Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 211927 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 327 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The cold front that passed to our south will continue to dissipate as high pressure builds into the area and a piedmont trough develops to our west Friday through the weekend. Temperatures will surge back above normal for the weekend, with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms increasing early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Convection as was anticipated is struggling with drier air and the the weak inversion aloft at 550 mb. A few convective towers tried to develop along the sea breeze earlier but struggled mightily. Current visible satellite is showing cumulus development in the counties of Darlington, Florence, Williamsburg, Georgetown, Marlboro, and Marion. But as of 3 PM nothing is developing over the southwest area but areas farther to the south and west where conditions are better convection is firing. Thus will keep a slight chance of thunderstorms for the area mentioned above. Overnight, skies will be mostly clear and lows will fall into the lower 70s inland and the middle 70s at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...High pressure will continue to build over the region. Temperatures will slowly increase and low-level moisture increases also with the high pressure dominating the region. The heat indices will increase through the period with values at or above 105 degrees away from the coast on Saturday and Sunday when heat advisories are expected to be posted for portions of our area. On Saturday the Piedmont trough develops and there will be an slight increase in chances for thunderstorms. Focus for the convection will be along the sea-breeze front and farther to the west with the differential heating of the Carolina Sandhills. Highs on Friday will range from the upper 80s at the beaches to 94 inland. On Saturday, highs will range from the upper 80s on the beaches to 96 inland. Low temperatures will be in the middle 70s each night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Upper level ridge holds on over the Carolinas through early next week before breaking down a bit as a northern stream system moves east and upper level low tracks west from the Atlantic south of the ridge. The main ridge extending in from the mid west will retreat westward and weaken over the southeast but the atlantic ridge will build westward by Tues into mid week next week. The northern stream shortwave will drive a cold front south and east as it tracks across the Great Lakes into New England Monday into Tuesday. This front may reach down into North Carolina come next Wed/Thurs time frame as it gets stretched out from west to east as ridge builds in from east and flattens out. Overall, Bermuda High and Piedmont trough will be the main players in forecast at the sfc, much of the week. The s-sw flow around the Bermuda High will keep a more warm and humid, unstable air mass in place with more in the way of localized convection along sea breeze and trough inland, expected most of the week with not too much in the way of upper level support as ridge holds on. GFS/ECMWF both show an upper level low breaking off from trough to the east over the atlantic and tracking westward...but it should remain to the south of the upper ridge Mon into Tues and should just act to displace one ridge as another builds in. The influence of upper ridge will help to keep above normal temperatures especially Sun/Mon as ridge extends almost directly overhead with limited convective activity. By mid week, the influence of the front to the north and retrogression of ridge extending in from the Midwest should increase chc of convection and clouds across the area which may shave a few degrees off the max temps. Right now, it looks like heat advisory thresholds will continue to be reached Sun through Mon and possibly into Tues over most of the area. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 18Z...VFR conditions to prevail across the CWA throughout the period. cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible this afternoon in vicinity of the terminals so will include a VCTS statement. Winds to remain below 10 kts throughout the afternoon with winds abating overnight after sunset to calm or less than 4 kts. May see some patchy areas of fog and MVFR and will include in a few terminals... mainly inland. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Brief periods of MVFR/IFR from isolated afternoon convection through Monday. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...The front has dissipated and winds are now northeast off the coast and southeast to south as the sea- breeze circulation is now well established near the coast. Wind speeds are still at 5 to 10 knots and seas are running around 3 feet. The buoys are still detecting the 2.5 to 3 ft ground swell with a period of 9 seconds from the southeast along the coast. Do not anticipate a change overnight in the sea heights. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...As the high pressure becomes established the light and variable winds will shift to the southwest by Saturday. Winds speeds will increase from the 5 to 10 knots to around 15 knots by Saturday afternoon. Seas will be 2 to 3 feet on Thursday and increase to 2 to 4 feet by Saturday in response to the increased southwest winds. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...South to southwest winds will continue around the Bermuda High. Winds will generally stay in the 10 to 15 kt range with a slight spike in late aftn into early eve, enhanced by the sea breeze and piedmont trough. Seas will remain 3 ft or less with a continued 8 to 9 sec E-SE swell mixing in. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MAC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.