Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 031636 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1236 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STALLED FRONT AND UPPER LOW LINGER OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY CROSS THE COAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1236 PM WEDNESDAY...NO MONUMENTAL CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. RAIN-COOLED AIR AND CLOUD COVER HAS RESULTED IS VERY LITTLE NEW CONVECTIVE INITIATION WHILE STRATIFORM DEBRIS RAIN SPREADS NORTH ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR. ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS EVEN WITHOUT INSOLATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE STRENGTH MAY BE SUPPRESSED BY THE LOW SURFACE-BASED CAPES. WILL RETAIN HIGH SHOWER POP VALUES WITH ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE WITH LITTLE SUNSHINE IF ANY EXPECTED. AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WHILE A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE EDGES SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE COLUMN NEARLY SATURATED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WITH P/W VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND CLOSER TO 1.50 INCHES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK COOL POOL ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH THE MOIST COLUMN. MULTIPLE ONGOING BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. QPF TOTALS OVER THE NEAR TERM AROUND 1 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS LIKELY. SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG WET MICRO-BURSTS. LOCAL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD IN THE STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS. SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL HELP KEEP A LID ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH FORECAST MAXIMUMS TODAY UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FEATURE THRERFORE POPS WILL BE HIGHEST THURSDAY IN THE LIKELY RANGE. SCALED BACK TO GOOD CHANCE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY WITH CHANCE INLAND. I DID ADJUST TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FRIDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE WEAKLY FORCED AS THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES IS WELL TO THE NORTH DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A ZONAL PATTERN BEYOND THIS. THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF POPS...PRIMARILY ON A DIURNAL BASIS EACH DAY. SURFACE FEATURES ARE WEAK AS WELL WITH HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY THEN A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BRIEF TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY AROUND CLIMATOLOGY WARMING A FEW DEGREES LATER IN THE PERIOD AS A SLIGHT WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS ADDED TO THE WINDS. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...A BAND OF HEAVY PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO ILM AROUND 12-13Z...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE MYRTLES. NEEDLESS TO SAY CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE GOING TO BOUND AROUND A LOT. THE PREDOMINATE IFR CONDITIONS WILL STAY INLAND...HOWEVER HEAVY PRECIP AT ANY TIME COULD DROP VISIBILITIES TO A COUPLE OF MILES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY...PERHAPS SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GRADIENT IS WEAK HOWEVER AND A BETTER DESCRIPTION OF TODAY`S WINDS WOULD BE VARIABLE. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES TONIGHT...LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1236 PM WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE WINDS 10 KTS GUSTS TO 15 KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A VERY SLOW-MOVING AND WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MAY MOVE ALONG THE COAST OR OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL STAY IN THEIR CURRENT 2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE EXTENSIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA ESE 2 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEFINE THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT THE SEA BREEZE AND CONVECTION WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISMS. SYNOPTICALLY A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN WILL WARRANT NORTHEAST WINDS OUTSIDE OF THESE FEATURES. SEAS REMAIN CAPPED AT 1-3 FEET. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...SYNOPTIC FORCING LOOK A LITTLE STRONGER FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE DIRECTION INTACT A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. STILL THE FLOW WILL REMAIN AT THE MERCY OF THE SEABREEZE AND AT LEAST THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION. SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 1-3 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DL

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