Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 270855 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 355 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TODAY...BECOMING A STRONG WEDGE DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY BUT COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY BRINGING ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...AFTER SOME MORNING FOG...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. WITH SOME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA BELOW FREEZING...THE MIST COULD PRODUCE A LIGHT GLAZE ON AREA ROAD...MAINLY BRIDGES. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. MINS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FLAT FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO BROAD SE RIDGING THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BULGE FROM THE GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...COLD WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY THANKS TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE VENTILATING OUT THROUGH THE RISING HEIGHTS...AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...BUT COOL AND MOIST NE FLOW WILL CREATE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH TEMPS 20 DEGREES BELOW SATURDAY...AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 20S AND LOW 30S...AS COOL NE FLOW OVERCOMES THE INSULATING EFFECTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT MINS FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL...AND LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BIG TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT TWO COLD FRONTS IMPACT THE CAROLINAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS TIME AROUND NO WINTRY PRECIP AS TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE...FOR A CHANGE. COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY AND WILL STILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN EXPERIENCED THROUGH PRETTY MUCH ALL OF FEBRUARY. RIDGE OVERHEAD STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY AND DRIVES THE COLD FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. MEX HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS 80+ READINGS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING THE WARMEST DAY SINCE AT LEAST FEB 9TH...WHICH WAS THE LAST 70+ DEGREE DAY LOCALLY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT...THIS ONE STRONGER AND LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL CARRY ONLY LOW POP FOR NOW SINCE THE PRE-FRONTAL RIDGE MAY SLOW THE FROPA...BUT A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLE COLD MAY FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD IN. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS...SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS NOTED IN RECENT OBS MAY BE THE SIGNAL THAT THESE CONDITIONS ARE COMING TO AN END. TAFS DO CARRY TEMPO MVFR CIGS TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSING LOWER CIGS THROUGH 09Z OR SO. WHILE IT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...ANTICIPATE HIGH CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WINDS TOWARD DAYBREAK TO OVERALL INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE KEPT TEMPO WITH FOG IN GOING FORECAST JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WILL EXTEND SCEC NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MID MORNING FOR SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT. EXPECT N TO NE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD INVOF 15 KT TODAY AND INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT TONIGHT...PERHAPS 25 KT LATE. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT SHOULD DIMINISH TO 3 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RAMPING UP TOWARD SCA LEVELS OF 4 TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS FOR SATURDAY...AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS PINCHING THE GRADIENT. THIS DRIVES NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS AND SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT...EXCEPT IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT. THE WEDGE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH MORESO ON SUNDAY...SO ANY HEADLINES WILL BE DROPPED BY SUNDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL EASE TO 10-15 KTS AND VEER TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVE. WEDGE COMPLETELY ERODES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW WHILE REMAINING AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT MUCH OF SUNDAY...BUT THEN RISE AGAIN LATE ON THE SW WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT MOST OF THE WATERS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO 15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...RAN SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...RAN MARINE...JDW/RAN

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