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266
FXUS62 KILM 081048
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
648 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. Unsettled weather arrives Wednesday with best storm
chances Thursday and Friday. Rain chances decrease slightly for
the weekend, but afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain a
fixture.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Humid with scattered afternoon thunderstorms today - typical summer
day in the eastern Carolinas. Moist airmass remains in place with
low level southerly flow around Bermuda high. High temps this
afternoon forecasted around 91-95F (only a few degrees above normal)
will combine with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s to bring heat
indices in the triple digits today. A Heat Advisory has been issued
for most of the area (excluding southern and most coastal counties)
where the best chance exists of reaching our local 105F heat index
criteria. Besides hot and humid, the moist airmass will lead to CAPE
of 1500-2000 J/kg across the area this afternoon. While 500mb
ridging from the east persist, it won`t be strong enough to prevent
scattered thunderstorms from developing today, aided by sea breeze
and Piedmont trough. Current forecast has a focus for thunderstorms
over the Pee Dee region this afternoon into early evening hours.
Partly cloudy skies tonight with lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging aloft is all but gone by Wed with slow moving 5h trough
dropping in from the west-northwest. Piedmont trough remains in
place as does deep moisture, precipitable water is over 2 inches
through the duration of the short term. Storm motions will be around
10 kt, slightly below Wed and slightly above Thu. Which could lead
to some urban flooding issues, if multiple storms affect an area in
quick succession. Overall not a huge flooding concern, but areas
that got 4+" of rain from Chantal could be slightly more susceptible
to prolonger heavier rainfall. Severe threat is limited at best. Mid-
level lapse rates are marginal and wind speeds from the surface to
over 40k ft do not exceed 20 kt. Cannot rule out a wet microburst
given the environment, but the threat appears to be within the realm
of what is typical for the Southeast from summertime thunderstorms.
Clouds and afternoon convection will keep highs near to slightly
below normal each afternoon. Clouds, mixing and moisture all keep
lows above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Bermuda High remains offshore into next week with the Piedmont
trough present through Sat. While this is a typical summer pattern
that usually results in shower/thunderstorm coverage 30-40%, there
are a few differences later this week. There is more moisture
present, precipitable water runs 120-130% of normal, and weak 5h
troughing complete with random shortwaves moving through it, will be
overhead. This setup combined with SBCAPE 2500-3000 J/kg each day
will produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. The mid-level
trough shifts east Sun/Mon which moves the Piedmont trough to the
coast or just off it. Rain chances remain elevated with abundant
moisture in the area, but coverage will be scaled back a bit by the
building of weak 5h ridge over the Lower Mississippi Valley and the
loss of the weak mid-level support. Precipitable water remains above
normal and storm motions drop under 10kt, suggesting heavy rain
could be a concern. Highs will be right around normal with lows
running a little above.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Satellite and observation sites shows a wide strip of 300-500 ft
stratus across southeastern NC. The large area of low clouds
will take a little bit to mix out after sunrise, but it is not
expansive enough to persist long into morning. Have included a
TEMPO in KLBT TAF through 14z for 500ft ceilings. Partly cloudy
skies today with diurnal cumulus around 3500-4500 ft. Scattered
thunderstorms expected this afternoon, particularly across the
Pee Dee/inland NE SC region. Southerly winds continue to prevail
around offshore Bermuda high. Low stratus may return inland
late tonight/Wednesday morning, but confidence too low at this
time to include in TAFs.

Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions possible
Wednesday through Friday due to daytime convection and
potential early morning fog/stratus.uesday
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
Relatively quiet marine conditions expected over the local
coastal waters through tonight as Bermuda high dominates. South-
southwest winds 10-15 kts persists with seas 2-3 ft. Seas will
be a mix of S wind wave, 7 sec SE swell and 1 ft 14 sec SE
swell.

Wednesday through Saturday...
Southwest flow around the west side of the Bermuda High will
peak on the high end of the 10-15 kt range each afternoon and
evening as the gradient between the high and the Piedmont trough
tightens up. Speeds drop back close to 10 kt in the morning and
the trough weakens. Seas 2-3 ft Wed build to 3-4 ft with
occasional 5 ft Thu- Sat due to the prolonged period of
southwest flow. Seas will be a mix of a southeast swell and a
southerly wind wave with the southerly wind wave gradually
increasing in period later in the week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ087-096-099-105.
SC...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...III/VAO