Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 290000 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 800 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. REDEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLE HEAT WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 600 PM SUNDAY...LATEST NSSL WRF INDICATES SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THRU SUNSET. LATEST WRF INDICATES PLENTY OF CAPE REMAINS AVBL ON THE SEA-WARD SIDE OF THE SEA-BREEZE. LATEST KLTX-88D REFLECTIVITY TRENDS ILLUSTRATE THIS NICELY. AS A RESULT...HAVE UPPED THE POPS TO 30-40 PERCENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THRU SUNSET...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DECREASING TREND THERE- AFTER. IN ADDITION...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC OUTLOOK ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ADJACENT ATL WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL LIKELY OBSERVE CONVECTION ALL NIGHT ALONG OVER THE ATL WATERS...MAINLY ALONG THE GULF STREAM WHERE THE BEST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS TO RESIDE. PREVIOUS.......................................................... AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MIGRATED SLOWLY TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE DRYING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE INTERIOR OF NE SC AND SE NC. HAVE RETAINED ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR TONIGHT ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST WHERE LOCAL CONVERGENCE AND COLUMN MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THE HIGHEST. MEANWHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WERE NOTED UPSTREAM OF THE AREA IN CENTRAL NC. MINIMUMS MAY BE HELD UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO WINDS NEAR SURROUNDING THE FRONT...BUT STILL COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS AS DRIER AIR AIDS IN RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFICIENCY...MAINLY MIDDLE 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER AS THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND WITH MINIMAL FORCING AND EVEN LESS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN...PWS ARE DOWN IN THE 1.25 INCH AREAS...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF CONVECTION. A STRONGER WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE MID LEVELS DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY STRENGTHENS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND INCREASES TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED AND AS THE SHORTWAVE ROLLS BY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY A SLIGHTLY INCREASED POP. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH NOTED AT THE SURFACE. THIS SETUP SHOULD YIELD NEAR SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH THE SEA BREEZE BEARING STORMS ALONG THE COASTAL HALF OF THE CWA AND THE TANDEM TROUGHS PROVIDING OPPORTUNITY FARTHER WEST. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO FLATTEN. THE NORMAL RESULTING DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES MAY BE OFFSET HOWEVER BY A FEW DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH ITS BASE. IF ANYTHING THE HIGHER POPS MAY SHIFT TO NORTHERN ZONES LOCALLY BUT AT THIS TIME THAT SEEMS LIKE TOO FINE A DETAIL SO FAR OUT IN TIME. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FIND A NEW UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS RESULTS IN DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR A CONTINUATION OF SLIGHTLY WARM WEATHER AND A FAIRLY NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE NIGHTTIME LOWS IN PARTICULAR WILL LIKELY SHOW AN UPWARD TREND LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO THE LONG DURATION MOISTURE ADVECTION. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 00Z...ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STALLED FRONT JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA PUSHES OFFSHORE TOMORROW. WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT JUST ON THE CUSP OF OUR FORECAST AREA...LATEST RADAR DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS...THOUGH NOT CREATING ANY RESTRICTIONS ATTM. ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. VFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT PATCHY FOG...POTENTIALLY CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR. ON MONDAY...EXPECT VFR AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH- SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AOB 10 KTS...WITH VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 615 PM SUNDAY...THIS UPDATE WILL BE CONCERNED WITH CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE MAINLAND AND ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY THRU SUNSET. THE CONVECTION WILL BASICALLY WEAKEN AND DIMINISH AS IT MOVES OFF THE MAINLAND AFTER SUNSET. CONVECTION WILL RE-FIRE OVER THE ATL WATERS MAINLY ALONG THE GULF STREAM WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY SPORADICALLY DRIFT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THESE PRE-DAWN MONDAY HRS. AS FOR WINDS...THE MESOSCALE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL RESULT IN A SSW 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT WITHIN THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC TREND WILL RESUME BY LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT....WITH SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT...ALONG WITH THE OCCASIONAL 20 KT GUST. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 4 FT...AND OCCASIONALLY UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6 AND 7 SECONDS. NO GROUND SWELL BEING IDENTIFIED BY THE LOCAL BUOYS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY VIA LATEST LOCAL SWAN AND WAVEWATCH3 MODEL RUNS. PREVIOUS...................................................... AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AS SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FT AND WINDS BELOW 25 KT. A COLD FRONT MAY BRIEFLY SUSTAIN NW WINDS OVER THE NC WATERS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME TO W-SW TONIGHT 10-20 KT KEEPING SEAS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING ALONG THE COAST COULD INSTIGATE A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND MARINERS SHOULD GET A RADAR FIX BEFORE VENTURING OUT TONIGHT. ANY TSTMS WILL MOVE GENERALLY TOWARD THE NE. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS MINIMAL MONDAY. THE WINDS WILL BE DICTATED MOSTLY BY THE SEA BREEZE WITH A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS. BY MONDAY EVENING LOW LEVEL JETTING INCREASES THE FLOW TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE WIND FURTHER...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WITH HEIGHTS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE MONDAY AND THE HIGHER END LATER TUESDAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS IS THE NORM FOR THE TIME OF YEAR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT. THE COAST-PARALLEL COMPONENT WILL MAKE FOR A RANGE IN SEA HEIGHTS NEARSHORE VS OFFSHORE WITH A GENERAL 2 TO 4 FT RANGE EXPECTED. THE OUTER REACHES ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS WILL OCCASIONALLY ATTAIN 5 FT DUE TO THE STEADINESS OF THE FETCH LEADING TO A GRADUAL RISE IN SWELL ENERGY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL

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