Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 280816 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 416 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TWO TYPES OF WEATHER PHENOMENA TO DEAL WITH THIS TIME FRAME THAT COULD RESULT WITH INJURY AND/OR POSSIBLY BECOME LIFE THREATENING. THE 1ST DEALS WITH THE 3 H`S...HAZY HOT AND HUMID. VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE TOPS MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S. WITH THE UPPER 90S OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA. WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE SLATED TO CLIMB INTO THE 100S...WITH MID 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SC PORTION OF THE ILM CWA INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND LOW 100S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ILM CWA. WHERE HEAT INDEX THRESHOLDS OF 105 AND GREATER ARE MET...A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FOR TODAYS OCCURRENCE...IT INCLUDES THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM SC COUNTIES. THE 2ND DEALS WITH THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...FROM THE MID-DAY HOURS TO MID-EVENING. NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS...ALL INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WITH SOUNDING DATA POINTING TO PWS TEMPORARILY REACHING UP TO 2+ INCHES FROM MIDDAY THRU THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN QUESTION FOR CONVECTION TODAY DUE TO WINDS ALOFT PROGGED TO BE W TO WNW...A SCOURING EFFECT COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VARIOUS SVR PARAMETERS MAY BE MET WITH DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. THE HWO WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY. FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR DRASTICALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA. THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS FOLLOWED BY THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR...RESULTING IN LOWER RHS. LOOKING AT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A MARKEDLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE REGION. FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH TUE/WED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO EACH DAY. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IF ANY SEA BREEZE GIVEN WATER TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF HIGHS...MID 80S. TUE SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAY...MAINLY DUE TO A WARMER START. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY AIR ALOFT. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THU INTO FRI...EACH PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS...IF TIMING IS FAVORABLE. COVERAGE WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED SO AT MOST PLAN TO CARRY A SILENT POP. DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS 5H TROUGH DIGS. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES LATER FRI AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE...POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN POP FRI-SUN. THERE ALSO REMAINS THE SPECTER OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW THE MAJOR MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE QUITE WEAK BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SAID FEATURE WOULD NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...A DYING MCS/MCC WELL UPSTREAM BOOKING ESE COULD REACH THE INLAND TERMINALS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY CONVECTION TO ACCOMODATE. MAINLY MID-UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS DURING THIS MORNING...THINNING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDINESS AND SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT WILL BOTH KEEP ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING THIS AM. FOR DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN UP MAINLY THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 2 INCHES...AND FURTHER BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. TIGHTENED SFC PG AND OVERALL STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. THUS...LOOKING AT 240-270 DEGREES WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ITS OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AFTER FROPA...THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL CEASE AND WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10:15 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FR EVERY 9 SECONDS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WANING AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. WINDS MAY BE 10 TO 15 KT TUE MORNING BUT BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WED BUT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR EITHER DAY GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE EACH NIGHT AS LOWS OVERLAND DROP INTO THE 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUE. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...III NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...DCH MARINE...

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