Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 081816 RRA AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 215 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HOT TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...LIMITED CU BUILDUP WITH LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT OVERALL. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER GEORGETOWN COUNTY AND SEA BREEZE VISIBLE ON RADAR. EXPECT SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE AND A COUPLE OF SHOWERS POPPING UP...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BETWEEN MORE PRONOUNCED PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND BERMUDA HIGH OFF SHORE. PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE SHOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA MAINLY RAIN FREE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SILENT POPSN FOR THE MOST PART. WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 90S MOST PLACES. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS...BUT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER LEAVING APPARENT TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 70S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...VARIOUS WX MODELS INCLUDING FOREIGN MODELS HAVE ARRIVED TO A CONSENSUS EXHIBITING AMPLIFIED UPPER LONGWAVE TROFFING TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE UNITED STATES...WHICH INCLUDES THE ILM CWA. UPPER TROFFING FROM THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX IS PROGGED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD AFFECTING AGAIN THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE UNITED STATES SOUTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. THE ACTUAL NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ILM CWA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS INDICATE PERSISTENT PIEDMONT TROFFING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY...THAT GETS MORE OR LESS ABSORBED BY A COOL OR COLD FRONT DROPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THU. LOOK FOR FORCING FROM THE PIEDMONT TROF/COLD FRONT FOR INLAND CONVECTION WED AFTN/EVENING...WITH SEA BREEZE INDUCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE COAST. BASICALLY LOOKING AT 20-40 POPS FOR WED...HIGHEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FOR THU THRU THU NIGHT...THE SFC COLD FRONT SNAKES A BIT FURTHER SE...WITH THE MODELS INDICATING IT STALLING ORIENTED NE-SW ACROSS THE ILM CWA LATE THU AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. THE HIGHEST POPS OF THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL OCCUR FROM MID-DAY THU THRU MUCH OF THU NITE. PLENTY OF AVBL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL FORCING FROM THE VARIOUS SFC FEATURES...ALONG WITH ANY MID-LEVEL FORCING FROM A S/W TROF OR VORT MOVING OVERHEAD WITHIN THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROF. WILL EXHIBIT GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. AS FOR TEMPS...WED TO BE THE HOTTEST OF THE 2 DAYS...WITH APPARENT TEMPS IE. HEAT INDICES...DURING WED AFTN COMING CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 70S FOR MORNING LOWS...WITH MINS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST POSSIBLY EITHER NOT DROPPING BELOW 80 OR REMAINING BELOW 80 DEGREES FOR ONLY A HANDFUL OF HOURS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE LONGWAVE UPPER AMPLIFIED TROFFING PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE U.S. WILL WEAKEN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN IDENTIFIABLE UPPER TROF AXIS ACROSS OR JUST WEST OF THE ILM CWA. THIS WILL PREVENT ANY TROPICAL AIR MASS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FROM REACHING THE ILM CWA. BASICALLY LOOKING AT A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS...WITH OCCASIONAL LOW LEVEL SE THRU SW FLOW ABLE TO INPUT SOME TROPICAL ATLANTIC OR GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE ACROSS THE ILM CWA. DYNAMICS FROM SFC FEATURES IN THE FORM OF A STALLED AND SLOWLY DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FA...THE DAILY SEA BREEZE...AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NW-N ON MONDAY...WILL ALL COMBINE TO KEEP A BETTER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. ANY S/W TROFS MOVING WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS THE FA. THE CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS...ESPECIALLY DAILY HIGHS...BELOW THE CLIMO NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 18Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE ONLY SCATTERED CUMULUS...MOST NOTICEABLE ALONG THE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE SOUTH OF KILM. WINDS HAVE BEEN MORE WESTERLY AND LIGHTER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT WIND DIRECTIONS HAVE SHOWN A TENDANCY TO BACK TO THE SSW-SW AT KCRE OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE WINDS FROM THE SW-W THIS AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT...AND SSW-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. HIGHEST WINDS SPEEDS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WHEN PEAK HEATING OCCURS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LIGHTEST. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-12 KTS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WSW AFTER SUNRISE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD ALSO RE-FIRE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CHANCE SHRA/TS/TEMPO MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BEST COVERAGE OF SHRA/TS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...PRECAUTIONARY HEADLINE IN FORECAST FOR LOCAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. SW WINDS 15 KTS TO 20 KTS WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FT. WNA SHOWS PEAK OF WINDS AND SEAS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...THE PIEDMONT TROF/APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE CENTER OF 1025+ MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE AND EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...WILL PRODUCE A TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE ILM COASTAL WATERS THRU-OUT THIS TIME PERIOD. MODELS ILLUSTRATE THE LOCAL WATERS TO OBSERVE SSW-SW WINDS AT 10-20 KT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH WIND SPEEDS FLIRTING WITH 25 KT ON WED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK ON WED...THEN EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SUBSIDE SOME DURING THU. THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL MAINLY BE COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 5 TO 6 SECOND SHORT PERIODS. WAVEWATCH3 DOES IDENTIFY A WEAK EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS. THE HEIGHT OF THIS GROUND SWELL MAY BECOME THE DETERMINING FACTOR OF WHETHER TO UTILIZE THE SCEC OR AN ISSUANCE OF A SCA FOR PARTIAL OR THE ENTIRE ILM COASTAL WATERS. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED SW-NE ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TO REMAIN IN THIS POSITION FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD. THE AREA WATERS WILL SEE A SSE-SW WIND DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE RELAXED ALLOWING DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS. THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL ALSO OBSERVE A SUBSIDING TREND THIS PERIOD. THIS DUE TO THE MAIN INPUT TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS...THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES...ALSO ILLUSTRATING A DECREASING TREND. ANY THREAT FROM SCEC CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...MRR

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