-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 181411
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1011 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWARD TO UPSTATE
SC...WITH A STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE FROM THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF
SYSTEM HAS ADVANCED NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE SC-GA STATE LINE. THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE 06Z NAM AND GFS IN REGARDS TO HOW THIS
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...AND THE RESULTS
ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED RAINFALL TOTALS. THE
NAM SUGGESTS THE UPPER LOW WILL CAPTURE THE SURFACE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN GA LATE TONIGHT AND KEEP IT ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK...ALONG WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST RAINFALL. THE GFS
DEPICTION CONTINUES THE NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE
LOW ...NOT BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW UNTIL
MUCH LATER. THIS WOULD BRING THE AXIS OF HIGHEST RAINFALL MUCH
CLOSER TO THE CWA. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GFS...LENDING CONFIDENCE TO THAT SOLUTION.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A LID ON MAX TEMPS. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST AREAS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MOVED
ONSHORE THIS MORNING...AND POPS WILL TREND UP RAPIDLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
RESULTING LACK OF DIRECT ONSHORE FLOW REDUCES THE CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION FOR THE ILM CWA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST EXITING THE COAST OF GEORGIA BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AND SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E-NE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AT THE
SAME TIME AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED FARTHER
SOUTH BUT WILL NOT KEEP IT FROM SPREADING RAIN INTO THE CAROLINAS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
KEEP A DECENT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE BEST LIFT
WILL COME THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
BUT MAY SEE SOME DRY AIR GET WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS LATER IN THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAKENING
LIFT AND SOME DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THE LOW WILL SHIFT
ALMOST DUE EAST FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO GET WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW BUT BEST LIFT WILL BE
DISPLACED TO THE EAST. THEREFORE EXPECT CLOUDS AND LINGERING PCP
HEADING INTO SUNDAY BUT WILL KEEP GREATEST QPF EAST. THE STIFF
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO
LOCAL AREA WITH PCP WATER VALUES UP TO 1.75 INCHES FOCUSED MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST SAT MORNING DIMINISHING TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT
EVENING AND DOWN LESS THAN A HALF INCH AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE NAM KEEPS DRY AIR
FURTHER TO THE NORTH. OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH GREATEST QPF ON SATURDAY
BUT LINGERING PCP INTO SUNDAY. EXPECTING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT...WITH QPF EVENT TOTALS IN THE 1.0 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S BOTH DAYS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT BUILDS SOUTH
INTO AREA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OUT TO SEA ON
MONDAY. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH
MONDAY. A DRIER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE
SKY LEAVING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND CUTOFF
LOW WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BACK THROUGH
TUES AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST. SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AT THE SURFACE AHEAD
OF PROGRESSING FRONT. THE WINDS ALOFT REMAIN MORE WESTERLY KEEPING
MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...BUT HAVE INCLUDED
INCREASED CHC FOR CONVECTION ON TUES AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT. THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN W-NW KEEPING A WARMER DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW WITH HEIGHTS RISING INTO MID WEEK AS MID TO UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD.

OVERALL EXPECT WARMER MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. ONLY REAL CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP WILL COME ON TUES WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF WARM APRIL
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS REACHING UP WELL INTO THE 70S MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH SPREADS MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTH
ACROSS THE TERMINALS. CIGS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL BE 4-6K
OR HIGHER. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THERE IS LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE
CIGS AROUND 2.5K FT COULD OCCUR.

MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
ALL AGREE THAT GENERALLY STRATIFORM RAIN WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. PATCHES OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY 20-21Z...ONE TO THREE
HOURS LATER FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD PRODUCE FAIRLY STEADY STRATIFORM PRECIP WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AND IFR OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT AT LEAST PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS FRIDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER WELL INTO SUNDAY. VFR
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS INDICATE WIND SPEEDS IN A 10-15 KNOT RANGE NEAR
SHORE...INCREASING TO A 20-25 KNOT RANGE AT 41013. SEAS WERE IN A
4-7 FT RANGE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT AND
SEAS WILL BUILD ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE A NORTHEAST TRACK OUT OF THE GULF...BRINGING IT
TO A POSITION NEAR THE GA COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE GULF COAST EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE OUTERMOST WATERS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME
VARIABLE WINDS AS TROUGH EXTENDS UP FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE OFF SHORE WATERS. MAY SEE WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY BUT AS NEXT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WINDS WILL
INCREASE. AS WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SAT AFTN SEAS MAY DROP NEAR
OR JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BEFORE SHOOTING UP ONCE AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SEAS 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH SAT
BEFORE RAPIDLY RISING THROUGH LATE SAT UP TO 7 TO 9 FT. WNA HAS
SEAS PEAKING UP TO 10 FT SUN MORNING AS NORTHERLY WINDS REACH 25
TO 30 KTS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO COME DOWN BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THEREFORE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP OUT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BACK
AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. SHOULD SEE A
MODERATE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. ONCE FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUES INTO
WED OFF SHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING NEAR SHORE SEAS TO DROP
OUT WHILE OFF SHORE SEAS MAY RISE A BIT. OVERALL EXPECT SEAS TO
DIMINISH THROUGH MON WITH A RISE IN WINDS AND SEAS TUES INTO WED IN
SW FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT HEADING INTO WED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR