Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 142349 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 649 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Relatively cooler high pressure will extend into the Carolinas through the weekend. A warming trend will take place Tuesday through Thursday in south winds ahead of another cold front. Rain chances will ramp up late next week as the front stalls, followed by a low pressure system from the Gulf states. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 245 PM Saturday...Stratus deck steadily eroding from the south is allowing temperatures to break the 60 mark in many places, which is a bit above guidance. Our very northern-most counties may yet completely break from the cloud cover, with most places seeing a welcome bit of sun for the remainder of this afternoon. High pressure wedging SW along the Appalachians will keep a weak back-door cold front stalled to our south through the daylight hours, although guidance hints that it may lift back north overnight as a series of weak disturbances move along the front. While it is possible some places may experience a light sprinkle or misting from this overnight, the most likely scenario is we will remain dry with cloud cover and patchy fog re-developing across the forecast area. Cloud cover and a brief shot of WAA following the northward-moving front will keep lows elevated in the mid to upper 40s, or about 10 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Saturday...Although confidence is low regarding placement, it looks like the old back-door front will continue to waver about over the eastern Carolinas. Weak associated lift and continued low-level mositure advection will keep us in and out of clouds through the period, with the off chance of a few sprinkles or light showers. QPF is expected to be minimal, with most places staying dry. A weak wedge-like pattern resulting from this setup will allow a cool NE flow to develop by Sunday afternoon, with daytime temperatures dropping back around climo on Monday. Extensive cloud cover will help keep lows elevated in the mid to upper 40s though for both nights. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 245 PM Saturday...The mid level pattern will feature a split flow initially with a transition into a broader western trough and eastern ridge by the end of the period. For our area weak systems will accompany this flow and expect a kind of unsettled albeit warm period. The first system is a cold front Wednesday that lacks much push to the south and sets up residence west to east across the area. A slightly stronger mid level system will move across the area late Thursday and Friday and the highest pops are forecast for this period. Trying to find a period or two where we can remove pops but with some timing differences among the guidance it has proven all but impossible. Expect warm temperatures throughout the period with more highs in the 70s at least early on. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 00Z...Difficult forecast on tap for the valid TAF period as confidence remains low regarding the potential for fog and low cigs to create MVFRIFRLIFR. Disagreement continues between latest guidance as the primary factor that will decipher the extent of flight restrictions will be the amount of saturation still available within the atmospheric column. For now, have trended with the previous forecast and a blend of the both the NAM and GFS. Light winds will continue overnight with SCT/BKN low cigs. Anticipate areas of fog to develop, and this along with low cigs will create MVFR/marginal IFR. After daybreak, any lingering low cigs will gradually disperse, from IFR to MVFR. West-northwesterly winds Sunday morning around 5 to 10 kts will become northeasterly into Wednesday afternoon. Extended Outlook...Stratus/fog possible each morning through Tuesday. Cold front expected Wednesday will be accompanied by showers and MVFR. Otherwise expect VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 PM Saturday...A weak pressure pattern will persist as a cold front remains stalled over our southern waters this afternoon. This front may lift north across the waters overnight. NE winds of 10 to 15 kts this afternoon will drop to around 10 kts tonight, with seas of 3 to 4 ft this afternoon subsiding to 2 to 3 ft overnight. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Saturday...High pressure centered to the north will extend south across the waters through the short term, keeping winds generally northerly and in the 10 to 15 kt range through the period. Seas will range right around 3 ft. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 PM Saturday...Overall expect a southerly flow Tuesday into early Thursday as what is left of yet another wedge scenario quickly dissipates. Wind speeds will reach a maximum of 15-20 knots Wednesday afternoon as a cold front moves closer from the northwest. This front moves south Thursday and essentially dissipates with the wind fields much weaker but maintaining a southerly component. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL

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