Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281427 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1027 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Depression Two will bring increasing rain chances through Tuesday. Some drier air may then filter in by Wednesday and the increased sunshine will yield warmer afternoons. A cold front may approach by Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 AM Saturday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion from earlier this morning follows: A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Little River Inlet to the South Santee River. The topical depression still looks very unorganized from a satellite perspective. There is yet no evidence of convection wrapping around the center. The cluster of coldest cloud tops are well out ahead of the center. The depression will be moving across the warm waters of the Gulf Stream today and during this trek...some organization could lead to at least modest strengthening. Regardless of whether the tropical depression strengthens into TS Bonnie or not...we are looking for precipitable water values to surge to 1.75 to 2 inches...highest tonight as the depth of moisture increases. Small showers were already splattered about this morning. The high resolution models are showing more organized and widespread convection moving onto the coast this afternoon and spreading inland through tonight. Will show pops ramping up to likely/categorical during this time. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be capable of heavy downpours, causing localized PONDING. The depression or weak tropical storm should be approaching the South Carolina coast overnight...perhaps near the Charleston area. The strongest winds will be mainly near the center. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 600 AM Saturday...A slow moving weak tropical storm should be moving onto the South Carolina coast Sunday. However, the steering flow will be light and weakening. A broad upper level trough approaching the east coast should help to steer the tropical entity northward and this is indicated by the official NHC track forecast as well as model consensus. Thus, a weak tropical low may just crawl up along the upper South Carolina coast Sunday night and Monday and perhaps be located near Cape Fear Monday night. This will prolong the risk for significant rainfall and this will be the main threat with this system. At this time, we are forecasting rainfall amounts in the 1 to 3 inch range and the entire forecast area is expected to get a good soaking, although it certainly will not be raining the entire time. Significant ponding of water in low-lying locations is probable. At this time...the strongest onshore winds will occur along the immediate coast of Georgetown and Horry counties Sun afternoon and Sun night where weak tropical storm force winds are possible...at least in gusts. Wind speeds will be considerably lighter elsewhere. Clouds will dominate the sky through the period, but even with that, highs will still be up in the lower 80s. Lows will be in the mid 60s to near 70. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 AM Saturday...TD 2 likely still meandering just offshore on Tuesday. Not expecting much in the way of wind but rain chances still quite high. Hard to say how far inland though as the system may entrain dry air into its western semicircle. With the exit of this system by Wednesday cloud cover should decrease and we will see a warmer afternoon. An upper ridge will build but not so strong as to effectively cap convection according to most guidance. And with what may still be ample moisture lingering the low end chance POPs from previous forecast seems OK. Much of the same for Thursday with just a weak upper ridge and poorly defined surface pressure pattern. Expect a warm afternoon with isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms. Some more appreciable rain chances may develop on Friday as a fairly deep trough digs into the lower Mississippi valley and pushes a cold front into the western Carolinas. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 12Z...The tropical system off the Georgia coast will continue to track toward South Carolina. Northeast winds will become a bit more easterly this afternoon and gusty along the coast. The models continue to show a negatively tilted surface trough along the coast later today. Low LFCs just off the coast this morning will drift inland by late morning...with low based cu expected to develop. Tropical like showers are expected this afternoon...with intermittent low visibilities due to the water droplet size. Showers are expected to continue through the evening and overnight hours. Extended Outlook...Occasional MVFR conditions in scattered to numerous showers and isolated t-storms late Saturday night, shifting inland for Sunday. Occasional MVFR with scattered showers Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 AM Saturday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion from earlier this morning follows: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the South Carolina waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the North Carolina waters. NE to E winds will veer to SE tonight. Winds speeds will be increasing...strongest Sun/Sun night. Tropical storm force winds are possible across the South Carolina waters...especially in gusts near and shortly after daybreak Sun. Winds will be increasing further during Sun. Further north, wind speeds will increase to 15 to 20 kt through tonight. Seas will be building through the period...up to 4 to 6 ft. An ESE swell will be on the order of 8 to 9 seconds. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday...The strongest winds Sun and Sun night will be across the southern waters where weak tropical storm force winds will be possible. Wind speeds will be considerably lighter across the North Carolina waters. Wind speeds will be decreasing throughout Mon and Mon night. SE winds Sun will become more south Mon and then SW or W Mon night as a weak tropical low lifts northward across the waters. Highest seas Sun and Sun eve across the southern waters could reach 5 to 9 ft, but are not expected to exceed 5 TO 6 ft across the North Carolina waters. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM Saturday...Tuesday`s wind direction is hard to pin down with what`s left of TD2 just off the coast. Additionally there could be considerable wind direction change as the center moves by. The system itself will be very weak, further complicating wind direction forecast. On the bright side there will likely not be any advisory in effect. It bears mentioning though that there may still be tropical showers around that could significantly reduce visibility. With the system`s exit to the NE on Wednesday there will be a very weak gradient left behind. Winds again remain quite light and show considerable variation in direction through the day. Seas will be settling into the 2 to 4 ft range for the most part. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ053>056. NC...None. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ254-256. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...REK/RJD SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DL MARINE...REK/RJD/MBB

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