Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 201727 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1227 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY WHEN A STORM MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...LARGE AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW OFF THE GA COAST THIS MORNING CONTINUES GENERATING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE A BIT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST. COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL EXPAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE DOWN TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING LIFT. THEN AS THE LOW HEADS EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ISENTROPIC LIFT RAPIDLY WEAKENS. MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL... DOWNSTREAM THE 12Z ATL SOUNDING RECORDED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH. THE LACK OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR KEEPING TOTAL QPF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO. ISOLATED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST COULD APPROACH A QUARTER. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED POP FORECAST BUT ONLY TO ADJUST FOR TIMING/TRENDS. OVERALL NUMBERS REMAIN MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED. KNOCKED HIGHS BACK A BIT IN MOST AREAS GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE AND VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ON SATELLITE AS WELL AS THE WIDESPREAD THOUGH LIGHT RAINFALL. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SOME DRYING MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY MAINLY OVER WRN ZONES. COASTAL LOCALES WILL STAY QUITE CLOUDY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AND THE MORE PROXIMAL NATURE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. MOISTURE COMES WASHING BACK IN SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION RIDES ATOP THE WEDGE AND SOME LIGHT RAIN APPEARS LIKELY AREA-WIDE MOST OF MONDAY. AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES RAPIDLY UP MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT PRECIP SHUTS OFF BUT CLOUD COVER WILL BE TOUGH TO SHAKE. SUNDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. A SLIGHT ASSERTION OF THE WEDGE ON MONDAY COULD KNOCK INLAND TEMPS DOWN KEEPING SOME PLACES FROM REACHING 50. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WEDGE WILL HOLD ON WEAKLY ON TUESDAY SOME SERIOUS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN FLOODING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN BREAKING OUT THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE DEEPER ASCENT KICKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EVEN STRONGER FORCING WILL BE IMPINGING UPON THE REGION BUT THE SYNOPTIC DRY SLOT MAY BE AS WELL. TIMING THESE FACTORS WILL BE CRITICAL SINCE AS-IS IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION MIXED IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. BUT SHOULD THE DRY SLOT MOVE IN MORE SLOWLY THEN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE AS BL WINDS CRANK UP TO 50KT OR SO. STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY EVENING LEADING TO A CHILLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT BUT A MODERATION BACK TO CLIMO EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THE LATE WED FROPA MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL TEND TO BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONFIDENCE IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. LEAST CONFIDENCE WILL BE KFLO/KLBT. IFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING EXCEPT EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT. AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE WITH NE WINDS TO 8-12 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON SUN. RAIN LIKELY MON WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. MORE SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY WED. VFR THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING BUT WILL BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS. GRADIENT ALREADY STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH SPEEDS INCREASING FROM UNDER 10 KT TO AROUND 15 KT AT 41013 IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE ANALYSIS WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEAST BUT SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ON THE HIGH END OF THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF SPEEDS ABOVE 15 KT. CONTINUE TO EVALUATE POTENTIAL SCEC LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SOLID 5 FT SEAS IN WATERS OPEN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A FRONT WILL BE STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK RIDGE/WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE LANDMASS. THE RESULTING NE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL AS WILL SEAS...BOTH PRECLUDING ANY ADVISORY/CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THE FRONT MOVES CLOSE TO IF NOT INTO THE FORECAST ZONES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND WILL GROW LIGHTER AND THE DIRECTION FORECAST MAY GET IFFY DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE FRONT GETS. BY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OUT TO SEA AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. FLOW WILL TURN BACK TO OFFSHORE AND INCREASE BY A FEW KNOTS. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THOUGH QUIET TO START CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOSES INFLUENCE OVER THE LANDMASS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MARCH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RAMP UP WIND AND SEAS LATE TUESDAY BUT MOSTLY TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED. WINDS LIKELY NOT TO SLACKEN MUCH WITH WED AFTERNOON FROPA, JUST A SHARP VEER IN DIRECTION. FLAGS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...REK/III SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR

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