Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 062011 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 311 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A low pressure system will exit the region this evening. Dry and seasonable weather can be expected Wednesday and Thursday ahead of another cold front. Bone chilling cold air associated with an Arctic High, will bring sub-freezing temperatures deep in the 20s Saturday morning. A warming trend however will get underway Sunday, and especially into Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 311 PM Tuesday...7 micron water vapor band reveals dramatic mid-level drying occurring into the eastern Carolinas with rain now essentially curtailed and sea-bound. Scouring entirely the resident cloud cover remains a separate dynamic requiring into Wednesday to see fruition. Partial clearing however can likely be inferred through the visible band from WSW to ENE into the evening. The muddiness, peeks of stars, and non-agressive winds could prompt a pocket or bank of mist and fog to form overnight. Minimums will bottom out at sunrise, 41-49, coolest over the far SE NC interior and mildest along the Georgetown county coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 312 PM Tuesday...Primary headliners this period is a debut of sunshine Wednesday as weak high pressure moves in, and the onset of an Arctic air intrusion late Thursday. Isolated showers Thursday may preceded the cold but QPF expectations are nil to few hundredths. Coldest portion of this time period daybreak Friday 30-35. The mildest part of this period where readings will reach 60-65, both WED/THU aftn. Expect breezy conditions late Thursday as cold air races in.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Very cold temperatures greet the extended as an arctic front will be well offshore Friday morning. Highs and lows Fri/Sat will be 10-15 degrees below climo, peaking in the upper 40s both aftns, and dropping into the low 20s by Saturday morning. This will be the coldest air since last winter, and gusty winds Friday will create an even more significant "bite" to the air despite full sunshine. The cold Canadian high pressure responsible for this chill will push offshore quickly by Sunday thanks to broad cyclonic flow aloft, setting up a warming trend back to seasonable values Sunday and into early next week. As this high moves offshore, return flow develops, and a weak coastal trough may develop offshore, advecting warm and moist air into the region for Monday ahead of a rapidly approaching cold front for Monday night. This will allow Monday to warm to above seasonable temps, but at the same time rain chances will increase ahead of the front late on Monday. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 18Z...Challenging conditions will continue through most of the period for aviation interests with mostly IFR conditions remaining in place. A complex low pressure and frontal system will move northeastward this afternoon and overnight. Although most of the rain will be coming to an end shortly persistent low level moisture will be difficult to scour. There is a brief window of opportunity for MVFR conditions this afternoon and evening but with a weak pressure gradient setting up, IFR should redevelop once again late this evening and be slow to erode Wednesday morning. Extended Outlook...Fog possible Wednesday night. VFR conditions expected to prevail late week through this weekend. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 311 PM Tuesday...Treacherous marine conditions prevail at this time through early Wednesday. Frying Pan 7 feet at 6 seconds, very steep, gusting to 26 knots/30 mph. Closer to shore 5-6 foot pitching waves. Small Craft Advisory flags to remain flapping through the overnight period. Stiff west winds tonight will turn NW, and both directions may impose 25-30 KT gusts. Offshore navigation tonight is discouraged. The ICW can expect gusty crosswinds. Low tide early this evening and again right around sunrise on Wednesday. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 311 PM Tuesday...Main headliner this period is a brief window of manageable marine conditions on Wednesday with lower sea heights and less wind trending. Even much of Thursday offers opportunity but by mid to late afternoon, the leading edge of an Arctic High will crank up NW-N winds in a hurry and by Thursday night the ocean will become perilous again. Expect deteriorating marine conditions late Thursday afternoon and Advisory conditions all of Thursday night. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...SCA conditions possible to greet Friday morning as an arctic front will be positioned well offshore. In the wake of this front early Friday, NW winds of 20-25 kts will push seas up to 4-6 ft, and an SCA may be required. These winds and elevated seas will fall through Friday however as high pressure builds eastward. As this surface high moves eastward and offshore the Mid-Atlantic region during the wknd, winds will weaken to around 10 kts by late Saturday, with a slow veering to the NW. Seas fall quickly late Friday and on Saturday as well, from 3-5 ft Friday aftn to just 1-2 ft at the end of the period.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...SHK

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