Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 221000 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 600 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARMER TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES TROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE NEAR TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITING THIS MORNING AND A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVE AND ACROSS THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BRIEF AND RATHER MEAGER. EXAMINATION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS GENERALLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH SOME MOISTENING IS EXPECTED ABOVE 5-6 KFT...BELOW THAT LEVEL...IT REMAINS CONSIDERABLY DRIER. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ONLY MANAGE TO REACH UP TO 300 TO 400 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...WITH LOWER VALUES NEARER TO THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR SMALL CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE INLAND AND THIS EVE AT THE COAST. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON DEVELOPING NW TO N WINDS AND THIS WILL END THE RISK FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE A WARM DAY FOR LATE APRIL WITH AN INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH. EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER...ALBEIT MAINLY THIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS WILL REACH 80 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THANKS TO A SOUTHWEST BREEZE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. A DEVELOPING RESULTANT SEABREEZE WILL KEEP THE BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY COOLER... MAINLY MID 70S. THE REMAINDER OF THE BEACHES MAY REACH THE UPPER 70S AS THE SEABREEZE WILL BE PINNED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHT...CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BALMY EVE TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S BY WED MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY. CLOSER TO HOME WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO BEHIND TUESDAY NIGHT COOL FRONT BUT THE RAPID DRYING SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD A PRETTY CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. DESPITE SOME BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT HEADING INTO THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES IN FROM THE N AND BRINGS A VERY WEAK SENSE OF CAA. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE CAPPED A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS THAT SHOULD PRECLUDE AS COOL A NIGHT AS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW CLIMO.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WARM WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH SERVES TO ENHANCE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN THE STILL ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT COULD TOUCH OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION. SATURDAY LOOKS WARM AS WELL WITH LIGHT SWRLY FLOW AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. MODELS TEND TO KEEP THIS BOUNDARY JUST FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO PRECLUDE ANY REAL RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY BUT THEY DO INDICATE THAT ADDED CLOUD COVER AND SUPPRESSED HEIGHTS TEMPER THE WARMTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...POSSIBLE MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH A RISK OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT REGARDING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL SITES FOR POSSIBLE MVFR FOG. AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY FOG THAT REMAINS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE GIVING WAY TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH VCSH POSSIBLE FOR THE INLAND SITES INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN THE COASTAL SITES AFTERWARDS AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR OVERNIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL FINALLY ALLOW WINDS TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY BACK TO SW WITH THE STRONGEST SW WINDS EXPECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVE HOURS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO A FAMILIAR NORTHERLY DIRECTION. STILL IN COMPARISON TO RECENT DAYS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE THAT TIGHT AND WILL CAP WIND SPEEDS AT 15 TO 20 KT. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTIEST IN VICINITY OF THE PINNED RESULTANT AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. BACKSWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED TODAY AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ADD A FOOT OR SO TO THE OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS ONCE WIND SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED...WILL FORECAST SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS AND UP TO 6 FT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE/NWRLY FLOW WEDNESDAY FROM BOTH EXPANSIVE STORM OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WEAK HIGH BUILDING INTO GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY. AS RIDGE AXIS FROM THIS HIGH POKES INTO THE CAROLINAS FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK AND SEAS RAPIDLY DROP OFF TO JUST 2 FT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY BUT REMAINS PROXIMAL ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUATION OF JUST 2 FT WAVES AS THE FLOW ACQUIRES A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SWRLY FLOW INITIALLY VERY LIGHT ON FRIDAY BUT A DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND ADD PERHAPS A CATEGORY OR TWO OF WIND SPEED. EXPECTING NO HIGHER THAN A 15-20 KT FCST WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR 2-4FT WAVES. THIS TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND WASHES OUT ON SATURDAY ONCE AGAIN RELAXING THE GRADIENT AND PERHAPS DROPPING A FOOT OFF THE HIGH END OF THE SIG WAVE FCST.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL/RJD

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