-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 012342
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
642 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT MAY KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS UNSETTLED
ON THURSDAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 642 PM SUNDAY...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND MIST ACCOMPANIED BY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ENSHROUDED THE FORECAST AREA THIS EARLY
EVENING. A VARIETY OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES PLAGUED SE NC AND NE
SC...WITH A DECK OF LOW CEILING CAPPING SKIES IN A DAMP LOW-LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE. MEASURABLE RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL DWINDLE AS
SHORT-WAVE PERTURBATIONS PASS...AS AGREED BY THE MAJORITY OF NEAR
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS. COUNT ON PERIODS OF DRIZZLE HOWEVER AND MIST
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS A STUBBORN AND SHALLOW BUT STABLE
COOL WEDGE HANGS ON BENEATH PREDOMINANT SW WIND FLOW ALOFT AS
REVEALED IN KLTX VAD WIND PROFILE TIME LAPSE. AS A CONSEQUENCE
HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONLY QUITE SLOWLY AS RH VALUES
REMAIN PEGGED IN DESCENDING DZ/-RA. RAIN RATES OF TRACE TO 0.02
INCHES PER HOUR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING BEFORE THE RAIN EXITS
TO THE NE LATER TONIGHT...LEAVING A SLOWLY FADING WEDGE AND
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE AND FOG IN ITS WAKE. LOW DAYBREAK MONDAY UPPERS
30 INLAND TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST...MIDDLE 40S AREA
BEACHES AND ICW CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVE REGIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN MON MORNING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MON AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AROUND ON MON...DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER ISOLATED
SPOTS WILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. WILL CONFINE POPS TO NEAR 20
PERCENT OR JUST BELOW ON MON. A VERY PRONOUNCED NEAR SURFACE
INVERSION WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS/FOG AROUND FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING. THIS STRONG INVERSION DOES FINALLY BREAK DOWN AND SO WE
MAY AT LEAST SEE SOME GLIMPSES OF SUNSHINE DURING MON.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OUT OF THE MID-WEST AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS
WILL LOCK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER MON NIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO TUE AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION REDEVELOPS ON LOW-LEVEL NE FLOW. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MON NIGHT AS MOIST S TO SW OR WSW
WINDS ABOVE 2 KFT TOP THE COOL DOME OF AIR NEAR THE SURFACE.
ALSO...A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MON NIGHT AND
TUE. THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT ATLANTIC MOISTURE OVER THE TOP OF THE
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AND NOT ONLY KEEP SKIES CLOUDY...BUT BRING MORE
WET WEATHER. THERE IS NO RISK OF ANY FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

THE HIGH DOES MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT AND THE
MODELS ARE IN A HURRY TO BREAK DOWN THE WEDGE. ALTHOUGH IT MAY
EVOLVE SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY PORTRAYED...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONGER AND ITS PROXIMITY SHOULD ALLOW A WARMER
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT ALL LEVELS. WILL SHOW TEMPS
TRENDING HIGHER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MON LIKELY
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN TUE. HIGHS MON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO SUBTRACT A GOOD 10 DEGREES FROM THOSE VALUES
ON TUE. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S MON
NIGHT. LOWS TUE EVE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE HIGHS OF THE DAY AND
THEN MOVE UPWARDS FROM THERE DURING THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...VERY WARM START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY IN QUITE A WHILE. UPPER RIDGE WILL
HOLD ON UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AS DEEP TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH
THE MID WEST. THIS WILL AID IN KEEPING A DRIER AND WARMER DAY OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH OVERALL MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
IS GENERALLY HIGH WITH UP TO 1.3 INCHES OF PCP WATER WED
MORNING...THE SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES KEEP IT CONFINED TO
VERY LOW LEVELS AND VERY HIGH WITH A DECENT DRY LAYER THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP PUSH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. THE COAST WILL NOT BE AS FORTUNATE AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING THE COOLER OCEAN AIR OVER THE BEACHES
ADVECTING INLAND A BIT. ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG WILL EXIST AS
THE WARMER AIR RUSHES OVER THE COOLER WATERS. BY LATE WED SHWRS WILL
INCREASE AS COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. WILL KEEP LOW END POPS OVER
PORTIONS OF AREA...MAINLY INLAND ON WED BUT EXPECT BEST CHC OF PCP
TO COME WED EVE INTO THURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CAA TO FOLLOW. SEEMS LIKE MODELS ARE
COMING BACK TO AN EARLIER FROPA FOR WED NIGHT INSTEAD OF THURS. MAY
SEE MAX TEMPS FOR THURS AT MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING BEHIND
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS WHERE FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL COME RUSHING IN
BUT MID TO UPPER TROUGH HANGS BACK TO THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT
WHICH SHOULD REMAINED ALIGNED SW TO NE JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THEREFORE
CLOUDS AND PCP SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THURS AND POSSIBLY LONGER.
ALTHOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE LOCKED IN AT THE SFC...WARMER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP ALL PCP AS A COLD RAIN BEHIND FRONT AT THIS POINT. THE
GFS DOES SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE SWINGING OFF THE COAST BY FRI MORNING
AS SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS...BUT A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE EAST WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BUT THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR OTHER SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL REMAIN
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A DRIER ALTHOUGH
COOLER FORECAST.

TEMPS WILL TAKE A DIVE ONCE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH WED NIGHT WITH
850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12C WED AFTN DROPPING DOWN JUST BELOW 0C BY FRI
MORNING. THIS STRONG CAA AND POSSIBLY LINGERING CLOUDS AND PCP WILL
KEEP VERY COOL TEMPS FOR THURS AND FRI. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS
MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING INTO THE 40S ON THURS AND NOT EVEN REACHING
40 ON FRI IN MANY PLACES. FOR NOW...WILL TREND COOLER BUT NOT GET
THAT EXTREME JUST YET AS MODELS HAVE NOT REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR LATE WEEK. HESITANT ESPECIALLY ON FRI AS
SUNSHINE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT AND THIS TIME OF YEAR THE SUN IS
PLAYING A BIGGER ROLE IN WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE NEXT SET OF TAFS AS
FRONT PRETTY MUCH LAYS OVER TOP OF US THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE FROM IFR TO MVFR BEFORE REMAINING
PREDOMINATELY IFR OVERNIGHT. LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE COAST WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION IN A FEW HOURS...AND THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS
TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON IT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL GIVE US MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT...QUITE LIGHT. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY
BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR OR BETTER. FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR LATE MON. PERIODS OF MVFR/SHOWERS
TUE/WED. RAIN/IFR THUR. VFR DEVELOPING FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 642 PM SUNDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH
THE DYING COASTAL TROUGH NOW CLOSE TO THE COAST. WINDS AT 41013
HAVE GONE S AROUND 15 KT. ENE 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. CLOSER TO DAYBREAK LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS
WEAK HIGH CENTERED OVER GA/SC BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK AND WESTERLY FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND OVERNIGHT...FALLING TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT CHANGEABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS THIS PERIOD. WINDS MON MORNING WILL BE WESTERLY...BUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO N DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NE WINDS WILL BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MON
NIGHT AS A SURGE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO EASTERLY DURING TUE AND
THEN SE AND S BY TUE EVE AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MOVES FURTHER
OFFSHORE. WINDS OVERNIGHT TUE WILL VEER TO SW AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT...UP TO 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST MON NIGHT INTO TUE...UP TO 4 TO 7 FT. SEAS
MAY APPROACH 6 FT TUE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE
WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED UP
TO 15 TO 20 KTS KEEPING SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE BUT
WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO THURS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL PRODUCE WINDS UP NEAR 20 KTS AS THEY
SHIFT MORE ABRUPTLY AROUND FROM SW TO N BEHIND FRONT OVERNIGHT WED.
STRONG CAA AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL KEEP SEAS UP TO 4 TO 7 FT
THURS. THE FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NW. THIS MAY KEEP A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THURS INTO FRI.
WINDS WILL LIGHTEN THROUGH LATE FRI AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
MARINE...III/RJD/RGZ/MJC
AVIATION...DL