Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 221625 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1125 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the area later today following the passage of a dry cold front around midday. Low pressure over the eastern Gulf will track slowly up from the south Thursday through Friday producing unsettled weather until it finally lifts off to the northeast on Saturday. A dry cold front will move through Saturday night followed by cold and dry Canadian high pressure early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM Wednesday...Surface low now east of Hatteras will continue moving away from the area today. A dry cold front, associated with low pressure in eastern Canada, will cross the area around midday. Cold advection is lacking behind the front and the combination of clearing skies and downslope flow will push highs into the mid to upper 60s. High pressure weakly builds in from the northwest later today and tonight, but the 5h trough axis remains to the west, locking out cold air and setting the stage for the next shortwave/surface low combo just beyond the end of the period. Only changes for morning update were to hasten the exit of precip chances from the forecast this morning and pull the mention of fog now that most areas are reporting visibility above 5SM. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Wednesday...Which model is going to handle the potential for rainfall this period. Models have been dry then moist then back to dry again concerning the potential for a coastal low from late Thu night thru Saturday morning. Of the avbl models, the GFS remains the most wettest along with rainfall occurring well inland from the coast. Will stay with a dry bias and keep pcpn inland penetration east of the I-95 corridor. The disturbed wx in the Gulf of Mexico Wed will hook up with a northern stream mid-level s/w trof dropping southeast to the Gulf Coast by Thu morning. The mid-level s/w trof remains positively tilted as it moves ENE from there staying south of the local area. At the sfc, low pressure will develop along a stalled front just west of Florida Thu, and progged to move along this boundary, ie. across central Florida Fri and NE there-after. The stalled front may oscillate westward but will keep it east of the local coastal waters. With a positive tilt to the s/w aloft, do not see much westward movement of the coastal front or any onshore movement. With the FA on the western side of the coastal front and during the passage of the sfc low, pcpn will mainly be stratiform with any isolated thunder staying over the offshore Atlantic waters. A sharp moisture gradient via identified by both cloudiness and pcpn, will increase the potential for a "busted" fcst if this gradient ends up further east ie. potential drier conditions or westward, ie. potential wetter conditions. Temps this period will run about a category below normal Thu and possibly up to 2+ categories lower depending on the extent of the clouds and rain. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 PM Tuesday...A progressive yet overall dry extended forecast prevails with seasonably cool temperatures, and dry largely in part, because the atmosphere remains dry above 8000 feet. A moderately strong cold front Saturday night may bring a few clouds but column moisture appears too scarce for rain. The dynamics aloft will be running strong, so a brief shower over SE NC cannot be ruled out but no QPF expectations at this time. Sunday should bring brisk north winds, as high pressure builds from the west. The core of the high, and clear skies will team up overhead daybreak on Monday, and may greet some inland areas with sub-freezing air. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 18Z...High confidence for VFR conditions through the forecast period. Low ceilings have finally scattered and should remain so through the end of TAF time. Moisture profiles are not favorable for fog formation. Thursday, mostly sunny skies in the morning with increasing high clouds in the afternoon. Northeast winds are forecast. Extended Outlook...VFR conditions expected through most of Thurs. Low confidence for MVFR to IFR conditions near the coast late Thursday through Saturday morning in low clouds and rain.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM Wednesday...Low pressure, now east of Hatteras, continues to move away from the area today as dry cold front moves in from the northwest. Front crosses the waters early in the afternoon with northwest winds becoming northerly as the parent high slides east. Cold advection is lacking but the gradient will become a little more defined and by the end of the period northeast winds should be a solid 20 kt. Seas currently 3 to 5 ft will respond to the increased northeast flow later today and tonight with seas building to 4 to 6 ft this evening and overnight. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Wednesday...At the start of this period, a stalled front will lie offshore east of the Carolinas before tailing back to the west across central Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Elongated center of high pressure along the Ohio River Valley, will ridge across the area Thu. A tightened sfc pg well be apparent across the local waters due to the area sandwiched between the High`s center and the High`s center. Will likely have SCA conditions at the start of this period. This tightened sfc pg will remain across the local waters Thu into Fri. The tightened gradient associated with the sfc low itself, will peak late Fri thru friday night as the low passes by east of the local waters. Combined Winds and Seas may temporarily drop from SCA to SCEC conditions late Thu, but should bounce back to SCA levels Fri thru Fri night due to the coastal low. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM Tuesday...Winds will begin to back to the NW and increase on Saturday as deepening low pressure passes well offshore. The low will pull well away to the NE Sunday, with moderate N-NNW winds as high pressure builds from the west. An exercise caution period is possible Sunday for N wind, and elevated seas offshore. No 0-20 NM TSTMS this period but a few showers possible late SAT/early SUN as a cold front moves through. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...DCH/SRP LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...DL

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