Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KILM 251943
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
343 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016
Canadian high pressure will build over the area through Thursday.
A cold front will cross the area early Friday. Above normal
temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week before
a second cold front moves across the area on Monday. Little to no
rainfall is forecast through the forecast period.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Northerly winds will continue to bring cool
and dry air into the area as canadian high pressure builds south
through this afternoon. Temps will remain below 70 most places
under bright October sunshine. Dewpoint temps will continue to
fall down through the 40s and just below across some spots inland.
High pressure will settle down over the Carolinas. This will
allow winds to steadily diminish through this evening and become
near calm heading into the overnight hours. The calm winds in
combination with very dry air mass with clear skies will lead to
cool overnight temps. Temps will drop off rapidly after sunset as
atmosphere decouples reaching down below 50 most places shortly
after midnight and getting down below 45 many places inland.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...High pressure will migrate off the Mid
Atlantic coast Wed into Thurs leaving the Carolinas on the
southern periphery, in an on shore flow through most of Wed into
early Thurs. The winds will be veering around from NE to E through
Wed and then SE to S through Thurs as a cold front approaches from
the NW. This will increase sfc dewpoints a good 15 degrees through
the period. GFS shows shortwave tracking through by late Thurs
with greatest chc of pcp at that time. Have included low end pops
mainly NW portions of CWA but overall expect increasing clouds
through Thurs with limited if any pcp through Thurs night. The
very dry mid levels may moisten up enough to produce some iso
shwrs late Thurs into early Fri.
Temps will be climbing back toward normal after a cool start Wed
morning. Overall expect a warming trend as decent return flow
sets up through the low levels with increasing temps and dewpoint
temps. Temps near 70 Wed will be well into the 70s by Thurs. Overnight
lows Thurs night will be well above normal as clouds and increased
moisture will keep readings in the 50s to near 60. The actual sfc
feature may move through just after this period with mainly a drop
in dewpoint temps.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Relatively flat mid-level flow will allow
features to move rapidly across the country through the extended
before amplification occurs in response to a building ridge late in
the period. A cold front will cross the area Friday morning, but
with little fanfare, noted only by a wind shift to the NW and
slightly increased cloud cover. Little to no temperature difference
is forecast behind this boundary, and temperatures Friday and through
the wknd will likely average 5-10 degrees above climo, although good
radiational cooling Friday night will permit mins to drop to near
seasonable levels around 50. The fast flow aloft allows high
pressure overhead Saturday to push offshore early next week before a
second cold front drops across the Carolinas late on Monday. This
front is also expected to be dry with best dynamics well north of
the area, so Halloween festivities should be warm and dry, with just
slightly cooler weather forecast behind the boundary.
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 18Z...VFR this TAF cycle. N to NE winds 5 to 10 kt this
afternoon should become calm after sunset and NE to E at 5 to 10 KT
Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers and their attendant
TEMPO MVFR conditions possible Thursday afternoon and evening.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Cool and dry Canadian high pressure will
settle over the waters through tonight. Northerly winds will
remain 10 to 15 kts with some higher gusts. Seas up to 3 to 5 ft
will continue to subside remaining between 2 to 4 ft most waters
overnight. The cool air flowing over the warmer waters overnight
will keep a well mixed marine layer and some higher gusts
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...High pressure will shift off the Mid
Atlantic coast Wed into Thurs before a cold front approaches late
Thurs into Fri. This will push winds around from the NE to the E
through Wed and SE to S through Thurs. Overall expect winds to
remain between 10 and 15 kt and seas subsiding Wed into Thurs with
a slight rise Thurs night...generally 2 to 3 ft.
LONG TERM/FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...A dry cold front will cross the waters Friday
aftn, accompanied by a wind shift from W/SW around 10 kts to NW and
then NW by Saturday morning, at around 5 kts. High pressure then
builds across the waters Saturday before pushing offshore Sunday.
This allows winds to become SW once again by Saturday night at 10-15
kts, persisting here on Sunday. Seas will be around 2-3 ft through
the period, with variable wave groups on Friday, featuring a more
predominant SE swell and SW wind wave late Saturday and Sunday.