Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 161017 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 617 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND WILL THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN BY FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE FREEZING MARK FOR SOME LOCATIONS WELL INLAND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...TWEAKED THE CLOUD COVER...THE NARROW STRIP PERSISTING BASICALLY BISECTING THE CWA FOR THE LATEST UPDATE. AS EXPECTED...STRONG WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO PREVIOUS GUIDANCE EXPECTATIONS. HOPEFULLY...THIS BODES WELL FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED EARLIER FOLLOWS: HIGH PRESSURE IS RAPIDLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE CLEARING LINE IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE NEAR TERM REMAINS LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRICKLED IN WITH LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS COOLER AND MORE IMPORTANTLY BELOW FREEZING IN LUMBERTON. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING MIXED...ALTHOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT WE ARE SEEING THIS MORNING...I STILL LIKE THE WARMER NAM/MET NUMBERS. LONG STORY SHORT...I AM NOT ISSUING ANY FROST OR FREEZE ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS. I DO THINK IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO ISSUE AN SPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO FURTHER EMPHASIZE THE CAVEATS/THREATS IS THE GFS NUMBERS DO VERIFY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH IN A FAMILIAR WEDGE TYPE PATTERN. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER GULF COAST AND WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A TROUGH EXTENDING UP FROM THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND JUST OFF SHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE WINDS VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN MORE OF A PINCHED GRADIENT FLOW THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHC OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCP AS EARLY AS THURS MORNING. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS JUST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURS AND THEN GREATER CHC OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH TRACK OF LOW SO THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY PCP WILL ENTER BACK IN THE FORECAST AND HOW LONG IT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE PCP ON FRI...BUT IT COULD LAST INTO SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AND WARM ONLY SLIGHTLY THURS AND FRI IN CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND ABOUT 30 DEGREES TO REACH INTO THE 60S. DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST COULD HAMPER THIS RISE AND WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WEDGE EVOLVES. CLOUDS AND PCP ON FRI WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN...CLOSER TO 60. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL NUDGE THE LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FURTHER OFF SHORE. THEREFORE EXPECT DRIER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK IN IN DEEP NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH SATURDAY. REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL REACH INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY AS A DRY FRONT MOVES SOUTH BUT MAINLY EXPECT ANOTHER PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND MID APRIL SUNSHINE. ON SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 70 UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REACH INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH INTO MONDAY BUT IT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF SHORE AS NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS BUT ALSO GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THIS SYSTEM EAST WITH WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE ON TUES. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING CHC OF PCP THROUGH TUES AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHES CLOSER TO THE CAROLINAS. TEMPS WILL REACH UP INTO THE 70S REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...A COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL TERMINALS AND SKIES HAVE BECOME SCT. N WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIND DIRECTIONS BECOMING NE AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS GUSTS WILL DECREASE IN THE MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW VFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE COAST IN THE EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF IFR STRATUS CIGS EACH MORNING. VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...STEADY STATE ALBEIT SOMEWHAT RUGGED CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NO CHANGES AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLLOWS: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS GRADUALLY BACK OFF FROM THIS MORNINGS VALUES OF 25-30 KNOTS...A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED AND FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF 15-20 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY INTACT. THIS MORNINGS VALUES OF 3-8 FEET WILL DROP TO 4-6 FEET LATE. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS IN A WEDGE LIKE PATTERN THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED THROUGH LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY JUST OFF SHORE AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF AND RIDES UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OVERALL EXPECT PERSISTENT NE FLOW GREATEST OFF SHORE AND DECREASING CLOSER TO THE COAST TO NEAR 10 TO 15 KTS BY LATE THURS INTO FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS OVER SCA THRESHOLDS ON THURS TO FINALLY FALL TO 4-6 FT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. EXPECT A FURTHER DROP IN SEAS AS WINDS LIGHTEN FURTHER INTO FRI NIGHT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST NUDGING THE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST FURTHER OFF SHORE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. WNA SHOWS WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT A SPIKE UP ON SUNDAY IN NORTHERLY SURGE.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056. NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...SHK/MRR

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