Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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352 FXUS62 KILM 121855 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 155 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST TODAY SPREADING A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE TONIGHT AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THIS WEEKEND. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. A WARMUP WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL VALUES AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...EXPIRED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT MARLBORO...ROBESON...AND BLADEN WHERE THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN REMAINS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS PRECIP IS LIKELY TO LINGER IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...HENCE THE SHORT EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY. SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR KICKING OFF THE LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE WAVE. PRECIP CHANCES RAPIDLY DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND POST WAVE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO POINT TO LOW CLOUDS LINGERING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AS ARCTIC AIRMASS STARTS SPILLING INTO THE REGION. 850 TEMPS DROP 12C TO 14C FROM THIS EVENING TO SAT MORNING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 20S. STRONG ADVECTION WILL KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF LOWS IN THE 20S COMBINED WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH NEAR DAYBREAK WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RECORD LOWS TO BE SET SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY RECORD LOW HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION ON THE UPWIND SIDE OF A SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUBTLY INCREASING THICKNESSES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. NO PRECIP IS FORECAST...SO THE FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR SET TO INVADE THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS SATURDAY WILL PLUMMET THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING...DROPPING AS LOW AS -12C SOUTHERN ZONES TO -15C NORTHERN COUNTIES. COLD ADVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING USUALLY CREATES HIGHS BELOW GUIDANCE...DESPITE FULL INSOLATION...AND THUS THE MOS NUMBERS OF THE MID 40S WELL SOUTH AND AROUND 40 NORTH ARE LIKELY TOO WARM. INHERITED HAS UNDERCUT THESE VALUES BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS FORECAST WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 35 FAR NORTHERN ZONES...TO ABOUT 42 ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THESE LOW HIGHS AND RAPID COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PERMIT NEAR RECORD LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING: RECORD LOWS (YEAR)/FORECAST FOR 2/14: WILMINGTON: 18 (1968)/18 FLORENCE: 15 (1968)/18 NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 (1955)/19 THESE WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND CHILLS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND DRY- ADIABATIC MIXING WILL KEEP WINDS UP ALL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN FACT MAY BE STRONGER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THAN DURING THE DAY. WINDS OF AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WILL REMAIN GUSTY...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS. BEING 4TH PERIOD WILL NOT HOIST A WIND CHILL ADVISORY YET...BUT EXPECT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA. EVEN COLDER HIGHS ON SUNDAY...AND EVEN THOUGH COLD ADVECTION SHUTS OFF...VERY SHALLOW MIXING AND THE COLD START WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW FREEZING FAR NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S WELL SOUTH. RECORD-LOW MAXIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE AT FLORENCE (RECORD 44) BUT WILL LIKELY BE MISSED AT WILMINGTON (RECORD 29). SUBTLY WARMER LOWS SUNDAY WILL OCCUR THANKS TO SLOWLY DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW...BUILDING CLOUD COVER...AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES. EXPECT MINS SUNDAY NIGHT TO DROP TO AROUND 25-30 DEGREES...WARMEST AT THE SC COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED OFFSHORE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MS VLY. AHEAD OF THIS DEEP TROUGH...STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND OF THE COAST ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. NO PTYPE ISSUES THIS TIME AROUND...BUT GOOD MOIST ADVECTION AND STRONG FORCING SUPPORTS A HIGH QPF EVENT WHICH COULD ENHANCE OR PROLONG ONGOING RIVER FLOODING. TEMPS TUESDAY COULD ACTUALLY RISE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW PASSES OFF TO THE NORTH...WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COAST. BEHIND THIS LOW A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT IT WILL TAKE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO DRIVE TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...CURRENTLY KLBT IS THE TAF WITH THE MOST WINTRY MIX. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 1ST 3 HOURS OF THE FORECAST THEN CLEAR OUT. CEILING AND SKY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH A FLIRT AT THE COAST WITH SOME IFR AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES. AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST PULLS AWAY ALL SITES SHOULD SWITCH TO IFR BETWEEN 02 AND 04 UTC. A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED BY MORNING SATURDAY AND NORTHWEST WIND OF 12 TO 16 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND GUST INCREASING AFTER 13 UTC. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE WAVE OFF THE COAST BECOMES MORE DEFINED. THE LOW WILL EXIT NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENING. DURATION OF LIGHT WINDS WILL BE BRIEF AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES. SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 20 KT ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN WINDS BUT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY WILL CREATE CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15-25 KTS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIVING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-5 FT...WITH ISOLATED 6 FTERS POSSIBLE. THESE ARE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO EASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT A SUBTLE INCREASE WILL BE NOTED VERY LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. SEAS SUNDAY WILL INITIALLY BE 3-5 FT THANKS TO A SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY WIND WAVE...BUT WILL FALL TO 1-2 FT LATE WITH A 10 SEC SE SWELL INCREASING. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE SE STATES...REMAINING WEST OF THE WATERS...BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE INCREASING WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15-25 KTS WHILE VEERING FROM EAST TO SOUTH...AND THEN INCREASING EVEN FURTHER TO 20-25 KTS FROM THE SW THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE...ITS COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BUT WITH STILL ELEVATED SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BUILD VERY RAPIDLY MONDAY FROM 1-2 FT MONDAY MORNING TO 4-7 FT MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 10 FT TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS...BUT THE LONG FETCH AT LEAST PRESENTS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SUCH HIGH SEAS. WAVES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT MUCH OF THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE POOR MARINE CONDITIONS WITH HEADLINES A NEAR CERTAINTY.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... HAVE ISSUED YET ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017. NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DRH TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK

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