Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 230524 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 124 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING INCREASING RAINFALL CHANGES TO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RAIN WILL POTENTIALLY LAST INTO FRIDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...CHANGES TO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST WERE MADE TO MATCH CURRENT RADAR AND RECENT HRRR/GFS TRENDS IN PRECIP. RADAR SHOWS RAIN IS LIMITED TO THE PEE DEE REGION CURRENTLY. LITTLE SHOULD CHANGE WITH THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 5 AM...BUT MODEL TRENDS ALL POINT TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS OFFSHORE BETWEEN 5-7 AM...ADVECTING WESTWARD AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES DUE TO WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE 850-700 MB LAYER. FORECAST LOW TEMPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...PATTERN ALOFT TO BECOME SOMEWHAT OF A BOTTLE NECK ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS IN UNISON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...AND WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FA THRU WEDNESDAY. POSITIONING OF THIS CLOSED LOW ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN S GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND TO A LESSER DEGREE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SFC...STRONG 1035+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST. JUST OFFSHORE AND LINING UP NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS...WILL LIE A COASTAL TROF/FRONT. DURING THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE VIA MODEL CONSENSUS. WILL BE LOOKING AT OVERRUNNING OR ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL PRODUCE STRATIFORM-TYPE LIGHT RAINS. A SHARP GRADIENT WILL EXIST WITH RESPECT TO THE MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION ACROSS THE FA...WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN LIKELY TO OCCUR EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS. THE POSITIONING OF THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ADDITIONAL HEAVIER PCPN WILL GET PUSHED INLAND. HAVE INDICATED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE FOR ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL FRONT AND PUSHES ONSHORE. AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND ONGOING PCPN THREAT AS WELL AS THE PRESENT STRONG NE FLOW ACROSS FA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...COOL AIR WEDGE PLUS A COASTAL TROUGH SPELLS SOME RATHER UNSETTLED AND PROBABLY PRETTY COOL WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN FACT THE MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS MAY BE SHOWING THEIR BIAS TOWARDS CLIMO THAT INCREASES WITH TIME SINCE THEY PORTRAY TEMPS NEAR CLIMO BOTH DAYS...WHILE KEEPING HIGHS NEAR 70 TOMORROW IN A SIMILAR AIRMASS OFFERING UP CLOUDS AND RAIN. WILL KEEP FORECAST CLOSER TO CURRENT VALUES OF MID 70S FOR HIGHS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MOST FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST BOTH DAYS IN PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THE GFS HAS NOW BACKED OFF ALMOST COMPLETELY WITH INLAND PENETRATION OF QPF. THIS IS NOW SUPPORTED BY THE GEM AND SO MAY NEED TO BE REEVALUATED. MID LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. SUPPRESSING THE DEEP MOISTURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH LIKELY LEADING TO A RAIN-FREE WEEKEND. WHILE THE SENSE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL TECHNICALLY BE NEUTRAL OR EVEN WEAKLY COOL THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE WILL FAVOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. THE LESSER CLOUD COVER MEANWHILE COULD BRING SOME COOLER NIGHTS WHEN COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 06Z...LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA IS SPREADING SLOWLY EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE A SECOND AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BEFORE DAYBREAK...SPREADING ONSHORE 11-13Z. CEILINGS CURRENTLY 6KFT-10KFT SHOULD LOWER TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT SHOULD NOT BECOME IFR UNTIL 14Z AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL RATES DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING N-NE WINDS EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY VFR AT THE INLAND TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS AND INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...LOWERED WIND AND SEA FORECASTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS THE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WON`T DEVELOP UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. RADAR IS CLEAR OFFSHORE CURRENTLY...BUT WE SHOULD SEE THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS BETWEEN 5-8 AM...SPREADING ONSHORE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...STRONG SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES...WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEA BOARD THRU THIS PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A COASTAL TROF/FRONT WILL MANIFEST ITSELF DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS KEEP THIS BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS COASTLINES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PINCHED SFC PG ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THIS WILL PRODUCE NE TO ENE 15 TO 25 KT WINDS...WITH FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SOMEWHAT TOO EARLY FOR THE DAYSHIFT...WILL LET EITHER THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT PUT UP THE EXTENDED SCA. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD AND HOLD IN THE 3 TO 7 FOOT RANGE DEPENDING ON ONES LOCATION IN RELATION TO THE COASTLINE CONFIGURATION. OVERALL...SIG SEAS WILL BECOME MAINLY A FUNCTION OF NE TO ENE WIND WAVES EXHIBITING 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-3 FOOT GROUND SWELL AT 8+ SECOND PERIODS WILL ALSO REMAIN PRESENT. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A PINCHED NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE REGION VERY CLOSE TO THE CUSP OF SCEC HEADLINES VS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE MORE SERIOUS LATTER HEADLINE APPEARS IN THE OFFERING FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THE PERIOD WHILE CONDITIONS MAY DROP DOWN TO SCEC COME SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BE IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE MAIN AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD NE SWELL THAT WILL COEXIST WITH THE WIND WAVES...BUT BOTH WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME SHADOWING LOCALLY OFF OF HATTERAS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...DOUGH LONG TERM...BACON AVIATION...ROSS/TRA

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.