Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 290524 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 123 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA MAY IMPINGE ON OUR FORECAST AREA NEAR AND WEST OF I-95 SHORTLY. SKY COVER SHOULD STILL AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN 20-30 PERCENT HERE...AND 10 PERCENT OR AT THE COAST. TEMPERATURES AT 10 PM WERE 1-2 DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST BUT AS SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT I EXPECT TO STILL SEE FORECAST LOWS WORK OUT FINE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE ON THIS UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGE IS CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS HAS LED TO AN ATMOSPHERE WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP INLAND. THE LAST OF THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR SHIFT WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS OVER THE NEXT HOUR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MOS BIAS STATISTICS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS INDICATE MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LARGELY TOO COOL...EXCEPT AT ELIZABETHTOWN... AND LUMBERTON WHERE BIAS IS NEAR ZERO. (MOS HAS AVERAGED 2.5 DEGREES TOO WARM AT DARLINGTON OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS) PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACTUALLY FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT AS A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR PUSHES WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS ITSELF OFFSHORE. THIS MAY "NEUTRALIZE" THE COOL BIAS DISPLAYED IN MOS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND I HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THINGS HAVE STABILIZED. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED AS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE REACHED AND CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN RATHER HIGH. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED TEMPO MVFR AT CRE AND LBT FOR LOCAL EFFECTS AND FORECAST MINS NEAR AFTN CROSSOVER DEWPOINTS, RESPECTIVELY. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN UNRESTRICTED TONIGHT. VFR FORECAST AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIGHT E/SE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS AND ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...FAVORED AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER DARK WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...BUOY AND PIER OBS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REORIENT ITSELF A LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH OUR LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS BACKING MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND SPEED... ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE 8 SECONDS. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...TRA/JDW SHORT TERM...RAN LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...JDW

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