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000
FXUS62 KILM 201853
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
253 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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Bermuda high pressure will remain centered offshore this week,
but will continue to extend back to the west over the Eastern
Carolinas. A cold front dropping southeast will stall just
inland from the coast today before dissipating by Wednesday.
Tropical moisture will funnel northward from the Gulf of Mexico
for much of this week, further enhancing the potential for
torrential rainfall, and possibly localized flooding at times.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Tuesday...Plume of tropical moisture in excess of 2
inch precipitable waters continues to stream across the eastern
Carolinas per the latest microwave measurements aboard passing
satellites. Very gradually am expecting the axis of heaviest
rainfall to shift farther inland, coincident with the most
organized low level convergence, although a myriad of outflow
boundaries will allow showers or a storm just about anywhere
given the soupy and unstable character. Tonight, weakening
showers will linger over the deeper interior and I-95 corridor,
while increasing nocturnal buoyancy and convergence offshore
spawns new storms over the coastal waters poised to glance and
scrape the coast and coastal interior zones overnight into
daybreak Wednesday.

Waves of enhanced tropical moisture will stream overhead Wed
and the potential for torrential rainfall and high POP values
will prevail again. Late in the day upper support will weaken
as the upper trough deamplifies north of the area, although
the air mass will remain in a soupy fashion into the evening.
As a result, likely POPs planned for much of the area Wed.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 3 PM Tuesday...Convection is expected to decrease in areal
coverage Wednesday night as PWAT values decrease slightly, and more
importantly upper support and cyclonic flow aloft wanes. Also the
steering flow becomes more westerly Wednesday night and Thursday
which may keep developing convection offshore from gaining a
foothold to points inland. As a result, POP values revert closer to
a normal summer-like pattern, although it appears column moisture
will remain substantial and a healthy scattering of storms is
anticipated right into Thursday. Short-wave energy will be rounding
the top of a low amplitude ridge Thursday afternoon and evening with
westerly steering flow so all locations will have a shot for
storms/rain, coupled with max temps regaining a full early-summer
feel.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Tuesday...Seasonably warm and unsettled weather will
continue through at least Monday as the Bermuda ridge retreats
eastward, with a cold front slowly descending from the NW.
Confidence is not high regarding an actual clean FROPA for this
time of year, but a consensus of guidance for now moves the
front offshore Monday night, followed by dryer and slightly cooler
weather.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 16Z...Occasional MVFR ceilings and visibilities due to
scattered to numerous showers with embedded TSTMS. This regime
to prevail through the current TAF cycle as TSTM motion remains
from SW to NE. Isolated surface wind gusts to 35 KT in and near
TSTMS. Rain heavy at times due tropical moisture may reduce
VSBY to less than 1/2 mile periodically. Outside of TSTMS SW
winds 5-9 KT inland and 12-17 KT near the coast.

Extended Outlook...The risk for flight restrictions due to
thunderstorms will continue through the period. The probability
for reduced ceilings and visibility in thunderstorms with heavy
rain should be highest through Wed, possibly again on Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Winds and Seas are favorable tonight
through Wednesday, although the problem is scattered to numerous
showers and TSTMS locally reducing visibility, while kicking up
local winds and seas in and near any storms. Otherwise SW winds
10-15 KT and seas 2-3 feet outside of the storms. Seas will be
dominated from a southerly direction in 5-6 second wave periods.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Since Bermuda High pressure remains in
place this period no major changes to winds and seas are
expected this period. Essentially a continuation of SW winds
10-15 KT and seas 2-3 feet. Isolated to scattered convection
is expected over the waters this period generally moving from
WSW to ENE over the waters. Storms this period may march off land
over the near shore waters since the flow aloft is mostly from the
west. Wave direction will be mainly from the south in 6-7 second
intervals.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Expect SWly winds of 10 to 15 kts on
Friday increasing to 15 to 20 kts on Saturday as the gradient
around the backside of the Bermuda Ridge tightens. Seas will
likewise increase and it is possible that a Small Craft Advisory
may need to be raised for Saturday. Some improvement is expected
as the gradient again loosens on Sunday.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...REK
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/REK