Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 151808 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 208 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA WEATHER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 2:00 PM TUESDAY...CHANCES FOR STRONG OR SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUE TO WANE AS PRECIPITATION THAT APPEARS MORE STRATIFORM THAN CONVECTIVE IN NATURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A LOOK AT THE BIGGER PICTURE SHOWS THAT A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS IS MOVING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS LINE SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. NO LIGHTNING IS DETECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OR IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM AT PRESENT AND THIS IS INDICATIVE OF LIMITED INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT HAVE DE-EMPHASIZED THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AND HAVE ALSO DECREASED OVERALL QPF TOTALS. NOW EXPECTING EVENT TOTALS IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS INLAND. EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TO MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH THE FRONT. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRIES OUT QUITE DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT POST-FROPA...ACTUALLY BY A WHOLE ORDER OF MAGNITUDE...TO AROUND 0.15 OF AN INCH BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. THE BIG NEWS AND RESULTING FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE DRAMATIC DROP IN TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BLAST OF COLD ADVECTION AS STRONG NORTH WINDS SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE UPPER AND EVEN MID 30S BY DAYBREAK. HAVE STAYED ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR OUR INLAND AREAS. GIVEN THE STRONG ONGOING MIXING AND RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO NOT SEE HOW WE CAN GET DOWN TO FREEZING AS SOME MOS NUMBERS WOULD SUGGEST. WINDS WILL ALSO PRECLUDE RISK OF FROST OVERNIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAX CAA WILL BE RUNNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS 850 TEMPS MAKE IT DOWN CLOSE TO 4C AS H5 HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT BELOW 570 DEM IN A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN WITH PCP WATER VALUES DOWN CLOSE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP A GOOD 30 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS DAY WITH READINGS BELOW 30 DEGREES BY TUES AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT A VERY COOL BUT SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. AFTER SUCH A COOL START TO THE MORNING WITH TEMPS BELOW 40 DEGREES...EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO 60 DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HEADING INTO WED NIGHT INTO THURS THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DOWN INTO THE 30S. IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WARMER GROUND TEMPS PLUS WINDS HOLDING UP A BIT OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP FROST OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANOTHER DRY DAY ON THURS WITH PCP WATER VALUES REMAINING BELOW A HALF INCH. OVERALL EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BUT AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NE-E THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS CLOSE TO THE COAST...ESPECIALLY SC COAST WITH ON SHORE FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE 60S BY THURS AFTN. BY THURS NIGHT WEDGE PATTERN SETS UP WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING AROUND TO THE S-SW SETTING THE STAGE FOR LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH IN INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH FRI MORNING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON FRIDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED IN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARMER AND MOISTER SW WINDS ALOFT RISE OVER THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE LATEST GFS KEEPS MAIN PCP WITH THIS LOW/TROUGH TO THE EAST AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI. OVERALL EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WITH A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PCP MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH FRI. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE WEAKENING DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS BUT OVERALL EXPECT JUST A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY RIDE THROUGH LATE MONDAY PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHC OF PCP AIR MASS WILL MODIFY BUT CLOUDS AND PCP ON FRI WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH TEMPS REACHING BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL BY SATURDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS CLOSER TO 50 WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 70 MOST DAYS EXCEPT WARMER ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 18Z...INLAND AREAS ARE MUCH MORE STABLE THAN THOUGHT...WITH LITERALLY NO CAPE YET. EVEN THE COAST IS LACKING CAPE. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE WINDS AND SEVERITY OF THE STORMS. SPC TOOK US OUT OF THE SLIGHT THIS MORNING..AND THIS DEFINITELY APPEARS TO BE THE RIGHT MOVE. WE STILL SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEST CHANCE FROM 20-23Z. WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT BE A GUSTY AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS EVENING LOOK FOR A FAIRLY RAPID SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF POST FRONTAL IFR STRATUS...BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT WITH SCATTERED SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 04-05Z. WEDNESDAY...NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG NORTH NORTHEAST WIND AS A WEDGE BEGINS TO SET UP TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2:00 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH 4 TO 7 FT SEAS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCES UPON THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KTS. SEAS WILL DROP BY A FOOT OR SO NEAR SHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO LIMITED FETCH...ALTHOUGH WILL STAY IN THE 6 TO 7 FT RANGE WELL OFFSHORE. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND EXITING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG N-NE WINDS THROUGH WED UP AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS TO START. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THURS AND LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH REMAIN OFF SHORE THE WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY REMAINING NE 15 TO 20 KTS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF WED SHOULD REMAIN BORDERLINE THROUGH THURS. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FRI AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN NE TO N STARTING OUT CLOSER TO 15 TO 20 KTS BUT DIMINISHING AS GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGH FRI. SEAS CLOSER TO 6 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL DROP SLOWLY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF LOW/TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA ON FRI INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP FURTHER ON SATURDAY AS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AS REINFORCING HIGH BUILDS DOWN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054- 056. NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106- 108-110. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...RAN LONG TERM...RJD AVIATION...DL MARINE...REK/RJD/RAN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.