Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 250808 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 408 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Above normal temperatures will prevail much of the upcoming week as high pressure offshore brings southerly winds. A series of low pressure systems will bring a chance of rain Monday into Tuesday, and again late next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 4 AM Saturday...A southerly return flow will maintain an a warm and slightly more humid air mass across the eastern Carolinas. An extensive field of strato cu over the waters was getting pushed onto the coast in this deep SE flow...mainly south of Cape Fear. Aloft, the mid to upper ridge will continue to slip farther east allowing for a SW flow in the mid to upper levels to throw some higher clouds over the Carolinas. The combination of these two will produce partly to mostly cloudy skies across the area into the morning. Other cu will develop with the heating of the day and convergence along sea breeze as it develops and pushes inland through the day. There even may be a stray shower, but not great enough chc to warrant putting it forecast. Temperatures will remain about 5 to 10 degrees above normal with the afternoon high temps in the mid 70s and overnight lows in the mid 50s Sat night. A cool sea breeze will keep the coast cooler and will push inland through the afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 4 AM Saturday...Mild and moist regime this period as a surface low tracks from the middle Mississippi valley into the Great Lakes, prompting moderate warm air advection. Overall rain chances will remain low-end, but better on Monday as a short-wave approaches the area from the west. QPF-wise however do not expect a great deal of rain. Heating inland may offer hit and miss decent amounts from convection, and instability indices warrant inclusion of TSTMS Monday as column moisture deepens. Each afternoon a robust sea breeze will spread cooling into the coastal interior, with an uptick in gusty winds by the coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 4 AM Saturday...Surface low over the Ohio valley Tuesday will track NE into New England by Wednesday, propelling a cold front across the Carolinas, and a chance of showers and a few TSTMS. The front will scoot offshore Wednesday. High pressure will very briefly build in from the NW, but a progressive southern stream system will snap us right back into a warm air advection pattern Thursday, with a storm and decent rainfall potential late Thursday into Friday. It appears right now high pressure will build in just in time to bring a drying and slight cooling trend into Saturday. Temperatures overall to run a little above normal for late March this period.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 06Z...VFR is expected at all the terminals, although a period of MVFR BR is possible around sunrise, 09-12z, at KLBT and there may also be brief BR at KFLO overnight. For KILM, KMYR and KCRE, marine stratocumulus, 3-5 kft should advect onshore through this morning, with a ceiling likely at KCRE and KMYR. Expect scattered to broken cumulus and stratocumulus, 3500 to 5000 ft, to develop for the inland terminals while more or less persisting for the coastal terminals. There will be a tendency for the lower clouds to erode in the wake of the stabilizing seabreeze at the coastal terminals. Can not rule out a spotty shower, but not enough of a chc to be included in any TAF. Extended outlook...Flight category restrictions are possible in stratus/fog during the early morning hours Sun and in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sun through Tue. Expect VFR conditions once cold front moves through on Wed. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 4 AM Saturday...A S to SE return flow 10 kts or less will continue across the waters through the period. With temps rising into the mid 70s this afternoon, a decent sea breeze will develop helping to produce a spike in the on shore flow over the near shore waters, as well as a slight backing of the winds to a more SE on shore direction. Seas will show a slight rise through the period with the southerly push but will basically remain between 2 and 4 ft. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 4 AM Saturday...Smooth sailing this period with southerly winds 15 kt or less and seas 3 feet or less. An isolated shower or a TSTM is possible Monday as a disturbance passes just to the north of the area. SE swell waves of 2-3 feet every 10-11 seconds will move landward born from a surface low NE of the Bahama chain, but no advisories are expected, only that sea heights will be slightly elevated with given winds and up to 4 ft outer portion. Light to moderate chop can be expected this period. Sea fog Monday near shore is not out of the question. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 4 AM Saturday...Showers and a few TSTMS can be expected Tuesday as a frontal system crosses the waters. This will also cause winds to go flat into Wednesday with very weak high pressure or a back door cold front, but resuming an onshore component into Thursday, as another low pressure approaches from the west. Seas 3-5 feet in a combination of SE swell and local wind waves. A small craft advisory or exercise caution statement may be needed by Thursday evening as the low nears for gusty southerly winds and elevated seas.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...RGZ

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