Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251940 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DRAMATIC WARMUP IS EXPECTED TOMORROW ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY A SIMILARLY STRONG COOL DOWN BEHIND A FRIDAY COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING WEEKEND TEMPERATURES TYPICAL OF THE HEART OF WINTER. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL BY MONDAY WHERE THEY SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHEAST. JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS...AN INVERTED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE AKA COASTAL FRONT...HAS BEEN TRYING TO PUSH ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN EASTERLY ACROSS THE ILM CWA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS THE COASTAL TROF PUSHES ONSHORE AND INLAND THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE-SSE... ALLOWING THE MARINE AIRMASS TO PUSH INLAND. AS FOR TONIGHTS MINS...VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE KEEP MIN TEMPS ON EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES FOR THE ENTIRE ILM CWA. AS FOR POPS...COULD SEE ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE FOR -RW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONSHORE AND INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE COASTAL TROF/FRONT. AS FOR THE OVERNIGHT OR PRE-DAWN THU HOURS...SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES HAS WARRANTED AN INCREASE IN POPS TO MODEST CHANCE AT BEST. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MAINLY THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MORE FAVORABLE THEN THE INLAND COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY... HIGHS NEAR 80...THUNDER...AND THE (SLIGHT) POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS ALL WITHIN A 48 HOUR PERIOD. GOOD STUFF! A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THURSDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH. MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE RAIN-FREE BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS THE WARMTH AND MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION WHILE A FEW VERY WEAK VORTS PROVIDE A LITTLE LIFT. TEMPS WILL SOAR TO NEAR 80 DESPITE ABOUT 50 PERCENT CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CAPE FEAR AREA WHERE COOL SSTS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPR 70S IN THE STRONG SW FLOW. FOR SIMILAR REASONS THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF BRUNSWICK CTY AND MUCH OF THE GRAND STRAND WILL BE EVEN MORE TEMPERED. RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AND ALSO SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW START TO IMPINGE UPON THE AREA. THIS FRONT BARRELS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE TUMBLING INTO THE LOWER 50S IF NOT COLDER BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY 00Z AT WHICH TIME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LAGGING VORT HOWEVER SOME NON-MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT DOWNRIGHT LIKELY. AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES IN FORCE THIS MAY LEAD TO A COLUMN THAT IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW FLURRIES BY THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -2C ALONG THE COAST AND -4C INLAND. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WITH LOWS NOT FALLING TO FREEZING NOT TO MENTION THE WARM GROUND FROM THE WARMTH LEADING UP TO FROPA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. ARCTIC HIGH WILL INVADE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. AT THIS POINT A FREEZE SEEMS ALMOST CERTAIN WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A HARD FREEZE. THE KEY WILL BE LOCATION OF THE HIGH SAT NIGHT. IF THE HIGH ENDS UP DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...MAXIMIZING RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS IN THE MID 20S WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN PLACES. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE HIGH WILL END UP DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST...KEEPING LOWS IN THE UPPER 20 TO LOWER 30S. DEEP DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENSURE THE REGION REMAINS DRY AND NEARLY CLOUD FREE FOR THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST LATE SUN AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND LACKING DYNAMICS BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE AREA AND AT THIS POINT THINKS ITS PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIMIT TEMP REBOUND EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT BY MIDWEEK TEMPS WILL BE BACK NEAR CLIMO AS HIGH MODIFIES AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 18Z...A STRONG NE-E FLOW HAS SHOVED MVFR CIGS WEST OF KFLO/KLBT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AT 18Z. STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS FOR THE MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AT KFLO/KLBT... WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KFLO. COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 00Z WITH A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY AFTER 21Z. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AT KFLO/KLBT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR LATE THIS EVENING AT KFLO/KLBT AND OVERNIGHT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE WITH SHOWERS MAINLY COASTAL TERMINALS. INLAND TERMINALS BECOMING VFR DURING THE MORNING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR THURS. FRI RAIN/IFR. SAT MVFR/SHOWERS EARLY BECOMING VFR. VFR SUN/MON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MON. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LATEST OMR AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST REMAIN EASTERLY...AND JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS ESE-SE. THUS...THE COASTAL FRONT/TROF HAS MADE SOME PROGRESS TOWARDS MOVING TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MODELS INDICATE AN ONSHORE MOVEMENT THIS EVENING AND FURTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT. WILL INDICATE VEERING WINDS TO THE SE THIS EVENING...AND SSE OVERNIGHT. THE SFC PG IS SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED AND COULD PRODUCE CLOSE TO A SOLID 20 KT...BUT WITH WAA MOVING ACROSS SSTS IN THE 50S...STAYED CLOSER TO A SOLID 15 KT OR 15-20 KT. WITH AN ONSHORE WIND DIRECTION AND A DECENT FETCH TO WORK WITH...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THIS EVENING...AND WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO DAYTIME THU. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN AROUND 6 SECONDS. AS FOR OVERNIGHT PCPN...SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE IS NOTED ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH DECENT UVVS OCCURRING LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER DUE TO FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY... MODERATELY STRONG PREFRONTAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY BUT COOL SSTS WILL INHIBIT VERTICAL MIXING ADEQUATELY SUCH THAT WIND NOR SEAS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE BUT MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY. THEN AN ABRUPT VEER EARLY FRIDAY WITH FROPA ITSELF. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT THE PERIOD WILL CERTAINLY SHORTEN AS WAVE FACES STEEPEN. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL MAINTAIN 15 TO 20 KT OFFSHORE FLOW. NORTHWEST COMPONENT WILL KEEP HIGHEST SEAS BEYOND 20 NM AND IT APPEARS HEADLINES WILL NOT BE NEEDED DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GRADIENT RELAXES LATE SUN AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS SUN NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING MON...PEAKING IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MON NIGHT...WEAKENING THE GRADIENT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT MAY BUILD SEAS ACROSS OUTER EDGES OF 20 NM OVER 6 FT LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DCH/MRR

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