Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS62 KILM 261415
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1015 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016
An upper level ridge of high pressure will allow for warm
temperatures and minimal rain chances through much of the weekend
and early next week. At the surface there will be a light onshore
flow. A wave of low pressure will be monitored for possible
tropical development as it moves across southern Florida during
the weekend and then into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 1000 AM Friday...High pressure extending down the coast from
New England will slowly become more diffuse today, while upper ridge
expands and strengthens across the Mid-Atlantic. With the high
pressure offshore and weakening, winds will persist from the SW but
at light speeds, while flow aloft will become increasingly
northerly. These two features interact to produce a very warm but
dry day across the area, with highs forecast to rise into the mid 90s
inland, around 90 at the coast. High res guidance shows a few
showers developing this aftn, but expect this is overdone due to
subsidence and drying aloft, so have maintained a dry forecast.
Diurnal CU will likely become scattered to widespread this aftn
however, but stay very shallow beneath the capping inversion aloft.
CU will wane after dark leaving a mostly clear sky. A few stratocu
may advect onshore to the coast late overnight, but otherwise a
clear and warm night is forecast, with mins falling only into the
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Friday...The chief weather caption this period is `nice
and warm late summer weekend`. Temperatures will run a few degrees
above normal with isolated rain chances, primarily inland during
afternoon heating. The upper ridge to the north will maintain a hold
of the area for the most part. By Sunday, swell waves may increase
the rip current risk but no direct tropical threat is expected this
weekend. Column moisture begins to deepen up to 700 MB by Saturday
afternoon as the upper ridge weakens and lower column winds become
more onshore. This coupled with several weak impulses rounding the
upper ridge could spark a few showers or a storm this weekend,
though isolated in anticipated coverage and late in the afternoon
or during the evening.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Friday...Weakening mid level ridge center will be to our
north on Monday and the surface pattern will favor a light onshore
flow. On these matters models agree pretty well. How strong of a
vort max slides under the southern edge of the upper ridge is not.
GFS has trended towards the stronger solutions so this feature may
be able to boost ascent over the low level moist flow for at least
chance POPS to be warranted. Upper weakness remains along the coast
Tuesday though it may shift eastward slightly. Wednesday and
Thursday brings a broad and deepening trough into New England that
will cause a drying NW flow locally. Temperatures will show very
little variation through the period and tend to average just a few
degrees above climatology.
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 12Z...No significant weather expected and VFR is likely to
continue at all terminals through the next 24 hours. The only chance
of sub VFR will be when patchy fog develops early Saturday morning.
Light and variable winds will become E as the morning progresses,
then SE. Sct-bkn stratocumulus inov 5-6k early will become generally
sct by late morning/early afternoon.
Winds become light/variable to calm this evening. After 08Z have
added tempo groups to fog prone terminals KCRE/KLBT to indicate the
increased potential of fog. Confidence of occurrence is moderate, but
confidence is low as to timing and actual vsby reductions.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Potential for sub VFR due to areas of haze or fog
early each morning and with isolated convection on Monday and
Tuesday. Otherwise VFR.
-- Changed Discussion --NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM Friday...Large but weak high pressure extending down
the coast will be the dominant feature today, maintaining light E/NE
winds through this aftn before shifting slowly to the SE tonight.
Speeds will be 10 kts or less throughout. These light winds will
allow several wave groups to show up in the wave spectrum, and a 7-8
sec SE swell will remain the dominant wave group in seas of 2-3 ft
today and tonight.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Friday...Opportunity abounds this weekend as marine
conditions remain welcoming. Light and variable winds early Saturday
will become SE 10 KT or less. High pressure building slightly in
from the north will produce NE-E winds 10 KT Sunday. With low wind
energy overall, longer period waves of 9 and 11 seconds should be
seen. Very late in the period Sunday night we may see wave heights
increase due to swell waves. A few showers will dot the waters
LONG TERM/MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Friday...A very light wind expected both days with a
poorly defined pressure pattern just barely strong enough to keep
an E flow direction pronounced. The exception will be where wind
locally turns coast-perpendicular and accelerates a few knots as
the seabreeze develops each afternoon. The shorter wind chop will
thus be minimal but there will be a well defined swell component
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