Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 061050 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 650 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED AT THE COAST. DRIER AIR ON TUESDAY SHOULD REDUCE THE NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WEAKENED. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE RISK THROUGH MID MORNING LARGELY CONFINED TO THE CAPE FEAR AREA. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE TODAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT LIFTS TO THE NE AND WEAKENS. THE BRUNT OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BYPASS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE NW AND N. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST AREA WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT TO OUR N WILL LIFT BACK TO THE N. MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING TROUGHINESS TO OUR W TODAY. THEN THERE IS THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE DEVELOPING AND SLUGGISHLY MOVING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHEST AT THE COAST WITH THE AIRMASS JUST A LITTLE DRIER AS YOU MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND TRAIL THE POPS BACK TO SMALL CHANCE WELL INLAND. LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD WANE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP A LINGERING RISK AT THE COAST WHERE NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE MAY BUILD BACK ONTO THE COAST ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH MAINLY MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THESE TEMPS ARE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME STRUNG OUT VORTICITY AND MOISTURE OVER THE WILL RUN ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS IT BUILDS WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP OVER 1.8 INCHES IN THIS AREA. THE MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW GREATEST MOISTURE ABOVE H30 AND THEREFORE THINK THERE WILL BE CIRRUS STREAMING UP THROUGH THE AREA BUT NOT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHWRS/TSTMS. OVERALL COUNTING ON SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS AND SOME DIURNALLY FORCED CU AND AN ISOLATED TO SCT SHWRS DURING THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OR FURTHER INLAND ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BY FRI IT WILL BE SPRAWLED FROM WEST TO EAST EXTENDING FROM TEXAS EAST OVER TO BERMUDA. LOOKS LIKE H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURS INTO FRI WITH A FALLING TREND TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD. THIS WILL INHIBIT ANY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AND KEEP LOCALIZED CU DEVELOPMENT AND CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG SEA BREEZE AND FURTHER INLAND ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT WITH A GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. THE MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW SHORTWAVE RIDING BY OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WED NIGHT INTO THURS WITH SFC TROUGH SHIFTING EAST. THIS MAY ACT TO SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND STEER ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS OR STORMS EAST TOWARD THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPS AS RIDGE BUILDS AND HEIGHTS RISE...WITH PLENTY OF MID SUMMER SUNSHINE TO HELP. WITH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES...HEAT INDICES WILL REACH ABOVE 100 DEGREES AND EXPECT SOME SPOTS TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY FRI AND SAT. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE BUILDS FAR ENOUGH WEST WITH STRONGER NW WINDS DEVELOPING ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH AND MAY DRIVE A BOUNDARY SOUTH. THIS MAY ACT TO SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH OR MAKE THEM MORE VARIABLE AND MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING FOR THE MOST PART...WITH PERHAPS A FEW COMING ASHORE AROUND BRUNSWICK COUNTY. THE HRRR MODEL DOES NOT DEPICT TOO MANY SHOWERS TODAY...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME ALONG THE RESULTANT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TODAY...SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...S TO SSW WINDS WILL REACH UP TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AS THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND... HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL JETTING ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KT SHOULD PREVENT WINDS FROM DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS...REACHING 4 FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND UP TO 5 FT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY BEYOND 12 NM. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. A DECENT LONGER PERIOD SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES TO PRODUCE SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH MID WEEK. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/ AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH THURS INTO FRI. A SHORTWAVE MAY ACT TO DRIVE A TROUGH EAST AND COULD HELP TO VEER WINDS SLIGHTLY TO A MORE W-SW DIRECTION BRIEFLY BUT OVERALL EXPECT SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A LONGER PERIOD UP TO 9 SEC SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. EXPECT A SPIKE IN WINDS AND WIND CHOP EACH AFTN AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DL

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