-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 241804 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
103 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST
LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1 PM SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NC/SC HAS FIRED OFF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY THE ACTIVITY IS CONFINED MOSTLY TO
INLAND NC COUNTIES BUT THE SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO SPREAD EAST. NOT
EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF EASTWARD PROPAGATION AS THE
WAVE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST AND ONCE THE ACTIVITY MOVES FROM
UNDERNEATH THE WAVE IT SHOULD WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY. DO THINK
PORTIONS OF INLAND PENDER COULD BE AFFECTED AS THE SHORTWAVE
SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP UNDER
IT. HAVE SEEN A FEW REPORTS OF DRIZZLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT SO
FAR MEASURABLE PRECIP HAS BEEN ELUSIVE. ISOLATED AND LIGHT NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS WARRANTS CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POP
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
DEEP DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. BY THIS EVENING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE DOWN NEAR 0.25 INCH WITH MINIMAL
RECOVERY OVERNIGHT. COMBINATION OF DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND
DOWNWARD MOTION WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR DESPITE THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE WILL HAVE NO
VISIBLE IMPACT ON THE AREA IT SHOULD HELP KICK UP BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS. HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR
POTENTIALLY HIGHER WINDS OVERNIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SUNDAY OFFERS UP SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE PATTERN IS RATHER WEAK AHEAD OF A
SLIGHTLY OCCLUDED CLIPPER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM NW TO SE SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS RAPIDLY...AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES. IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BENEFIT FROM ANY GULF OR
ATLANTIC MOISTURE...BUT WILL STILL BRING ISO TO SCT SHOWERS FROM THE
STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS IS THROUGH
BY 18Z MONDAY BUT SINCE THE SYSTEM IS OCCLUDED THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO NECESSITATE THE LOW POPS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF MONDAY...AGAIN STRESSING THAT COVERAGE AND QPF WILL BOTH BE QUITE
LOW. THOUGH TECHNICALLY OFFERING A SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURE
MONDAY MAY FEATURE FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS
EARLY MONDAY WILL CARRY AN ARCTIC FRONT EAST ACROSS AND FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE COAST EARLY MON AFTN WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE
RIDING RIGHT OVER CAPE FEAR. THIS SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT ANY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE LEAVING A LOW END CHC OF PCP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
AFTN. BY EVENING PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA IN DEEP N-NW FLOW AS WE TAP INTO AN ARCTIC AIR MASS. LOOKS
LIKE 850 TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW 0C FROM MON EVE UNTIL THURS MORNING.
THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL COME ON TUES AS 850 TEMPS REACH AS LOW AS
-7 C. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S MOST PLACES BOTH TUES AND
WED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD KEEPING POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS THROUGH TUES BEFORE THE
AIR MASS DRIES OUT COMPLETELY IN REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AND DRY
AIR. PCP WATER VALUES DROP DOWN FROM CLOSE TO A HALF INCH ON MON
DOWN TO NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR WED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON THURS WILL ALLOW AIR MASS TO MODIFY
BRIEFLY AND WARM SLIGHTLY BACK TOWARD NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 50S BUT
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY KNOCKING TEMPS BACK
DOWN AGAIN.THIS FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE AND
SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN PCP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY CONVECTION HAS MOVED
WELL OFFSHORE. A TRAILING UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN.
CIGS ARE NOW AROUND 1K EXCEPT AT KILM WHERE CIGS ARE STILL IFR. MVFR
CIGS MAY DROP TO IFR THROUGH 19Z BUT GENERAL TREND IS UPWARD. CIGS
WILL BREAK UP AND SKIES SCATTER AS THE UPPER IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH
ABOUT 19-20Z AT KFLO/KLBT AND 20-21Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT W-NW 23-01Z AND MAY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS A QUICK MOVING SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS BECOME S-SW LATE IN THE TAF
VALID PERIOD BUT THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SUN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION/MVFR CIGS
MON. VFR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS TUE-THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF NOON SATURDAY...HAVE ALLOWED GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE WHICH
HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A SCA THROUGH 06Z. ALTHOUGH GALE WARNING IS
NO LONGER IN EFFECT ISOLATED GUSTS OF GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS NC WATERS. SC WATERS MAY
FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BEFORE 06Z.

CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS
GRADUALLY DECREASING AS GRADIENT RELAXES. SPEEDS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT
POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WIND COMPONENT WILL BE OFFSHORE THE STRENGTH OF
THE WINDS IS LIKELY TO KEEP 6 FT AND HIGHER SEAS WITHIN 20 NM.
WINDS SPEEDS DROP UNDER 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT AND TO 10 TO 15 KT BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE REDUCTION IN WIND
SPEEDS...FALLING TO 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL NEED FOR LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR LOW
TIDE LATER TODAY. LATEST FORECAST KEEP ALL SITES JUST ABOVE LOW
WATER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SUNDAY
FOLLOWING RATHER ACTIVE NEAR TERM WEATHER AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOC
WITH BIG STORM IN NEW ENGLAND FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND OUT OF OUR
AREA. WHAT REMAINS IS LIGHTER FLOW THAT BACKS IN DIRECTION AS THE
DAY WEARS ON IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT FLOW WILL TURN TO SW AND PICK UP BUT NOT QUITE TO
CAUTIONARY LEVELS. MULTI-CENTERED LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EARLY
MONDAY WITH A W TO NW COOL SURGE THEREAFTER. LATEST GUIDANCE A
LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ENSUING WINDS AND SEAS AND AN
ADVISORY PROBABLY NOT GOING TO MATERIALIZE EVEN THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO
25KT APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN THE WELL-ALIGNED LOW LEVEL FLOW.


LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
EARLY MONDAY WITH A DEEP COLD NW TO N FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH MID
WEEK. SHOULD SEE GUSTY NW WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS. SEAS
AROUND 3 TO 5 FT WILL KICK SEAS UP BRIEFLY BUT THE OFF SHORE
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME THROUGH TUES AS WINDS VEER MORE TO THE
NORTH AND GRADIENT SLACKENS...BUT A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AND DRY
AIR WILL COME TUES NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH
WED. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS
AGAIN TUES NIGHT INTO WED WITH SEAS APPROACHING SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR