-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 141426
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1026 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER INTO TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA
WEATHER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONLY SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...BUT MUCH MORE
CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS CLOUD COVER IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC...AND HIGH/MID
CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT IS TRAILING FROM A CYCLONE MOVING UP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...AND ALTHOUGH ITS DIRECT IMPACTS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
THIS PERIOD...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TODAY.

KLTX RADAR THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN A FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO MOVE
ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC ON S/SE WINDS...BUT MOST OF THESE ARE
EVAPORATING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE COOLER SHELF WATERS...BEFORE
COMING ONSHORE. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT...AND AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE HIGH RES
MODELS...HRRR/ARW/WRF...SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN OF SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE BEFORE ROTATING NORTH AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE...AND DUE TO
THIS AGREEMENT HAVE SHOWN POP GRIDS WHICH MATCH THIS IDEA. AT THE
SAME TIME...PRECIP WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. MID-LEVEL DRYNESS WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME...BUT
BY TONIGHT FORECAST PROFILES SATURATE AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE AREA. TOTAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY...AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD.

TEMPS TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPR 70S...HIGHEST INLAND. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPERED BY CONTINUING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING RAIN SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER...SO EXPECT A RATHER MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE WITH MINS IN THE UPPER 60S AT THE COAST...MID 60S
INLAND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S...WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR INCREASED SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. LLJ UP TO 45 KTS COMBINED
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCLUDING A STRONG JET WILL AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SPC CONTINUES TO HOLD US IN SLIGHT RISK WITH
MAIN THREAT AS DAMAGING WIND AND POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO IN SOME
LINE SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS TUES AFTN. THE CLOUDS MAY COME
INTO PLAY AS A LIMITING FACTOR WORKING AGAINST THE CONTINUED WAA
THROUGH TUES...BUT TEMPS WILL ALREADY BE WELL INTO THE 60S TO START
THE DAY AND SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST PLACES. TEMPS
SHOULD MODERATE WITH PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FRONT. BEST LIFT WILL COME AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING.

A TOTAL CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL COME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND FRONT THROUGH WED MORNING. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH DAYBREAK WED. PCP
WATER VALUES UP AROUND 1.8 INCHES AHEAD OF FRONT LATE TUES WILL
DROP TO AS LOW AS A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY WED MORNING. 850 TEMPS
WILL PLUMMET FROM CLOSE TO 13C DOWN NEAR 4C BY WED MORNING. THIS
STRONG CAA WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN ABOUT 20 DEGREES F FROM TUES TO
WED. TEMPS BY WED MORNING WILL BE DOWN IN THE 30S OVER SOME PLACES
INLAND. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP FROM THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DOWN TO MID 20S BY TUES AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT COOL NORTHERLY
WINDS TO BE OFFSET BY PLENTY OF APRIL SUNSHINE TO PRODUCE TEMPS
CLOSE TO 60. A PINCHED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP N-NE FLOW
REINFORCING THE COOL AIR THROUGH THURS NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD DROP
ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 30S MANY PLACES INLAND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
AS WEDGE LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPS THURS INTO FRI WITH TROUGH OFF
SHORE. THE GREATER ON SHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THURS AND FURTHER INTO
FRIDAY. PCP WATER VALUES REMAIN DOWN BELOW A HALF INCH THROUGH
THURS BUT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND RISES UP FROM THE GULF
COAST THROUGH FRI...THE SHALLOW COOL AND DRY AIR WILL BE OVERRUN
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL PROVIDE
INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBILITY OF PCP. THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SHALLOW...BASICALLY BELOW 5K FT. AT THE SAME TIME A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM MOVES EAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEM MAY KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OFF
SHORE THROUGH FRI LEAVING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. KEPT POPS UP ON FRI ALTHOUGH NOT CONFIDENT THAT ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REACH THIS FAR NORTH FROM GULF LOW BEFORE
MOVING OFF SHORE. MAY END UP BEING MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
THURS INTO FRI THAN PCP. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN CAA
INITIALLY AND THEN CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS LOWER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP BY SUN NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REACH BACK UP
TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...DENSE CIRRUS AND WINDS AROUND 5 KTS HAVE KEPT FOG AT BAY
THIS MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOOK FOR RISING DEWPOINTS AND AN INCREASING
SOUTH WIND. SOME CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS THE RESULTANT
COULD KICK OFF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...FAIRLY SPARSE COVERAGE
WITH A VCSH MENTION. TONIGHT...CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS INTO
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING COLD
FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE
CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST...BUT IS SLOWLY LOSING
ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA. THIS IS DRIVING S/SE WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AT
THE LOCAL BUOYS...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS TONIGHT. LOCAL SWAN GUIDANCE IS ABOUT 1 FT TOO
HIGH WITH CURRENT SEAS...SO HAVE BLENDED DOWN WITH WNAWAVE TO MORE
ACCURATELY REPRESENT ONGOING CONDITIONS...AND SHOW A SLOWER RISE IN
WAVE HEIGHTS TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 4-6 FT
TONIGHT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT...BEGINNING
AT 2 AM TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. MAY REACH GALE CRITERIA TUES NIGHT IN COLD SURGE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT TUESDAY BEFORE RAPIDLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH TUES FROM 5 TO 7 FT UP
TO 6 TO 8 FT TUES EVENING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW UP TO 30 KTS WILL KEEP SEAS UP
POSSIBLY TO 9 FT IN OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT TUES INTO EARLY WED.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH WED AS NORTHERLY WINDS VEER
SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
SHORE ALONG LINGERING COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE OF COLD
AIR AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAINTAIN N-NE WINDS CLOSER TO
20 KTS INITIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN AND VEER SLIGHTLY LATE THURS REMAINING CLOSER TO 15 KTS
THROUGH FRI. SEAS SHOULD DROP DOWN BUT REMAIN 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...JDW/BJR
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43