Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KILM 251725
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
125 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016
An upper level ridge of high pressure will allow for warm
temperatures and minimal rain chances through most of the
upcoming seven days. At the surface there will be a light onshore
flow. A tropical disturbance in the Bahamas will cross Florida
over the weekend and may need to be watched for a turn up the
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM Thursday...Morning sounding from MHX continues to
show strong mid-level capping with a base around 800 mb. This is
the result of subsidence under the mid level ridge that has been
steadily working its way north from the Gulf Coast. This has all
but prevent any vertical growth of diurnal cumulus the last few
days and will again do so today. Short range high resolution
guidance has been showing development of weak, short lived showers
along the sea breeze but the bulk of the area will remain dry.
Highs will be near to slightly above climo with temps ranging from
upper 80s along the coast to lower 90s inland.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Primary weather highlights this period are
maximum temperatures a few degrees above normal, small rain chances,
and a fairly comfortable air mass as dewpoints hold in the lower 70s
compared to middle and upper. Over-lap of peak heating and inland
convergence could pop an isolated TSTM Saturday afternoon when
moisture deepens slightly. Otherwise mainly fair this period with
heat induced cumulus both days. Lows will become a bit milder this
period and by early Sunday minimums in the middle 70s.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Models struggling right off the bat with the
start of the long term period. Strong mid level ridge still likely
in command but models now interestingly try to retrograde an upper
impulse our way out of the messy remnants of Fiona and stalled front
well off the coast. GFS and older EC imply this feature to be of
little consequence locally but the Canadian has a strong surface
reflection and could imply rain though it keeps it all north of
here. For now have maintained warm temps and isolated POPs of
continuity especially since the latest EC barely shows it at all.
Assuming all of the aforementioned the upper ridging will maintain
warm temps and minimal POPs through the period. Towards the midweek
we may start dealing with some moisture associated with tropical
disturbance AL99. The surface pressure pattern remains quite poorly
defined through the long term with just a general light onshore
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 18Z...Other than possible early morning MVFR fog for LBT and
FLO, high confidence in VFR through the TAF period.
High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue modest winds
at the terminals, becoming light and variable or calm overnight.
Wind directions today may be variable at times for the inland
terminals with high pressure directly overhead, but the coastal
terminals will likely experience a weak sea-breeze related south-
easterly flow through the afternoon hours.
Scattered to occasionally broken fair weather CU with bases
from 4 to 6 kft will persist through the afternoon hours, fading
this evening with only patchy light cirrus remaining.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Potential for MVFR due to areas of haze or fog
early each morning and with isolated convection on Monday and
Tuesday. Otherwise expect VFR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM Thursday...Other than a few lingering light showers
will be a quiet across the waters today. Northeast to east winds
on the low end of the 10 to 15 kt range will continues as high
pressure extends southwest into the region. Seas will remain
around 3 ft through the period.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Great pair of boating days as winds ease, to a
light onshore flow. Seas between 2-3 feet, and longer wave periods
may begin to emerge in the spectrum by Saturday. Isolated marine
showers may be expected in the mornings this period but they will
remain widely separated. No advisories or hazards noted this period.
Slight stronger inshore winds in the afternoon due to the sea
breeze both Friday and Saturday.
LONG TERM/SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...A very weak pressure gradient making for
some very light winds even by Summer standards through the long
term. Wind waves will obviously be minimal. There will be an
increase in swell energy however associated with Gaston, the
extent of which will hinge upon the yet uncertain strength and
size of the hurricane. WNA guidance shows the main swell front
arriving Sunday evening. We may have to increase wave height
forecast for Monday but for now it shows the main increase in wave
height staying to our north.