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385
FXUS62 KILM 121807
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
207 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Fairly typical summertime weather expected across the eastern
Carolinas this week.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Visible satellite imagery as well as a good old-fashioned step
outside shows that cumulus clouds are only minimally
agitated/vertical along the seabreeze. Convection is still expected
to fire in an isolated fashion (underway already near MHX),
especially  given the strong instability present. Mid level lapse
rates are abysmal and shear is non-existent so no storm organization
expected. Rain-free conditions tonight with muggy dewpoints again in
the mid 70s. Some guidance has a little fog but it may only be of
aviation concerns. The Piedmont trough may sharpen slightly heading
into Sunday while a subtle mid level ridge builds overhead turning
500mb flow to the north. The seabreeze will have a slightly harder
time pushing inland, the end result being low end chc POPs area-
wide as the afternoon warms into the low to mid 90s.
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Mid level ridging will more or less be the feature of
note for the beginning of the work week. Good convective coverage is
expected during the afternoon and evening hours although pops seem
to have incrementally decreased. Highs will be in the lower 90s
Monday then slightly cooler Tuesday with overnight lows in the lower
to mostly middle 70s.
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.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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There appears to be some subtle changes or trends this
afternoon with the extended forecast. Pops remain high early on then
trend downward by the end of the week as the mid level ridge moves
closer to an overhead position. Temperatures seemingly nice for this
time of the year with highs near 90 and lows in the lower to middle
70s trend up slowly once again via the positioning of the mid level
ridge.
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.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Another afternoon with minimal thunderstorm coverage, especially by
July standards. Most of the activity will be south of the area, so
FLO may have the best chance to see lowered categories. Along the
coast the seabreeze will yield isolated coverage at best. The lower
confidence comes with tonight`s fog potential. But given that we are
in a persistence pattern feel that the foggier solutions are
erroneous, an idea supported by probabilistic guidance. Perhaps
patches of MVFR inland will be possible especially should it rain
today near a terminal.

Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible
each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early
morning fog/stratus.
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.MARINE...
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Through Sunday...
Surface gradient weakens gradually through the period as the
Piedmont trough both sharpens and spreads east a bit closer to
the coast by Sunday. Wind speeds will be capped at 10kt and tend
to stay SWrly with some variability at times. Swell energy has
abated and the wind waves will obviously be minimal for seas
that will settle to 2 ft.

Sunday Night through Thursday...
The typical synoptic summer pattern will be in place
through the period for the marine community. Winds will be from the
south/southwest in a range of 10-15 knots with significant seas of
2-4 feet.
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 &&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...SHK/MBB