-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 010459
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1259 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will waver along the coast through this
weekend, with shower and thunderstorm chances becoming confined
to the immediate coast. Weak high pressure will build in with
drier weather forecast early next week. Hurricane Matthew will
move into the Bahamas by Wednesday, bringing increasing waves and
a heightened rip current risk to the beaches.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1 AM Saturday...No changes to the forecast with the latest
update. Previous discussion follows:

The surface cold front moved less than 100 miles over the past 24
hours and is now located from just east of Charleston, SC up
through Marion, Sc to just west of Lumberton, NC. The boundary
should get a gentle shove to the east tonight as surface pressures
rise by 1-2 millibars across Georgia and western South Carolina.
By late tonight the front should slip off the coast allowing
westerly to northwesterly winds to develop around sunrise Saturday
morning.

Elevated instability as high as 1000 J/kg continues to exist along
the coast. Although no substantial upper disturbances are progged
to rotate across the area overnight, southerly flow off the very
warm Atlantic could always bring in an isolated convective cluster
overnight. One tiny shower has recently developed near Orton
Plantation in eastern Brunswick County, indicating the airmass
aloft still has enough moisture to support at least an isolated
shower. Focus should primarily be on new development over the
coastal waters overnight.

Low-level wind speeds are not particularly impressive this
evening, and this adds an interesting wrinkle to the forecast.
When a weak synoptic front moves in at night when the boundary
layer is strongly decoupled, any airmass change or wind shift with
the front can be absent within the boundary layer. This means
surface temperature/dewpoint/wind speeds may not show change with
the front, although conditions 500 or 1,000 feet aloft may change
more abruptly. Also, with drying conditions aloft but plenty of
boundary layer moisture remaining, patchy fog is in the forecast.

Radiational cooling will become quite good, especially away from
the clouds in coastal SE North Carolina overnight, and lows should
fall to 58-61 near and west of I-95. Lows near the coast will
remain significantly warmer, perhaps even near 70 at the beaches.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 345 PM Friday...Similar pattern Saturday and Sunday but the
moisture plume looks to shift slightly eastward, potentially pushing
the bulk of deeper moisture offshore. Still with heating in the 80s
and the plume edge streaming S to N along or near the coast, expect
isolated showers or a storm remains possible for eastern zones. Far
interior zones are apt to experience very nice and mild early fall
weather free of precipitation, with highs in the lower to mid 80s
and lows around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 PM Friday...Into next week, a ridge of high pressure
will build in along the eastern seaboard as a closed upper low
moves into the New England area on Monday. However, low level
moisture remains available across portions of the area, and thus
have kept the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms
throughout the period, mainly along the coast. Otherwise,
conditions will remain fairly quiet with periods of cloud cover.
In regards to Hurricane Matthew, now a major hurricane, the track
remains uncertain at this time as disagreement between the latest
guidance continues. For this forecast package, will keep with the
potential for local marine areas to observe affects from this
system, as we continue to monitor this system closely.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 00Z...The bulk of the showers and storms have ended for the
night, though there remains the small possibility of a shower or
storm at coastal terminals tonight.  That chance is about 1 in 5 so
shra will not be included in the terminals.  Of bigger concern
for tonight may be lingering low level moisture with drier air
aloft working in from the west.  This could allow for the
development of stratus and fog, especially at the coastal
terminals. For now, fog has been left out of MYR and CRE where
southerly winds of 5 to 10 kt could preclude its development but
stratus is possible. It is also possible that LBT could see a little
MVFR fog unless lower dewpoints work in from the south and west soon.

After sunrise, conditions should become VFR by 15Z.  There is a 1 in
5 chance of showers and storms again, mainly along the coast.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Primarily VFR. Isolated to scattered afternoon
showers through much the period, although limited in strength and
coverage due to dry air aloft.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1 AM Saturday...No changes to the forecast with the latest
update. Previous discussion follows:

The actual surface cold front is still inland, extending from
just east of Charleston, SC to near Marion, SC and Lumberton, NC.
South winds 10-12 kt will turn more westerly late tonight as the
front slides off the coast. By daybreak Saturday wind directions
may actually be northwesterly at the beaches -- when`s the last
time we saw that? Seas are currently 2-3 feet west of Frying Pan
Shoals, and around 4 feet along and east of Frying Pan Shoals,
mainly in a 5-6 second wind wave. There is also a small
contribution from an 11-second easterly swell. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible overnight, especially after
midnight as the front approaches the coast.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Friday...A manageable marine period with winds mainly
light, S on Saturday becoming N-NE Sunday afternoon over the waters.
Wave heights will increase a foot or two Sunday as SE swell waves
arrive from Matthew, in 11-13 second intervals. Isolated showers
and TSTMS this period so radar updates are recommended.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 PM Friday...North-northeasterly winds will continue
through the period, increasing to around 15 to 20 kts Tuesday into
Wednesday. Wednesday evening, winds increase to around 25 kts. As
for seas, 2 to 4 ft on Monday will increase to 4 to 6 ft,
especially in the outer waters. Things may change as we continue
to monitor the track of Hurricane Matthew, but will continue to
monitor swell from the system.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...RAN
MARINE...REK/TRA/SGL