-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 110236
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
936 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
UNSETTLED AS A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...COLDER
AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS AS 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI MOVES EAST. UNLIKE THE "TYPICAL" COLD
ADVECTION SCENARIO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THERE IS VERY LITTLE WIND AS
A SURFACE RIDGE...AN EXTENSION OF THE HIGH...ALREADY EXTENDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. THIS HAS CREATED TWO PROBLEMS: TEMPERATURES
HAVE FALLEN VERY QUICKLY DUE TO RADIATIONAL (RATHER THAN ADVECTIVE)
COOLING...AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS GENERATED PATCHES OF
FOG WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE EARLIER IN LAURINBURG AND
1/4 MILE IN MARION. A SECONDARY NORTHERLY SURGE BRINGING MUCH DRIER
DEWPOINTS SOUTHWARD HAS JUST PASSED THROUGH ROCKINGHAM AND
FAYETTEVILLE IN THE PAST HOUR...AND THIS SHOULD ELIMINATE ANY
POTENTIAL FOR FOG SHORTLY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL PLUNGE TO BARELY 0.15 INCHES OVERNIGHT...
POSSIBLY THE LOWEST WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST WINTER. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOWS WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM 28-30 INLAND
TO THE LOWER-MID 30S NEAR THE BEACHES.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS THE SHORT TERM IS
OFFERING UP SOME QUIETER AND COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE AND
ZONAL FLOW TYPICALLY CHARACTERISTIC OF COOL AND SUNNY CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO DELIVER JUST THAT. SHALLOW MIXING WITHIN THE HIGH PAIRED
WITH ITS LOW THETA VALUES TO BRING HIGHS THAT STRUGGLE TO 50 AND
LOWS IN THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S INLAND...BOTH ROUGHLY A CATEGORY
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. HEADING INTO THURSDAY THERE APPEARS TO BE A RE
ASSERTION OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGING IN SOME LOWER THETA
AIR. AT THE SAME TIME FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIGHTLY DEEPER BOUNDARY
LAYER. IN THE END THE FORMER APPEARS TO SLIGHTLY WIN OUT AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER...PERHAPS JUST ABOUT 2
DEGREES MOST LOCALES. MIXING EFFECT NATURALLY NEGATED HEADING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT SO A CHILLER NIGHT COMING UP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 PM TUESDAY...LATE START AND PRETTY CONSISTENT GUIDANCE
LEADS TO MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED. QUIET AND COLD TO START
AND FINISH THE PERIOD...WITH THE ACTIVE WEATHER OCCURRING OVER THE
WKND.

STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND TRACK INLAND OF
THE COAST...MOVING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING EARLY
SATURDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A DECENT SHORTWAVE
MOVING ALOFT COMBINED WITH PWATS RISING TO OVER ONE INCH AND
SIGNIFICANT THETA-E RIDGING...SUPPORTS A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WPC QPF HAS AROUND 1 INCH AREA-WIDE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FEEL THIS IS WARRANTED
DUE TO RAIN SATURDAY AND CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE COLD FRONT PUSHED OFFSHORE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...
SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. A FEW
LOW CLOUDS LINGER ALONG THE COAST...WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
KFLO AND KLBT HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUT. NORTH WINDS 4-8 KTS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS THE GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY MEANS SUNNY SKIES
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 8 KTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY
WITH SHOWERS/MVFR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS BUILT SEAS TO AS HIGH AS 10 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN
SHOALS BUOY EARLIER TODAY. BEHIND THIS AFTERNOON`S COLD FRONT WINDS
ARE NOW NORTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15-20 KNOTS...EXCEPT WE
ARE STILL SEEING GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY. THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AND THE TREND IN
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
DOWNWARD. SEAS IN PARTICULAR WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO FALL BELOW 6
FEET WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ON FROM THE
NW ON WEDNESDAY TO BRING A LIGHTENING N TO NE FLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS. A SECONDARY PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE/RENEWED COOL AIR CROSSES
THE REGION WEDNESDAY  NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS
THIS HAPPENS BUT WIND SPEED MAY INCREASE A CATEGORY. SO WHILE THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT MAY SEE AN EASING OF WAVE HEIGHTS FROM THE 2
TO 4 FT AFTERNOON FORECAST IT LOOKS LIKE THEY`LL BE RIGHT BACK AT 2
TO 4 FT FOR MOST OF THURSDAY AND PROBABLY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WELL.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 500 PM TUESDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS LIKELY SAT INTO SUN AS A STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHEAST...JUST INLAND OF THE COAST. WHILE
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT NE-TO-SE WINDS...THESE WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS SATURDAY...THEN BECOME SW AND
EVENTUALLY NW SUNDAY AT 15-20 KTS AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM 2-3 FT EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BECOMING 4-8 FT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ON THE INCREASING WINDS...AND AN SCA IS LIKELY
FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         AMZ250-252-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ254.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR