Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 020249 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1049 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA BEFORE STALLING NEARBY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND SOME WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...ACTIVE CONVECTION APPEARS TO FINALLY BE DYING DOWN ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE AND MORE CAPPED OFF DUE TO THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS PLUS THE 18Z GFS SUGGESTING WE MAY SEE CONVECTION JUMP EASTWARD INTO HORRY COUNTY AND THE INTERIOR CAPE FEAR COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA AFTER 3-4 AM EDT. WHILE THE AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS CLOSE TO THE COAST CONTINUED MOISTENING OF AT AND ABOVE 850 MB WILL OPEN THIS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...SO I HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL (20-30%) POPS FROM MYRTLE BEACH NORTHWARD ACROSS WHITEVILLE AND ELIZABETHTOWN LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS INLAND SHOULD KEEP SKY COVER FIRMLY IN THE "MOSTLY CLOUDY" CATEGORY OVERNIGHT. ALONG THE COAST CURRENTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM BLOWOFF CIRRUS...BUT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT WILL ADD TO THIS. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXCEPT WARMER ON THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING THE CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TO DRIFT EAST...PERHAPS REACHING THE APPALACHIANS WED AND WED NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DRIVE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD BE IMPACTED. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS NOT CERTAIN...EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WHEN INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST. ONCE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...THEY WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE MID AND LATE EVE. THUS...WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THIS CONVECTION...BECAUSE OF ITS SLOW MOVEMENT...WILL BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ENHANCED AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IN BANDS/LINES...WILL LIKELY TRAIN OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS AND PERHAPS SOME MINOR FLOODING. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS. MANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS IS THE CASE UPSTREAM TODAY. LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SHOULD LESSEN THE RISK FOR STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY LEAD TO A DAMAGING WET MICROBURST OR TWO. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER INLAND AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY 90 DEGREE READINGS EITHER DAY GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S THROUGHOUT. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE AREA. INITIALLY THE REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP AND LINGER OVER THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL REINFORCE THE RESIDUAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE INCLUDE A BOUNDARY LINGERING ALONG THE COAST AND WAVERING INLAND FROM TIME TO TIME THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THIS FEATURE BASICALLY WASHES OUT ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVERALL THE HIGHEST POPS OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS THE STRONGEST AND THE FRONT MOVES INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE. CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY VALUES FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY TRENDING DOWN TO GOOD CHANCE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 00Z...A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KFLO/KLBT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH VFR AT THE COASTAL SITES. OVERNIGHT...MVFR/POTENTIAL IFR OVERNIGHT GIVEN LINGERING LOW CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG. VFR ON TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SW TO NE ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS...WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO CONVECTION AT KFLO/KLBT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE INLAND SITES REMAIN QUIET WITH VFR. OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY INLAND. THIS WITH LINGERING LOW CIGS...AS NOTED BY FCST SOUNDINGS...COULD SEE MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ON TUESDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASES. ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY... A COLD FRONT IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD STILL BE INLAND FROM THE COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WIND DIRECTIONS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KT. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET (HIGHEST NORTH OF CAPE FEAR) ARE STILL ALMOST PURELY SOUTHEAST SWELL AT 8-9 SECONDS PERIOD. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE APPARENTLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE MUCH OF A SHORTER PERIOD CHOP. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT...FROM THE N AND W...WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TUE NIGHT AND WED AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE BECOMES LESS OF AN INFLUENCE. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ILL DEFINED LATE WEEK. VARIED WIND DIRECTIONS THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. ALSO...VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL OCCUR IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS PERIOD. SSW TO SW WINDS WILL DOMINATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUE WITH MORE VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS LIKELY TUE NIGHT INTO WED. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE ON SE AND THEN S DURING THE DAY WED AND WED NIGHT. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST WED NIGHT...UP TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 4 FT WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WILL OCCUR IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE AT THE MERCY OF THE WAVERING FRONT THAT INITIALLY IS OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL MOVE INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE FLOW AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP THURSDAY WITH THE SAME PROGRESSION OF EVENTS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN USUAL IN THE WIND DIRECTION DUE TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT HOVERING AROUND TEN KNOTS. SEAS ARE MOSTLY 2-3 FEET WITH AN OCCASIONAL FOUR FOOTER OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL

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