Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KILM 160157
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
857 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017
High pressure will extend into the Carolinas through Monday
night. A warming trend will take place Tuesday and Wednesday in
southerly winds ahead of the next cold front. Cooler and drier
high pressure will build in behind this front, but low pressure
moving up from the Gulf coast may produce some unsettled weather
through late week into next weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 830 PM Sunday...The baroclinic zone is now close enough to
warrant a low chance POP along the northern periphery of the
ILM CWA. Also, have increased the cloud shield overnight with
mostly cloudy covering the majority of the ILM CWA by midnight,
based on 18Z model data and latest various Sat Imagery trends.
The cloud coverage will limit the fog development and areal
coverage. The southernmost portions of the ILM CWA will be the
primary area to see possible fog due to skies not becoming
bkn/ovc til late tonight unless a stratus deck develops in lieu
of any fog or both. Nearly a 10 degree difference for overnight
lows with low to mid 40s NE portions to low 50s across the SW
As of 330 PM Sunday...Temperatures away from the coast now well
up in the 60s with even a few lower 70s for our southern areas.
The coastal regions remain in the 50s due to a light onshore
flow over cool coastal waters. A mix of clouds and sun will
continue through the daylight hours.
A weak, barely discernible front will remain stalled over the
forecast area through the near term. Weak associated lift and
continued low-level mositure advection will keep us in and out of
clouds through the period, with the off chance of a few sprinkles
overnight. Overnight temperatures will continue to run above normal,
with a consensus of guidance giving us lows ranging from the mid 40s
for our northern tier of counties to the mid 50s down south in
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...Expect a gradual warm-up from Monday to
Tuesday as a weak warm front lifts north of the forecst area,
with the next frontal system approaching from the west. WAA on
Tuesday in advance of this front will pop highs up right around
70 most places. Temperatures on Monday will be a bit more
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...Medium range guidance still points to a highly
amplified, complex, and busy mid level pattern. Still timing
differences between the ECMWF and GFS as would be expected with this
type of scenario. However there is some growing consensus as well.
Still expect a back door front to move across Wednesday on the
strength of a progressive ridge in the Tennessee Valley. Some
agreement now on Thursday being dry due to mid level drying. I have
walked back the pops for this time period. A dampening shortwave
moves across Friday with more unsettled conditions for Saturday and
Sunday via the slowly ejecting shortwave (which closes off) from the
southwest. Continued to advertise pops for next weekend but with the
interval nature of the forcing, fine tuning will be necessary and a
complete washout is not likely.
Finally not much change in temperature guidance. Expect one last
round of highs in the 70s Wednesday ahead of the first front. From
Thursday onward expect highs in the 60s with overnight lows moreso
above normal in the 40s to around 50.
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 00Z...Expect conditions to deteriorate from VFR to MVFR/IFR
overnight as a front remains situated across portions of the
VFR prevails across the area this evening with northeasterly winds 5
to 10 kts and mid to high clouds, SCT/BKN in nature. Latest radar
imagery depicts a few light showers just north of the forecast area,
and while a few raindrops could not be ruled out, confidence is low.
Latest guidance continues to suggest deterioration of flight
restrictions to occur overnight as stratus spreads across the area
and patchy areas of fog develop. On Monday, anticipate stratus and
patchy fog to linger, allowing for MVFR/IFR to prevail through
the remainder of the valid TAF period. Improvement to VFR Monday
evening is possible inland. East-southeasterly winds around 5 to
10 kts expected on Monday.
Extended Outlook...Stratus/fog possible each morning through
Tuesday. Cold front expected Wednesday, accompanied with showers and
MVFR. Showers possible Friday. Otherwise expect VFR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 830 PM Sunday...Northeast winds will perk up across the
ILM Waters, especially the ILM NC Waters and possibly further
south into the ILM SC waters. This due to a quick increase in
the ridging from the north. As for speeds, will see a 10 to 15
kt range possibly a more solid 15 kt from Cape Fear northward.
Significant seas will run 2 to 4 ft and again be dominated by
an ESE, 2 to 3 foot ground swell at 10 to 11 second periods.
The wind driven waves at 4 second periods may add an overall 1
to possibly 2 feet to this ground swell.
As of 330 PM Sunday...A weak pressure pattern will persist as
the remnants of an old front remain stalled over our southern
waters. NE winds of 10 to 15 kts this afternoon will drop to
around 10 kts tonight, with seas of right around 2 ft through
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...For Monday, high pressure centered
to the north will move offshore as a weak warm front moves
north across the waters. Winds will stay light Monday with seas
of only around 2 ft. A frontal system approaching from the west
will turn winds to the SW on Tuesday, increasing to 10 to 15 kts
Tuesday night with seas increasing by about a foot.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...Wednesday should see southwest winds of
10-15 knots (possibly a little higher for a couple of hours)
ahead of a backdoor front. This front lazily moves across early
Thursday with a very weak pressure pattern ensuing. This leads
to essentially light and variable winds Thursday and Friday.
Significant seas will be 2-4 feet Wednesday and Thursday
dropping off somewhat Friday.