-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 241704
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1204 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST
LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIND AND
RAIN OVERNIGHT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE FRONT IS NOW OFF THE COAST WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
HAS ENDED WITH ONLY A FEW SMALL AREAS LINGERING OVER COASTAL NC.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS A SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS INLAND NC/SC. ALTHOUGH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DESPITE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STABLE DRY LAYER
FROM ROUGHLY 850 TO 700 MB...A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEEPENING LOW. DESPITE THE SUBSIDENCE THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE AND HAS SOME MOISTURE WITH IT.
GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF PVA AROUND PEAK HEATING CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY INLAND. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING POP TO ZERO FOR THE
EVENING.

GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL STEADILY
INCREASE WHILE ALONG THE COAST A SLIGHT DIP DURING THE LATE
MORNING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SUNDAY OFFERS UP SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE PATTERN IS RATHER WEAK AHEAD OF A
SLIGHTLY OCCLUDED CLIPPER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM NW TO SE SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS RAPIDLY...AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES. IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BENEFIT FROM ANY GULF OR
ATLANTIC MOISTURE...BUT WILL STILL BRING ISO TO SCT SHOWERS FROM THE
STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS IS THROUGH
BY 18Z MONDAY BUT SINCE THE SYSTEM IS OCCLUDED THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO NECESSITATE THE LOW POPS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF MONDAY...AGAIN STRESSING THAT COVERAGE AND QPF WILL BOTH BE QUITE
LOW. THOUGH TECHNICALLY OFFERING A SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURE
MONDAY MAY FEATURE FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS
EARLY MONDAY WILL CARRY AN ARCTIC FRONT EAST ACROSS AND FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE COAST EARLY MON AFTN WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE
RIDING RIGHT OVER CAPE FEAR. THIS SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT ANY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE LEAVING A LOW END CHC OF PCP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
AFTN. BY EVENING PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA IN DEEP N-NW FLOW AS WE TAP INTO AN ARCTIC AIR MASS. LOOKS
LIKE 850 TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW 0C FROM MON EVE UNTIL THURS MORNING.
THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL COME ON TUES AS 850 TEMPS REACH AS LOW AS
-7 C. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S MOST PLACES BOTH TUES AND
WED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD KEEPING POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS THROUGH TUES BEFORE THE
AIR MASS DRIES OUT COMPLETELY IN REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AND DRY
AIR. PCP WATER VALUES DROP DOWN FROM CLOSE TO A HALF INCH ON MON
DOWN TO NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR WED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON THURS WILL ALLOW AIR MASS TO MODIFY
BRIEFLY AND WARM SLIGHTLY BACK TOWARD NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 50S BUT
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY KNOCKING TEMPS BACK
DOWN AGAIN.THIS FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE AND
SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN PCP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...CIGS AOB 600-700 FEET WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT
RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT KFLO/KLBT THROUGH 16-17Z. THERE COULD
BE TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS/VFR VSBYS WILL OCCUR BY 17Z AS RAIN ENDS. WINDS
WILL BE WNW-NW AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT TOWARDS
16Z. VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

COASTAL TERMINALS WILL HAVE HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNTIL
FROPA 13Z AT KCRE/KMYR AND AROUND 14Z AT KILM. GENERALLY MVFR
CIGS/MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTY SW
WINDS TO 25-35KT. TEMPO IFR IS LIKELY IN SHOWERS BEFORE FROPA. POST
FRONTAL CIGS 400-600 FEET LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS UNTIL SHOWERS
TAPER OFF 15-16Z. MVFR EXPECTED 16-17Z WITH VFR IN THE
MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW-NW AROUND 10 KT...BECOMING
GUSTY TO AROUND 25 KT TOWARDS 17Z.

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON SUN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. VFR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS TUE/WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF NOON SATURDAY...HAVE ALLOWED GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE WHICH
HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A SCA THROUGH 06Z. ALTHOUGH GALE WARNING IS
NO LONGER IN EFFECT ISOLATED GUSTS OF GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS NC WATERS. SC WATERS MAY
FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BEFORE 06Z.

CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS
GRADUALLY DECREASING AS GRADIENT RELAXES. SPEEDS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT
POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WIND COMPONENT WILL BE OFFSHORE THE STRENGTH OF
THE WINDS IS LIKELY TO KEEP 6 FT AND HIGHER SEAS WITHIN 20 NM.
WINDS SPEEDS DROP UNDER 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT AND TO 10 TO 15 KT BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE REDUCTION IN WIND
SPEEDS...FALLING TO 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL NEED FOR LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR LOW
TIDE LATER TODAY. LATEST FORECAST KEEP ALL SITES JUST ABOVE LOW
WATER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SUNDAY
FOLLOWING RATHER ACTIVE NEAR TERM WEATHER AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOC
WITH BIG STORM IN NEW ENGLAND FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND OUT OF OUR
AREA. WHAT REMAINS IS LIGHTER FLOW THAT BACKS IN DIRECTION AS THE
DAY WEARS ON IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT FLOW WILL TURN TO SW AND PICK UP BUT NOT QUITE TO
CAUTIONARY LEVELS. MULTI-CENTERED LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EARLY
MONDAY WITH A W TO NW COOL SURGE THEREAFTER. LATEST GUIDANCE A
LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ENSUING WINDS AND SEAS AND AN
ADVISORY PROBABLY NOT GOING TO MATERIALIZE EVEN THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO
25KT APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN THE WELL-ALIGNED LOW LEVEL FLOW.


LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
EARLY MONDAY WITH A DEEP COLD NW TO N FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH MID
WEEK. SHOULD SEE GUSTY NW WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS. SEAS
AROUND 3 TO 5 FT WILL KICK SEAS UP BRIEFLY BUT THE OFF SHORE
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME THROUGH TUES AS WINDS VEER MORE TO THE
NORTH AND GRADIENT SLACKENS...BUT A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AND DRY
AIR WILL COME TUES NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH
WED. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS
AGAIN TUES NIGHT INTO WED WITH SEAS APPROACHING SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
 256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR