Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 220250 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 1050 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO REGION FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK HIGHER HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...NEAR-TERM UPDATE TO ADDRESS THE INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA. WEAK SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN OCCLUDING FRONT ACCORDING TO LATEST WPC ANALYSIS...AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOWERS HAVE RE-FIRED LOCALLY. 00Z KGSO SOUNDING HAS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY FROM ABOUT 950MB UP THROUGH 750MB...SO SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH AT LEAST WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL DRIVE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SHALLOW INSTABILITY WILL PREVENT LIGHTNING. HIGH RES HRRR AND NSSL WRF WERE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...AND HAVE LEANED ON THE HRRR HEAVILY FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE RAMPED POP UP TO CHC ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT BEST CHANCE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH ALONG THE STATE LINE AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD. ANY SHOWERS WILL ERODE LATE AS THEY HEAD EAST...AND THE DRY/COOL ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST. WINDS EARLY WILL BE VARIABLE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND A COOL SURGE DEVELOPS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RISE TO 10 TO 15 MPH LATE...WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE LOWS INTO THE UPR 50S NORTH...LOW 60S IN THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST REGION...COOLER DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN. GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO A RANGE OF 0.5 TO 1 INCHES. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL STAY TO THE NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND AROUND 80 ON SATURDAY. LOWS EACH NIGHT SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE AREA WILL SEE A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW...A RETURN TO HIGHER HUMIDITIES...AND A WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES. ALOFT A RIDGE STUBBORNLY HOLDS ON THROUGH ALMOST THURSDAY SO THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO AROUND 90 BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN AT THOSE LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED EARLY THIS EVENING S OF KMYR TO JUST S-SW OF KFLO. LINGERING MVFR LEVEL LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING NEAR KILM WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A MVFR CIG THROUGH 03Z. OTHERWISE VFR LEVEL LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND AT KFLO. DESPITE GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND MOIST SOILS AT KLBT AND KILM NO FOG IS EXPECTED AS N WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOW LEVELS WELL MIXED. AFTER 12Z EXPECT VFR/CLEAR SKIES BELOW 12K AS N-NE WINDS PREVAIL. IN THE AFTERNOON SCT CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT NE-E. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT TO CLEAR THE AREA TO THE SOUTH. WINDS HAVE RECENTLY TURNED TO THE NORTH AT 41013...AND THIS WILL BE THE TREND ACROSS THE SC WATERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A NORTHERLY SURGE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY UP TO AROUND 20 KTS OVERNIGHT. LATEST MME GUIDANCE SHOWS 25 KTS AT 41013...BUT ONLY 15 KTS AT JMPN7. FOR THIS REASON HAVE PAINTED AN AVERAGE OF 20 KTS ACROSS THE WATERS...AND KEPT SEAS AT 3-5 FT...JUST BELOW SCEC CRITERIA. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION HOWEVER...THAT A SCEC MAY BE NEEDED LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY THE OF END FRIDAY AND REMAIN AT THESE SPEEDS. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE DAY FROM THE NORTH AND WILL VEER TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY. SEA HEIGHTS WILL START OUT AT 2 TO 4 FEET EARLY FRIDAY AND WILL SETTLE OUT AT 2 TO 3 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RULE THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS BY TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2 TO 3 FEET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...DRH AVIATION...MRR

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