Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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084 FXUS62 KILM 081721 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1221 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY TODAY. THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT ONE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT...DURING WEDNESDAY. AFTER TODAY...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS WORK WEEK TO TREND LOWER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WHEN ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 PM MONDAY...DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY TO CREATE A FEW SHOWERS. THIS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WARMED A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUITE. MOST READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S PRIMARILY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER REMAINING COUPLED. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...IMPRESSIVE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD WILL HELP MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON TUE. SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COMBINED WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA TUE AND MAY EVEN LEAD TO SOME VIRGA. HOWEVER MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. THE SHORTWAVE ALSO HELPS DRIVE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC SURGE WILL DROP 850 TEMPS FROM AROUND -7C TUE TO NEAR -13C LATER WED. COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER ON TUE WILL KEEP HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION TUE NIGHT WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED BUT THE AIR MASS IS RATHER COLD AND LOWS ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP EVEN LOWER WED AND WED NIGHT DESPITE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE ON WED. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN MOST AREAS IN THE LOW 40S WITH LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE LOWER 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 20S BY DAY AND MID TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON FRI. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF PRECIP AS THIS FEATURE PASSES BUT THE LIMITED NATURE OF THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW SUGGESTS QPF WILL BE VERY LOW. PLAN TO MAINTAIN INHERITED SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHORTWAVE HELPS DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 850 TEMPS IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. NOT READY TO BUY INTO TEMPERATURES THAT COLD...ESPECIALLY GIVEN IT IS 6 DAYS OUT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 18Z...INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS...10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH ANY HEAVY DOWNPOUR POTENTIALLY CREATING BRIEF MVFR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND PREVAILING VFR. ON TUESDAY...VFR CONTINUES WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 MONDAY...WIND SHIFT UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WATERS MORESO INLAND. EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP IN FULL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY 0600 UTC WITH A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN A 20-25 KNOT RANGE. SEAS ARE STILL A LITTLE CHURNED UP DUE TO THE STORM YESTERDAY BUT HAVE DIPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN WINDS SHOULD DO THE TRICK WITH 8-10 FEET EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...A RESULT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND PINCHED SURFACE GRADIENT. OTHER THAN A BRIEF DECREASE IN SPEEDS WED MORNING...A PAUSE BETWEEN ROUNDS OF COLD ADVECTION...WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL STILL BE VERY STRONG. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF OF GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KT WED NIGHT DURING THE STRONGEST PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FT NEAR THE 20 NM BORDER...AND ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF AMZ252...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON THU AS COLD ADVECTION COMES TO AN END AND SURFACE GRADIENT STARTS TO WEAKEN. FLOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT SPEEDS WILL DROP FROM AROUND 20 KT THU MORNING TO UNDER 10 KT THU NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST FRI AS NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBO APPROACH THE AREA. FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATER FRI NIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS WILL BE FALLING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...DROPPING FROM 3 TO 5 FT THU MORNING TO 2 TO 3 FT BY FRI AND 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SGL

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