Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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368 FXUS62 KILM 011731 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 131 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. GOOD RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST. A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM SUNDAY...HAVE UPPED POPS OVER OUR INLAND COUNTIES FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WITH A LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION NOW MOVING INTO THESE COUNTIES. LATEST FROM SPC AND ALSO AN ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDING DATA SHOW SEVERE THREAT UNLIKELY WITH THE MORE GARDEN-VARIETY THUNDERSTORM A MORE REALISTIC POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND. THE DAY STARTED VERY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN...AND THIS SHOULD ACT TO SUPPRESS EARLY INITIATION OF CONVECTION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS MORNING FOLLOWS: ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL NOT BE STRONG TODAY THE LATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA FROM SENSORS ONBOARD ORBITERS SHOW VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.8 INCHES BEGINNING TO POOL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL INTERIOR FROM VALDOSTA TO COLUMBIA TO RALEIGH. ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE LOWEST 4-5 KFT PER LATEST KLTX VWP SCANS. THIS COUPLED WITH ANTICIPATED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM BURGAW TO WHITEVILLE TO KINGSTREE. ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AND COAST...ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT BEST. CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING LOW 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID- LEVEL DRYING OVERNIGHT SUPPORTED BY RECENT WATER VAPOR MOVIES WILL TAPER EVENING POPS...RAMPING UP SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE MID LEVELS BEGIN TO RE-MOISTEN. MILD MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY...65-70. &&1 .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A GOOD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PEAKING MONDAY NIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. THE MOST RECENT QPF AVERAGE OF VARIOUS MODEL DATA SETS AND WPC REASONING...SUGGEST 1-1.5 INCH TOTALS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA ADDS SUPPORT. PLENTY ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE MIX AND CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW-LEVELS. MID-LEVEL DRYING LATE IN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CURTAIL SHOWER PROBABILITIES...AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFFSHORE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWING A COOLER WEDNESDAY MORNING...UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A LARGE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING AND REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CAROLINAS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON THE EASTERN FLANK. THERE ARE INTERVALS OF QPF SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS BUT IT APPEARS VERY DRY AIR WILL WRAP IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIMITING ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA. THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALSO SERVE TO SCOUR SOME MOISTURE AS WELL. I HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY (WHICH WERE LOW TO BEGIN WITH) TO REPRESENT THIS TREND. THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE WILL BE A FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THE TEMPERATURE TREND WILL BE COOLING BEYOND WEDNESDAY TO SETTLE A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 17Z...MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS INVOF SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA WITH S-SW FLOW...WHILE THE WIND FIELD REMAINS SKEWED IN AREAS OF CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY SHRA/TSRA. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM SUNDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SEAS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE AND WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS DEPENDING UPON LOCATION. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: THE OCEAN IS A BIT BUMPY FOR NO HEADLINES AROUND 4 FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AS THE SEA SPECTRUM REMAINS FULLY TIED TO LOCAL WIND-WAVE ENERGY. TODAY WINDS WILL VEER TO S AND HOLD AT 15 KT...PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT INSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SEAS 3-4 FT. ISOLATED TSTMS TONIGHT. THE DOMINANT SHORT-PERIOD WAVES WILL MAINTAIN A UP AND DOWN NATURE TO THE SEA SPECTRUM TODAY SO SEA SICKNESS MEDS SHOULD BE KEPT NEARBY. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL OCCASIONALLY OCCUR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN S-SW WIND...NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED AND SEAS SHOULD HOLD AT 4 FT OR LESS MOSTLY IN SOUTH WAVE ENERGY EVERY 5-6 SECONDS CO-MINGLED WITH 1-2 FOOT E WAVES EVERY 9 SECONDS. RAIN AND TSTMS WILL REDUCE VSBYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND MARINERS SHOULD GET A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE HEADING OUT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL ALWAYS BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO W EARLY WED BUT ONLY AROUND 10 KT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SOME SEA BREEZE DISTORTION NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW TO THE WIND DIRECTION FOR THURSDAY AND AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. A TURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE SOMEWHAT TO POSSIBLY HEADLINE CRITERIA LATE THURSDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SRP MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK

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