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267
FXUS62 KILM 100116
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
916 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm chances once again this afternoon and
evening. with even better storm chances Thursday and possibly
Friday. Rain chances decrease slightly for the weekend, but
afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain a fixture into the
middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Main concern for this update was the hourly POP/SKY/WX
for the remainder of this evening thru the overnight hrs.
Using the latest 88D trends and high res hourly guidance. Have
indicated a slow decline of POPs inland. However, adjacent Atl
waters, KLTX radar lighting up with pcpn mainly focused within
cloud streets via our AWIPS "tiled" sat imagery trends. Look
for the inland pcpn to further decline by the predawn hrs while
some of those cloud/pcpn streets skirt the coast during the
predawn Thu hrs, up thru several hrs after daybreak. The Cape
Fear area looks to further light up once the days insolation
commences Thu. Have also highlighted the HWO for the SLGT risk
of severe tstorms Thu, mainly inland. Damaging winds and heavy
rainfall producing localized flooding are the primary burdens.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The mid-level ridge axis will become increasingly suppressed to the
south as a shortwave trough pushes across the Ohio Valley through
tonight and reaches the central Appalachians around midday Thursday.
At the surface, Bermuda high pressure will maintain south-
southwesterly winds through Thursday, keeping near-seasonable heat
and humidity in place with highs around 90F and lows in the low-mid
70s.

With respect to convection, isolated to scattered shower and
thunderstorm development for the remainder of today should focus
mainly in South Carolina around and west of I-95, although isolated
activity cannot be ruled out along the sea breeze. Tonight into
tomorrow morning, another round of land breeze showers and isolated
storms near the Cape Fear coast appears likely as capping weakens
near the coast, with these moving onshore late in the night into
Thursday morning. From midday Thursday onward, isolated pop-up
showers and storms can be expected inland as 2000-3000 J/kg of
SBCAPE develops, with outflow helping to develop new storms. As the
aforementioned shortwave crosses the Appalachians, numerous showers
and storms are likely across the Piedmont west of our area, which
could loosely organize into a line as bulk shear increases to modest
levels due to the shortwave. This line shifting eastward would bring
an isolated severe wind threat with it, although decreasing shear
with eastward extent means this line will likely be weakening as it
pushes into the area, most likely after the evening commute. The
Storm Prediction Center has highlighted inland areas in a "slight"
risk (threat level 2 out of 5) for severe weather, with a decreasing
risk towards the coast. Although an isolated pop-up storm ahead of
this line could become strong to severe, weak shear will limit storm
strength and longevity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pops remain in the forecast for Thursday evening
well into the overnight hours via convection that develops during
the day. As for Friday and Saturday some guidance is still hinting
at a drier forecast but the preferred NBM solution remains very
active and continued with the higher pops especially Friday. Thermal
profiles have trended a bit cooler perhaps from expected convection
thus the need for any heat related headlines has diminished slightly.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The region remains in a very subtle weakness aloft and
the forecast remains mostly unchanged. If there are any noticeable
trends the pops are slightly lower on Sunday and Monday but only
incrementally so. Thermal profiles continue to support low end
chances of a heat headline or two noting that subtle changes in
convective coverage along with daytime mixing heights will have the
final say.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR/MVFR conditions to dominate the remainder of the evening as
pcpn slowly comes to an end across or in the vicinity of the
inland terminals. However, the coastal terminals will observe
periodic onshore movement of shra through the evening,
potentially increasing in coverage during the predawn hrs as
well as intensity, especially after daybreak Thu. Will indicate
a tstorm threat generally between 09z-14z with prob30s and
possibly a tempo group for ILM terminal. The issue inland
overnight will be the potential for low stratus, sub 1k ft
ceilings along with patchy ground fog, mainly between 09z and
13z. Thu is looking like better coverage of shra/tsra than Wed
across the area, early morning for the coastal terminals, and
then area wide during the afternoon and continuing well into the
evening. Looking at S 5 to 10 kt this evening becoming SSW-SW 4
to 9 kt overnight into daylight Thu morning. Winds become SSW
up to 10 kt inland terminals, 10-15 kt at the coastal terminals,
during Thu aftn/evening.

Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible
each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early
morning fog/stratus.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tomorrow...
Bermuda high pressure over the Central Atlantic
will maintain generally south winds over the waters through the
period, with speeds around 15-20 kts on Thursday as the pressure
gradient tightens somewhat. Thus, southerly wind waves of 1-3 ft can
be expected through the remainder of today and tonight. 2-4 ft seas
are expected Thursday afternoon as winds increase due to a
tightening pressure gradient well ahead of a cold front over the
Ohio Valley.


Thursday Night through Monday...
Summertime pattern continues for the marine community
through the period. Outside of some sea breeze accelerations and
distorted wind fields from convection south to southwest winds of 10-
15 knots will generally be the case. There remain some indications
winds could be even lighter or concentrated more toward the lower
end of the range next week. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...SHK/ABW