Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 300932 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 432 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH THIS MORNING. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE GULF COAST MID WEEK MAY SPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SFC HIGH HAS SLID SE-S OF THE AREA TO START THIS MORNING. AN AMPLIFYING AND NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY...WITH ITS NORTH TO SOUTH AXIS SLIDING OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT THAT THE UPPER TROF WILL BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF. BY THE TIME THIS OCCURS...THE WX AND SFC LOW WILL HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE ILM CWA. HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET...THE INTENSIFYING SFC LOW AND THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE FA BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING WELL INTO TONIGHT. THE CFP IS SLATED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 4 TO 6 AM THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE FA... SETTLING ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR AT ALL LEVELS AS DEPICTED BY VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA. THE NW DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE APPALACHIANS WILL FURTHER SCOUR OR WRING OUT ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM MIDDAY TODAY THRU TONIGHT. IT NOW BECOMES BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST AFTER THIS MORNINGS CFP. AS FOR TEMPS...EXCELLENT CAA AFTER FROPA WHICH CONTINUES WELL INTO THE NIGHT. OVERALL...THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDER ONE WHEN COMPARED TO GFS MOS, HOWEVER...GIVEN TEMP VERIFICATION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE GFS MOS IS OUTPERFORMING THE NAM MOS. THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS...WITH ROUGHLY TODAYS HIGHS 50-55...AND TONIGHTS LOWS IN THE 20S THRUOUT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DEEP NW FLOW WILL LIGHTEN UP THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. AT THE UPPER LEVELS WINDS WILL BACK AND HEIGHTS WILL RISE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH A ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE MOST PART WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY BUT MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS STREAMING IN BY END OF DAY ASSOCIATED TO NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW... HEIGHT RISES AND SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPS REBOUND AFTER A COOL START TO CLOSE TO 50. PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF INCH SAT MORNING WILL REBOUND UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH BY SAT NIGHT. SAT EVE SHOULD SEE A QUICK TEMP DROP OFF AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL NOT BE TOO THICK YET TO PREVENT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH CALM WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN NEAR FREEZING MOST PLACES. THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF SHORE THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK RETURN FLOW SETTING UP INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT A DEEP INCREASING SW TO W RETURN FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL TAP INTO SOME GULF MOISTURE BY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. INITIALLY WILL JUST SEE THICKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AS MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE COLUMN IN LLJ UP TO 45 TO 50 KTS SUN NIGHT EXPECT PCP CHANCES TO INCREASE. WAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL KICK TEMPS UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL...55 TO AROUND 60. TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH SUN NIGHT WITH WAA AND INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCP. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LOCAL AREA IN WARM SECTOR IN DECENT SW RETURN FLOW MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AFTER A WARM START TEMPS WILL INCREASE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES MOST PLACES BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN BEHIND COLD FRONT. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW FRONT MAKING IT OFF THE COAST AROUND NOON TIME ON MONDAY. PCP WILL TAPER OFF LATEST AT THE COAST WITH LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY MON EVENING. MAY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF IN SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPS WILL COME EARLY IN THE DAY MOST PLACES BEFORE CLEARING AND CAA THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS INLAND WILL HAVE LESS TIME TO WARM BEFORE COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH AND THEREFORE TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH COOLER NW FLOW DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MON NIGHT MOVING SWIFTLY EAST REACHING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUES EVE. EXPECT A COOL AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TUES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST TUES NIGHT MAY SPREAD ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE CAROLINAS TO PRODUCE SOME PCP BY WED MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF SHORE AND FARTHER EAST THROUGH WED...IT WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND BACK OVER THE CAROLINAS IN A MORE TYPICAL WEDGE LIKE FASHION. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE GULF COAST RIDING UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. INITIALLY THE WARM AIR OVERRUNNING THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IN PLACE MAY PRODUCE A NARROW WINDOW OF POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN INLAND VERY EARLY WED MORNING....BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE PCP WILL NOT SPREAD FAR ENOUGH NORTH INTO THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPS. ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL MOVE IN THROUGH WED INTO WED NIGHT TO NOT CAUSE ANY MIXED PCP CONCERNS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES ON WED AND INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCP WILL KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 WED NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS APPROACHING THE HATTERAS COAST BY THURS MORNING. AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST A DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH PLENTY OF COLD AND DRY AIR MOVING IN FOR LATE THURS INTO FRI. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN -SHRA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT NEARS OUR AREA. THE BEST PCPN CHANCES REMAIN ALONG THE COAST...SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO -SHRA AT KILM/KCRE/KMYR FROM 09-13Z. TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. SW WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL VEER TO THE WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE FRONT WILL RACE OFFSHORE AFTER 12Z...AND CLOUD COVER WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW USHERS IN MUCH DRIER AIR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT AFTER 00Z SAT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. STILL EXPECTING SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN REACHES THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE OFF SHORE COMPONENT OF WIND WILL SQUELCH WAVE GROWTH POTENTIAL BUT CERTAINLY APPEARS 25 KT GUSTS ARE FAIR GAME BY 9Z IN WIND WEST SO ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEGINNING AT 3AM ALL WATERS LOOKS GOOD AND WAS RETAINED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS TO BE EXPECTED AFTER 3AM ON THE WATERS...WHILE TSTMS REMAIN MORE CONFINED TO THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM FARTHER OUT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS REACHING OVERHEAD BY SAT EVE. THIS WILL ALLOW PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY. W TO NW FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT AROUND OT THE SE TO S BY SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE. AS WINDS WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH LATE SAT SEAS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 3 FT . EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN WITH THE APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 4 TO 6 FT REACHING INTO SCA THRESHOLDS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MON MORNING WILL PRODUCING SW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS WILL KEEP SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 5 TO 8 FT MON MORNING. SHOULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS LASTING INTO MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE W-NW AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON A QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WITH SOME CAA...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. FOR TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFFSHORE WITH THE WIND DIRECTION MAKING THE TYPICAL PROGRESSION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO EAST/SOUTHEAST...REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...RGZ/BJR

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