Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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069 FXUS62 KILM 042327 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 727 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A POTENT UPPER LOW WILL SWING SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED GUSTY SHOWERS. DRYING AND WARMING WILL FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND DISSIPATE OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A DRYING AND WARMING TREND LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 640 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST AND CUMULUS INLAND ARE DIMINISHING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE COVERING MOST OF OF SE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL COUNTIES ELSEWHERE PARTLY CLOUDY. HAVE RAISE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON AS HIGH TIDE SETS IN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 6.2 FEET. THE WATER SHOULD SUBSIDE TO BELOW CRITERIA BETWEEN 10 AND 11 PM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH LEVEL DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WAS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND ALIGNED JUST ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD AS SHALLOW MOISTURE COMBINES WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS COOL AIR POURS IN ALOFT. HAVE INCLUDED ISO SHWRS IN PORTIONS OF NC ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR WAS LOCATED. DEWPOINT TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 40S INLAND AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AS DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN FROM THE W-SW. WATER VAP IMAGERY SHOWS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH REACHING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CENTER REACHING THE CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK. THIS DEEP COLD CORE CUT OFF LOW WITH STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND CHC OF SHOWERS AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA BY DAYBREAK EVEN THOUGH QUITE A BIT OF DRYING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 50S INTO DAYBREAK AS COOLER AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...A POTENT COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THURS BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWERING AND COLD AND DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND THIS DEEP LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THEREFORE EXPECT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TO BE SHALLOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AS PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG COOLING ALOFT WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT AS TOO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE BOTH THURS AND FRI BUT AS THIS LOW DIGS SOUTH THERE WILL BE STRONG COOLING ALOFT PRODUCING STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EXPECT ANY MOISTURE TO BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND BUT COULD BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER. KEPT MENTION OF HAIL FOR THURS AFTN AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL LOWER FREEZING HEIGHTS AND WBZ TEMPS TO 5 TO 6K FT. OVERALL EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN WITH A COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE AND SOME GUSTY PASSING SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH AROUND 70 MOST PLACES BOTH DAYS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR 50 WITH SPOTS BELOW 50. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY AS THE COLD LOW LIFTS NORTH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW PLAGUING THE EAST COAST WILL FINALLY GET KICKED OUT TO THE EAST SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL DRAG A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY STALL AND WASH OUT TO OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE UP FROM THE GULF COAST. THEREAFTER...A MORE TYPICAL LATE SPRING PATTERN DEVELOPS AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT...EXPANDING THROUGH MID-WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING WITH THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES POSSIBLE. WILL MAINTAIN SILENT POP THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER AS FORCING LOOKS LIMITED EACH DAY. TEMPS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN COOL...SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO...BEFORE WARMING TO ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.&& .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 00Z...BACK EDGE OF CI DECK WILL MOVE OFF THE SE NC COAST EARLY THIS EVENING LEAVING ONLY SCT STRATOCU TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL YIELD GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY AND PRODUCE SCT-BKN CU AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAN`T RULE OUT A TSTM EITHER. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS DUE TO THE ABNORMALLY COLD AIR ALOFT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MOST OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF SOUTH CAROLINA WHILE CROSSING THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT W-NW ACROSS THE WATERS UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE. MAY SEE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT AND A FEW 5 FT WAVES IN EXTREME OUTER WATERS BUT OVERALL SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT MOST WATERS. .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 18Z...SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR HAS BUILT EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY...HOWEVER A THIN RIBBON OF BETTER MOISTURE STILL EXISTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AROUND WILMINGTON POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE ILM AIRPORT. LESSER CHANCES EXIST OF A POP-UP SHOWER NEAR THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY IN THE MYRTLE BEACH VICINITY. FARTHER INLAND ALTHOUGH WE HAVE PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THEY ARE LIMITED IN DEPTH AND POSE NO POTENTIAL FOR DEEP VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ASIDE FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE 6000-9000 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THIN RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE NEAR THE COAST COULD PRODUCE SHALLOW FOG PARTICULARLY NEAR THE WILMINGTON (ILM) AND NORTH MYRTLE BEACH (CRE) AIRPORTS. COLDER AIR WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY ON WNW WINDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCT MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS THURSDAY SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRONG W-NW OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS DEEP LOW DROPS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THEN LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE OFF SHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE WITH SOME 4 TO 5 FTERS THROUGH THURS INTO EARLY FRI. GUSTS TO 25 KT MAY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DURING PORTIONS OF THIS PERIOD EVEN THOUGH SEAS NEAR SHORE WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO SLOWLY BACK FROM NW EARLY SAT TO SW BY SUNDAY MORNING...AT 10-15 KTS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ON SUNDAY...AND LIKELY STALL AND DISSIPATE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED...A SUBTLE VEERING IN DIRECTION TO WEST IS FORECAST ALONG WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS...BEFORE SW WINDS REDEVELOP ON MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT SAT/SUN WITH A 2 FT 8-9 SEC SE WAVE AND 3 FT 4 SEC VEERING WIND WAVE COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. MORE UNIFORM SEAS AROUND 3 FT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS.&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...CRM

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