Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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417 FXUS62 KILM 221133 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 733 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move offshore early this morning bringing cooler and much drier air into the region. High pressure behind this front will extend down the East Coast through Thursday, maintaining cool and dry weather. A return to seasonable warmth and humidity, along with typical late summer thunderstorm chances, will begin this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 645 AM Monday...Dewpoints are falling as the cold front has pushed off the coast. Forecast appears to be on-track and no significant changes are needed. Discussion from 300 AM follows... An outflow boundary from a convective cluster over the Outer Banks Sunday evening pushed through SE North Carolina shortly before midnight. Due to northwesterly winds behind this boundary, the actual surface cold front is becoming difficult to find but probably lies near the front edge of the tightest packing in the surface dewpoint gradient from near New Bern to Fayetteville to just south of Charlotte. The boundary should sweep cleanly through the area by sunrise with northerly winds advecting drier air southward throughout the day. Weak cool advection behind the front should take our 850 mb temps from +19c yesterday down to +16C to +17C today. Highs should reach the upper 80s to around 90, but with dewpoints 10-15 degrees lower than yesterday our heat indices shouldn`t be that much higher than the actual air temperatures. Warm air above the frontal inversion in the 6000-14000 foot layer should easily cap off surface-based parcels, and no more than scattered flat cumulus and altocumulus are expected. 850 mb temps should fall to around +15C tonight. With the atmospheric column drying out so much (precip water down to 1.25 inches!) we should have fairly good radiational cooling. Lows should fall to 64-68 inland with lower 70s at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...High pressure aloft in the 700-500 mb layer centered over Florida will retrograde along the Gulf Coast Tuesday, then northward across Alabama into western Tennessee by late Wednesday. Our atmosphere will remain quite dry and convectively capped with near-zero PoPs forecast. High temps should range from the upper 80s to around 90 with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s inland and lower 70s near the beaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday...Slightly cool and dry conditions persist through the end of the week as high pressure centered over New England gradually shifts east while maintaining its ridge axis down the coast. Temps Thu will be slightly below climo for both highs and lows, before warming back to seasonable norms on Friday. With PWATS forecast to be just around 1-1.25 inches, mostly sunny conditions without any chance of convection is forecast. During the wknd, the surface high weakens locally but large mid-level ridging expands across the Southeast. This will allow temps to recover to seasonable norms or just above, along with increasing humidity and aftn chances for convection. POP will remain below climo due to the suppressing ridge aloft and lack of deep return flow, but at least SCHC will be carried through the wknd as more typical late-summer weather develops. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 12Z...Expect VFR through the valid TAF period as high pressure builds into the area. Latest observations indicate the cold front has moved offshore, thus allowing for drier and cooler air to infiltrate into the area. North-northeasterly winds this morning around 5 kts will become easterly this afternoon, increasing to near 10 kts, with a few passing mid to high clouds. Into tonight, quiet conditions continue with winds become light and variable. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR expected.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 645 AM Monday...The front is through and winds have shifted to the north offshore and all the way south into the Charleston area. Forecast appears to be on-track and no changes are needed. Discussion from 300 AM follows... A cold front will sweep southward and across the coastal waters early this morning, clearing the area by sunrise. Northerly winds behind the front will persist today, veering northeasterly tonight as the surface high over the Midwest moves into the Mid-Atlantic states. After an initial surge this morning wind speeds should die down to 10 knots or less this afternoon. This should actually be light enough to allow a weak seabreeze to develop at the beaches. Seas currently 2-4 feet, highest near and just east of Cape Fear, should diminish to only 1-2 feet this afternoon. Increasing NE wind should then build seas by about a foot late tonight. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic states will move off the East Coast Tuesday afternoon, but should continue to extend a ridge axis southwestward across the Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Falling atmospheric pressures across the Bahamas and within the vicinity of what may be the remnant circulation of Tropical Depression Fiona east of 70 degrees longitude will help tighten up the pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the ridge. Our surface winds should increase to NE 15 knots with occasional 20 knot gusts Tuesday through Wednesday, with seas building to 3-4 feet. LONG TERM/THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday...High pressure will extend down the coast Thursday before weakening and shifting offshore during Friday. This creates winds shifting slowly from NE at 10-15 kts Thursday, to E/SE at 5-10 kts during Friday. Seas of 3-4 ft will be common Thursday, with the exception being the typical much smaller seas of 1-2 ft in the wave shadowed region SW of Brunswick County. On Friday, as the SE winds develop but speeds weaken, wave heights will become a more uniform 2 ft throughout the coastal waters. && .CLIMATE... As of 300 AM Monday...Wilmington has now tied its all-time record for consecutive days with low temperatures of 70 degrees or warmer established back in 2012. We should make it through midnight tonight remaining above 70 degrees which means we`ll break this record by at least one day. Our forecast low Tuesday morning is 69 degrees which, if correct, would end the string of consecutive days at 57. Wilmington temperature records began in 1874. Wilmington`s Consecutive Days with Low Temperatures 70+ degrees #1 56 days 6/29/2012 to 8/23/2012 #1 56 days 6/27/2016 to 8/21/2016 <--still going! #3 52 days 6/22/1941 to 8/12/1941 #4 48 days 7/ 6/1986 to 8/22/1986 #5 46 days 6/28/1991 to 8/12/1991 && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...SGL MARINE...TRA/JDW CLIMATE...TRA

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