Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 242213 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 615 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will build over the area Wednesday. A cold front may bring a few brief showers to the region late Thursday or Thursday night. Above normal temperatures are expected into next weekend before a second cold front moves across the area Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 3 PM Monday...Surface cold front was located just north of the VA/NC border at 18Z and is expected to drop across the forecast area in the 01Z-04Z time frame. Precipitable water in the 0.5-0.75 inch range will ensure nothing more than perhaps a few clouds associated with fropa. Temperatures behind the front are expected to fall into the upper 40s north to lower 50s south by dawn, with dewpoints dropping into the low to mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Monday...As a mid-level trough moves off the east coast, a deamplifying ridge axis will shift from the central plains to the Carolinas by Wednesday night. This will ensure a dry airmass remains in place with deep northwesterly flow, as surface high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic region. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be 8-10 degrees lower than today, with the coolest of the nights expected to be Tuesday night, with low to mid 40s away from the coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...Shortwave moving across the Great Lakes Thu and New England Fri will drag a cold front into the area Thu night. The southern end of the front is moisture starved and washed out. Dynamically there is not a lot going on with minimal troughing aloft. Widespread significant precip seems unlikely. Fropa timing is also less than optimal for generating convective rainfall. Will continue to carry slight chc pop, mainly for Thu night. Modified surface high builds over the area Fri and Sat before being pushed south by cold front dropping in from the north Sun morning. As with the front Thu night, forcing and moisture are limited and in all likelihood the front will pass dry. Mid level pattern, which is weakly amplified for the bulk of the forecast period, gains more amplification Sun into Mon. This helps spread cooler air over the region Mon as surface high builds in from the north. Temps above climo Thu-Sun will drop below climo on Mon. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 00Z...A weak back door cold front will drop into the region just before midnight, with fropa at all terminals by 06-07Z. No weather to speak of with it other than a wind shift to the northeast. Northeast winds will continue on Tuesday, with higher gusts by mid morning. Extended Outlook...VFR. Isolated showers Thursday and Thursday night.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Monday...Westerly winds will shift to the north behind a cold front, which is expected to cross the waters from north to south between 01Z-04Z. Wind gusts behind the front will reach the 20- 25 knot range as surface high pressure begins to build across the waters, so will include a headline for small craft to exercise caution. Conditions late tonight and early Tuesday will be close to small craft advisory thresholds, so would not be surprised if later guidance necessitates an issuance. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Monday...The ridge of surface high pressure will build just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic region by Wednesday night. The moderate gradient over the waters early Tuesday will weaken by early afternoon, allowing winds to diminish toward 15 knots. Winds will veer to the east by late Wednesday, and the gradient will continue to weaken through the period, allowing winds to fall off to around 10 knots by then. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...Cold front approaching from the west Thu will induce southerly flow but lack of a strong gradient ahead of the front will keep speeds under 10 kt. Gradient post front is also weak with modified high pressure building in from the northwest. Offshore flow Fri will remain around 10 kt, veering to southwest Sat with speeds increasing to 10 to 15 kt late in the period. Seas around 2 ft Thu and Fri build to 2 to 3 ft later Sat. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CRM SHORT TERM...CRM LONG TERM...III AVIATION...43 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.