Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 231853 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 253 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN VIRGINA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL INCREASE THE HUMIDITY LEVELS OVER THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BEGINNING BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 253 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ENDING UP ALONG 70 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY BUT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING UNDER AN INCH. SUSTAINED EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE IN THROUGH THE SURFACE- 3000 FOOT LAYER OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CREATE LOW CLOUDS OR A SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT. USING MOS-BIAS NUMBERS COMPUTED FROM LAST NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 95...UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AT THE COAST...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S ON THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 253 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE 12 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL IN HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE SURFACE PATTERN. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY MORNING AND ITS AXIS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW DURING THIS TIME. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW SUIT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S INLAND TO NEAR 80 ON THE BEACHES ON SUNDAY AND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S AT THE COAST AND BY TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WITH A PREDOMINATE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THE INCREASE IN THE RIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 253 PM SATURDAY...THE MAIN EMPHASIS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON THE PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE MOVES OR CHANGES LITTLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE OR JUST A LITTLE ABOVE. THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING THE RIDGE GETTING WORKED OVER A BIT MORE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY VIA A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE 00UTC ECMWF CONTINUED TO SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE SO A BLEND APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS FOR THESE DAYS WITH THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINS STABLE...NOT SURPRISING AS THE PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH A METHODICAL RISE IN DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOW THE SAME CONSISTENCY WITH MOSTLY MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 18Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY DUE TO PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON WITH EASTERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS...AND INTERMITTENT HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS FEW COVERAGE OF CU JUST DEVELOPING AND THIN CIRRUS...WHICH WILL DISSIPATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THIS WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT...MAY SEE AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR ON SATURDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 253 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY THE HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OUT NEAR 70 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. MUCH LIKE TODAY WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE STRONGER WITH GREATER DISTANCE FROM THE HIGH...AVERAGING 10-12 KNOTS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AND 13-15 KT EAST OF GEORGETOWN/WINYAH BAY. THE LENGTHENING EASTERLY FETCH WILL BEGIN TO GENERATE A 9-10 SECOND SWELL WHICH WILL MIX WITH THE 4- 6 SECOND WAVE SET TO PRODUCE 3-4 FOOT COMBINED SEAS BY LATE TONIGHT...UP ABOUT A FOOT FROM CURRENT BUOY READINGS...AND HIGHEST SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 253 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ITS CENTER TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL PRODUCE A PREDOMINATELY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEAS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 253 PM SATURDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS A MODEST CHANGE IN THE GFS MOSTLY AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH MORE CONVECTION INLAND. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...WHICH GENERALLY ACCOMPANIES THIS CONVECTION IS NOTABLY ABSENT...THUS NO IMPACT ON THE WINDS OR SEAS. CONTINUE TO EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 1-3 FEET. SOME FOUR FOOTERS COULD MEANDER INTO THE OUTER WATERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS WELL. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...HAWKINS LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL

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