Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 210554 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 154 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT WEST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TUESDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND STALL NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1045 PM SUNDAY...WITH THE DAYS INSOLATION OVER-WITH... CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WANE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH WILL NOT COMPLETELY TURN OFF THE SPIGOT... MODELS INDICATE A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF AFFECTING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. THIS UPPER S/W TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA OVERNIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS TO INTERACT WITH A SATURATED AIRMASS OVERNIGHT RESULTING WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS DURING THE PREDAWN MONDAY HOURS. HOURLY NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE PWS INCREASING TO GREATER THAN 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FA DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO DAYLIGHT MONDAY. IN THE END...WILL EITHER INDICATE POPS IN THE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE...OR POSSIBLY THE LIKELY CATEGORY GIVEN WHAT THE AREAL COVERAGE WORKS OUT TO BE. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE BOARD. GIVEN ONSHORE WINDS OVERNIGHT...ALBEIT ON THE LIGHT SIDE...PUSHING ACROSS 80 DEGREE SSTS AND ACCOMPANIED BY LOW TO MID 70S SFC DEWPOINTS. ITS SEEMS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT FOR TONIGHTS MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE FA TO DROP INTO THE 60S. OVERALL...WILL CONTINUE WITH TONIGHTS MINS HIGHER THAN THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE MOS GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...IT COULD BE A WET DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND AN OLD FRONT STALLED NEARBY. ADDITIONALLY...AND A S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. EXPECT TO SEE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. MAXES MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S MOST AREAS WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AROUND 70. THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE TUESDAY BUT THE OLD FRONT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE AREA AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH MAX BE MORE PRONOUNCED. THE WRF EVEN BRINGS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TUESDAY WITH THE MAXIMUM IN COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MAXIMUM SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MINS AGAIN AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE SETUP TO THE WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST ON FRIDAY. THE REGION WILL BE IN THE CLASSICAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE PERIOD. SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH A FEW MIDDLE 90S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S. AS THE FRONT REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN INTO THE LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 70S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...AREAS OF 1-2KFT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITHIN THIS VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SFC WINDS SHOULD INHIBIT FOG...SO ONLY VSBY ISSUES WILL BE THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH PCPN. AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THIS MORNING... POTENTIALLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO OUR TERMS BEFORE 12Z. KFLO HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY EARLY MORNING PCPN OR TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LIGHT/VRB WINDS WILL BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KTS DURING THE DAY. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS OUR CWA. WILL INCLUDE PREVAILING SHRA WITH VCTS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. TEMPO MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHRA OR TSRA...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY TEMPO GROUPS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PERSISTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STORMS.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1045 PM SUNDAY...RIDGING TO EXTEND SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A COASTAL TROF WILL EXTEND NE-SW ACROSS THE ATL WATERS...SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINES. OVERALL...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN TO YIELD ESE TO SE WIND DIRECTIONS OVERNIGHT. THE SFC PG WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT RELAXED...YIELDING AROUND 10 KT OR LESS FOR WIND SPEEDS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY AN 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIOD ESE GROUND SWELL...WITH VERY LITTLE INPUT FROM ANY LOW PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES. OVERALL...AROUND 3 FT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS LOOKS AOK. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE. WINDS MAY BECOME SW TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ASHORE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT AROUND 15 KNOTS BUTS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY AT 20 MILES OFF THE COAST. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE PERIOD OUT AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET AND WITH INCREASE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...RAN LONG TERM...DRH AVIATION...BJR/RJD

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