Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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058 FXUS62 KILM 240007 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 707 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper low over the area will move northeast to off the Delmarva Coast early Tuesday, and off Cape Cod by Tuesday evening. High pressure from the south will ridge across the area Tuesday through Wednesday with temperatures rebounding above normal. A cold front will push across early Thursday followed by cool high pressure late in the week, becoming even colder during this weekend with daily temperatures dropping to below normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 7 PM Monday...Upper low slowly pushing off to the northeast, pulling the remaining rain shield off with it this evening. Showers and light rain now confined to Pender and New Hanover Counties and expect this precipitation will be rotating out of the picture over the next couple of hours. Have updated forecast accordingly. Previous discussion follows: No shortage of clouds heading into evening as W-NW flow directs plentiful upstream strato-cumulus this way. It may take until after daybreak Tuesday to significantly scour a path to clearing here, although the downslope component late tonight will begin to gouge out and tear breaks in overcast. Weak cold air advection late coupled with non-ideal radiational cooling will lead to widespread 40s at daybreak across the CWA. We will likely see an increase in low-level and surface wind- speeds overnight as a tighter pressure gradient passes through as the low departs. This should result in wind-chills in the lower 40s at school bus pick-up time. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Monday...Primary headline this period is `changeable weather` from cool and breezy sunshine Tuesday, to a warming trend and mild temperatures with sunshine Wednesday. No rain this period. Approaching cold front still west Wednesday, will prompt S-SW winds, keeping the coastal regions in the 60s, but look for maximums around 70 inland Wednesday afternoon. The progressive flow will bring a chance of a few showers along and west of I-95 late Wednesday night into early Thursday. Mild temperatures Wednesday night ahead of the front will see readings only a few degrees cooler than average highs for late January. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...A cold front Thursday will signal the return to winter with below seasonable temperatures expected to make a return beginning Friday, and persisting thereafter for quite some time. While temperatures Thursday will be above normal for the last time, the sensible weather will be impacted by a cold front which will move across the Carolinas during the late morning/early aftn. This front will likely be accompanied by showers, but QPF should be light. This front demarcates the edge of a significant longwave trough which then builds into the eastern CONUS, with periodic reinforcing shots of cold air into next week. The column becomes quite dry, so while temps will fall back into the 40s and 50s for highs, with mins at or below freezing most nights, sunshine will be bright and no precip is forecast. Still, it will be quite a shock as winter returns after 2 straight weeks of above, to well above, normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 23Z...Deep cold upper low slowly moving off to the NE across Eastern NC tonight. Moisture wrapping around this low producing some rain across KILM but this area is pulling away to the ne as well. As the low lifts to the northeast, gusty northwest winds will kick up across the terminals. With atmosphere mixing tonight have opted not to include any fog in the coastal terminals and some status may move across the region but have opted to not mention that as mixing should dry out this layer and may only see few status so did not see that as a threat to aviation to include. Extended outlook...Expect mainly VFR. A CFP with a few showers is slated for early Thu. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 7 PM Monday...Small Craft Advisory remains in effect as before, with latest obs showing seas in the 4 to 7 ft range and winds gusting up around 25 kts. Forecast continues as before, previous discussion follows: Rough marine conditions tonight as a potent low pressure pulls away from the 0-20 NM waters and produces W and NW winds. Gusts to 30 KT can be expected overnight and early Tuesday. The ocean state will remains tousled and confused as waning southerly wave energy interacts with a strong offshore chop. Isolated TSTMS will also plaque the waters, enhancing gusts and popping cloud to sea lightning, favored mostly offshore. SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Monday...Advisory flags will be flying Tuesday as a strong low pressure pulling away, maintains a grip on the region. NW winds 20 to 30 KT can be expected Tuesday. Winds will begin to ease Tuesday night as the low releases its grip on the area and improving marine conditions can be expected Tuesday through a good part of Wednesday. S-SW winds will increase however Wednesday night as a cold front rapidly approaches, and a small craft advisory may be needed Wednesday night and Thursday morning. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...A cold front crossing the waters on Thursday will create a brief period of residual SCA conditions ahead of the front, with SW winds of 20-25 kts creating seas of 4-6 ft. FROPA is expected by the aftn, with a wind shift to the W/NW followed by a slow decrease in speed to around 15 kts by Friday morning. These winds, both in speed and direction, are expected then to persist through the remainder of the period with maybe an increase to 15-20 kts by the wknd. Seas will fall from the SCA thresholds by early Friday, but remain 3-5 ft into the wknd. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MAC MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW

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