Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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262 FXUS62 KILM 271858 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 258 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure offshore will bring a warming and drying trend late this week through the weekend. A weakening cold front will bring a few showers or a thunderstorm tonight inland and early Friday at the coast. A stronger frontal system will bring a chance of rain late Monday and early Tuesday. Another storm system may impact the region with a soaking rain next Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 230 PM Thursday...The NSSL 4KM WRF and the HRRR models depict similar schemes, in edging a broken line of showers and possibly an isolated TSTM along and west of I-95 in SC 9-10 PM tonight followed by convective weakening due to diurnal cooling and waning low-level convergence as lower tropospheric winds veer slightly more to SW vs S late tonight. A frail cold front if we can even use the word cold, will wash out on approach to the the coast overnight. No wind-shift and in fact, dewpoints along the coast will rise to near 70 deg into early Friday. A scarcity of moisture aloft will render substantial rain an improbability but an isolated shower near the coast early Friday cannot be written off entirely given the rich low-level moisture stream from the SW. A sea breeze shower Friday could pop because the sea breeze circulation itself will be moderately strong with low-level heating on the uptick tomorrow. Again however we see that dry air aloft will limit shower coverage and strength, and only isolated showers were painted in along the coastal interior Friday afternoon. Maximums Friday near 90 over the deeper interior and upper and mid 80s most everywhere else, coolest eastern zones, given a marine influence brought about by a southerly wind flow versus southwest.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Thursday...Bermuda High will take hold of the area with ridging all the way up through the mid and upper levels. This will maintain a deep southerly return flow with very mild summer-like weather. Plenty of dry air and subsidence through the mid levels will maintain a cap on convection although shallow low level moisture will be quite rich. Overnight winds should prevent fog, but sounding data shows potential for a few hours of saturated column up to 1500 ft or so and greater potential Sat night into Sun morning. Therefore may see some stratus around overnight but will dissipate as sun rises Sat morning. Should also see some cu develop right along sea breeze boundary as it pushes inland Sat aftn. Temps will run about 10 to 15 degrees above normal with plenty of sunshine on Sat. Both Fri night and Sat night lows will near or around 70 degrees with daytime highs soaring through the 80s to around 90 in many spots inland.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Thursday...Western Atlantic High Pressure will maintain deep southerly flow on Sun. Although a shower along the seabreeze can`t be ruled out, subsidence on the periphery of the ridge should keep afternoon convection to a minimum, except along the inflection point, will keep POPs out of the forecast at this time. Surface and mid level ridge will weaken and drift east Mon, allowing a cold front to approach from the W. Low pressure and associated strong dynamics and upper level support will be well dislocated from the Carolinas as a cold front moves across the area Mon night. This suggests convection weakening as it moves into the eastern Carolinas. Current timing brings the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms later Mon and Mon night. As the front moves off the coast Tue morning, high pressure along the Gulf Coast will slide east and then offshore to our S during Wed. This should bring a dry period. Deep low pressure will move out of the mid south and Gulf coast states Wed, lifting slowly to the NE. Its associated cold front will move into the Southeast states Thu-Thu night, bringing the risk for robust thunderstorms.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 18Z...Mainly VFR conditions through this afternoon. A weak cold front will make it`s closest approach from the west tonight and early Fri before washing out altogether during Friday near the coast. MVFR conditions possible this evening thru the overnight period. Will indicate VCTS or VCSH during that time span. Ceilings may lower to MVFR or isolated IFR. Winds will start out SSW 5 to 10 kt and increase to S 10 to 15 kt with g20 kt this afternoon and evening. The higher gusts will occur across the coastal terminals due to an active sea breeze. Thursday 12z-18z VCSH mainly near the coast with SCT-BKN040 inland and MVFR cigs close to the coast. Extended outlook...VFR through Sunday. Periods of IFR/MVFR in convection late Monday into early Tuesday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM Thursday...Not ideal marine conditions with 20 KT SW gusts likely tonight and on Friday, but with seas holding mainly at 3-4 feet, and 5 footers confined to the extreme outer portion, no advisories or caution statements are planned at this time. An isolated marine shower is possible early Friday from pre-dawn through the day Friday but TSTMS not expected due to dry air aloft. The wave spectrum will be shared by SE waves 2 feet every 7-8 seconds, and a moderate to strong S-SSW chop of 2-3 every 4-6 seconds, thus a bit bumpy due to the frisky winds. Gusts in excess of 20 KT possible Friday afternoon due to a strong sea breeze overlapped on the synoptic winds, and if 25 KT gusts are frequent enough, a brief Advisory may be required. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Southerly return flow will persist around the periphery of the Bermuda High which will keep a stronghold on the local waters through the period. Winds will run 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 to 25 kt possible especially the nearshore waters during the afternoon sea breeze. Seas will run 2 to 4 ft, but may see some 5 fters in outer waters. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Western Atlantic High Pressure will bring increasing S winds ahead of a cold front. S winds Sun and Sun night will be increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas will increase to 4 to 6 ft by early Mon morning. S to SW wind speeds will increase further Mon and Mon night, up to 20 to 25 kt as seas build to 5 to 8 ft. Then in the wake of the front Tue, developing offshore winds will trend lower. The offshore trajectories will knock seas down and we should drop below Small Craft Advisory levels by Tue eve.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Friday for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RJD AVIATION...MJC

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