Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 290245 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1045 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT LIMPS OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. RE-DEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLE HEAT ALONG WITH A DAILY DOSE OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1010 PM SUNDAY...LATEST NSSL WRF INDICATES SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED. HOWEVER...EXECUTING A SFC OBS PLOT AND ANALYSIS...A DECENT SFC DEWPOINT GRADIENT EXISTS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE SLOWLY DISSIPATING SFC COLD FRONT AS IT LIMPS TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK. ENOUGH JUICE...IE. CAPE TO EXIST FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THRU MIDNIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTHWARD. WILL CARRY A LOW POP AS A RESULT. HAVE TWEAKED LOW TEMPS TONIGHT BY A DEGREE OR 2...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE SFC COLD FRONT HAS YET TO PUSH ACROSS. WILL BECOME A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH OVERNIGHT CLOUDS...WITH BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR INLAND...TO PARTLY CLOUDY AT THE COAST. THIS BASED ON THE LATEST SAT IR IMAGERY TRENDS...ALONG WITH A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER AS THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND WITH MINIMAL FORCING AND EVEN LESS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN...PWS ARE DOWN IN THE 1.25 INCH AREAS...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF CONVECTION. A STRONGER WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE MID LEVELS DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY STRENGTHENS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND INCREASES TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED AND AS THE SHORTWAVE ROLLS BY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY A SLIGHTLY INCREASED POP. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH NOTED AT THE SURFACE. THIS SETUP SHOULD YIELD NEAR SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE SEA BREEZE BEARING STORMS ALONG THE COASTAL HALF OF THE CWA AND THE TANDEM TROUGHS PROVIDING OPPORTUNITY FARTHER WEST. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO FLATTEN. THE NORMAL RESULTING DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES MAY BE OFFSET HOWEVER BY A FEW DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH ITS BASE. IF ANYTHING THE HIGHER POPS MAY SHIFT TO NORTHERN ZONES LOCALLY BUT AT THIS TIME THAT SEEMS LIKE TOO FINE A DETAIL SO FAR OUT IN TIME. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FIND A NEW UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS RESULTS IN DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR A CONTINUATION OF SLIGHTLY WARM WEATHER AND A FAIRLY NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE NIGHTTIME LOWS IN PARTICULAR WILL LIKELY SHOW AN UPWARD TREND LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO THE LONG DURATION MOISTURE ADVECTION. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 00Z...ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STALLED FRONT JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA PUSHES OFFSHORE TOMORROW. WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT JUST ON THE CUSP OF OUR FORECAST AREA...LATEST RADAR DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS...THOUGH NOT CREATING ANY RESTRICTIONS ATTM. ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. VFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT PATCHY FOG...POTENTIALLY CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR. ON MONDAY...EXPECT VFR AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH- SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AOB 10 KTS...WITH VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 PM SUNDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS MAINLAND HAS ABATED FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT. THERE STILL EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED CELL OR 2 TO MOVE OFF THE MAINLAND AND ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. HOWEVER...WILL ADVERTISE THIS COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE OVER THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. CONVECTION WILL HOWEVER RE-FIRE OVER THE OFFSHORE ATL WATERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE GULF STREAM WATERS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY SPORADICALLY DRIFT INTO THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS DURING THE PRE-DAWN MONDAY HRS. AS FOR WINDS...THE MESOSCALE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION HAS MORE OR LESS DISSIPATED...LEAVING AN OVERALL SYNOPTIC SW 15 KT WIND. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 4 FT...AND OCCASIONALLY UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES MAINLY OFF CAPE FEAR. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6 AND 7 SECONDS. NO GROUND SWELL BEING IDENTIFIED BY THE LOCAL BUOYS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY VIA LATEST LOCAL SWAN AND WAVEWATCH3 MODEL RUNS. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS MINIMAL MONDAY. THE WINDS WILL BE DICTATED MOSTLY BY THE SEA BREEZE WITH A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS. BY MONDAY EVENING LOW LEVEL JETTING INCREASES THE FLOW TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE WIND FURTHER...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WITH HEIGHTS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE MONDAY AND THE HIGHER END LATER TUESDAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS IS THE NORM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT. THE COAST-PARALLEL COMPONENT WILL MAKE FOR A RANGE IN SEA HEIGHTS NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE WITH A GENERAL 2 TO 4 FT RANGE EXPECTED. THE OUTER REACHES ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS WILL OCCASIONALLY ATTAIN 5 FT DUE TO THE STEADINESS OF THE FETCH LEADING TO A GRADUAL RISE IN SWELL ENERGY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL

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