Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 240518 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1218 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST...MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND A SMALL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP IN BEHIND THE LOW AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST DURING SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...MAIN OBJECTIVE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO DAYTIME SATURDAY CONTINUES WITH HOW FAR INLAND THE SURFACE COASTAL FRONT/TROF GETS PULLED INLAND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL UPPER TROF...ONE WOULD THINK NOT TOO FAR INLAND. GIVEN THE LATEST POSITION AND PROGGED MOVEMENT OF THIS INTENSIFYING LOW AND COASTAL FRONT WHICH HAS PARTIALLY MOVED INLAND...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE THIS INLAND TREND. WILL LIMIT ITS FURTHEST INLAND MOVEMENT...KEEPING IT EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS TO DOMINATE THE OVERNIGHT... WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE POSSIBLE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL FRONT/TROF. TEMPS AFTER THE COASTAL FRONTS PASSAGE INLAND WILL RISE INTO THE 60S...WEST OF THE COASTAL FRONT...TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ALL OF THIS SAYS...TONIGHTS TEMPS WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND OR SLOWLY RISE ELSEWHERE. IN ESSENCE...TONIGHTS LOW TEMPS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED BETWEEN 6 PM AND 8 PM THIS EVENING. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER...FROM WILMINGTON SOUTHWARD. THIS A RESULT OF THE HIGHER TIDES THAN NORMAL COMPOUNDED WITH RUNOFF FROM THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS. TIDE HEIGHTS TO REACH 5.8 FT WHICH IS 0.3 FT ABOVE FLOOD THRESHOLDS. IT SHOULD DROP BELOW FLOOD THRESHOLDS BY 2 AM SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...TAIL END OF THE RAIN EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAILING OFF THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. A RAPIDLY DRYING COLUMN WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. SPC KEEPS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WX IN THE FORM OF TORNADOES OR DAMAGING WINDS FOR A THIN STRIP ALONG THE NC COAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS RETURNS OVERNIGHT ON SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES SE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS IS A MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...BUT EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE WE CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NC COUNTIES. COLUMN REMAINS TOO WARM FOR FROZEN PRECIP DURING THE SHORT TERM. A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE GIVES US HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND RIGHT AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE AN ATYPICAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR SATURDAY DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE HIGHS OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS EARLY MONDAY WILL CARRY AN ARCTIC FRONT EAST ACROSS AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE COAST EARLY MON AFTN WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE RIDING RIGHT OVER CAPE FEAR. THIS SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEAVING A LOW END CHC OF PCP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTN. BY EVENING PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA IN DEEP N-NW FLOW AS WE TAP INTO AN ARCTIC AIR MASS. LOOKS LIKE 850 TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW 0C FROM MON EVE UNTIL THURS MORNING. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL COME ON TUES AS 850 TEMPS REACH AS LOW AS -7 C. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S MOST PLACES BOTH TUES AND WED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEA BOARD KEEPING POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS THROUGH TUES BEFORE THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT COMPLETELY IN REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AND DRY AIR. PCP WATER VALUES DROP DOWN FROM CLOSE TO A HALF INCH ON MON DOWN TO NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR WED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON THURS WILL ALLOW AIR MASS TO MODIFY BRIEFLY AND WARM SLIGHTLY BACK TOWARD NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 50S BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY KNOCKING TEMPS BACK DOWN AGAIN.THIS FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE AND SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN PCP. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND IFR/LIFR CIGS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE WARM FRONT IS CONTINUING TO PUSH INLAND...AND CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR/VFR ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. IF IT REACHES KFLO/KLBT...THESE TERMINALS COULD ALSO SEE TEMPO IMPROVEMENT FROM LIFR/IFR TO MVFR. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK BETWEEN OUR COASTAL AND INLAND TAF SITES...WHICH MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING WIND FORECAST. EXPECT MAINLY S-SW WINDS 10-20 KT AT THE COAST...BECOMING GUSTY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS GROUPS FOR THE COAST AS 2000 FT WINDS WILL REACH 50 KT EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE A PERIOD OF VRBL WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT...FOLLOWED BY W-NW WINDS BY DAYBREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT CONTINUED -RA/RA OVERNIGHT AS PCPN SHOULD LOWER CIGS TO IFR/LIFR EVERYWHERE BY MORNING. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TO MVFR...POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL MIDDAY AT THE COASTAL SITES. BY 18Z ANY LINGERING PCPN SHOULD BE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. GUSTY NW WINDS 15-25 KT WILL FOLLOW DURING THE DAY BEHIND THE LOW...SUBSIDING TO 5-10 KT AFTER DARK. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON SUN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. VFR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS TUE/WED. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1100 PM FRIDAY...GALE WARNING HAS BEEN RAISED FOR ALL OF THE ILM COASTAL WATERS...AND IS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON SATURDAY. THE POSITIONING AND PROGGED WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE COASTAL FRONT/TROF ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...HAS BEEN THE PROBLEM CHILD. AT THIS TIME...THE COASTAL FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED ONSHORE WITH ITS FURTHER INLAND PROGRESSION HAVING SLOWING DOWN. AT THIS POINT... PROGGED WINDS AND SEAS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE WHEN COMPARED TO VARIOUS MARINE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING...THE ILM COASTAL WATERS WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE-S...AND FURTHER VEER FROM S TO SW BY DAYBREAK SAT. THE SFC LOW IS NOW PROGGED TO INTENSIFY BELOW 1000MB BY DAYBREAK SAT AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST TO THE ATL WATERS OFF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FURTHER TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG THAN WHAT WAS THOUGHT EARLIER. THIS FURTHER TIGHTENING WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS...BOTH INDICATE STRONG WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE DECK...BETWEEN 40 AND 50+ KT DURING THE PRE-DAWN SAT HOURS AND CONTINUING PARTIALLY INTO DAYLIGHT SATURDAY. WOULD EXPECT SOME MIXING OF THESE HIGHER SPEEDS TO THE OCEAN SFC...ESPECIALLY WITH CONVECTION IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS OVERNIGHT WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO THE 7 TO 12 FOOT RANGE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMPLETELY DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH NO APPRECIABLE GROUND SWELL PRESENT. DOMINATING PERIODS WILL RUN 6 TO 8 SECONDS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS TURN OFFSHORE AND LIMIT FETCH. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM PASSES OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THEN. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY MONDAY WITH A DEEP COLD NW TO N FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH MID WEEK. SHOULD SEE GUSTY NW WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS. SEAS AROUND 3 TO 5 FT WILL KICK SEAS UP BRIEFLY BUT THE OFF SHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME THROUGH TUES AS WINDS VEER MORE TO THE NORTH AND GRADIENT SLACKENS...BUT A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AND DRY AIR WILL COME TUES NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH WED. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS AGAIN TUES NIGHT INTO WED WITH SEAS APPROACHING SCA THRESHOLDS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ107. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...BJR/RJD

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