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000
FXUS62 KILM 192330
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
730 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly clear skies and a warming trend are expected into the
weekend, as a dry upper ridge builds across the region. An
approaching cold front will bring a few showers on Tuesday,
before moving offshore Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...High pressure consolidating over eastern TN
today will gradually shift east-northeast Fri, slowly weakening as
it shifts. Weak shortwave aloft exiting to the east this afternoon
will be replaced by mid-level ridge later tonight and Friday.
Northerly winds become light and variable overnight and remain light
and variable tomorrow with a very weak gradient in place. Deep dry
air and light to calm winds overnight will lead to strong
radiational cooling with inland cold spots dipping well into the
40s. Along the coast lows will be around 50. Very dry air lingers in
the region Fri with precipitable water peaking around 0.50 inch in
the afternoon. Highs on Fri will end up a few degrees warmer than
today, mainly due to building heights/thickness and further air mass
modification. Flow remains northerly through just about the entire
column so there is no real warm advection to speak of. Relaxed
gradient will allow for development of weak afternoon sea breeze
which may temper highs along the coast but do not expect any cloud
development.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...Mid to upper ridge up the southeast coast
and surface high pressure to our north will both shift east
through the period. Overall a very light NE flow will veer
around becoming more easterly through the period. This will
allow for an increase in low level moisture basically late Sat
into Sat night. This should bring some low clouds mainly over
northeast SC or some fog elsewhere, mainly near the coast.
Dewpoint temps will increase from near 50 to 55 Fri night to 55
to around 60 by daybreak Sun. The strong subsidence inversion
will slowly erode through the period but not enough to allow for
any pcp or for that matter much in the way of cloud. The dry
air in place will allow for a large diurnal swing, but slightly
dampened Sat night with an increase low level moisture. Overall
mainly clear skies and very light winds leading to decent
radiational cooling. Overnight lows will be 50 to 55 Fri night
and 55 to 60 Sat night most places while bright Oct sunshine
will bring temps up close to 80 Sat aftn.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...the upper level pattern continues to show
high pressure breaking down and a large scale trough moving to
the eastern half of the United States by Tuesday. This is slower
than the previous run. At the surface the frontal boundary is
slower with the GFS bringing the frontal boundary into the area
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is even slower with the boundary
pushing off the coast Wednesday morning.

Precipiation chances start late Sunday night with isolated
showers then chances increase to likely on Tuesday with the
frontal passage.

High temperatures will be around 80 degrees on Sunday and
Monday but with the frontal passage will see temperatures
falling into the upper 60s to middle 60s by Wednesday and
Thursday. Lows on Sunday night will be in the lower to middle
60s but will fall into the middle to upper 40s by Wednesday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 23Z...Will continue with the high confidence of VFR
through 20/23Z. Clouds will be few through this TAF valid
period. Light and Variable to calm winds overnight will become
N-NE winds at 5-10 kts expected Friday afternoon.

After 10Z, with clear skies and light winds conditions will be
favorable for possible fog development. Moisture is very
limited and will just indicate MVFR vsbys for now.

Extended Outlook...Tempo MVFR/showers Mon/Tues. Otherwise VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...High pressure over eastern TN this afternoon
into tonight will shift east-northeast Fri. Gradient over the waters
continues to relax tonight with speeds dropping under 10 kt by
midnight. Flow remains north to northeast through the period but
gradient remains weak tomorrow with speeds 10 kt or less. Winds may
veer to east or even southeast later in the day in response to
development of weak sea breeze. Seas 3 to 4 ft, with 2 ft near
shore, this afternoon will drop to 2 to 3 ft overnight. On Fri 2 ft
will be the dominant condition with occasional 3 ft possible.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM...High pressure to our north will shift east
through the period. Overall a very light NE flow will veer
around becoming more easterly through the period, remaining less
than 15 kts. Expect a slight chop Sat aftn as winds spike up
and become more on shore, but overall benign seas expected
mainly around 3 ft or less.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...High pressure over the waters will weaken
and shift offshore. This will allow for veering of the winds
with a southerly wind by Monday. Seas will be 2 to 3 feet on
Sunday and will slowly increase by late Monday to 3 to 4 feet as
the winds slowly increase ahead of front that will approach the
waters late Tuesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...DRH
AVIATION...MAC
MARINE...