Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 211530 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1130 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The cold front that passed to our south will continue to dissipate as high pressure build into the area and a piedmont trough develops to our west Friday through the weekend. Temperatures will surge back above normal for the weekend, with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms increasing early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1130 AM Thursday...Morning soundings are showing drier air at GSO and MHX and an inversion around 550 mb at MHX today. Instabilities are down by half in the northeast 2/3 of the forecast area and this reflects where the best and less favorable chances of convection are this afternoon. A chance of thunderstorms are possible mainly from Andrews to Dillon as the best moisture and instability is this area. Also, the sea-breeze may see an isolated thunderstorm with the best chances from Southport southward. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower 90s inland and the upper 80s at the beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Thursday...NO POPS being fcst in this 2 day period. Increasing heat combined with the humidity, will result in heat indices shy of Advisory criteria on Friday but should break through thresholds and become widespread on Saturday. High pressure aloft will bake the Central U.S. this period. One of its ridge axis`s will extend just north of the area during this weekend. With dry and warming air in the mid levels, along with primarily subsidence aloft, the ILM CWA will see a decent convective lid across the region thruout this period. Clouds will be limited to diurnally driven cu/sc this period...enhanced by the sea breeze. In all, no POPs. Widespread 90s for both days, with sfc dewpoints slowly increasing and becoming widespread 70s by Saturday. Mixing from aloft may bring down some 60 degree dewpoints inland on Fri but likely not the case for Sat. Will indicate Heat Advisory conditions for Sat in the HWO. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 AM Thursday...500mb ridge right overhead Sunday and Monday and this should keep hot temperatures and little to no precipitation chances in the forecast. Guidance is showing some areas hotter Sunday vs Monday while other guidance reverses this trend. In the end unless the sea breeze dictates otherwise along the coast both days appear quite similar and both likely candidates for Heat Advisories. The ridge may be more stalwart than previously though especially according to the 00Z GFS which now shows little to no retrogression and thus a similar hot and humid forecast. We may now have to wait until Wednesday for just enough retrogression of the ridge from some vorticity centers to stream across the area in the resulting NW flow. This could temper the heat and also lead to better chances of thunderstorm, maybe strong to severe ones. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 12Z...Patchy areas of MVFR/IFR possible due to fog this morning and Friday morning. Otherwise expect VFR with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible this afternoon. Latest observations depict patchy fog this morning creating areas of MVFR. Expect conditions to improve to VFR area-wide within the next hour or two, continuing through the rest of today with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. Light and variable winds this morning will become east-northeasterly and then east- southeasterly by this afternoon, with sustained winds around 10 kts or less. Overnight, winds become nearly calm with the potential for MVFR due to fog towards morning. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Brief periods of MVFR/IFR from isolated afternoon convection through Saturday. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1130 AM Thursday...The stationary front continue to dissipate and high pressure will build in over the waters overnight. Winds are light from the north to northwest with seas of 3 feet. The 3 ft swells are from a east-southeast to southeast with a periods of 8 and 11 seconds. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Thursday...High pressure will build across the waters from the High`s center offshore from the SE States during this period. Inland, the Piedmont trof will become a mainstay during this period. The 2 features will combine and affect the area waters with winds becoming SW thruout on Fri and continuing thru Saturday. The mesoscale sea breeze will result in S to SSW winds nearshore each aftn and evening and provide the increased wind chop. The sfc pg will be somewhat relaxed Fri with wind speeds generally around 10 kt. The sfc pg tightens Sat thru Sat night with wind speeds at 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible Sat Aftn thru Sat Night. Significant seas will run 2 to occasionally 3 ft on Fri with the 1 to 2 foot ese-se ground swell dominating. For Sat, increasing SW winds will build the local wind chop and when added to the 1 to 2 foot ground swell, significant seas will run 2 to 4 ft. No convection being forecast this period. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 AM Thursday...A very unsettled set of changing conditions. This is not only fairly typical during the heart of summer but it becomes even moreso during a heatwave. Winds will be 10-15kt and southwesterly with a piedmont trough in place while the Bermuda high is displaced eastward of its normal position. Seas will average 2 to 3 and occasionally 4 ft.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL

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