
At the surface, Bermuda high pressure will maintain south-
southwesterly winds through Thursday, keeping near-seasonable heat
and humidity in place with highs around 90F and lows in the low-mid
70s.

With respect to convection, isolated to scattered shower and
thunderstorm development for the remainder of today should focus
mainly in South Carolina around and west of I-95, although isolated
activity cannot be ruled out along the sea breeze. Tonight into
tomorrow morning, another round of land breeze showers and isolated
storms near the Cape Fear coast appears likely as capping weakens
near the coast, with these moving onshore late in the night into
Thursday morning. From midday Thursday onward, isolated pop-up
showers and storms can be expected inland as 2000-3000 J/kg of
SBCAPE develops, with outflow helping to develop new storms. As the
aforementioned shortwave crosses the Appalachians, numerous showers
and storms are likely across the Piedmont west of our area, which
could loosely organize into a line as bulk shear increases to modest
levels due to the shortwave. This line shifting eastward would bring
an isolated severe wind threat with it, although decreasing shear
with eastward extent means this line will likely be weakening as it
pushes into the area, most likely after the evening commute. The
Storm Prediction Center has highlighted inland areas in a "slight"
risk (threat level 2 out of 5) for severe weather, with a decreasing
risk towards the coast. Although an isolated pop-up storm ahead of
this line could become strong to severe, weak shear will limit storm
strength and longevity.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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High pops remain in the forecast for Thursday evening
well into the overnight hours via convection that develops during
the day. As for Friday and Saturday some guidance is still hinting
at a drier forecast but the preferred NBM solution remains very
active and continued with the higher pops especially Friday. Thermal
profiles have trended a bit cooler perhaps from expected convection
thus the need for any heat related headlines has diminished slightly.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The region remains in a very subtle weakness aloft and
the forecast remains mostly unchanged. If there are any noticeable
trends the pops are slightly lower on Sunday and Monday but only
incrementally so. Thermal profiles continue to support low end
chances of a heat headline or two noting that subtle changes in
convective coverage along with daytime mixing heights will have the
final say.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR conditions will prevail through much of the TAF period, outside
of any restrictions due to a passing shower or thunderstorm. The
most likely terminal to see any vis restrictions from now through
this evening due to a heavy thunderstorm is KFLO, with lesser
chances at KLBT and very low chances at the coastal terminals.
Overnight, MVFR to IFR stratus is likely to develop again at the
inland terminals, with lower confidence in low cigs at the coastal
sites. Land breeze showers and thunderstorms should develop just
offshore during the latter half of the night, although whether these
will directly affect the ILM terminal carries low to moderate
confidence at this time. Any early morning shower or storm would
bring transient vis and cig restrictions potentially into the IFR to
LIFR range. Beyond the early morning low stratus, VFR conditions
should return around or soon after 12Z with diurnal cumulus lifting
to or above 3kft by the end of the period.

Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible
each day due to daytime convection and potential early morning
fog/stratus.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Through Tomorrow...
Bermuda high pressure over the Central Atlantic
will maintain generally south winds over the waters through the
period, with speeds around 15-20 kts on Thursday as the pressure
gradient tightens somewhat. Thus, southerly wind waves of 1-3 ft can
be expected through the remainder of today and tonight. 2-4 ft seas
are expected Thursday afternoon as winds increase due to a
tightening pressure gradient well ahead of a cold front over the
Ohio Valley.


Thursday Night through Monday...
Summertime pattern continues for the marine community
through the period. Outside of some sea breeze accelerations and
distorted wind fields from convection south to southwest winds of 10-
15 knots will generally be the case. There remain some indications
winds could be even lighter or concentrated more toward the lower
end of the range next week. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...SHK/ABW