Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KILM 232225
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
626 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016
High pressure over the southeast tonight will be pushed south a
dry cold front Monday afternoon. High pressure building in from
Canada will bring cool conditions to the region for the middle of
the week. Temperatures will warm late in the week as the center of
the high moves offshore. Thursday night and Friday a weak cold
front slowly approaching from the west will bring a slight chance
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Low amplitude aloft and very dry surface
airmass to continue to keep skies crystal clear. Light winds will
back from NW to W and then SW as the center of high pressure sinks
to our south. Lows not as chilly as last night with most places in
the upper 40s save for some low 50s possible along the immediate
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Monday afternoon temps shoot up to within a few
degrees of 80 in warm advection ahead of the next cool front. This
boundary moves through in the late afternoon and evening but it will
be running into this bone-dry airmass so no precip. This next high
does not build in as aggressively as the chilly weekend airmass did.
Tuesday and Tuesday night will thus not be as cold or breezy like
Saturday was. Highs should hit the low 70s and lows in the mid to
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Surface high building in from the north Wed
shifts off the coast Thu as cold front approaches from the west.
Front is pushed east by shortwave crossing the Great Lakes Thu into
Fri. Aloft weak shortwave ridge overhead Wed flattens Thu as weak
troughing associated with the aforementioned Great Lakes shortwave
moves east. Moisture return ahead of the front is limited, as are
the dynamics and both the GFS and ECMWF solutions offer limited
precip chances. Best rainfall chances will be Thu night and Fri but
hard to imagine anything more than slight chc pop at this point.
Front is slow to exit the area, in part due to the weakness of the
5h trough, and the surface high building in behind the front lacks
cold air. Temperatures climb from a little below climo Wed to above
climo Thu due to development of return flow. Temps stay above climo
through the period, peaking ahead of the cold front on Fri.
Downslope flow helps keep temps above climo Sat/Sun and, combined
with abundant sunshine, pushes highs into the low to mid 70s.
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 00Z...High pressure centered to our southwest will continue to
dominate the weather with nearly clear skies. Winds will decouple
tonight, however little or no fog is expected. Due to the
orientation of the high pressure, expect westerly winds through most
of the forecast period, possibly becoming southerly along the coast
with the resultant by late afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Despite the weakening pressure gradient and
slackening winds over land the marine winds may stay rather active
overnight. The decrease in low level jetting that occurred this
afternoon is progged to reverse course overnight, though the highest
speeds remain along the NC/VA border. Even so, northern zones
especially will see 20kt at 925mb much of the night. Given the cool
temps and warmer SSTs gusts of those speeds may reach the surface.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Prefrontal WSW winds to shift to NW late Monday
afternoon and evening. There is no strong push of cool air/high
pressure behind this boundary, in contrast to the weekend FROPA.
Conditions will not need any advisory or headlines. Further veering
to NE is then slated for Tuesday as the high progresses eastward,
while remaining well to our north.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Weakening northeast flow on Wed veers to
southeast Thu as the surface ridge axis shifts offshore. Approach
of weak cold front Thu night and Fri leads to a period of south to
southwest flow but gradient remains weak with speeds staying
around 10 kt. Front pushes off the coast late in the period with
offshore flow setting up Fri night. Lack of cold advection/pinched
gradient will keep speeds under 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft Wed drop to
around 2 ft Thu and Fri.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107.