Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KILM 242213
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
615 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016
Canadian high pressure will build over the area Wednesday. A cold
front may bring a few brief showers to the region late Thursday or
Thursday night. Above normal temperatures are expected into next
weekend before a second cold front moves across the area Sunday
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Surface cold front was located just north of the
VA/NC border at 18Z and is expected to drop across the forecast area
in the 01Z-04Z time frame. Precipitable water in the 0.5-0.75 inch
range will ensure nothing more than perhaps a few clouds associated
with fropa. Temperatures behind the front are expected to fall into
the upper 40s north to lower 50s south by dawn, with dewpoints
dropping into the low to mid 40s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Monday...As a mid-level trough moves off the east coast,
a deamplifying ridge axis will shift from the central plains to the
Carolinas by Wednesday night. This will ensure a dry airmass remains
in place with deep northwesterly flow, as surface high pressure
builds across the Mid-Atlantic region. High temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday will be 8-10 degrees lower than today, with the coolest of
the nights expected to be Tuesday night, with low to mid 40s
away from the coast.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Shortwave moving across the Great Lakes Thu and
New England Fri will drag a cold front into the area Thu night.
The southern end of the front is moisture starved and washed out.
Dynamically there is not a lot going on with minimal troughing
aloft. Widespread significant precip seems unlikely. Fropa timing is
also less than optimal for generating convective rainfall. Will
continue to carry slight chc pop, mainly for Thu night. Modified
surface high builds over the area Fri and Sat before being pushed
south by cold front dropping in from the north Sun morning. As with
the front Thu night, forcing and moisture are limited and in all
likelihood the front will pass dry. Mid level pattern, which is
weakly amplified for the bulk of the forecast period, gains more
amplification Sun into Mon. This helps spread cooler air over the
region Mon as surface high builds in from the north. Temps above
climo Thu-Sun will drop below climo on Mon.
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 00Z...A weak back door cold front will drop into the region
just before midnight, with fropa at all terminals by 06-07Z. No
weather to speak of with it other than a wind shift to the
northeast. Northeast winds will continue on Tuesday, with higher
gusts by mid morning.
Extended Outlook...VFR. Isolated showers Thursday and Thursday
-- End Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Westerly winds will shift to the north behind a
cold front, which is expected to cross the waters from north to
south between 01Z-04Z. Wind gusts behind the front will reach the 20-
25 knot range as surface high pressure begins to build across the
waters, so will include a headline for small craft to exercise
caution. Conditions late tonight and early Tuesday will be close to
small craft advisory thresholds, so would not be surprised if later
guidance necessitates an issuance.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Monday...The ridge of surface high pressure will build
just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic region by Wednesday night. The
moderate gradient over the waters early Tuesday will weaken by early
afternoon, allowing winds to diminish toward 15 knots. Winds will
veer to the east by late Wednesday, and the gradient will continue
to weaken through the period, allowing winds to fall off to around
10 knots by then.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Cold front approaching from the west Thu will
induce southerly flow but lack of a strong gradient ahead of the
front will keep speeds under 10 kt. Gradient post front is also
weak with modified high pressure building in from the northwest.
Offshore flow Fri will remain around 10 kt, veering to southwest
Sat with speeds increasing to 10 to 15 kt late in the period. Seas
around 2 ft Thu and Fri build to 2 to 3 ft later Sat.