Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271926 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 326 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY SUFFER AN INTENSITY LOSS AS THE FUEL OF LOW-LEVEL HEATING UNDERGOES GRADUAL DEPLETION THIS EVENING. BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS IN THE MEANTIME HOWEVER MAY PERPETUATE POCKETS OF STRONG PULSE CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. POP VALUES TONIGHT WILL CARRY A STEADY DOWNTREND TREND ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH FAIR CONDITIONS NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY POP OVER THE MILDER GULFSTREAM WATERS IN A LANDWARD TRACK DUE TO DIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT ..BUT THE CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK AND NO PLANS FOR COASTAL SHOWERS TONIGHT IS PLANNED. ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL SUSTAIN MILD LOWS INTO DAYBREAK BETWEEN 67-69 INLAND AND 69-72 CLOSER TO THE OCEAN. A PARTIAL CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WIND COULD LEAD TO PATCHES OF MIST OR SLIVERS OF FOG BANKS AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECREASE AFT 9Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL UPSTREAM DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM GULF CONVECTION COMING UP THIS WAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY HOWEVER WOULD EXPECT THURSDAY TO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE COMPARED TO FRI AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. EACH DAY THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FARTHER INLAND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY/NIGHT ARE SPOT ON TO CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE SEA BREEZE.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT AND ERODE HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS ON SHORE FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH AND WILL ADVECT SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE DISTANT ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ADD TO OVERALL PCP WATER LEVELS BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION PROVIDING A LID ON GROWTH POTENTIAL OF ANY SHWRS THAT DEVELOP WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. AS RIDGE BUILDS H5 HEIGHT RISES WILL ADD TO VERY WARM TEMPS WITH 850 TEMPS REACHING NEAR 17C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH MID 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND. THE ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS INTO THE 60S WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSE TO THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY FOCUSED ALONG ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZE AT NIGHT....AS WELL AS PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHC OF STRONGER OR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIP EAST AND SLOWLY ERODE IN THE UPPER LEVELS HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. WILL SEE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AROUND LOW WHICH TRIES TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL DIMINISH INTO EARLY EVENING DUE TO SOMEWHAT DRY AIR ABOVE 500 MB. SOUTHWEST FLOW INLAND WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RESULTANT AT THE COAST EXPECTED. TONIGHT...NEARLY CALM WINDS WITH SOME FOG EXPECTED...MAINLY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW...DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS ONGOING AS 10 TO 15 KT S WINDS PREVAIL WITH 2-3 FOOT SEAS. DOMINANT WAVE GROUP WILL PROPAGATE IN 7-8 SECOND PERIODS...ESE 2-3 FEET CO-MINGLED WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP. NO TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT A FEW LATE NIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF STREAM WHICH MAY SPREAD NEAR SHORE INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH DAY. OVERALL WINDS SPEEDS WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH... HOWEVER THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS INTO THE 3-4 FT RANGE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 7-9 SEC RANGE WITH SOME CHOP ON TOP. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK GRADIENT OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP DUE TO SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC PERIODS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DL/MBB

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