Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS62 KILM 151736
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1236 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017
A low pressure system from the Gulf states will approach today
bringing a chance of rain followed by a cooling and drying trend
Thursday and Friday. A fair day next Saturday may be followed by a
chance of rain Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure will build
in late Sunday through Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 10 AM Wednesday...Weak low pressure, currently over west-
central SC, will move east today, accompanied by a cold front.
Showers have been expanding in coverage this morning as the
low and associated front move closer to the area. Widespread
shower coverage is expected with potential for embedded
thunderstorms during the next several hours. The low will be
quick to move east and should be headed off the coast by mid
afternoon. Although surface based instability has been limited
by cloud cover, low level convergence along the front is
generating some deeper convection. Convection is tapping into
moisture being transported north by 45-50kt low level jet ahead
of the front. Although unlikely, cannot rule out an isolated
strong or severe storm given the strength of the low level jet.
Latest high resolution guidance has the front pushing off the
coast 18-19Z which may actually be a little slow given the
fronts movement over the last hour or so. Rainfall will linger
behind the front for an hour or two but by early evening the
entire forecast area should be drying out as cold and drier air
starts to spread in from the northwest.
Temps will peak by midday and western areas have likely already
seen today`s high temp. Temps may rebound in western areas as
skies clear and the sun comes out later this afternoon but temps
in the afternoon will struggle to reach mid 50s.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Wednesday...The Eastern 1/3rd of the U.S. including
the ILM CWA, will remain under a longwave upper trof this
period. It`s north to south trof axis will remain east of the
forecast area. Thus, these 2 short term days will be benign
weather-wise with no POPs and skies mostly clear with occasional
jet stream cirrus moving overhead. Initially, CAA on Thu will
become neutral by aftn. Cyclonic sfc flow will give way to
ridging from the Gulf Coast States by Thu aftn and persist thru
Friday as the center of the High moves east across Florida and
into the offshore waters. Temps will remain below normal thru
Thu night and moderate to at or slightly above normal Fri into
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday... Moisture will increase from west to east
across the area Saturday in a warm advection regime beneath
increasing PVA and height falls. Eventually this coupled ascent will
bring some overnight light rainfall. The shortwave strengthens
slightly as it moves offshore Sunday and a building ridge to its
west allows it to accelerate. The latter will allow for a
continuation of above normal temperatures not only Sunday but into
Monday as well. Tuesday remains rain-free and mild, though models
are in disagreement as to whether the warmth-sponsoring ridge will
be strengthening or weakening. The local ramification of the ridge`s
strength will be the degree to which we are above climatology.
Models seem to be trending slower with the system moving out of
Texas into the Gulf so a stronger ridge in the east appears to be
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 18Z...Squall will exit coast by 18z. NW-N winds, gusty at
times will prevail through afternoon. Light and moderate rain
and IFR ceilings will linger however through 20Z before we begin
to see best clearing. Clearing and drying trend after 20Z with
SKC to BKN250 expected overight, with WNW to NW winds overnight
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Primarily VFR but look for gusty W and NW
winds Thursday in wake of a departing low pressure system.
-- End Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 10 AM Wednesday...SCA continues with increasing southerly
flow and building seas maintaining hazardous conditions through
tonight. Front will move across the waters later this afternoon
with strong offshore flow, due to combination of pinched
gradient and cold advection, developing behind it. Timing of
frontal passage may end up being a little earlier if the faster
progression of the front observed within the last hour
continues. Otherwise forecast remains on track.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Wednesday...Sca threshold wind and seas early Thu
will quickly drop to SCEC criteria during the morning...and
further drop during Thu afternoon. This in response initially to
CAA surge combined with a tightened sfc pg. The cyclonic NW
flow will lessen by late Thursday with sfc high pressure ridging
in from the Gulf coast states Thu night thru Friday Night.
Eventhough, the center will move east across Florida and
offshore it`s east coast, ridging from it will continue to
affect the area waters. Winds and seas will be diminishing and
subsiding respectively late Thu thru Fri with the end result of
wind speeds around 10 kt and seas around 2 ft at their lowest.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Things look pretty quiet for the long
term. On Saturday there will be a few centers of high pressure
across the Southeast, with the most well formed one off the
Atlantic coast. This will favor west or southwest winds locally
and should keep speeds at around 10 knots. Saturday night into
Sunday an upper level feature will move east across the area.
Initially the surface reflection of this feature will be very
weak but it should strengthen slightly off the coast just enough
to turn winds to the northwest. Most zones will see roughly 2
to 3 ft seas through the period.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Thursday for AMZ250-252-