Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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796 FXUS62 KILM 010909 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 409 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Mild and moist south to southwest winds will continue through tonight as a strong cold front approaches the Carolinas from the west. The front will move off the Carolina Coasts and offshore during Thursday morning, basically around daybreak. Cooler and drier Canadian high pressure will infiltrate the area during Thursday through Sunday. Areas of low pressure will affect the area late Sunday thru the first half of next week with clouds and increasing rain chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...A cold front will be moving across the area this morning. The passage of the front will be marked by the arrival of decidedly drier air. However, much cooler air will not filter into the area until the passage of a trough this eve. Still ahead of the front early on, there will be light showers. These showers will end this morning, lastly along the coast, 12-14z. The showers have already ended along and west of Interstate 95. Clearing will arrive before daybreak along and west of Interstate 95 with clearing reaching the immediate coastal communities mid and late morning. High pressure along the Gulf Coast states will build into the area tonight. Skies will be clear. Highs this afternoon will be in the mid and upper 60s to near 70 at the coast. Lows tonight will be in the mid and upper 30s to around 40 at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...High pressure will be reinforced from the NW Friday night into Saturday. The forecast area will remain under the influence of high pressure through the period with a good deal of sunshine. A digging southern stream system will be organizing across the southern plains and western Gulf states, but its impacts will remain to our west and southwest through Saturday night. It will be seasonably cool with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s, with Saturday being the cooler of the two days. Lows will be in the mid and upper 30s Friday night. Clouds may begin to become more prevalent overnight Saturday, so will forecast lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s that night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM Thursday...Models indicate split flow in the mid- upper levels thru early Wed. From the Carolinas southward, this area will be under the influence of sw to wsw upper air flow coming from the slowly eastward moving Mexican cutoff/closed upper Low that will push into southern Tx Mon evening. Some minor timing issues there-after, but for the most part, models open this upper low into a trof, and further weakens it as it lifts northeast into and thru a longwave ridge aligned over the East Coast of the U.S. late Tuesday. It moves, underneath the longwave ridge, to off the Mid-atlantic states Wed. Overall, this pattern suggests more clouds and a slight chance for pcpn initially, then transitions to a possible damming scenario on Mon thru early Wed with a coastal front/trof lurking just off the immediate coast. At this point in time, models do not bring the coastal front/trof onshore. Thus, overall temps this period will remain at or slightly below climo with no big warm-up given this scenario playing out. Unless, the coastal front moves onshore, then a temperature forecast bust will definitely occur. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 06Z...MVFR conditions possible from light to moderate showers located along and ahead of a cold front early this morning. Pcpn, roughly located within a 65 mile wide area, that extends along the coastal Carolinas, will continue to make eastward progress early this morning. MVFR, possibly brief IFR, will occur. By daybreak, the majority of the pcpn should be off both Carolina coasts within the ILM CWA. In it`s wake, MVFR clouds should quickly erode to SKC conditions by midday and continue thru the remainder of this period. SSW-SW 10 to 20 kt winds will veer to the WSW to WNW around 10 kt by or just after daybreak Thu...and continue thruout the day. A secondary CFP or sfc Trof passage will occur during the mid to late evening hours. No clouds expected but winds will veer to the NW at 4 to 6 kt. Extended outlook...Expect mainly VFR. Except, clouds and pcpn will return at the end of this period with some MVFR/IFR conditions possible late Sunday thru Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...A cold front will move across the waters by mid morning. The wind direction will shift from SW to W with its passage. The passage of a trough this eve will shift winds to the NW and then N overnight. High pressure will build into the area tonight. The highest wind speeds will be early in the day ahead of the front, up to 20 to 25 kt. Wind speeds will be around 15 kt later this morning and through tonight. Seas will subside sharply through the period. Seas will be 5 to 8 ft this morning and 2 to 4 ft this afternoon and tonight. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...High pressure will be the main influence across the waters. The wind direction will remain from the NW or N through the period, trending to the NE toward sunrise Sunday. Wind speeds will be 10 to 15 kt Friday, but as the pressure gradient briefly tightens in response to reinforcing high pressure from the northwest, wind speeds will trend higher, 15 to 20 kt Friday night into Saturday morning before returning to 10 to 15 kt Saturday afternoon and night. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft with perhaps some 4 ft seas late Friday night into Saturday for portions of the outermost waters. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Thursday...For this 2 day period, winds and seas will overall be in a diminishing/subsiding trend respectively from Sunday into the 1st half of Monday. For the 2nd half of Monday, models do want to instigate a damming scenario with sfc high ridging south-southwest across the Central Carolinas from the NE states. And the development of a coastal front/trof just offshore from the ILM CWA coasts. At this point, models bring the front/trof into the local waters late Monday into Tuesday, but not onshore and inland. Nevertheless, this will make forecasting wind directions a hair puller for the latter end of this period. The sfc pg will start out loose but tighten-some at the end of this period. Thus results in wind speeds increasing especially on the offshore side of the coastal front late Mon into Tue. Significant seas will mainly be dominated and a function of wind driven waves, especially at the end of this period. Eventhough, latest Wavewatch3 shows SCA thresholds being met Monday night, will hold off given the too many ifs that could occur preventing this SCA possibility. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ254-256. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this morning for AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...DCH

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