Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 191849 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 249 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH...PASSING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE SUCH THAT ITS IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK DOWN THE COAST ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE STRONGLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SAT. MEANTIME...AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA WILL SHARPEN AND MAY CLOSE OFF AS EARLY AT SAT MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 15 TO 25 MPH...HIGHEST AT THE COAST AS A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND THE STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SAT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN THROUGH 25 KFT DUE TO THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. THIS MOISTURE SUPPLY IS DEEPEST ALONG THE COAST. THIS SCENARIO LENDS ITSELF WELL TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MORE OFFSHORE CONVECTION MOVING ONSHORE GIVEN THE PREVAILING FLOW. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE GRAND STAND AND WINYAH BAY AREA AND PERHAPS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL CAP POPS AT GOOD CHANCE IN AND AROUND GEORGETOWN WITH CHANCE POPS ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST. COLUMN DOES NOT MOISTEN SIGNIFICANTLY NORTHWEST OF A EYF TO FLO LINE AND SO WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING SHOWERS HERE AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IT WILL BE A BREEZY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NEAR THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE BEACHES NEAR 70 DEG. ELSEWHERE...LOWS SHOULD DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THINNEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POISED TO DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH FOR LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. I HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE COASTAL ZONES AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE BEST LIFT AND MORE IMPORTANTLY MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS BETWEEN 1800 UTC SATURDAY AND 0000 UTC SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH MAYBE BALD HEAD ISLAND AND EXTREME EASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY SEEING A BIT MORE. SYSTEM PULLS OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY LEAVING IN ITS WAKE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS REQUIRED LITTLE CHANGE. A COOL DAY SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 80. INSOLATION BUMPS MAX TEMPERATURES UP ABOUT A CATEGORY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IS SHOWING DUE TO OVERCAST SKIES AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MONDAY COLD FRONT LOOKING FASTER AND LIKELY THROUGH BY MORNING. THE AFTERNOON LINGERING PRECIP ALONG THE COAST DEPICTED BY THE GFS IS ASSOC WITH A HEALTHY VORT MAX COMING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND IS THUS HARD TO ARGUE WITH. BY TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF NY WILL SPRAWL ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S. INCLUDING A RIDGE AXIS DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. SOME ONSHORE FLOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES MAY SPONSOR SOME CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS A STRAY SPRINKLE. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS HOLDS TOUGH. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD CREEP OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A JUST A FEW DEGREES SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...STRONG WEDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE...AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION ALONG THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AS WELL AS THE COAST. COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED HOWEVER. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TONIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG. A NOCTURNAL ONSHORE SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT THE MYRTLES NEAR SUNRISE...CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AS THE LOW AND MOISTURE MOVE NORTHWARD...ILM WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION TOWARD MIDDAY SATURDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST SAT EVENING. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SAT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST ON SUN AS LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WITH A COLD FRONT MONDAY. VFR TUE AND WED. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE STRONGLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SATURDAY. MEANTIME...A PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH POKING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA WILL SHARPEN AS IT EXPANDS NORTH. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA TOWARD SAT MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. SUSTAINED EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND GUSTY. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 6 TO 7 FT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HEALTHY NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVES WELL OFFSHORE. I HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS SATURDAY AND THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL ECLIPSE THE SIX FOOT CRITERIA MAINLY ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE ZONES. A MORE MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW....10-15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY AND PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AS WELL INTO A RANGE OF 2-3 FEET. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...EARLY MONDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE VEERS WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THE GRADIENT WILL INITIALLY BE RATHER WEAK AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT. AS THE GRADIENT PINCHES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL RAMP UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT REALM. A FEW ADVISORY-WORTHY SEAS APPEAR POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL BUT HORRY CTY WHERE WAVE SHADOWING WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ADVISORY. SCEC MAY BE NEEDED HOWEVER. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ254-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...RJD/DL

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