Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 050627 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 227 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... COLD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SWING SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING THE RISK FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND DISSIPATE OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEK... BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1000 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL OFFSHORE WITH SOME LINGERING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKYBY MORNING. THE IMPACT OF THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT WILL BE MINIMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE RIVER LEVELS HAVE FALL BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...A POTENT COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THURS BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWERING AND COLD AND DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND THIS DEEP LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THEREFORE EXPECT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TO BE SHALLOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AS PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG COOLING ALOFT WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT AS TOO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE BOTH THURS AND FRI BUT AS THIS LOW DIGS SOUTH THERE WILL BE STRONG COOLING ALOFT PRODUCING STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EXPECT ANY MOISTURE TO BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND BUT COULD BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER. KEPT MENTION OF HAIL FOR THURS AFTN AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL LOWER FREEZING HEIGHTS AND WBZ TEMPS TO 5 TO 6K FT. OVERALL EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN WITH A COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE AND SOME GUSTY PASSING SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH AROUND 70 MOST PLACES BOTH DAYS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR 50 WITH SPOTS BELOW 50. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY AS THE COLD LOW LIFTS NORTH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW PLAGUING THE EAST COAST WILL FINALLY GET KICKED OUT TO THE EAST SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL DRAG A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY STALL AND WASH OUT TO OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE UP FROM THE GULF COAST. THEREAFTER...A MORE TYPICAL LATE SPRING PATTERN DEVELOPS AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT...EXPANDING THROUGH MID-WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING WITH THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES POSSIBLE. WILL MAINTAIN SILENT POP THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER AS FORCING LOOKS LIMITED EACH DAY. TEMPS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN COOL...SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO...BEFORE WARMING TO ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.&& && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 06Z...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING. VFR EXPECTED WITH VCSH BY AFTERNOON AS COLD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE IS A RISK FOR ISOLATED SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS AT THIS JUNCTURE...BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY INCLUDE TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MOST OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF SOUTH CAROLINA WHILE CROSSING THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT W-NW ACROSS THE WATERS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE. MAY SEE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT AND A FEW 5 FT WAVES IN EXTREME OUTER WATERS BUT OVERALL SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT MOST WATERS. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRONG W-NW OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS DEEP LOW DROPS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THEN LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE OFF SHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE WITH SOME 4 TO 5 FTERS THROUGH THURS INTO EARLY FRI. GUSTS TO 25 KT MAY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DURING PORTIONS OF THIS PERIOD EVEN THOUGH SEAS NEAR SHORE WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO SLOWLY BACK FROM NW EARLY SAT TO SW BY SUNDAY MORNING...AT 10-15 KT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ON SUNDAY...AND LIKELY STALL AND DISSIPATE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED...A SUBTLE VEERING IN DIRECTION TO WEST IS FORECAST ALONG WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS...BEFORE SW WINDS REDEVELOP ON MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT SAT/SUN WITH A 2 FT 8-9 SEC SE WAVE AND 3 FT 4 SEC VEERING WIND WAVE COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. MORE UNIFORM SEAS AROUND 3 FT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...RJD/DRH

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