Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 261415 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1015 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge of high pressure will allow for warm temperatures and minimal rain chances through much of the weekend and early next week. At the surface there will be a light onshore flow. A wave of low pressure will be monitored for possible tropical development as it moves across southern Florida during the weekend and then into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1000 AM Friday...High pressure extending down the coast from New England will slowly become more diffuse today, while upper ridge expands and strengthens across the Mid-Atlantic. With the high pressure offshore and weakening, winds will persist from the SW but at light speeds, while flow aloft will become increasingly northerly. These two features interact to produce a very warm but dry day across the area, with highs forecast to rise into the mid 90s inland, around 90 at the coast. High res guidance shows a few showers developing this aftn, but expect this is overdone due to subsidence and drying aloft, so have maintained a dry forecast. Diurnal CU will likely become scattered to widespread this aftn however, but stay very shallow beneath the capping inversion aloft. CU will wane after dark leaving a mostly clear sky. A few stratocu may advect onshore to the coast late overnight, but otherwise a clear and warm night is forecast, with mins falling only into the low 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Friday...The chief weather caption this period is `nice and warm late summer weekend`. Temperatures will run a few degrees above normal with isolated rain chances, primarily inland during afternoon heating. The upper ridge to the north will maintain a hold of the area for the most part. By Sunday, swell waves may increase the rip current risk but no direct tropical threat is expected this weekend. Column moisture begins to deepen up to 700 MB by Saturday afternoon as the upper ridge weakens and lower column winds become more onshore. This coupled with several weak impulses rounding the upper ridge could spark a few showers or a storm this weekend, though isolated in anticipated coverage and late in the afternoon or during the evening. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 AM Friday...Weakening mid level ridge center will be to our north on Monday and the surface pattern will favor a light onshore flow. On these matters models agree pretty well. How strong of a vort max slides under the southern edge of the upper ridge is not. GFS has trended towards the stronger solutions so this feature may be able to boost ascent over the low level moist flow for at least chance POPS to be warranted. Upper weakness remains along the coast Tuesday though it may shift eastward slightly. Wednesday and Thursday brings a broad and deepening trough into New England that will cause a drying NW flow locally. Temperatures will show very little variation through the period and tend to average just a few degrees above climatology. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 12Z...No significant weather expected and VFR is likely to continue at all terminals through the next 24 hours. The only chance of sub VFR will be when patchy fog develops early Saturday morning. Light and variable winds will become E as the morning progresses, then SE. Sct-bkn stratocumulus inov 5-6k early will become generally sct by late morning/early afternoon. Winds become light/variable to calm this evening. After 08Z have added tempo groups to fog prone terminals KCRE/KLBT to indicate the increased potential of fog. Confidence of occurrence is moderate, but confidence is low as to timing and actual vsby reductions. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Potential for sub VFR due to areas of haze or fog early each morning and with isolated convection on Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM Friday...Large but weak high pressure extending down the coast will be the dominant feature today, maintaining light E/NE winds through this aftn before shifting slowly to the SE tonight. Speeds will be 10 kts or less throughout. These light winds will allow several wave groups to show up in the wave spectrum, and a 7-8 sec SE swell will remain the dominant wave group in seas of 2-3 ft today and tonight. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Friday...Opportunity abounds this weekend as marine conditions remain welcoming. Light and variable winds early Saturday will become SE 10 KT or less. High pressure building slightly in from the north will produce NE-E winds 10 KT Sunday. With low wind energy overall, longer period waves of 9 and 11 seconds should be seen. Very late in the period Sunday night we may see wave heights increase due to swell waves. A few showers will dot the waters Sunday. LONG TERM/MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 AM Friday...A very light wind expected both days with a poorly defined pressure pattern just barely strong enough to keep an E flow direction pronounced. The exception will be where wind locally turns coast-perpendicular and accelerates a few knots as the seabreeze develops each afternoon. The shorter wind chop will thus be minimal but there will be a well defined swell component from Gaston.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR MARINE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.