Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 040608 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 208 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE UP THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR THE COAST. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1035 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: IN A BIT OF A LULL WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL EXPECTING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF RAINFALL TO MOVE IN ALONG THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. A SURFACE LOW NOW OVER THE GEORGIA COASTLINE WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE COAST AND SHOULD BE CENTERED JUST SW OF OUR FORECAST AREA...IN THE VICINITY OF BERKLEY COUNTY SC...BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS: A FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY INLAND AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THE COAST A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT OF FLORIDA RIDING UP THE COAST. THE LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE AND INCREASE THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM THIS LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FARTHER INLAND AND THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION...MOSTLY THE COASTAL AREAS. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS WHICH SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...ONCE AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. MOS NUMBERS SEEM CURIOUSLY LOW CONSIDERING THE HEAVY QPF GENERATED BY STRONG FORCING. I BRIEFLY CONTEMPLATED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COASTAL ZONES BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. BY TUESDAY EVENING THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS ANY MID LEVEL FEATURE GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END. ANOTHER DEWPOINT FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WITH MID LEVEL DRYING AS WELL...POPS WILL BE MINIMAL BUT STILL IN THE FORECAST ALBEIT AT ISOLATED COVERAGE AND INLAND. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD PRECLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ONE LAST DAY OF HEAT ON THURSDAY BUT CHANGES NOT FAR BEHIND AS A FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH (VERY POORLY REPRESENTED ON THE GFS COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE) BEARS DOWN ON THE AREA. THIS UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY LEAVE MUCH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SOME TRAILING ENERGY ALOFT WILL THEN BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THE DECELERATING BOUNDARY SHOULD TAKE UNTIL SATURDAY TO GET THROUGH. THIS IS PROBABLY THE LEAST CERTAIN FACET OF THE FORECAST AS MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON THE SENSE OF TIMING. I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE END UP REFINING THE FORECAST IN A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC DIRECTION LATER IN THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER LONGER. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS FROM LOW STRATUS/BR LEADING UP TO SUNRISE. CLOSER TO THE COAST INCLUDING THE 3 COASTAL TERMINALS...ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. THIS PCPN AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF CHS BY 12Z. WILL ILLUSTRATE THE COASTAL TERMINALS DEALING WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS...AND ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION PROGGED FOR THIS AFTN. PCPN TO PRIMARILY AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT WILL INDICATE VCNTY CONVECTION ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTN. PCPN SHOULD ALL BE NE OF THE AREA BY SUNSET TUE...WITH BENIGN CONDITIONS SLATED FOR TONIGHT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1035 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: HAVE RAISED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR OUR SC WATERS AS WE NO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT WITH 10 TO 15 KT WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS: SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST OR JUST INLAND WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS CHURNED UP FOR MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT A GOOD CLIP OF 15-20 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS EVENTUALLY TURNING A BIT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS MUCH LIGHTER...AROUND TEN KNOTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCEC SEAS TUESDAY DROPPING TO 2-4 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PUT THE REGION IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. INITIALLY THIS WILL BE CAUSED BY THE NORMAL SUMMER TIME BERMUDA HIGH BUT TRANSITION TO BEING MORE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND THEN THE FRONT ITSELF. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH ITS DECELERATION MAKES THIS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AT SOME POINT LATE IN THE PERIOD THIS FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A CONSIDERABLE VEERING IN WIND DIRECTION AND ALSO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEED. SEAS MAY NOT CHANGE HEIGHT APPRECIABLY THROUGH FROPA THOUGH THE WAVE FACES SHOULD STEEPEN AS THE CHANGING WINDS SHORTEN THE DOMINANT PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...REK/DRH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DCH

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