Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 292248 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 648 EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEK. A COASTAL FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...VAPOR ANIMATIONS SHOW THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH CRADLED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG THE VERY NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW OFF OF CAPE FEAR WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE ALLOWING BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE IN TO OUR N AND W. AS A RESULT AN OVERALL LIGHT NE-ENE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING SKIES. THIS PROVIDES A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP AND WITH WET GROUND IN SOME AREAS...PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG MAY CROP OUT IN SPOTS EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. MINIMUMS TONIGHT TO RUN 6-9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR JULY 30 BUT RECORD LOWS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CRACK AT SITES WITH EXTENSIVE HISTORICAL CLIMATE RECORDS. HERE ARE A FEW OF THE LOCAL RECORDS FOR JULY 30...ILM-61 LBT-67 FLO-63 MYR-69. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A FLATTENED 500 MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON WED...WHILE AT THE SURFACE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY FOR WED...ESPECIALLY ABOVE ABOUT 700 MB. AS THE TROUGH AXIS RETROGRADES A BIT ON THU...PWATS INCREASE IN THE AFTN HOURS WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE REMNANT FRONT/SFC TROUGH OFFSHORE MAY ALSO DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST LATE THU...FURTHER MOISTENING THE COLUMN WITH INCREASING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE DAY WED...BUT WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED DRY FORECAST ATTM GIVEN THE LACK OF A SEA BREEZE DUE TO WEAK LAND/SEA TEMP CONTRASTS. THU SEEMS LIKE THE BETTER CANDIDATE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. HAVE SLOWLY RAMPED UP POPS THU AFTN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GENERALLY SLIGHT CHC WITH SOME CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH AND EASTERLY SFC FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BOTH DAYS. WED NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER...GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FINALLY SEES THE DEEP CUTOFF NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES OPEN UP AND RETREAT. DEEP TROUGHINESS LINGERS SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE HOWEVER AS THE FLOW SPLITS WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE OHIO AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS. HERE IN THE CAROLINAS THIS LEADS TO A DEEP MOISTURE-LADEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA PRONE TO AT LEAST A CLIMATOLOGICAL SCATTERING OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FROM A NEARLY COASTAL POSITION ON FRIDAY TO WEST OF THE AREA/CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BOLSTER THE LL MOISTURE AND SHOULD YIELD AND UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE WEEKEND TRANSPIRES. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES ILL-DEFINED IF NOT WASHED OUT ALTOGETHER BY MONDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SMALL DOWNWARD TREND IN RAIN CHANCES...BUT WOULD LIKE TO BE CAUTIOUS WITH OPTIMISM AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE OUTFLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES TO STILL SERVE AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION FOCI. THE DEEP LAYER SWRLY FLOW WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING. THE BETTER BET FOR A SLIGHTLY QUIETER FORECAST COMES ON TUESDAY WHEN THE MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS NO LONGER HAS ANY LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE FLOW VEERS TO MORE WESTERLY. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...SOME MODERATE CU IS WANING IN THE DYING LIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AFTER THE SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DIES IN AN HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED SKIES WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW...SWITCHING AGAIN TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST WITH THE RESULTANT IN THE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS DUE TO MORNING FOG FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. CHANCE MAINLY AFTN/EVNG SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SEAS OF 2-3 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS AROUND 7 SECONDS FROM THE ESE. A LIGHT NE-E CHOP WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SE WAVES AND SINCE WILL REMAIN LIGHT...SO WILL THE CHOP. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS RANGING FROM NNE-ENE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...ONLY PATCHY GROUND FOG NEAR THE ICW IN A FEW LOCATIONS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THU. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE BOTH DAYS...HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ250 WHERE SEAS WILL BECOME AROUND 3 FT ON THU. AS THE REMNANT FRONT/SFC TROUGH OFFSHORE LIFTS BACK TOWARD THE COAST...SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES OVER THE WATERS INCREASE OVERNIGHT THU. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WITH A BOUNDARY STALLED VERY CLOSE TO IF NOT RIGHT OVER THE COAST ON FRIDAY THE WATERS WILL EXPERIENCE A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. ONSHORE WINDS ACT TO LESSEN THE GRADIENT IN WAVE HEIGHT ACROSS THE 20NM WIDTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES SO A GENERAL 3 FT SEA STATE EXPECTED...A COMBINATION OF THE WIND WAVE AND A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. OVER THE WEEKEND THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRAW INLAND...REACHING THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY. THE ONLY REAL LOCAL EFFECT WILL BE A VEERING TO SE OR EVEN S AT TIMES. LAND/SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WILL BE MINIMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR AND NO APPRECIABLE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THE NORMAL NEARSHORE WIND INCREASE AND CHOP. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ 43 NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...BJR LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...43 MARINE...MJC/MBB/BJR

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