Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 232225 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 626 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the southeast tonight will be pushed south a dry cold front Monday afternoon. High pressure building in from Canada will bring cool conditions to the region for the middle of the week. Temperatures will warm late in the week as the center of the high moves offshore. Thursday night and Friday a weak cold front slowly approaching from the west will bring a slight chance of showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Sunday...Low amplitude aloft and very dry surface airmass to continue to keep skies crystal clear. Light winds will back from NW to W and then SW as the center of high pressure sinks to our south. Lows not as chilly as last night with most places in the upper 40s save for some low 50s possible along the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Sunday...Monday afternoon temps shoot up to within a few degrees of 80 in warm advection ahead of the next cool front. This boundary moves through in the late afternoon and evening but it will be running into this bone-dry airmass so no precip. This next high does not build in as aggressively as the chilly weekend airmass did. Tuesday and Tuesday night will thus not be as cold or breezy like Saturday was. Highs should hit the low 70s and lows in the mid to upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Sunday...Surface high building in from the north Wed shifts off the coast Thu as cold front approaches from the west. Front is pushed east by shortwave crossing the Great Lakes Thu into Fri. Aloft weak shortwave ridge overhead Wed flattens Thu as weak troughing associated with the aforementioned Great Lakes shortwave moves east. Moisture return ahead of the front is limited, as are the dynamics and both the GFS and ECMWF solutions offer limited precip chances. Best rainfall chances will be Thu night and Fri but hard to imagine anything more than slight chc pop at this point. Front is slow to exit the area, in part due to the weakness of the 5h trough, and the surface high building in behind the front lacks cold air. Temperatures climb from a little below climo Wed to above climo Thu due to development of return flow. Temps stay above climo through the period, peaking ahead of the cold front on Fri. Downslope flow helps keep temps above climo Sat/Sun and, combined with abundant sunshine, pushes highs into the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 00Z...High pressure centered to our southwest will continue to dominate the weather with nearly clear skies. Winds will decouple tonight, however little or no fog is expected. Due to the orientation of the high pressure, expect westerly winds through most of the forecast period, possibly becoming southerly along the coast with the resultant by late afternoon. Extended Outlook...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Sunday...Despite the weakening pressure gradient and slackening winds over land the marine winds may stay rather active overnight. The decrease in low level jetting that occurred this afternoon is progged to reverse course overnight, though the highest speeds remain along the NC/VA border. Even so, northern zones especially will see 20kt at 925mb much of the night. Given the cool temps and warmer SSTs gusts of those speeds may reach the surface. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Sunday...Prefrontal WSW winds to shift to NW late Monday afternoon and evening. There is no strong push of cool air/high pressure behind this boundary, in contrast to the weekend FROPA. Conditions will not need any advisory or headlines. Further veering to NE is then slated for Tuesday as the high progresses eastward, while remaining well to our north. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 3 PM Sunday...Weakening northeast flow on Wed veers to southeast Thu as the surface ridge axis shifts offshore. Approach of weak cold front Thu night and Fri leads to a period of south to southwest flow but gradient remains weak with speeds staying around 10 kt. Front pushes off the coast late in the period with offshore flow setting up Fri night. Lack of cold advection/pinched gradient will keep speeds under 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft Wed drop to around 2 ft Thu and Fri. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...43 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.