Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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389 FXUS62 KILM 221358 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 958 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid weather will prevail through mid week. An approaching cold front will bring increasing storms over the area late Wednesday into Thursday. Canadian high pressure will bring an early fall feel Friday and into the weekend. Breezy conditions may develop late Sunday into Monday, as a tropical low passes offshore and interacts with the Canadian high. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 10 AM Tuesday...Towering cumulus this morning are feeding on a stream of tropical moisture, which is depicted well in GOES-16 total precipitable water animations, winding from the western Gulf of Mexico across the southern states to the coastal Carolinas. An upper ridge was maintaining dry air above 20 Kft. Weak surface boundaries will be sufficient to activate land convection through morning near the coast with abundant moisture below 400 mb, but the developing sea breeze front will gradually become the primary focus, supporting the majority of showers and TSTMS on a trend slowly farther inland through middle and late afternoon. A broad warm ridge aloft will prevent most storms from becoming severe, but dry air entrainment could enhance the downdraft potential. The light steering winds and overall low shear will keep impacts if any localized. August heating plays a significant role today and after 6-7 pm, we should witness a weakening coverage and intensity trend in convection, becoming fair and balmy. As of 300 AM Tuesday...Light showers were hugging portions of the coast. Western Atlantic Ridge will get knocked down slightly as a series of mid-level disturbances move up along the coast. The Piedmont Trough and seabreeze will again be present. Expect most of the convection to light up along the coast today in association with the upper level shortwaves. As the seabreeze moves inland during the afternoon, expect the convection to shift more inland as well. Can`t rule out a shower or thunderstorm in the I-95 corridor today, in closest proximity to the Piedmont Trough, but again expect most of the convection will be east of this major thoroughfare. Convection should wane with stabilization of the environment this eve as a significant shortwave trough moves downstream. However, models are showing another approaching toward Wed morning. Thus will show POPs waning in the early eve with some redevelopment after midnight. Mixed signals as too how far inland convection will redevelop. Favored the coast and offshore as this is the climatologically favored area for nocturnal convection during the late summer. Will keep an open mind for inland development given approaching trough. Opted for patchy to areas of fog with significant visibility restrictions most likely inland through sunrise this morning. Highs today will be in the lower 90s with upper 80s nearer to the coast. This will put the heat index at or just over 100 degrees. Lows tonight will be mainly in the mid and upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...A cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday and move slowly through the area Wednesday night and Thursday before moving off the coast Thursday night. The result will be an unsettled period with scattered showers and thunderstorms through the period. Max temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s Wednesday will moderate to the mid to upper 80s Thursday. Lows in the mid to upper 70s Wednesday night will moderate to a range from the upper 60s NW to mid 70s SE Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...A strong Canadian anticyclone will continue to press SSE into the area through the weekend, offering a dose of a very early fall feel here with slight cooling and drying. As the strong high interacts with low pressure development off Florida, a stiff NE flow should prevail much of this period into early next week. This will keep maximums moderated, and notably milder minimums at and near the coast compared to the interior where low temperatures this weekend will dip into the 60s in many locations. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1030Z...Spotty showers along the coast have mostly dissipated while IFR ST and fog remain patchy inland. The fog and stratus should burn off by 14Z yielding mainly VFR conditions through the period though MVFR is possible in and near isolated TSRA today. Generally expect light S winds through the TAF period. Extended Outlook...Diurnal showers/tstms expected Wednesday afternoon, becoming more numerous Wednesday night and Thursday. Convective potential will decrease Friday as will any risk for flight restrictions. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 10 AM Tuesday...SE waves around 2 feet every 7 seconds dominate the wave spectrum and this trend will prevail through this evening. Isolated storms off New Hanover/ Pender counties will weaken, but we may see regeneration by pre-dawn Wednesday. A few gusts to 16-17 KT possible inshore 3-6 pm this afternoon as the sea breeze strengthens a bit. As of 300 AM Tuesday...The waters will be in between the Piedmont Trough and Western Atlantic Ridge through tonight. The seabreeze boundary will sharpen this afternoon as it moves inland into early eve. Winds speeds across the waters will increase to 10 to 15 kt late day and remain in that range through the night, being a bit gusty late day and this eve. The direction will be SW to SSW today and SW tonight. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft today and 3 to 4 ft tonight. A SE swell of 9 to 10 seconds will make a significant contribution to the overall wave heights. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Southwest winds of 10 to 15 KT are expected Wednesday and Wednesday night with a turn to a more westerly direction Thursday. Thursday night, winds will become NE 10 to 15 KT but stronger winds are possible as cooler air pushes into the area. Seas should run 2 to 3 feet through the period though 4 footers are possible Thursday night depending on the strength of the NE winds. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...This period will become fraught with challenges for marine activities as a strong Canadian high forces a cold front across the coast Thursday night. NE winds will begin to increase Friday as the Canadian high presses SSE over the waters, and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed for 25 KT gusts and 6 foot seas offshore. The strong onshore flow will likely persist into Saturday, as the high interacts with deepening low pressure off Florida, and thus maintaining rough conditions into the weekend. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...REK/SHK SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...RJD MARINE...

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