-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 291416
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1016 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE BUILDS WEST AND
BRINGS A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...STORM CREWS ARE IN CONWAY SC THIS MORNING TO
DETERMINE IF LAST NIGHTS WIND DAMAGE WAS INDUCED BY A TORNADO OR
STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. AN OFFICIAL STATEMENT VIA A PNS WILL
BE RELEASED LATER TODAY WITH THE FINAL ASSESSMENT.

TODAY...VAPOR ANIMATIONS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH QUITE WELL...DRAPED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LINGERING 900MB-750MB MOISTURE AND JULY
SUNSHINE WILL PRODUCE MODERATE AFTERNOON CUMULUS. AM NOT EXPECTING
MEASURABLE RAINFALL BUT A FEW DROPS ON THE WINDSHIELD WOULD NOT BE
ENTIRELY SHOCKING AS WE RESIDE BENEATH A COOL POOL OF AIR ALOFT SO
LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS ARE RUNNING HIGH TODAY. THIS IS
FAVORED MOSTLY OVER THE INTERIOR OF SE NC THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUMS MAINLY MIDDLE 80S IN A NE WIND THAT LOOKS TO EASE INTO
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW ANALYZED OFFSHORE OF
CAPE FEAR WEAKENS...AND DRIFTS NE TO OPEN WATERS.

COOL MINIMUMS EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR JULY 30 WILL RUN 5-8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE AIR MASS MAY NOT
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR RECORD LOWS AT LONG ESTABLISHED CLIMATIC SITES.
RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 30 INCLUDE ILM-61 LBT-67 FLO-63 AND MYR-69.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...DEEP DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA MAINTAINS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WED WILL
SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES THU. GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY. HIGHS
CLOSE TO WATER TEMPS WILL PREVENT ANY REAL SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING DESPITE WEAK WIND FIELD. WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH WOULD SUGGEST MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WED...THOUGH FILTERED THROUGH INCREASING CIRRUS SHIELD LATER
IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WEAK
CONVERGENCE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AS EASTERLY WINDS
SETUP. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THESE...ESPECIALLY WITH MOS POP IN THE
SINGLE DIGIT RANGE...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. DESPITE PLENTY
OF SUN MID LEVEL TROUGHING KEEPS HIGHS BELOW CLIMO...MID 80S. LOWS
BELOW CLIMO ARE EXPECTED WED NIGHT...MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WED INTO THU WILL
CAUSE THE 5H TROUGH TO DIG DURING THU. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS A
RESULT COMMENCING A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE TOO LITTLE TOO LATE AS FAR AS MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
CONCERNED FOR THU...BUT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ACROSS SC COUNTIES LATE THU NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY THU WITH SKIES ULTIMATELY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUD THU
NIGHT. COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED DEEP MOISTURE WILL
KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER. MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EXPANDING WESTERN
ATLANTIC 5H RIDGE WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED THROUGH INTO NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE THE REMAINS OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF WEAK SUB TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AT SOME POINT...BUT WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUN THE FEATURE BECOMES WEAKER/MORE DIFFUSE. NOT READY TO COUNT ON IT
YET BUT DO THINK THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE COVERAGE
SAT/SUN. WILL BUMP WEEKEND POP TO HIGH CHC WHILE MAINTAINING LOW/MID
CHC POP FRI/MON. CLOUD COVER AND [PRECIP ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL
RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO AIDED BY CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR WITH SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING AS COOLER
AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS UNDER NW- NE
FLOW. THIS AFTERNOON HIGH BASED SC/CU WILL DEVELOP AS WIND
DIRECTIONS VEER TO THE E-SE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A FEW LOW
TOPPED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS ATTM. VFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS DUE TO MORNING FOG FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. CHANCE MAINLY AFTN/EVNG SHRA/ISOLATED
TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...N-NE WIND AT 10-15 KTS TODAY. IF THE SFC PG
ENDS UP BEING TIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THEN HIER WIND
SPEEDS WILL NEED TO BE APPLIED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVING SUBSIDED
FROM THEIR RECENT HIGHS YESTERDAY...WILL HOLD IN A 2 TO 4 FOOT
RANGE. THE 4 FOOTERS ARE RESERVED FOR THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE
FEAR. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6 TO 7 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE WATERS WILL
DRIFT EAST WED INTO THU. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH EASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS. LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT TEMP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LAND/WATER RULES OUT A SEA
BREEZE EITHER DAY BUT A LAND BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
WED NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SEAS WILL
RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE ON FRI WILL BE PUSHED
WEST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...ACCOMPANIED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER. GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT DIRECTION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION
OF THE BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BUT
COULD RANGE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST AT ANY GIVEN MOMENT INTO SAT
BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ONSHORE. LIGHT WINDS
AND CHANGEABLE DIRECTION WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...III/DCH/MJC