Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 021919 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 218 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will be reinforced from the northwest and as a result the weather will remain dry through Saturday. The high will move offshore Sunday night. A strong and complex storm system will likely bring soaking rains to the area early next week. The passage of a cold front late next week will usher in the coldest and driest air of the season thus far.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 215 PM Friday...Dry, zonal flow across the Eastern United States will continue through the remainder of the afternoon and tonight. The bulk of the column will remain dry however some cirrus will potentially overspread the area overnight as a storm system across the Southwest United States begins to direct some moisture toward the Carolinas. Scattered cirrus and just enough wind will likely hinder optimal radiational cooling tonight, nevertheless the typical cool spots may dip into the lower to mid 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 215 PM Friday...The atmosphere will be in transition during the short term period as high pressure loses its influence to a developing coastal front and approaching southern stream system. As a result, rain chances will be on the rise, especially by Sunday night given the proximity of the coastal front and increasing isentropic lift. Followed a blend of MAV/MET numbers for the highs/lows each period, however expect non-diurnal temp trends along the coast Sunday night with the coastal front moving onshore late.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 340 AM Friday...To kick off the first full week of December, anticipate showers across the area Monday morning into Tuesday as a low pressure system continues to makes its way from Texas towards the OH valley through the early part of the week. Differences persist between the ECMWF and GFS, both temporally and spatially, and thus confidence remains low attm on the total rainfall expected as well as the duration of the rainfall across the area. For now have kept with the GFS trend, keeping rainfall across the area Tuesday and tapering off Tuesday night. As the system moves out of the picture, focus turns towards the west as another trough develops by midweek. Again, differences arise between the ECMWF and GFS for this system and so the question becomes will there be enough moisture for another round of precipitation with the cold front towards the end of the week, or will this feature become moisture starved by the time it reaches southeastern NC and northeastern SC. For now will carry low POPs for Thursday afternoon. Anticipate high temperatures in the low to mid 60`s through Thursday with overnight low`s in the 40`s. Overnight Thursday, colder air will quickly infiltrate in behind the cold front with overnight lows expected to dip into the 30`s. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 12Z...VFR conditions are expected for the entire forecast period as high pressure ridges into the area from the southern Great Lakes. Winds will be rather light generally less than 10 knots except for KMYR. Directions will generally be north with a west to northwesterly flow after 20 utc. Overnight winds will be light with a northerly wind of 6 to 10 knots from the north on Saturday morning. Models are indicating the only clouds with expected are cirrus clouds moving in late Saturday morning at or above 20,000 feet Extended outlook...Clouds and precipitation expected to return at the end of the period with the potential for MVFR/IFR conditions late Sunday through Wednesday. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 215 PM Friday...Surface high pressure will continue to build across the waters from the W-NW through tonight. A minor surge will build south across the waters generally after midnight. The increase in northerly winds as a result of the surge will allow for a period of Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions primarily for the NC waters which will carry into the short term period. Along the Cape Fear waters seas are expected to build to 4-5 ft, especially away from the inshore waters given the orientation of the fetch. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Friday...Northerly winds will diminish during Saturday afternoon as high pressure builds eastward. The high will slowly progress off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday night allowing the flow to veer to a northeasterly direction beginning late Saturday night. A coastal front will become better established by Sunday night and as it lifts northward the wind is expected to sharply veer to a southerly direction late in the period. Seas of 4 to 5 ft Saturday morning off the Cape Fear coast will subside during the afternoon. Seas should remain below 3 feet during Sunday then begin to build again Sunday night. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 340 AM Friday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible Tuesday and Tuesday night. Expect unsettled weather Monday into Tuesday with showers moving across the waters. Northeast winds 10 to 15 kts will continue on Monday, veering to the southeast and then southwest through Tuesday and Tuesday night as a boundary associated with a low pressure system well inland lifts north across the waters. Seas 2 to 4 ft on Monday will increase to 4 to 6 ft in the outer waters on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...SGL AVIATION...HAWKINS

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