Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 111743 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 140 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS CALLED FOR APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO FORECAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS TEMPS LOWERED BY ABOUT A CATEGORY...RAINFALL CHANCES LOWERED...AND QPF REDUCED EVEN MORE. THERE SEEMS LITTLE OPPORTUNITY LEFT FOR DESTABILIZATION EVEN AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WHAT ITS NEAR TERM FATE IS. MOST WANT TO PULL IT BACK NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE...BUT MOST ARE ALSO POORLY INITIALIZED WITH THE LIGHT N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...APPARENTLY NOT SEEING THE MESO-HIGH THAT HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL PERIOD DURING THE WKND AS A COLD FRONT WASHES OUT/LIFTS BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY THANKS TO INCREASING RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PRETTY TYPICAL DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES...SUBSIDENCE BENEATH INCREASING THICKNESSES AND DRYING W/NW FLOW WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON SUNDAY...AND EXPECT FEWER TSTMS SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY. TEMPS DURING THE WKND WILL BE AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S SATURDAY...AND A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON SUNDAY THANKS TO THE INCREASED MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND DECREASED CLOUD COVER. MINS BOTH NIGHTS WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE LOW/MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...A VERY ATYPICAL PATTERN SET TO DEVELOP MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH...MORE TYPICAL OF FALL/WINTER THAN MID-SUMMER...DIVES INTO THE EASTERN STATES. GUIDANCE IS...AND HAS BEEN...IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. WHILE INITIALLY THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD SOUTHERN RIDGING...THIS TROUGH WILL BARREL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES TO THE LOCAL AREA. BENEATH THIS TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALL INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE. THIS SUGGESTS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR INCREASED POP TUE/WED...BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...FRONT APPEARS TO BE HANGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH PREDOMINATELY NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE REGION. PRECIPITATION AT THE PRESENT TIME IS MORE STRATIFORM THAN ANYTHING...BE WE SHOULD SEE EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. FLO WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO VFR...PARTICULARLY IF WINDS STAY ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. WATER VAPOR SHOWS DRIER AIR APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND THIS IS CONFIRMED ON THE TIME HEIGHT...ALL THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OUT BY 23Z. BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING HOWEVER. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT TONIGHT...WITH THE GFS MORE ROBUST WITH THE FOG/STRATUS INLAND. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 845 AM FRIDAY...EXPECT LIGHT AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE NW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THEIR PRESENT 2 OR 3 FT RANGE. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAVERING IN THE VICINITY WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MUCH OF SATURDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW DURING SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE REGAINS ITS INFLUENCE LOCALLY...WITH SPEEDS RISING TO 10-15 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS SATURDAY WILL BE ONLY 1-2 FT ON THE LIGHT WINDS...RISING TO 2-3 FT SUNDAY AS THE WINDS INCREASE AND A SE GROUND SWELL DEVELOPS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND RIDGING BACK TOWARDS THE COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE MARINE CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS OFFSHORE HIGH WILL DRIVE SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL RISE FROM 10-15 KTS TO AS MUCH AS 20-25 KTS LATE TUESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE STEADILY INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS AS WELL...WITH 6 FT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE EXTENDED. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MBB/HAWKINS SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...HDL MARINE...REK/JDW

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