Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 281740 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 140 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FAIR AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. A WET FORECAST IS SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1:30 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS STAYED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...WITH DRYER AIR NEAR THE COAST KEEPING PRECIPITATION FROM MOVING ASHORE. ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWS NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. STILL EXPECT SEASONALLY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORT-WAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE COAST TODAY BRINGING A PLEASANT AND SEASONABLE EARLY FALL SUNDAY. THE RIDGE IS PAINTED WITH WIND-BLOWN HIGH CLOUDS WHICH SPRUNG FROM TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO YESTERDAY. PARTLY SUNNY AND MILD WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MARK MUCH OF THE DAY. METAR AND AVIATION REPORTS REVEAL A MID-LAYER CLOUD DECK COVERING VERY SOUTHERN NC AND ABOUT ALL OF SC THIS MORNING. AM EXPECTING SUNNY BREAKS AT TIMES UNDER THE DIRTY RIDGE BUT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE IMPACTED A DEGREE OR TWO OVER SC. ALTHOUGH THE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BE SLOWLY ERODED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...A WEAK CIRCULATION REMAINS EVIDENT IN RADAR ANIMATIONS. THE NSSL WRF 4KM MODEL RESOLVES THIS FEATURE AND MOVES A WEAK LOW CENTER ONSHORE INTO SC THIS EVENING. THIS IS BELIEVABLE GIVEN RADAR DATA...AND SEVERAL OTHER MODELS PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR TODAY...GIVEN A PROPENSITY FOR ZONES OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE. MODEL SLICES OF THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY SHOW A WARM DRY AND CAP ABOVE 12KFT...SO SHOWERS IF ANY SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF OR OF LOW-QPF CHARACTER. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NOT EASY STREET BUT WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND A MODIFYING CONTINENTAL AIRMASS...MOST LOCALS WILL APPROACH OR CREST 80 DEGREE TODAY. POTENTIALLY SC WOULD BE WARMEST BUT CLOUD COVER MAY HAVE A SAY ON FINAL MAX-T DISTRIBUTION. THIS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY WHERE LBT...A NORTHERLY SITE...WAS THE MILDEST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MON THROUGH TUES. THE SFC LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH BUT A TROUGH WILL EXTEND UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ALIGNING ITSELF RIGHT UP THE CAROLINA COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PCP THROUGH LATE MON INTO EARLY TUES...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE GREATEST QPF REMAINING SOUTH AND WEST OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH MON WITH PCP WATER VALUES REACHING OVER 2 INCHES IN A DEEP SATURATED COLUMN. AS THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES...SHOULD SEE GREATEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOVING FARTHER EAST THROUGH TUES NIGHT AS LOW MOVES OFF TO THE E-NE. BY TUES A DEEPER DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON BACK END OF DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT SOME CLEARING ON BACK END OF SYSTEM HEADING INTO EARLY WED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...SHOULD SEE SOME DEEPER LAYER DRYING IN N-NW FLOW ON BACK END OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH WED THROUGH FRI. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTED AS TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS LOW BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLEVIATE A WEDGE TYPE SCENARIO WED THROUGH FRI. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. TEMPS SHOULD REACH JUST AROUND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ESPECIALLY FRI AS FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE BUILDS UP THE EAST COAST MID WEEK...SHIFTING EAST THROUGH FRI AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH FOLLOWS BEHIND IT. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH FRI WITH BEST CHC OF PCP FRI EVE INTO EARLY SAT. THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO SWING THROUGH ON SAT KEEPING WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND BUT MID TO UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHICH COULD SPELL OUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 18Z...A MIXTURE OF CUMULUS AND BROKEN CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW THAT SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN GOING ON SOME TIME NOW. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TONIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS FROM THE TOP DOWN. BY MONDAY MORNING...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WILL BE BREAKING OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIKEWISE IFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 14-15Z. CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN TO IFR/LOW MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1:30 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: DROPPED SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES EARLY FOR OUR NORTHERNMOST WATERS AS WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DROPPED WELL BELOW CRITERIA. LATEST OBS SHOW NELY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT. NO HAZARDS EXPECTED DURING THE NEAR TERM. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT A TROUGH WILL EXTEND UP INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BEFORE MOVING EAST TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER AND VARIABLE BUT OVERALL MORE E-NE TO START BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AS LOW WRAPS UP AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH TUES. BY TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...THE WINDS MAY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS OR SO WITH SEAS INCREASING UP TO 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. EXPECT A DECENT NORTHERLY SURGE THROUGH WED INTO THURS WITH WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DL MARINE...MJC/REK/RGZ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.