Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 280524 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1225 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MOMENT OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BUT A FEW CLOUDS ARE ON THEIR WAY AS A VORT MAX DESCENDS UPON US FROM THE NW. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND FREEZING MANY LOCATIONS...BUT AN UPTICK IN WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX WILL KICK TEMPS BACK UP A TAD AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN THROUGH THE 20S IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW: LAST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY LEFT THE CAPE FEAR REGION AND TEMPERATURES ARE NOW PLUNGING WITH THE SUNSET AS A RESULT. IN FACT...THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST AREA ARE NOW FOUND IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION IN THE UPPER 30S. HAVE MADE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED DATABASE BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE RESULTED. STILL LOOKING FOR A CLEAR AND DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS: STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE DRY AIR FINALLY SWOOPS IN AND WINS THE BATTLE. THERE`S QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND 50 IN KINGSTREE (SOUTH OF FLORENCE) TO 40 ON THE BEACHES EAST OF WILMINGTON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING IN THE FLOW BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN. A DEEP AND VERY COLD TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. A VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS OHIO WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING ONE FINAL REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AT 850 MB THE RENEWED SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION BEGINS SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/1 AM WEDNESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO -5C TO -7C BY DAYBREAK. ONCE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SOME SOME THIN STRATOCUMULUS AT THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LATE TONIGHT. WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND OVERNIGHT MY FORECAST LOWS ARE ON THE HIGH END OF THE MOS GUIDANCE RANGE...26 ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO 27-30 ALONG THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WED AS 5H TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE KEEPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UNDER 0.20 INCH. SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WED BUT DESPITE THIS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE FACE OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WED EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO COLD ADVECTION AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. CALM WINDS AND DEEP DRY AIR SHOULD HELP MAXIMIZE COOLING WED NIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL ISSUE SHOWING UP IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB. THIS LAYER WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY CLOUD BUT COULD LIMIT EFFECTIVENESS OF THE COOLING CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. EITHER WAY LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW CLIMO...LOW TO MID 20S. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST THU UNDER WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE RIDGE. BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 50S BUT MOST AREAS WILL ULTIMATELY END UP SHORT OF CLIMO. SKIES START OFF CLEAR BUT INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE CREATES A CIRRUS DECK LATE IN THE DAY. DURATION OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THU AFTERNOON LIMITS MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THINK SOME SHOWERS COLD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THERE ARE LIMITING FACTORS. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT IS NOT VERY DEEP AND THE LOWEST LEVELS REMAIN DRY. SO EVEN IF PRECIP WERE TO DEVELOP HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. COLD AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING LOWS NEAR CLIMO FRI MORNING.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A DYNAMIC AND CHANGEABLE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHERE INITIALLY AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY SLIPS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES REPLACED BY A SHORT-WAVE UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER VIGOROUS TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY BRINGING A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE THIS TRANSLATES TO EXITING ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY...AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. COMPARISON OF THE GFS/ECMWF SURFACE FIELDS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A HEALTHY GULF MOISTURE TAP WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...BRINGING SOAKING RAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. WPC GUIDANCE AND OTHER NUMERICAL DEPICTIONS SUGGEST 0.75-1.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL STORM TOTAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS THE GULF MOISTURE IF LIFTED AHEAD OF ENERGETIC TROUGH AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...A SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY CLOUDS SCATTERED. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE...SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 16-20 KT. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. STILL EXPECTING A COLD SURGE OVERNIGHT TO KICK UP WINDS AND SEAS INTO SCEC RANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS: STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN ARE DRIVING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH A REINFORCING SURGE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM SHORE. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FEET NEAR 20 MILES OFFSHORE SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A "SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE WILL REMAIN ON THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND 20 KT TO START THE PERIOD WILL DECREASE WED AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND COLD ADVECTION SHUTS OFF. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE COAST WED NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHEAST AND CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU. SURFACE HIGH IS QUICK TO DEPART EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP LATE IN THE DAY THU THEN INCREASING TO A SOLID 20 KT THU NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS AS PERIOD ENDS AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS FRI MORNING. COLD AIR TRAILS THE FRONT WITH WIND SPEEDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT SIMILAR...20 KT OR SO. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FRIDAY MAY NEED A CAUTION STATEMENT FOR 20 KT NNW WINDS AND 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL VASTLY IMPROVE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEARLY OVERHEAD. MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR BLUSTERY S WINDS AND AGITATED SEAS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...III NEAR TERM...REK/TRA SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...MRR/RJD

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