-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 282252
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
552 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN
THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER
INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A DAY
OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW FOR LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH CONTINUES WEDGING DOWN THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH LATE FEB SUNSHINE HAS BEEN ABLE TO
OVERPOWER MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. THE WARMTH WILL BE SHORT
LIVED ONCE THE SUN STARTS TO SET. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH PLENTY OF
COLD DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 300-305K WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS
850MB RIDGE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE SURFACE LAYER WILL TAKE A
SOME TIME TO MOISTEN UP BUT PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVERNIGHT.

THE GOOD NEWS IS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIP IT
IS LIKELY TO TAKE QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE PRECIP STARTS REACHING THE
SURFACE. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THE COLD/DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MAINLY THOSE WEST OF I-95...IS LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING WHEN THE RAIN FINALLY DOES REACH THE SURFACE. GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO KEEP ROADWAYS FROM FREEZING BUT ELEVATED
SURFACES...INCLUDING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
GLAZING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 12Z BETWEEN A
TRACE AND A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. BASED ON THE EXPECTATION OF
FREEZING RAIN HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL
INLAND COUNTIES. CLOSER TO THE COAST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING SO LIGHT RAIN IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED...WITH THE NC COAST
LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR RIDES ACROSS
THE TOP OF THIS COLD AND DENSE LAYER....WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BE BREAKING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WHERE TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING IS WHERE WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT ICE ACCRUAL WHICH INCLUDES
ALL OR A PORTION OF FLORENCE...MARION...DARLINGTON...MARLBORO...
DILLON...ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BLADEN COUNTIES. IN THIS AREA WE
EXPECT ICE TO ACCRETE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
THE ICING SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING SUN MORNING AS TEMPS RISE
ABOVE FREEZING...LASTLY FROM LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN NORTHWARD.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS WHERE THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST. ALONG
THE COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO MIGRATE TO THE COAST
DURING SUN. WILL INCLUDE SMALLER POPS AS YOU PROGRESS EASTWARD TO
THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
PORTIONS OF INLAND PENDER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FAR INLAND HORRY
COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SPOTTY FREEZING
RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN AN ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON SUN AND INTO SUN EVE...THE WEDGE
WILL BE LOSING ITS INFLUENCE...WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT OUT...WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. DO
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO CUT OFF SUN EVE AND OVERNIGHT FROM
INLAND TO THE COAST AS FORCING WANES. MOISTURE BECOMES RATHER
SCARCE IN DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWERS FOR MON...BUT DID
KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR MON EVE/NIGHT.

HIGHS SUN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND WITH UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S MOST COMMON AT THE COAST. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME MODEST
SUNSHINE ON MON WILL ALLOW FOR THE WARMEST DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS SINCE FEB 22...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION MON NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY
OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES WITH WEDGE INLAND AND COASTAL TROUGH EVIDENT
ALONG THE COAST. THE WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ON SHORE THROUGH
THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PULLS A WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH NORTH. PCP WILL BE
MORE CONVECTIVE ALONG AND EAST OF COASTAL TROUGH BUT INLAND WILL
REMAIN MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL WEST AND
NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT STILL COUNTING ON CLOUDS AND LOW
END PCP AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. TEMP GRADIENT MAY BECOME QUITE
STEEP WITH INLAND AREAS REMAINING IN THE COOL WEDGE WHILE WARMER
TEMPS MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ADVECT IN ALONG THE COAST BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP WEDGE HOLDING THROUGH MOST OF AREA WITH COOLER TEMPS
MOST OF THE DAY.

ONCE WARM FRONT BLOWS NORTH DEEP WAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
MUCH AT ALL OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE LOWS EARLY ON AND RISING TEMPS
TOWARD MORNING. A RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE GULF AS TROUGH
DEEPENS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MID WEST THROUGH TUES. THIS SHOULD HELP
TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND PRODUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
GFS SHOWS 850 TEMPS RISING FROM 5C TUES MORNING UP CLOSE TO 13C BY
WED AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE
AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY
PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM
AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE
SLIGHTLY ON WED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH AND COLD FRONT STILL
REMAINS WELL WEST. LATEST GFS FELL MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF HOLDING
FROPA BACK UNTIL THURS. COASTAL CAROLINAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PCP ON WED AND MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE ONLY CURVE BALL COULD BE SOME SEA
FOG WHICH MAY ADVECT INTO COASTAL AREAS AS WARM AIR FLOWS OVER
COOLER OCEAN WATERS. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO SEE
HOW THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED PAN OUT FOR FORMATION OF FOG.

COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NOT
INCLUDING ANY TSTORMS AT THIS TIME BUT SHWRS WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THURS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. COLD AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT WITH PCP TAPERING OFF LATE
DAY THURS WITH CLEARING SKIES. PCP WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
EARLY THURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH BY FRI MORNING. EXPECT COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRI INTO SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 00Z...SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WARM NOSE IS SO DEEP...LOOKS LIKE ANY
PRECIP OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIQUID. THE ONLY QUESTION IS IF WE WILL GET
BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE
INLAND TERMINALS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...WITH
LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND ARE FORECAST TO STAY
NEAR 10 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH FALLING CEILINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY INLAND. LOOK
FOR COLD AND DREARY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WINTER REFUSES TO LET GO.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
WEDGE RECEDES AND WE BEGIN A LONG OVERDUE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR MONDAY. PERIODS OF
MVFR/SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS AND BASED
ON LATEST WAVE FORECAST HAD TO EXTEND THE END OF THE ADVISORY TO 12Z
SUN. GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS PINCHED THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. COASTAL TROUGH WILL START TO
TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING THE NEAR SHORE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN NORTHEAST FLOW...FROM 20 TO 25 KT DOWN TO
15 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ALLOWS FOR
FALLING SEAS...BUT DURATION OF NORTHEAST FLOW EVENT IS LIKELY TO
MAINTAIN SCA ADVISORY SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
WATERS SUN AND THEN LIFTING OUT SUN NIGHT. WINDS SUN MORNING WILL
BE FROM THE E AND SE...VEERING TO S AND SW SUN NIGHT AND THEN TO
THE W AND NW OVERNIGHT. BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
N MON AFTERNOON AND TO NE DURING THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT MON. SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF WATERS OVER
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES. THE COOL HIGH
PRESS WILL REMAIN WEDGED IN OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY PULL A WARM FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH
NORTH BY TUES EVE. MAY SEE GRADIENT BECOME SLIGHTLY PINCHED BETWEEN
WEDGE AND COASTAL TROUGH ON TUES BUT OVERALL EXPECT NE WINDS EARLY
TUES SHIFTING AROUND TO E THEN SE BY END OF DAY AND SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER NORTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS TUES THROUGH WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 4 FT EARLY TUES BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS
BY TUES EVENING IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY PUSH. THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FT BY MIDNIGHT
AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED UP TO 15 KTS KEEPING SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE BUT WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO
THURS AS COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL
PRODUCE WINDS UP NEAR 20 KTS AS THEY VEER AROUND TO SW AND
EVENTUALLY NW-N ON THURS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THURS BEFORE DROPPING IN
OFF SHORE FLOW THROUGH THURS. SURGE BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS UP
TO 15 TO 25 KTS ACROSS WATERS THURS NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS
GREATEST IN THE OUTER WATERS...UP TO 5 TO 7 FT. MAY SEE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FROM TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT UNTIL
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD ON FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033.

NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43