Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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895 FXUS62 KILM 160157 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 857 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend into the Carolinas through Monday night. A warming trend will take place Tuesday and Wednesday in southerly winds ahead of the next cold front. Cooler and drier high pressure will build in behind this front, but low pressure moving up from the Gulf coast may produce some unsettled weather through late week into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 830 PM Sunday...The baroclinic zone is now close enough to warrant a low chance POP along the northern periphery of the ILM CWA. Also, have increased the cloud shield overnight with mostly cloudy covering the majority of the ILM CWA by midnight, based on 18Z model data and latest various Sat Imagery trends. The cloud coverage will limit the fog development and areal coverage. The southernmost portions of the ILM CWA will be the primary area to see possible fog due to skies not becoming bkn/ovc til late tonight unless a stratus deck develops in lieu of any fog or both. Nearly a 10 degree difference for overnight lows with low to mid 40s NE portions to low 50s across the SW portions. Previous.................................................... As of 330 PM Sunday...Temperatures away from the coast now well up in the 60s with even a few lower 70s for our southern areas. The coastal regions remain in the 50s due to a light onshore flow over cool coastal waters. A mix of clouds and sun will continue through the daylight hours. A weak, barely discernible front will remain stalled over the forecast area through the near term. Weak associated lift and continued low-level mositure advection will keep us in and out of clouds through the period, with the off chance of a few sprinkles overnight. Overnight temperatures will continue to run above normal, with a consensus of guidance giving us lows ranging from the mid 40s for our northern tier of counties to the mid 50s down south in Georgetown county. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Sunday...Expect a gradual warm-up from Monday to Tuesday as a weak warm front lifts north of the forecst area, with the next frontal system approaching from the west. WAA on Tuesday in advance of this front will pop highs up right around 70 most places. Temperatures on Monday will be a bit more seasonal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Sunday...Medium range guidance still points to a highly amplified, complex, and busy mid level pattern. Still timing differences between the ECMWF and GFS as would be expected with this type of scenario. However there is some growing consensus as well. Still expect a back door front to move across Wednesday on the strength of a progressive ridge in the Tennessee Valley. Some agreement now on Thursday being dry due to mid level drying. I have walked back the pops for this time period. A dampening shortwave moves across Friday with more unsettled conditions for Saturday and Sunday via the slowly ejecting shortwave (which closes off) from the southwest. Continued to advertise pops for next weekend but with the interval nature of the forcing, fine tuning will be necessary and a complete washout is not likely. Finally not much change in temperature guidance. Expect one last round of highs in the 70s Wednesday ahead of the first front. From Thursday onward expect highs in the 60s with overnight lows moreso above normal in the 40s to around 50. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 00Z...Expect conditions to deteriorate from VFR to MVFR/IFR overnight as a front remains situated across portions of the forecast area. VFR prevails across the area this evening with northeasterly winds 5 to 10 kts and mid to high clouds, SCT/BKN in nature. Latest radar imagery depicts a few light showers just north of the forecast area, and while a few raindrops could not be ruled out, confidence is low. Latest guidance continues to suggest deterioration of flight restrictions to occur overnight as stratus spreads across the area and patchy areas of fog develop. On Monday, anticipate stratus and patchy fog to linger, allowing for MVFR/IFR to prevail through the remainder of the valid TAF period. Improvement to VFR Monday evening is possible inland. East-southeasterly winds around 5 to 10 kts expected on Monday. Extended Outlook...Stratus/fog possible each morning through Tuesday. Cold front expected Wednesday, accompanied with showers and MVFR. Showers possible Friday. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 830 PM Sunday...Northeast winds will perk up across the ILM Waters, especially the ILM NC Waters and possibly further south into the ILM SC waters. This due to a quick increase in the ridging from the north. As for speeds, will see a 10 to 15 kt range possibly a more solid 15 kt from Cape Fear northward. Significant seas will run 2 to 4 ft and again be dominated by an ESE, 2 to 3 foot ground swell at 10 to 11 second periods. The wind driven waves at 4 second periods may add an overall 1 to possibly 2 feet to this ground swell. Previous................................................... As of 330 PM Sunday...A weak pressure pattern will persist as the remnants of an old front remain stalled over our southern waters. NE winds of 10 to 15 kts this afternoon will drop to around 10 kts tonight, with seas of right around 2 ft through the period. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Sunday...For Monday, high pressure centered to the north will move offshore as a weak warm front moves north across the waters. Winds will stay light Monday with seas of only around 2 ft. A frontal system approaching from the west will turn winds to the SW on Tuesday, increasing to 10 to 15 kts Tuesday night with seas increasing by about a foot. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM Sunday...Wednesday should see southwest winds of 10-15 knots (possibly a little higher for a couple of hours) ahead of a backdoor front. This front lazily moves across early Thursday with a very weak pressure pattern ensuing. This leads to essentially light and variable winds Thursday and Friday. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet Wednesday and Thursday dropping off somewhat Friday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DCH/REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL

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