Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 011439 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1039 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...STRATUS DECK OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING HAS BEEN SO FAR SLOW TO BREAK UP. CLOUD COVER IS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS INVERSION SHOULD BREAK UP WHEN TEMPS REACH 82-84 F...ROUGHLY BY NOON. ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS DRY AIR ALOFT WILL START MIXING DOWN...QUICKLY ERODING THE CLOUD DECK. THIS WILL LEAVE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...FILTERED THROUGH CIRRUS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE IN THE 400-200MB LAYER STREAMS OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP...THOUGH GIVEN THE SLOW START TO WARMING ITS ONSET WILL BE DELAYED...WITH BROKEN CU FIELD FORMING ALONG IT. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. AN ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND VERY LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT...UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT...WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED. HAVE MAINTAINED INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POP WITH HIGHEST VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE. MORNING CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING TEMPS AT BAY RIGHT NOW BUT CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW RAPID RECOVERY. STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL FLOW LOOKS PRETTY ZONAL ON THURSDAY THOUGH A HEALTHY-FOR-JULY SHORTWAVE DOES SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH. MOST PLACES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S BEFORE A SCATTERING OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS. ON FRIDAY THERE IS A SMALL BACKING IN THE MID LEVELS TO WSW THOUGH THE OVERALL 1000-500 MB RH FIELDS IN BOTH THE GFS AND WRF GO DOWN SLIGHTLY. SIMILARLY THERE IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT IN HOW FAR SOUTH A FRONT SAGS. THE WRF GETS THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS IT FURTHER NORTH AND ALLOWS A VERY HEALTHY PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE BUT SHOW HIGHER VALUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES IN DEFERENCE TO THE WRF. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF THURSDAY UNLESS STORMS FIRE UP OVER NORTHERN ZONES EARLY ENOUGH TO DISRUPT THE DIURNAL CURVE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO STAY STALLED CLOSE TO THE NC/VA BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS PAIRED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY PIEDMONT TROUGH AND WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH SUBTLY CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR NORMAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON, IF NOT A BIT MORE. ALSO, INSTABILITY MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS SLOW THE DECOUPLING PROCESS AND THIS LINGERING INSTABILITY `BENEFITS` FROM THE OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE-INDUCED PVA FOR LIFT. MODELS HONING IN ON AN INTERESTING POSSIBILITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN THAT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY WEAKLY CUT OFF. TROUBLE IS THEY SEEM TO THINK THE POSSIBILITIES OF WHERE THIS OCCURS RANGE FROM GA TO PA. FAIR TO SAY THAT MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN AND RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY AT OR ABOVE THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 12Z...AN AREA OF IFR CIGS HAS EXPANDED THIS MORNING AND IS APPROACHING THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THESE CIGS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... WITH VFR LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. SW-W WINDS 5-10 KT EXPECTED TODAY...EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AROUND 15 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN FOR NOW TO THE MID 60S WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT. BEST CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED BUT WILL INDICATE VCSH AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR NOW. BY MID AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SHIFT INLAND TAKING THE SHOWER POTENTIAL WITH IT. IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEWPOINTS RECOVER INTO THE 70S AND A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...NOT ONLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS BUT AT THE INLAND TERMINALS AS WELL. STILL APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND WEST SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TODAY. GRADIENT REMAINS SLIGHTLY PINCHED DUE TO PRESENCE OF PIEDMONT TROUGH. SPEEDS WILL STAY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...PEAKING AROUND 20 KT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE DOMINANT WIND AND WAVE MAKER WILL BE THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH AND THUS WE EXPECT SWRLY FLOW AND AN AVERAGE 2-4 FT WAVE FORECAST. A FRONT MAY DROP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/VA BORDER ON FRIDAY THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS NOT SO CONVINCED AND INSTEAD SHOWS A PIEDMONT TROUGH BEING THE MORE DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE. IF SO THEN SWRLY FLOW COULD BE BOLSTERED EVEN TO THE POINT WHERE SOME FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED OVER MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHOULD THIS FEATURE NOT GROW AS STRONG THEN THE FLOW MAY NOT GROW MUCH STRONGER ON FRIDAY AND INSTEAD SLIGHTLY VEER IN RESPONSE TO THE SAGGING YET DECELERATING BOUNDARY. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRENGTH MAY BE MODULATED BY WHERE THE BOUNDARY REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM STALLS. IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE IT REMAINS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY ALSO WASH OUT OR WEAKEN WHEN COMPARED TO ITS POSSIBLE STRENGTH LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR

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