Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 232340 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 640 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MILD COASTAL FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND AHEAD OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLEARING IS EXPECTED CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 600 PM TUESDAY...SFC COASTAL FRONT/TROF NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE ILM CWA COASTLINE ATTM...AND IS LOCATED AT ROUGHLY 25 TO 40 NM OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES. THE NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE IE. WEAK WEDGE...CONTINUES TO EXTEND NE-SW ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO WANT TO BREAK DOWN THIS WEDGY DOWN TONIGHT...WITH THE NAM CONTINUING TO BE THE FASTEST OUT OF THE AVBL MODELS. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING...IN THAT A SLOWER BREAK DOWN OF THIS WEDGE CAN BE EXPECTED. EXPECT A SLIGHT ONSHORE AND/OR INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE COASTAL TROF PRIOR TO IT WASHING OUT. SYNOPTIC SE-S FLOW SHOULD OVERTAKE THE ILM CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED HOURS. OVERRUNNING TYPE RAINS TO CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS BEING ADVERTISED. WILL CONTINUE THE BLANKET DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING...AND MAKE THE NECESSARY CALL AT THE NEXT UPDATE TO POSSIBLY EXTEND IT DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED HOURS. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR TONIGHTS LOWS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................... AS OF 333 PM TUESDAY...THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND ITS RAIN IS NOW REACHING THE FORECAST AREA AND MOVING OVER A VERY SHALLOW AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THE LOW CEILINGS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS STILL ARE ONGOING OVER THE REGION AS THE COLD AIR DAMMING IS STILL IN PLACE. WITH VISIBILITIES STILL LOW...WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE RAIN AND THE COASTAL FRONT MOVE ONSHORE AND SCOURS OUT THE COOL MOIST AIR. THE 12 UTC NAM SHOWS THE COASTAL FRONT JUMPING TO THE COAST AROUND 06 UTC THIS MAY STILL BE A BIT QUICK. MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS THAT WE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE AREA COULD SEE UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN BY 12 UTC. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S AT THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND NEAR 60 AT THE COAST BY MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 333 PM TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE THIS PERIOD REMAINS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO KICK-OFF WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHOT AT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WITH SHARP COLUMN DRYING INTO DAYBREAK THU. TSTMS DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY ARE APT TO BE HINDERED BY AN OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...AND POTENTIALLY PRE-EXISTING RAIN-COOLED AIR. HEIGHT FALLS HOWEVER MORE IN EARNEST WILL COMMENCE WEDNESDAY EVENING DIRECTLY AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. 21Z-05Z/4PM-MIDNIGHT REPRESENTS THE BEST WINDOW FOR POTENTIALLY A SQUALLY LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS MOVING FROM SW TO NE RESPECTIVELY. QPF ASSESSMENT AND BEST GUESS POINTS TO 1-2 INCHES STORM TOTAL RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH CLEARING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ATYPICAL TEMP CURVES EXPECTED...AS TEMPERATURE RISE RISE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH LATE DAY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AT DAYBREAK CHRISTMAS WILL ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES...FOLLOWED BY MORE TYPICAL NIGHT TIME MINIMUMS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDE SPREAD 30S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 333 PM TUESDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE STRONG RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. OUR CWA WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE AXIS MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO NEAR BERMUDA BY SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER SUNDAY. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ATTENDANT WITH THIS FRONT. AFTER A FEW DAYS OF SUNSHINE...ITS SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. I CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE POPS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY WHEN THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. FORCING WILL BE COMPRISED OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND EMBEDDED JET STREAKS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE BEST PERIOD OF FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SO THE MORE BROAD APPROACH WORKS BEST FOR NOW. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS A RELATIVELY WARM COUPLE OF DAYS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NUMBERS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE RETURN OF MOISTURE AND THE RETURN OF A VERY WEAK WEDGE EQUALS MUCH COOLER READINGS WITH HIGHS AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AND LOWS ABOVE AS THE DIURNAL RANGES BECOME MUTED WITH THE MOISTURE. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CREATE IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO LOW CIGS...FOG...AND RAINFALL. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ALONG WITH LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE IFR/LIFR TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTHWARD. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE OVERNIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. INTO WEDNESDAY...COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL VARY BETWEEN ISOLATED AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GENERALLY SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRECIP LINGERING NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING TO THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN RETURNING SUNDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 610 PM TUESDAY...AT THE MOMENT...THE COASTAL FRONT/TROF LIES 25 TO 40 NM OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW THIS FRONT MAKING IT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED HOURS...WITH THE NAM THE QUICKEST MODEL. AS THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME SE-S ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KT+ SPEEDS. DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL PLAGUE MARINE TRAFFIC THRUOUT THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ATTM...SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE HOLDING AT 2 TO 3 FT. AS INCREASING SYNOPTIC SE-S FLOW EXPANDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT... SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 5 TO 6 SECONDS. PREVIOUS THINKING.................................................. AS OF 333 PM TUESDAY...THE COASTAL FRONT IS WAVERING NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS AND IS JUST EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. ONCE THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES INLAND MOST LIKELY THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY...THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WATER...SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN ISSUE AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE REISSUED LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 333 PM TUESDAY...ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SETTLE AND THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY IN MODERATE WNW WIND. SEAS HEIGHTS TO PEAK AROUND MIDNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 4-8 FEET AND HIGHEST OUTER PORTION WHERE MILDER SSTS ARE LIKELY TO PROMOTE BETTER MIXING FROM STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSS THE 0-20 NM WATERS. THE LARGEST WAVES WILL BE TIED TO THE STRONG S WIND-WAVES WED/WED NIGHT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 333 PM TUESDAY...VERY LIGHT WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL DIRECTION CHANGES. INITIALLY A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...A WEAK WEDGE FRONT SHIFTS WINDS YET AGAIN TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY. ALL SPEEDS SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW TEN KNOTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY WHEN A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS DEVELOPS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE REFLECTIVE OF THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS WITH GENERALLY 1-3 FEET TROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-053>056. NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...DCH/DRH SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL

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