Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251943 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 343 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will build over the area through Thursday. A cold front will cross the area early Friday. Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week before a second cold front moves across the area on Monday. Little to no rainfall is forecast through the forecast period. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Northerly winds will continue to bring cool and dry air into the area as canadian high pressure builds south through this afternoon. Temps will remain below 70 most places under bright October sunshine. Dewpoint temps will continue to fall down through the 40s and just below across some spots inland. High pressure will settle down over the Carolinas. This will allow winds to steadily diminish through this evening and become near calm heading into the overnight hours. The calm winds in combination with very dry air mass with clear skies will lead to cool overnight temps. Temps will drop off rapidly after sunset as atmosphere decouples reaching down below 50 most places shortly after midnight and getting down below 45 many places inland. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...High pressure will migrate off the Mid Atlantic coast Wed into Thurs leaving the Carolinas on the southern periphery, in an on shore flow through most of Wed into early Thurs. The winds will be veering around from NE to E through Wed and then SE to S through Thurs as a cold front approaches from the NW. This will increase sfc dewpoints a good 15 degrees through the period. GFS shows shortwave tracking through by late Thurs with greatest chc of pcp at that time. Have included low end pops mainly NW portions of CWA but overall expect increasing clouds through Thurs with limited if any pcp through Thurs night. The very dry mid levels may moisten up enough to produce some iso shwrs late Thurs into early Fri. Temps will be climbing back toward normal after a cool start Wed morning. Overall expect a warming trend as decent return flow sets up through the low levels with increasing temps and dewpoint temps. Temps near 70 Wed will be well into the 70s by Thurs. Overnight lows Thurs night will be well above normal as clouds and increased moisture will keep readings in the 50s to near 60. The actual sfc feature may move through just after this period with mainly a drop in dewpoint temps. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Relatively flat mid-level flow will allow features to move rapidly across the country through the extended before amplification occurs in response to a building ridge late in the period. A cold front will cross the area Friday morning, but with little fanfare, noted only by a wind shift to the NW and slightly increased cloud cover. Little to no temperature difference is forecast behind this boundary, and temperatures Friday and through the wknd will likely average 5-10 degrees above climo, although good radiational cooling Friday night will permit mins to drop to near seasonable levels around 50. The fast flow aloft allows high pressure overhead Saturday to push offshore early next week before a second cold front drops across the Carolinas late on Monday. This front is also expected to be dry with best dynamics well north of the area, so Halloween festivities should be warm and dry, with just slightly cooler weather forecast behind the boundary. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 18Z...VFR this TAF cycle. N to NE winds 5 to 10 kt this afternoon should become calm after sunset and NE to E at 5 to 10 KT after sunrise. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers and their attendant TEMPO MVFR conditions possible Thursday afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Cool and dry Canadian high pressure will settle over the waters through tonight. Northerly winds will remain 10 to 15 kts with some higher gusts. Seas up to 3 to 5 ft will continue to subside remaining between 2 to 4 ft most waters overnight. The cool air flowing over the warmer waters overnight will keep a well mixed marine layer and some higher gusts overnight. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...High pressure will shift off the Mid Atlantic coast Wed into Thurs before a cold front approaches late Thurs into Fri. This will push winds around from the NE to the E through Wed and SE to S through Thurs. Overall expect winds to remain between 10 and 15 kt and seas subsiding Wed into Thurs with a slight rise Thurs night...generally 2 to 3 ft. LONG TERM/FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...A dry cold front will cross the waters Friday aftn, accompanied by a wind shift from W/SW around 10 kts to NW and then NW by Saturday morning, at around 5 kts. High pressure then builds across the waters Saturday before pushing offshore Sunday. This allows winds to become SW once again by Saturday night at 10-15 kts, persisting here on Sunday. Seas will be around 2-3 ft through the period, with variable wave groups on Friday, featuring a more predominant SE swell and SW wind wave late Saturday and Sunday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...RAN MARINE...JDW/RGZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.