Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 210756 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 256 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm through much of the week. High pressure extending down the east coast today will shift offshore Wednesday. A trough of low pressure will bring increased cloudiness and some showers mid week. Near record warmth will come Friday with an increasing chance of showers ahead of an approaching cold front Friday night into Saturday. Much Cooler and drier high pressure will build in behind the cold front Saturday night into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Tuesday...Expect dry weather to continue through the near term. However, we will see increasing cloud cover, initially primarily cirrus, as a complex mid-level trough approaches eastern CONUS, with an upper low breaking off from the base of the trough and spinning off into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite loops and model soundings both show this scenario currently unfolding. Increasing cloud cover will knock a few degrees off yesterdays highs, with max readings this afternoon of right around 70. Thickening cloud cover will also moderate minimums overnight, with lows dropping only into the lower and mid 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Tuesday...Retaining slight chance pops for much of Wednesday and Thursday as an upper low and its developing surface reflection swing out of the Gulf of Mexico and then across Florida and the Bahamas. A generally amorphous pattern with lack of any strong triggers and very dry mid-levels means QPF will be kept on the minimal side. Temperatures will continue to run unseasonably mild, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s for both days.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 300 AM Tuesday...Cutoff low exiting the Florida coast on Friday will leave a surface low which rides up just off the southeast coast through Sat morning. Should pull off a very warm day on Friday with some clouds mixing with the sun and temps reaching well into the 70s to near 80. A trough will extend up from this low maintaining a more easterly flow at the sfc and as the low approaches from the south in our off shore waters Fri night into Sat, the winds will be more northeasterly. There will be a general warm and moist return flow around Atlantic ridge through the low levels, but this more easterly on shore flow at the sfc will produce slightly cooler air flow on Sat, as well as some clouds and shwrs possible. The sfc low will reach Hatteras on Sat morning just about the same time a cold front will be approaching from the west. The winds may veer around to the SW soon enough before the front on Saturday to kick temps near 80 once again. The best upper level support will remain to our north but expect some showers possible associated with this cold front through Sat aftn. Once the cold front moves off shore Saturday evening, high pressure will build in with a deeper W-NW flow of cooler and drier air. Expect a dip in 850 temps from near 12c on Sat, down below 0c Sat night through Sunday. Therefore our unseasonably warm temps near 80 on Fri and into the mid 70s on Saturday will not make it past 60 on Sunday. The high temp on Sunday will be more similar to the previous night`s low temps. Dewpoint temps will drop a good 20 degrees leaving a very dry air mass for Sun into Mon. Clouds over the area Fri night into Saturday will dissipate leaving plenty of sunshine for Sunday and Monday. With high pressure moving closer overhead Sun night, should see decent radiational cooling bringing temps down into the 30s
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 06Z...Expect VFR through the valid TAF period as high pressure continues to build into the area. Mainly FEW/SCT cirrus expected overnight into Tuesday as easterly winds remain around 5 kts. After daybreak, northeast winds in the morning will return to easterly in the afternoon, persisting around 5 to 10 kts. Cirrus will continue to stream across the area as well, becoming BKN/OVC towards the end of the period. Extended Outlook... Patchy fog possible late Tuesday night. Isolated showers late Wednesday through Thursday. Showers possible Saturday with a cold front. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...A weak high pressure system over the western Atlantic will keep winds generally NE to E through today and tonight with seas of right around 2 ft. Some 3 footers will be present during the daylight hours, primarily over our NC waters and out around 20 nm for our SC waters. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...High pressure over the waters will keep winds in the 10 kt range for Wednesday and Thursday. However, Longwave swell generated by a developing low over the Bahamas will bring increasingly high combined sea heights, with seas gradually building to 3 to 5 ft Thursday night. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Weak sfc low will move up the southeast coast Fri into Sat. This will produce a more easterly flow and possibly NE as the low reaches north toward Cape Fear by Sat morning. The winds should remain less than 15 kts over most of the waters but may reach slightly higher Fri aftn in the outer waters. As this low tracks off toward Hatteras on Sat, a cold front will approach from the west. Winds will back to the W-SW briefly ahead of the front Sat aftn before shifting to the NW through Sat night and increasing up around 20 kts. The onshore push through Fri will build seas up to 3 to 5 ft in the aftn and up to 4 to 6 ft Fri night. Will most likely need some type of precautionary or SCA headlines late Fri into early Sat.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...REK

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