Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 180717 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 317 AM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will stall near the region through Wednesday bringing a chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms. The Bermuda High will expand west over the region Thursday through Saturday. Low pressure, moving across the southern states late in the week, may bring unsettled conditions to the area for the start of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 315 AM Tuesday...A cold front is meandering its way through the area this morning on the heels of a zonal flow aloft. The system has never been impressive as a rain maker via the past few days and model cycles and current radar trends continue to show the same. Guidance has trended even drier for the next 12-18 hours with the best chance for widespread rainfall seemingly coming tonight as another weak shortwave moves across in the zonal configuration. We have trimmed back pops accordingly. Any thunder that may occur this afternoon is relegated to the southwest zones where some instability may develop. High temperatures will be some ten degrees cooler than Monday and this will probably be the biggest impact of the front. Overnight lows tonight, tempered by the moisture will fall modestly to within a couple of degree of 60 area wide.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 315 AM Tuesday...Chief feature this period is a weak and meandering frontal boundary over the area, perhaps enough to focus a few showers or a TSTM Wednesday, while interacting with a flimsy inland migrating sea breeze boundary aligned with the synoptic trajectories. This should provide an opportunity for a shower or storm for any local but not all will see fruition of measurable rainfall, as dynamical energy remains mediocre at best. Thursday will be warmer than Wednesday as low-level winds cut off the maritime influence ashore, becoming W-SW. Have opted to remove thunder Thursday since mid-level drying will set in capping the column above 10 thousand feet. Consequently, also expect more clouds Wednesday compared to Thursday. Small POPS were inserted Wednesday night despite diurnal cooling as weak boundary remnants begin to lift north over the area.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...A low amplitude upper ridge and Bermuda high pressure will bring unseasonable warmth. The ridge will not be strong enough to suppress isolated sea breeze convection by the looks of it. A very slow moving front will enter the area on Friday and so isolated storms will be possible just about anywhere while temperatures remain elevated above their seasonable norms. Thereafter the details become a bit convoluted but the late weekend trend does seem to be rather unsettled. Strong troughiness will be developing to our west leading to cyclogenesis. The speed at which this brings the front back as a warm front as well as the timing of the system`s trailing cold front are not well agreed upon between various guidance. Right now it appears the former occurs Saturday and the latter on Sunday. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 06Z...A cold front is making its way through the area this morning. Shower and any thunderstorm activity associateid with this feature has decreased over the past several hours. Guidance is painting a somewhat drier scenario for the next 12-18 hours. Overall expect VFR conditions currently to drop down slowly to MVFR later this morning. PROB30 groups are used to address the low shower chance. Extended outlook...MVFR/IFR conditions possible in showers and fog Tue night and in thunderstorms and showers on Wed. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 AM Tuesday...A rather weak cold front is making its way across the waters this morning. Most of the coastal waters will see a northerly component to the winds develop this morning with the exception of AMZ256 where the front stalls. Speeds will be light on the lower end of a 10-15 knot range. Later tonight a slightly stronger northeast surge moves across the NC waters increasing winds and seas somewhat. Overall significant seas will remain 1-3 feet until then. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 AM Tuesday...Manageable marine conditions to prevail Wed/Thu. Seas in recovery mode Wed with onshore winds so the subsiding trend will be a slow one Wed, but no advisories or caution statements appear to be needed, but it will be a bit bumpy in 3-4 foot seas in 7 second intervals from the E. An improving trend Thu as surface winds turn to WSW-SW and ease up, as weak and broad high pressure over the area unravels the pressure gradient. Thu 2-3 foot seas in a mix of E-SE wave trains. This period do expect a few marine showers and isolated TSTMS. Getting a radar check is recommended before venturing out both Wed/Thu. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...The period may start with light W wind but a SW flow should become established at Thursday wears on with a large area of high pressure off the coast. This SW flow will continue through the period and may become a bit more gusty as a cold front approaches from the NW. The appearance of 4 ft seas will be gradual but should increase through the Friday- Saturday timeframe.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SHK

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