Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 070248 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 948 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold and wet pattern will prevail into Saturday with lows in the 20s during the weekend. Another cold front by the middle of next week will reinforce the winter chill.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 900 PM Wednesday...Totally different weather conditions tonight as compared to 24 hours ago. This time last night, we were in the 60s. Tonight we are in the lower to mid 40s compliments of the passage of a strong cold front and subsequent cold air advection. Lows by morning will drop to the upper 30s to lower 40s. Rainfall was light, but widespread this eve and the latest high resolution models are showing the isentropic lift abating as we progress through the overnight. Measurable rainfall should begin to end from SW to NE after midnight. Drizzle may persist for a good portion of the overnight as the low levels will remain nearly saturated and we expect ceilings to lower. Earlier, evaporative cooling had pushed dewpoints down into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Since that time, columnar moistening has allowed dewpoints to creep back to the upper 30s to lower 40s. Guidance still has the front stalled offshore for the next few days. A series of disturbances moving NE along the front will interact with a deeply moist column, triggering bouts of rain through the Near Term. Extensive cloud cover, periods of rain and continued CAA will cap highs Thursday in the upper 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Broad, positively tilted upper troughiness in place Thursday night including a major piece of energy diving into Mexico. Ahead of this feature cyclogenesis will get under way over the Gulf and this feature will eventually move up the East Coast (though largely staying a pretty flat wave). Should this feature move with the rapidity depicted by the GFS then the area could stand to see some wintry precipitation. With the upper energy lagging behind however the much slower solutions of most every other guidance keeps the cold air from catching the moisture in time for this to occur. As such just a chilly rain is expected for most of the period, with a peak intensity through the daytime hours of Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Wednesday...A deep eastern mid level trough will be in place through the period. The trough will be reinforced with potent shortwaves Saturday and again toward the end of the forecast period. The only pops through the period are early on Saturday when the last vestiges of mid level forcing and moisture move across. There may be some light rain late in the period with the reinforcing shortwave but being seven days out confidence is not high. Of course with this type of pattern it will be blustery and cold with temperatures well below normal. Highs Saturday through Monday will be hard pressed to get out of the 40s with lows (augmented somewhat by a mixed boundary layer) in the 20s. Expect some moderation after this before the final shortwave drops in another chill.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 00Z...Patchy light to moderate rain will continue for the next few hours, likely tapering off a bit around 04Z. Ceilings and visibilities are a tough call with all this low level moisture, however upstream dewpoints are lowering, and think a drying out process will commence later tonight. Thursday, continued cloudy with predominately MVFR conditions expected. The NAM wants to crank up the precip again in the afternoon, the GFS not so much. Will probably lean toward the more pessimistic NAM. Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR due to SHRA Friday mainly coastal terminals. MVFR showers ending Sat. VFR Sun/Mon.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 900 PM Wednesday...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines will remain in place into Thu. A cold front has moved offshore and will stall as waves of low pressure move N along the boundary through Thu and beyond. This will keep wet weather across the waters. The initial surge of cold and dry air will keep wind speeds in the 15 to 20 kt range. As the dry and cold air is reinforced on Thu, wind speeds should remain 15 to 20 kt. The direction will be N. Seas will be 4 to 5 ft, except 2 to 4 ft across Long Bay. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...The gradient will remain pinched between high pressure to the west and an offshore frontal boundary through the period. The gusty N winds that result will generally fall short of advisory or headline criteria and the offshore trajectory will keep any seas that require the same outside of the 20nm zones. The dominant wave period will be a choppy 4-5 seconds early on possibly opening to 5-6 later in the period. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Expect an almost westerly to even southwesterly flow Saturday ahead of a strong shortwave which will bring good cold air advection and stronger winds. Speeds Saturday will be 10-15 knots for the most part but could eclipse these values for a few hours Saturday evening. For Sunday and Monday a strong northwest flow on the order of 15-20 knots will develop early on but diminish somewhat by late Monday. Some variability in seas as would be expected with the mostly offshore flow but expect 2-5 feet Saturday and Sunday dropping off Monday.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK/RJD SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DL

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