Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 290205 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1005 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: NOT MUCH TO CHANGE THIS EVENING AS FAR AS THE FORECAST GOES. STILL EXPECTING A DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL OVERNIGHT WITH CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME COMFORTABLE AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHEASTERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAINTAIN THE EAST-WEST DEWPOINT GRADIENT IN PLACE. AREA-WIDE THIS WILL TEND TO MEAN IT IS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AND EVEN THE SEA BREEZE FAILED TO DO SO DURING PEAK HEATING (THOUGH THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES ACRS PARTS OF GTOWN AND HORRY). SIMILARLY IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR `NORMAL` FOG (BELOW ABOUT 1 SM). THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO PLAY INTO NIGHTTIME LOWS WHICH WILL RANGE LOW TO MID 60S FAR NW TO LOW 70S FAR SRN SC COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...CLEMENT WEATHER ON TAP SATURDAY AS DIMINISHING BUT POSITIVE HEIGHT CHANGES ALOFT ALLOWS DRY AIR TO DOMINATE THE ATMOSPHERIC LAYER FROM 750-500 MB MUCH OF THE WEEKEND START. LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE MAY SPUR MARINE CONVECTION INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE BULK SHOULD REMAIN AT SEA. MOISTURE RETURN BECOMES EVIDENT IN VERTICAL RH PLOTS THROUGH TIME BY EARLY SUNDAY...AS A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT BEGIN TO RISE OUT OF THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE WEAKNESS/GAP. NAM-12 LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGNOSTICATIONS SHOW PWAT VALUES SOARING TO 2.0-2.15 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SWAMPING INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY AMPLE TO FUEL SCATTERED CONVECTION IN DIURNAL HEATING PROCESSES AND SUBSEQUENT SFC BOUNDARY GENERATION. NO SHOCKERS IN MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS...WITH NEAR CLIMO TYPE READINGS OF UPPERS 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES IN THE AFTERNOON AND UPPER 60S TO LOWERS 70S EARLY MORNING...BEACHES 75-85 RANGE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...ALL EYES WILL BE ON TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT WEEK AS SHE MEANDERS SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. UNFORTUNATELY...ERIKA HAS REALLY STRUGGLED TO GET HER ACT TOGETHER AND REMAINS TODAY IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO SHEAR AND MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS BEING THE CASE MODEL SPREAD OF HER EVOLUTION IS MUCH LARGER THAN TYPICAL...AND THUS THE EXTENDED REMAINS A PRETTY BIG QUESTION MARK. WHILE THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A WEAK AND FURTHER WEST SYSTEM...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN UNSCATHED. WHILE THE POSITION OF ERIKA...AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...REMAIN VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...EVEN THE FURTHER SW TRACK SHOWN BY THE GFS/ECM BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL INTO OUR AREA. ANY CLOSER TRACK OR STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD OF COURSE INCREASE THE IMPACTS LOCALLY. NOTE THAT GUIDANCE HAS WIDESPREAD PWAT OVER 2 INCHES WED/THU/FRI THANKS TO LONG TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE CARIBBEAN. WHILE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY FEATURE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION...POSSIBLE AIDED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS SLATED FOR WED- FRI. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BUT WILL RAMP UP POP TO MID-CHC FOR WED-FRI AS EVEN IF ERIKA WEAKENS AND STAYS WELL SW OF THE AREA...A GOOD MOISTURE FETCH SEEMS LIKELY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND CLIMO...BUT MAY FALL SHORT OF NORMAL WED-FRI DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA AS FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS STALLED JUST OFFSHORE. VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SCT/BKN LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 8 KTS. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AT KLBT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE...HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ANY MVFR INTO GOING TAFS ATTM. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 12 KTS AND A GRADUAL INCREASING TREND OF HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW NE WINDS OF AROUND 15 KTS WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM THESE CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MANAGEABLE WEEKEND MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NE WINDS 10-15 KT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT BECOME E-SE NEAR SHORE DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY EVENING RESULTING FROM THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SYNOPTIC WIND DIRECTION WILL BECOME SE 10 KT SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE. SEAS 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE CHOP MOST OF THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED MARINE TSTMS WILL DOT THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...BIG CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS WIND/WAVE ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS LOOKING MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED LOCALLY. WITH ERIKA A WEAKER SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED NOW TO MOVE WELL SW OF THE AREA...DIRECT SWELL AND STRONG WINDS SEEM UNLIKELY. THIS BEING THE CASE...THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP MAY END UP BEING A SE GROUND SWELL OF 9-11 SEC...ESPECIALLY SINCE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM SE TO NE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS SWELL WILL CREATE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT ON MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-3 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OF COURSE...ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THE TRACK OF ERIKA COULD CHANGE THIS...BUT NEEDED TO RAMP SEAS DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM INHERITED AS ANY ADVISORY LEVEL WAVES ARE NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...REK/MBB SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...SGL MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/MBB

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