-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 230814 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
353 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE
THURSDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL COME ON FRIDAY AHEAD
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNRISE. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND MORE STRONGLY TONIGHT
AND THIS IS WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
RISES.

INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE PROMISES
TO BRING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DEWPOINTS WILL
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...DOWN
INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DRY AIR
SHOULD HEAT UP EFFICIENTLY AS IT BATTLES A PUSH OF COLDER AIR
ARRIVING FROM THE N. GIVEN FULL SUN...WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WELL MIXED TODAY AND
THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVELY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. WILL
REISSUE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR NORTH CAROLINA TO ADDRESS
INCREASED FIRE DANGER AS SOILS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD SURGE MAY KEEP WINDS ELEVATED FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME. ANY ELEVATED WINDS WOULD HELP TO COUNTER THE CLEAR
SKIES...THUS PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM DEVELOPING OR
AT LEAST SHORTENING ITS DURATION. WILL CAP LOWS NEAR 40 IN OUR
COLDEST...WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...MID AND UPPER 40S
WILL BE MOST COMMON. THIS IS A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH ON THURS WITH VERY LIGHT AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS. SHOULD SEE WINDS COME AROUND BECOMING MORE ON
SHORE THROUGH THURS AFTN ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE UNDER
STRENGTHENING LATE APRIL SUN. THIS ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST REACHING AROUND 70 BUT
INLAND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO CREEP UP BUT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
LIMITED CLOUD COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
DEEPER S-SW RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. WILL TAP INTO COMBINED ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL CREATE INCREASING CLOUDS AND GREATER CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS LATER ON FRI. PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE UP AROUND 1.5
INCHES THROUGH FRI AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH UP CLOSER TO 80 WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPS REACHING UP AROUND 60 FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
SATURDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE AND RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY
BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT. GFS SHOWS SECONDARY FRONT OR BOUNDARY
MOVING DOWN FOR SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT A DRIER WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST WITH TIME...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE EAST. THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WHILE LOW MOVES EAST
THROUGH TUES NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS BY LATE TUES
AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TO START REACHING AROUND OR
INTO THE 80S BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S BEHIND COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH SKC ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS AND BKN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS QUICKLY EXITING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ACROSS THE AREA.

PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT LIGHT WSW WINDS TO N AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 8 KT BEFORE DAYBREAK. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL
PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT...SUBSIDING TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING AND IN ITS WAKE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO NW. THERE
WILL BE A MODEST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15
TO 20 KT. A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS THE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY...TO THE NNE AT THAT TIME. SEAS MAY BUMP
UP A FOOT OR SO WITH THE MORNING SURGE...BUT GIVEN PREVAILING FLOW
AT THAT TIME...WILL CAP AT 3 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE IN WAVE HEIGHTS
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE
NORTH SHIFTING CLOSER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON THURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BUT IT WILL START
INCREASING OUT OF THE S TO SW FRI AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE SW TO W THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3
FT UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON THURS WITH A BIT MORE CHOP IN
SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST. AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI EVE IN
S-SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
SECONDARY BOUNDARY OR COLD FRONT. EXPECT W WINDS TO BACK TO THE SW
AND LIGHTEN TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT. EXPECT NORTHERLY SURGE UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A RISE IN WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS UP TO 3 TO
4 FT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/SGL