-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 221000
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
600 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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WARMER TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES TROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE
NEAR TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITING THIS MORNING AND A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE W TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVE AND ACROSS THE MORE
COASTAL LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE BRIEF AND RATHER MEAGER. EXAMINATION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATES A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS GENERALLY NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH
SOME MOISTENING IS EXPECTED ABOVE 5-6 KFT...BELOW THAT LEVEL...IT
REMAINS CONSIDERABLY DRIER. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ONLY MANAGE TO
REACH UP TO 300 TO 400 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...WITH
LOWER VALUES NEARER TO THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR
SMALL CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE INLAND
AND THIS EVE AT THE COAST. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT ON DEVELOPING NW TO N WINDS AND THIS WILL END THE RISK
FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE A WARM DAY FOR LATE APRIL WITH AN INCREASING SW FLOW
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH. EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...ALBEIT MAINLY THIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY...EXPECT TEMPS WILL REACH 80 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THANKS
TO A SOUTHWEST BREEZE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. A DEVELOPING RESULTANT SEABREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACHES OF
BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY COOLER... MAINLY
MID 70S. THE REMAINDER OF THE BEACHES MAY REACH THE UPPER 70S AS
THE SEABREEZE WILL BE PINNED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT...CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BALMY EVE TEMPS SHOULD DROP
TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S BY WED MORNING.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OFF NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY. CLOSER TO HOME WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO BEHIND
TUESDAY NIGHT COOL FRONT BUT THE RAPID DRYING SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD A PRETTY CHILLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. DESPITE
SOME BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT HEADING INTO THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH
PUSHES IN FROM THE N AND BRINGS A VERY WEAK SENSE OF CAA. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE CAPPED A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS THAT SHOULD
PRECLUDE AS COOL A NIGHT AS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW CLIMO.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WARM WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS DEVELOPING
PIEDMONT TROUGH SERVES TO ENHANCE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN. IN THE STILL ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
DISTURBANCES THAT COULD TOUCH OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION. SATURDAY
LOOKS WARM AS WELL WITH LIGHT SWRLY FLOW AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE N. MODELS TEND TO KEEP THIS BOUNDARY JUST FAR
ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO PRECLUDE ANY REAL RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY BUT
THEY DO INDICATE THAT ADDED CLOUD COVER AND SUPPRESSED HEIGHTS
TEMPER THE WARMTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...POSSIBLE MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
DUE TO PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WITH A RISK OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT REGARDING FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT HAVE KEPT TEMPO
GROUPS AT ALL SITES FOR POSSIBLE MVFR FOG. AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY FOG
THAT REMAINS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE GIVING WAY TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH
VCSH POSSIBLE FOR THE INLAND SITES INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN
THE COASTAL SITES AFTERWARDS AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS
WELL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR OVERNIGHT. VFR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
TODAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL FINALLY ALLOW WINDS TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY BACK TO SW WITH
THE STRONGEST SW WINDS EXPECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE EVE HOURS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO A FAMILIAR NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
STILL IN COMPARISON TO RECENT DAYS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE THAT TIGHT AND WILL CAP WIND SPEEDS AT 15 TO 20 KT. WINDS
SHOULD BE GUSTIEST IN VICINITY OF THE PINNED RESULTANT AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. BACKSWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED TODAY AND WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO ADD A FOOT OR SO TO THE OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS ONCE WIND
SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED...WILL FORECAST SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT FOR JUST
ABOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
OUTERMOST WATERS AND UP TO 6 FT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE/NWRLY FLOW WEDNESDAY FROM BOTH
EXPANSIVE STORM OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WEAK HIGH BUILDING INTO
GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY. AS RIDGE AXIS FROM THIS HIGH POKES INTO THE
CAROLINAS FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK AND SEAS RAPIDLY DROP OFF TO
JUST 2 FT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY
BUT REMAINS PROXIMAL ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUATION OF JUST 2 FT WAVES AS
THE FLOW ACQUIRES A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SWRLY FLOW INITIALLY VERY LIGHT ON FRIDAY BUT A
DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND ADD
PERHAPS A CATEGORY OR TWO OF WIND SPEED. EXPECTING NO HIGHER THAN A
15-20 KT FCST WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR 2-4FT WAVES. THIS TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE COAST AND WASHES OUT ON SATURDAY ONCE AGAIN RELAXING
THE GRADIENT AND PERHAPS DROPPING A FOOT OFF THE HIGH END OF THE SIG
WAVE FCST.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL/RJD