Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 142039 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 339 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure off the coast will result in above normal temperatures through Friday. A cold front will move through the area Friday night, followed by cool high pressure for the weekend. Warm southerly winds will develop early next week and result in a significant warmup. A cold front will approach the area by Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Wednesday...High pressure wedge has eroded as expected with a secondary high center shifting off the SC coast this aftn. This has allowed the morning stratus to lift and sky conditions have improved to partly to mostly sunny. After a slow warmup due to these clouds, temps have climbed into the low 60s as return flow begins to setup in response to the high pressure moving offshore. SW winds will gradually increase as the high expands offshore, and this will drive WAA tonight. This will keep mins very warm, falling only into the low/mid 50s, but will also introduce the potential for stratus once again tonight. The high res guidance /HRRR, RAP, NAM/ all suggest stratus becoming widespread from SE to NW, likely in response to moist advection on return flow. The GFS is not as robust although recent runs of the LAV have hedged towards low ceilings as well. Although the setup for stratus is not ideal like last night with the overrunning, there is enough consensus to expect cloud cover to become widespread, especially along the coast, and shifting inland overnight. This will further keep mins from falling too much. Additionally, a weak shortwave will move easterly and remain north of the CWA, and although no precip is expected from this feature locally, clouds will increase to the north as well before this shifts offshore by Thursday morning. Thursday will be a much warmer and sunnier day than today, as ongoing WAA will allow stratus to burn off in the morning and 850mb temps climb towards 14C. Although cirrus level cloudiness will persist as the subtropical jet transports moisture from the Pacific, the lower levels dry out which will allow temps to climb into the mid and upper 70s away from the coast. Highs on the coast, especially Brunswick County, will remain in the upper 60s thanks to the cool ocean temps.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Wednesday...Southwesterly gradient winds don`t grow overly strong Thursday night but 850-925mb winds crank up into the 40-50kt range. This will lead to a breezy night with low temperatures a bit milder than climatological highs as the region stays above 60. Forecast soundings show drying in this WSW jetting but saturation developing below it in a shallow surface layer manifesting as a shallow layer of stratus. This moist layer persists but not to quite the degree of saturation through the day Friday, shaving off afternoon temperatures from record values. A cold front comes through Friday night and its orientation changes from a traditional SW to NE to a more backdoor-looking W to E as it aligns with the deeper layer westerly flow. This is not a good setup for substantial QPF even despite how moist the especially as forecast soundings show the moisture to be quite shallow.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Wednesday...Surface high pressure will move off the east coast Saturday in the wake of a cold front. The front is expected to stall just south of the CWA Saturday, with weak waves of low pressure riding along it, bringing the potential for scattered showers. Low pressure will strengthen off the Mid- Atlantic coast as a 500 mb shortwave transits the eastern seaboard Saturday night, followed by drying out in zonal flow aloft. A mid and upper-level ridge will amplify off the southeast CONUS Sunday afternoon through Wednesday, and with Bermuda high pressure becoming established, temperatures Monday-Wednesday will remain well above climo. Best chances for precip will be Saturday and Saturday night as a cold front surges through, and again by Wednesday as the upper ridge off the southeast CONUS begins to break down.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 18Z...MVFR flight conditions at the terminals this afternoon with light west winds. A high pressure wedge is still in place with a low level inversion locking in cigs. The inversion is deteriorating this afternoon, and satellite loops show low clouds slowly decreasing. Confidence is high MVFR cigs will improve to VFR at all terminals. VFR this evening with light southwest winds and mid-level cigs. MVFR vsbys in BR will develop tonight with stratus cigs. Due to surface winds around 4 kt and broken mid-level clouds, confidence of IFR vsbys is low. There is better confidence of IFR cigs. Extended Outlook...AM IFR/BR Fri, otherwise VFR Thu/Fri. Showers/MVFR/tempo IFR Sat. VFR Sun. MVFR/SHRA Sun night/Mon. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...High pressure moving offshore will allow winds to shift to the SW and then increase through the period. Winds this evening of 5-10 kts will climb steadily, becoming 15-20 kts on Thursday. Increasing SE swell around this feature combined with an amplifying SW wind wave will drive wave heights up to 4-5 ft Thursday, and a SCEC may be required. Wave heights tonight will remain around 3 ft. Late in the period, sea fog may become possible as the warm moist air continually flood over the cool shelf waters. At this time it appears the best chance for sea fog will occur just beyond this period and have left out any mention in the Wx grids attm. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Southwesterly pre-frontal flow is expected for most of the period. The exception will be a sharp turn to the northeast Friday night with frontal passage. Surface winds and the wind-borne seas will stay below flag thresholds. Low level jetting will be rather strong but tend to stay just inland of the waters. Additionally the cool SSTs and the warm surface air will not foster great vertical mixing. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...A wedge of high pressure across the interior Carolinas on Saturday will result in northeast flow across the waters, with a decent gradient producing winds as high as 15-20 knots. There is uncertainty as to where the strongest gradient will set up Saturday considering there will be a frontal boundary lingering around. By late Saturday night, a cold front is expected to sweep off the coast, bringing north winds for Sunday. A coastal trough will develop Sunday night and move inland Monday, allowing northeast winds to swing around to the south by Monday afternoon.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CRM NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...CRM AVIATION...MRR

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