-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 161017
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
617 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND WILL THEN
SLOWLY WEAKEN BY FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR SOME LOCATIONS WELL INLAND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...TWEAKED THE CLOUD COVER...THE NARROW
STRIP PERSISTING BASICALLY BISECTING THE CWA FOR THE LATEST
UPDATE. AS EXPECTED...STRONG WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING TO PREVIOUS GUIDANCE EXPECTATIONS. HOPEFULLY...THIS
BODES WELL FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION ISSUED EARLIER FOLLOWS:



 HIGH PRESSURE IS RAPIDLY BUILDING INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THE CLEARING LINE IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE NEAR TERM REMAINS LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRICKLED IN
WITH LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS COOLER AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY BELOW FREEZING IN LUMBERTON. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINING MIXED...ALTHOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT WE ARE SEEING THIS
MORNING...I STILL LIKE THE WARMER NAM/MET NUMBERS. LONG STORY
SHORT...I AM NOT ISSUING ANY FROST OR FREEZE ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS. I DO THINK IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO ISSUE AN SPS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO FURTHER EMPHASIZE THE CAVEATS/THREATS IS
THE GFS NUMBERS DO VERIFY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR THE
MOST PART AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
NORTH IN A FAMILIAR WEDGE TYPE PATTERN. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER GULF COAST AND WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A TROUGH EXTENDING UP
FROM THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST AND JUST OFF SHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE WINDS
VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN MORE OF A
PINCHED GRADIENT FLOW THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHC OF LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT PCP AS EARLY AS THURS MORNING. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS JUST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURS AND THEN GREATER CHC OF
RAIN FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH TRACK OF
LOW SO THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY PCP
WILL ENTER BACK IN THE FORECAST AND HOW LONG IT WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE PCP ON FRI...BUT IT COULD
LAST INTO SATURDAY.

AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AND WARM ONLY SLIGHTLY THURS AND FRI IN
CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND ABOUT 30 DEGREES TO REACH INTO THE 60S.
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST COULD HAMPER THIS RISE
AND WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WEDGE EVOLVES. CLOUDS AND PCP ON FRI
WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN...CLOSER TO 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL NUDGE THE LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FURTHER
OFF SHORE. THEREFORE EXPECT DRIER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK IN IN
DEEP NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH SATURDAY. REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL REACH INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH LATE
SAT INTO SUNDAY AS A DRY FRONT MOVES SOUTH BUT MAINLY EXPECT
ANOTHER PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL REACH
INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND MID APRIL
SUNSHINE. ON SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS
CLOSER TO 70 UNDER FULL SUNSHINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REACH INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
NORTH INTO MONDAY BUT IT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF SHORE AS NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT ALSO GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN A
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THIS SYSTEM EAST WITH
WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE ON TUES. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING CHC OF
PCP THROUGH TUES AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHES CLOSER TO THE
CAROLINAS. TEMPS WILL REACH UP INTO THE 70S REMAINING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...A COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL TERMINALS AND SKIES HAVE
BECOME SCT. N WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH WIND DIRECTIONS BECOMING NE AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS GUSTS WILL
DECREASE IN THE MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW VFR LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE COAST IN THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF IFR STRATUS CIGS
EACH MORNING. VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...STEADY STATE ALBEIT SOMEWHAT RUGGED
CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NO CHANGES AND THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLLOWS:


SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS GRADUALLY BACK OFF FROM THIS MORNINGS VALUES OF 25-30
KNOTS...A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED AND FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
OF 15-20 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY INTACT. THIS MORNINGS VALUES OF 3-8 FEET WILL DROP TO 4-6
FEET LATE.


SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS IN A WEDGE LIKE PATTERN THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. TROUGH
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED THROUGH LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY JUST OFF
SHORE AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF AND RIDES UP
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OVERALL EXPECT PERSISTENT NE FLOW
GREATEST OFF SHORE AND DECREASING CLOSER TO THE COAST TO NEAR 10
TO 15 KTS BY LATE THURS INTO FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS OVER SCA
THRESHOLDS ON THURS TO FINALLY FALL TO 4-6 FT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. EXPECT A FURTHER DROP IN SEAS AS WINDS LIGHTEN FURTHER
INTO FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
EAST NUDGING THE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST FURTHER OFF
SHORE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. WNA SHOWS WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT A
SPIKE UP ON SUNDAY IN NORTHERLY SURGE.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.

NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SHK/MRR