Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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360 FXUS62 KILM 302341 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 741 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 600 PM SATURDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS JUST S OF THE SANTEE RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS WILL AGAIN LOWER WITH A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING MAINLY W OF THE AREA THIS EVE. EARLIER SHOWERS ACROSS DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES HAVE ENDED. MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT. A MID-LEVEL...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO INSPIRE A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE W. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE OR SMALL CHANCE POPS TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS W. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CONVECTION TONIGHT. THE GFS IS ALSO SIMILAR IN ITS EVOLUTION OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS MORE ELEVATED THAN LAST NIGHT AND SO EXPECT MORE STRATUS THAN FOG. IN FACT...CEILINGS MAY TEND TO IMPROVE TOWARD MORNING. THE CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED SE WINDS SHOULD KEEP MINS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID 60S. LOWER 60S WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND N OF A LBT...EYF...ILM LINE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE ADVECTS IN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. A DEEP TAP OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SE OVER EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS IN THE 60S GIVEN THE PERSISTENT S TO SWLY FLOW. WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE COLUMN...A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING PWAT VALUES EXPECTING AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR BOTH DAYS.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER TUE CONTINUES INTO WED WITH FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES TUE BUT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IS EXPECTED WED OR THU. SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW HELPS DRAG THE MOISTURE OFF THE COAST...AIDED BY A MORE POTENT 5H SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVE VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN AND HAS LARGE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MIDWEEK AND ON FORECAST. NO MATTER THE SOLUTION THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND...WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING PWATS UNDER 1 INCH FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO END UP DROPPING BELOW CLIMO AS TROUGHING ALOFT AND MODEST BUT PROLONGED COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO LATER NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN WILL THIS OCCUR AND IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BECOME CLEARER AS THE EVENT NEARS.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN REINTRODUCING STRATUS INTO THE PICTURE...FAIRLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO WAVE NORTH OVERNIGHT. FOR DIURNAL REASONS...WE WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TOWARD MORNING. DO NOT HAVE ANY FOG IN THE PICTURE...BUT MAY HAVE TO REEVALUATE THIS SCENARIO IN THE NEXT SET OF TAFS. SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR. MODELS HAVE WEAK SLUGS OF MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS TO BE FROM MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...TO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL STATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THESE PERIODS RESPECTIVELY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 PM SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT...VEERING E WINDS TO SE. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...S WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...BECOMING SW SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE AROUND 15 KT...WITH SEAS 3 OR 4 FT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA TUE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT. FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SPEEDS DECREASING AND WINDS SLOWLY VEERING TO NORTHERLY. LACK OF COLD ADVECTION AND WEAK GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS TUE NIGHT AND WED. SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVES WITH PASSAGE OF SECOND COLD FRONT ON THU. SURGE IS DELAYED A BIT...ARRIVING LATE THU WITH OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT WED AND THU BUT START CREEPING UP LATE IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...III AVIATION...DL

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