Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 231727 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 127 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will run below normal through early Friday as cool high pressure holds across the area. A warming trend will begin Friday afternoon through the weekend, as a low pressure system slowly approaches from the west. This system will bring a chance of rain late in the weekend, followed by another system Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 815 AM Thursday...Have cancelled the Freeze Warning as temperatures are on the rise and now above freezing everywhere. No other changes to the near term forecast. Relevant portion of previous discussion from earlier this morning follows: Today will be slightly warmer (less cold) than previously though even if by 2-3 degrees. Even so, highs a few degrees within 60 are still about a good 10 degrees below climatology. Our light NE to E winds will veer to SE as the day wears on as high pressure to our north progresses eastward. This trend lasts into tonight and the addition of moisture may lead to some fog along coastal areas. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Primary headline this period is a notable warming trend after a nippy start daybreak Friday. High pressure migrating offshore Friday and strong low pressure churning toward the central Mississippi valley will bring a robust warm air advection regime, with low to mid 70s looking like a good bet both Friday and Saturday. This will bring low temperatures Saturday morning 12-16 degrees milder compared to Friday morning. Minimal or no rain chances this period however until after Saturday. The atmospheric column will remain quite dry above 800 millibars both days, with periods of cumulus in the cards Friday afternoon through Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Rain chances are best inland Sunday as a low pressure system swerves north, well west of the coast. A warm and humid day Sunday all areas, well into the 70s, if not a few 80s depending on cloud cover extent, even ceiling breaks could warm the air quickly. A rumble of thunder is possible and favored inland. A few low pressure centers beneath short-waves will sustain low end rain chances Monday into Tuesday. QPF looks quite low but hopefully enough to knock a little pollen out of the sky and pines. No cold air on the horizon and temperatures overall appear to run above normal through the extended period. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 18Z...VFR all terminals through the TAF valid period with cool and dry high pressure overhead. Winds will go light overnight. Extended outlook...MVFR in showers possible Sunday through Tuesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 815 AM Thursday...Small Craft Advisory remains in effect with no changes. Latest obs show seas in the 5 to 6 ft range with NE winds of around 20 kts. Previous discussion from earlier this morning follows: Though winds have tapered inland they continue to be breezy along the beaches and still downright howling over the coastal waters. As such a Small Craft advisory continues. The gradient will abate today albeit quite gradually and conditions will remain unfit for most recreational mariners for most of the day. In fact with conditions so slow to abate and seas lagging as they always do we may need a short-lived SCEC headline after the advisory ends this evening into early tonight. But later tonight conditions will fall below any thresholds, though some choppy 4 or occasional 5 ft seas will linger and many mariners may want to put off boating until the much quieter short term. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 AM Thursday...A veering wind trend this period but manageable as high pressure slips offshore. Winds Friday and Saturday 15 KT or less, except a few higher gusts near shore in the afternoon as the sea breeze gears up. seas 3 feet or less mainly in SE waves every 6-7 seconds. No TSTMS expected this period nor obstructions to visibility. A light to moderate chop for both days. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 AM Thursday...No advisories are expected Sunday and Monday but seas may approach 4 feet since southerly flow remains persistent. Isolated marine showers can be expected this period but TSTMS if any would be confined to the Gulf Stream if at all. Seas 3-4 feet mainly in SE waves between 7-10 second intervals with a moderate chop. The warm land temps will support a sea breeze so expected gusts near 20 KT near shore in the afternoon hours. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...REK/MBB SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...REK MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB

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