Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281012 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 612 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dry cold front will move offshore late this morning. High pressure will follow for the weekend with above normal temperatures expected. Another dry cold front should move across the area on Monday. High pressure will build in from the north following the second front but cold air is limited and above normal temperatures will continue well into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 615 AM Thursday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: A weak cold front will slowly drop southeast across the Appalachians and into the forecast area this morning. Front will gradually dissipate while moving across our northern counties later this morning and should wash out overnight as it drops just SE of the area. There is very little in the way of thermal support with this front so expecting no significant change in daytime temperatures from yesterday`s above-normal readings and only a slight cool-down for the overnight period. This keeps us above climo for today and tonight, with a consensus of guidance giving us highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the 50s. Shallow moisture and weak upper support means no significant precip likely associated with FROPA, although the odd pop-up shower cannot be ruled out. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Friday...FROPA on Friday will be followed by a dry and unseasonably mild airmass for the upcoming weekend. Daytime temperatures will trend higher through the period and continue to run well above normal, peaking in the lower 80s most places on Sunday. The beaches will trend slightly cooler, in the mid to upper 70s. A stable and dry airmass settling overhead means no precipitation is expected through the short term. Another weak cold front will drop into the area in the pre-dawn hours of Monday, but as with the previous front, this one is moisture-starved and lacking in thermal and upper support. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 AM Friday...Period will be dominated by surface and mid level ridging with temperatures above climo and minimal if any rainfall chances. Weak cold front will be moving southeast of the area as the period begins with high pressure building in from the north. The high will be centered over eastern Canada Mon morning but quickly shifts off the New England coast by midweek, setting up low level return flow later in the week. Ridging aloft gradually strengthens Mon and Tue before peaking in strength Wed. Subsidence under the ridge will keep skies mostly clear, prevent rainfall, and lead to temperatures above normal. Late in the period the mid level ridge starts to break down and the surface high`s influence weakens as the high moves farther east. Back door cold front approaches from the north late in the period. If it reaches the region it will likely do so beyond the end of the forecast period. Temperatures will run above climo through the period but will trend down somewhat on Thu as weakening mid level ridge leads to increasing moisture aloft and increasing mid cloud. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 06Z...Slight potential for brief patchy MVFR fog around daybreak, especially inland. Otherwise, VFR through the valid TAF period. A dry cold front poised to cross the area will move offshore later this morning. Guidance has backed off isolated showers with fropa and a look at latest radar trends upstream supports the little to no shower potential idea. Have removed mention of VCSH at all sites but keeping inland MVFR fog. VFR conditions after daybreak with westerly winds becoming west-northwesterly under 10 kt. Only exception will be coastal SC sites where weak sea breeze will overpower the light northwest flow. There is potential for a few hours of southeast winds around 10 kt in the afternoon. Extended Outlook...VFR expected. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 615 AM Thursday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: A weak cold front will slowly drop south of the waters today and tonight while dissipating. With little in the way of a cold surge and with a loose pressure gradient conditions will continue to remain benign. Expect winds of around 10 kts and seas of around 2 to 3 ft for today and tonight. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Friday...High pressure will settle over waters through the weekend with conditions remaining favorable for boating through the period. Expect winds of around 10 kts and seas of around 2 to 3 ft through the period. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 AM Friday...Weak cold front will be pushing southeast of the waters as the period begins with high pressure building in behind the front. Lack of significant cold advection or gradient will keep northerly flow in the 10 to 15 kt range. Initially winds will be out of the north but by Mon afternoon winds should veer to northeast. The surface ridge axis will remain north and west of the waters, maintaining northeast flow through the end of the period. Winds continue in the 10 to 15 kt range through Tue with seas running 2 to 3 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...III NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...III AVIATION...III MARINE...REK/III is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.