Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 242343 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 743 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will control the weather through most of the period with temperatures mostly above seasonal averages. There will be a risk for mainly afternoon showers and possibly thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday ahead of a cold front on Wednesday and then on Friday in association with a warm front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 PM Friday...Surface winds have turned southerly today, allowing a modest warm-advective regime to set up. Temperatures have risen just up above normal with most places seeing a degree or two either side of 70. As expected, some afternoon cu has formed with some low layer moisture advection off of the ocean. However, with no triggers and an otherwise dry column expect another day of no rain. For tonight a light southerly flow will continue with high pressure settling in over the western Atlantic. Lows will be right around 50 for most locations. Saturday may dawn with some stratus and patchy fog in place. Increasing mositure advection and afternoon heating will likely make for a more extensive cu field even as the stratus breaks up. In addition, a cirrus shield will gradually thicken as an upper trough deepens over the mississippi river valley. Temperatures in the mid 70s will otherwise make for a pleasant day as the warm southerly flow continues. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Friday...The latter part of the weekend into early next week will feature a slowly evolving pattern as mid level high pressure hangs on to the southeast and low pressure wobbles through the Mississippi Valley. Surface high pressure will be weakening slowly as the mid level low has an attendant front or more like a trough moving across the southeast with a weakening band of showers and possibly thunder. I did maintain the low chance pops for Sunday although I wouldn`t be surprised to see the activity remain to the west with the waning forcing and persistence of high pressure. Highs should be well into the 70s Sunday despite a lot of cloud cover with lows both Sunday and Monday well into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 324 AM Friday...A very mild week on tap with a series of southern stream short- waves providing a chance of rain Monday into Tuesday and again late in the week. Maximums this week each day will range from the middle 70s to lower 80s, and generally warmer inland away from the cooling effects of the ocean as a robust sea breeze looks in the making each afternoon. Cross sectional analysis and instability parameters suggest a slight chance of a TSTM late Monday through Tuesday. Low level and moist southerly wind flow will prevail this period, with a brief and weak back-door frontal intrusion early Thursday will little consequence except to lighten winds for a small time before another southern stream system approaches, followed by a rain potential on Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 00Z...VFR is expected at all the terminals, although a period of MVFR BR is possible 09-12z at KLBT and there may also be brief BR at KFLO overnight. For KILM, KMYR and KCRE, marine stratocumulus, 3-5 kft should advect onshore tonight, but perhaps not enough to include a ceiling. Any residual cumulus for KFLO and KLBT will quickly dissipate early this eve. Increasing low-level moisture may lead to some MVFR BR at KLBT and KFLO around sunrise. Then on Sat, we expect scattered to broken cumulus and stratocumulus, 3500 to 5000 ft, to develop for the inland terminals while more or less persisting for the coastal terminals. There will be a tendency for the lower clouds to erode in the wake of the stabilizing seabreeze, especially at KCRE and KMYR mid and late afternoon. Can not rule out a spot shower as was the case this afternoon, but too remote a possibility to be included in any TAF. Extended outlook...Flight category restrictions are possible in stratus/fog during the early morning hours Sun and in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sun through Tue.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 PM Friday...A light southerly flow of right around 10 kts will continue through the near term as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. Seas will remain in their present 2 to 3 ft range through the period. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Friday...Essentially a summer like pattern across the coastal waters through the period. High pressure well offshore will dictate conditions and this should yield a southeast flow around ten knots. There could be some acceleration in the vicinity of the sea breeze per usual. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 324 AM Friday...Summer like pattern continues as S-SW winds prevail 10-15 KT. A SE swell will keep seas slightly elevated, but dominant periods of around 10 seconds will not make wave particularly steep. Late Tuesday into early Wednesday a few TSTMS can be expected as a low pressure system passes north of the area. Wednesday may see a few storms linger over the Gulf Stream waters.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...RJD

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