Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS62 KILM 161158
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
658 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017
High pressure will extend into the Carolinas through today. A
warming trend will occur Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a cold front
which will drop south through the Carolinas late Wednesday. Cooler
and drier high pressure will follow on Thursday. Low pressure
moving up from the Gulf coast will drag a warm front through the area
on Friday. High pressure will build in on Saturday before another
system brings unsettled weather for Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 600 AM Monday...Widespread low clouds and some fog
blanket the forecast area this morning. A stationary front lies
just to our S with an area of high pressure across New England
and the mid-Atlantic ridging south across the Forecast Area.
Some light rain was beginning to exit the coast to our N and
We expect the low clouds and fog will only slowly lift through the
morning hours with skies brightening just slightly during the
afternoon. However, it will remain mainly cloudy through the
day. These clouds will ultimately determine the highs for the
day. We are hedging in the direction of the cooler guidance
given the ongoing conditions and expected thick cloud cover.
Highs should be mainly in the upper 50s N to lower to mid 60s S
with perhaps some upper 60s along the South Santee River.
Given a front will be sitting to our S, will align the forecast
with the Euro and several of the other models by including a
small POP for the southern portions of the area where frontal
lift and convergence culminate. Still, even in these areas, the
depth of moisture is shallow and so would not expect significant
The front should move back to the N and across the FA tonight and
Tue morning as a warm front as the high begins to move offshore.
This will bring the risk of more fog and stratus, and perhaps
some spotty light rain. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to
lower 50s, with temps tending to stabilize toward morning.
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...The warm front should be moving N of the area
Tue morning. Warm air advection ahead of a cold front should allow
for much more in the way of sunshine compared to the first two days
of the week. A SW flow will help bring highs into the upper 60s and
lower 70s Tue. We will still be in the warm air on Wed, but the
column will be moistening up and will include mention of scattered
showers that day. However, there is westerly flow through a deep
layer and will confine POPs to chance at this time. A back door cold
front should move across the Carolinas Wed night.
Highest temps of the week should occur on Wed with widespread lower
70s. Coolest temps of the period will occur behind the cold front
Wed night, upper 40s and lower 50s.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...Ridge will build and move over the
southeast and east coast Thurs into Fri. As the ridge axis
shifts east by late Thurs the winds in the mid to upper levels
will shift to the SW allowing fro some upper level moisture to
spread into the Carolinas, but the column will start out very
dry early Thurs. Therefore expect some passing clouds Thurs
night into Fri but overall quiet weather to start the long term
with a relatively cooler air mass in place and plenty of
sunshine on Thurs.
By Fri, clouds will increase and so will chance of pcp as low
pressure lifts north up the Mississippi Valley with a warm front
moving through leaving a deep southerly flow of warm and moist
air through Fri into the weekend. The greatest QPF should lie to
the west of local forecast area through the morning hours with
pcp tapering off through the afternoon hours as system lifts
farther north. Winds will shift to the W-SW overnight Fri
leaving drier conditions as weak high pressure moves on
Saturday, but it looks like another system will follow spreading
more clouds and rain into the area for the latter half of the
weekend into early next week. Temps will stay on the warm side,
remaining well above normal through the weekend.
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 12Z...3.9 Satellite shows abundant IFR/LIFR conditions
throughout much of the CWA. ILM is hanging just above IFR and will
have to be monitored closely. Look for slowly improving conditions
as the morning wears on. An old frontal boundary will try to wave
north this evening. IFR conditions will likely return tonight.
Northeast flow today with light winds tonight.
Extended Outlook...Stratus/fog possible each morning through
Tuesday. Cold front expected Wednesday, accompanied with showers and
MVFR. Showers possible Friday. Otherwise expect VFR.
-- Changed Discussion --NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 AM Monday...NE flow will dominate as high pressure
ridges south across the waters today. A front stalled to our S
will move back across the waters tonight and Tue morning. Winds
will veer to SE late tonight and to SW Tue morning. Wind speeds
are not expected to exceed 10 to 15 kt through the period,
strongest today. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft today, subsiding to 1 to
2 ft by later tonight.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...A warm front will be moving N of the waters
Tue morning. SSW to SW winds will become SW and increase ahead of a
backdoor cold front which will move across the waters Wed eve.
Winds will shift to the N with frontal passage. The strongest
winds this period will be up to 15 to 20 kt Wed and through the
first part of Wed night. Seas of 2 ft or less Tue will build to
2 to 3 ft by Wed morning with some 4 to 5 ft seas Wed and Wed
night. We will be watching for the development of sea stratus
and sea fog as higher dewpoints move back across the waters
during the period. At this time, we have patchy fog in the
forecast for Tue night into Wed.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...Weak high pressure will build in behind
departing cold front on Thurs. Expect a deeper N to NW flow
behind it but on the weak side. Therefore expect seas to lower
through Thurs down less than 3 ft by Fri morning. Light and
variable winds early Friday will become on shore and eventually
southerly as low pressure lifting up through the Mississippi
Valley pulls a warm front through the Carolinas. This southerly
push will bring seas up to 3 to 4 ft most waters late Friday
into early Saturday.
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