Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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702 FXUS62 KILM 220733 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Seasonable temperatures today will yield to hotter weather over the weekend. The heat wave will last into the early or middle part of next week all while rain chances remain minimal.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1030 PM Thursday...No additional changes are necessary to the forecast. The last of the diurnal convection is dead and inland winds are diminishing toward calm. Visibilities may begin to decrease inland toward daybreak where moisture content of the boundary layer is highest, but fog isn`t anticipated to be an issue. Discussion from 730 pm follows... The last puffs of diurnal convection are ongoing along the seabreeze front northwest of Georgetown. Look for this activity to die down over the next hour as the boundary layer begins to stabilize. With no upper level disturbances upstream there is little reason to expect any additional showers or storms overnight. Forecast lows have been tweaked down just slightly east of I-95 due to very light winds anticipated in a reasonably dry airmass for this time of year. Discussion from 300 PM follows... Convection as was anticipated is struggling with drier air and the the weak inversion aloft at 550 mb. A few convective towers tried to develop along the sea breeze earlier but struggled mightily. Current visible satellite is showing cumulus development in the counties of Darlington, Florence, Williamsburg, Georgetown, Marlboro, and Marion. But as of 3 PM nothing is developing over the southwest area but areas farther to the south and west where conditions are better convection is firing. Thus will keep a slight chance of thunderstorms for the area mentioned above. Overnight, skies will be mostly clear and lows will fall into the lower 70s inland and the middle 70s at the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...High pressure will continue to build over the region. Temperatures will slowly increase and low-level moisture increases also with the high pressure dominating the region. The heat indices will increase through the period with values at or above 105 degrees away from the coast on Saturday and Sunday when heat advisories are expected to be posted for portions of our area. On Saturday the Piedmont trough develops and there will be an slight increase in chances for thunderstorms. Focus for the convection will be along the sea-breeze front and farther to the west with the differential heating of the Carolina Sandhills. Highs on Friday will range from the upper 80s at the beaches to 94 inland. On Saturday, highs will range from the upper 80s on the beaches to 96 inland. Low temperatures will be in the middle 70s each night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 3 AM Friday... The long term will be characterized by very hot and humid and generally rain-free conditions. The main questions appear to be the degree and length of the heat and when meaningful rain chances return. Early in the period upper level ridging will be broad and covering much of the lower CONUS (though there may be a weak upper low retrograding across FL/NE GOMEX). Locally this ridge will bring hot conditions and suppress precipiation despite increasing low level moisture in SW flow around Bermuda high and east of piedmont troughiness. Heights are not as high nor are BL temps as the last heat wave earlier this month as the core of the heat appears to stay relegated out west. Even so we will see mid to upper 90s and heat indices in the advisory realm through at least Tuesday. Previously it appeared that this setup would start to break down on Wednesday but now this may be a bit slower. And indeed some guidance is showing a slight abating of the heat by then this is likely due to the MOS increased bias towards climatology further out in time. Have reduced the amount of "cooling" and increase in POPS shown in previous forecast. This is especially supported by the 00z ECMWF.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 06Z... Predawn fog will generally be MVFR at worst at coastal terminals. Inland still not quite clear as to whether IFR or even LIFR develops. Some guidance hitting FLO with LIFR (though oddly not LBT). Since FLO has a higher dewpoint depression than LBT at this time have limited to IFR and relegated to tempo. VFR for the rest of the forecast for all terminals. Winds lt and var through the overnight hours. around mid-morning winds will become southerly 5-10 kts, highest at the coastal terminals. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Brief periods of MVFR/IFR from isolated afternoon convection Saturday through Tuesday. Otherwise expect VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 PM Thursday...No significant changes are needed to the forecast this evening. Light southerly winds will veer more offshore very late tonight with a landbreeze circulation. Discussion from 300 PM follows... The front has dissipated and winds are now northeast off the coast and southeast to south as the sea- breeze circulation is now well established near the coast. Wind speeds are still at 5 to 10 knots and seas are running around 3 feet. The buoys are still detecting the 2.5 to 3 ft ground swell with a period of 9 seconds from the southeast along the coast. Do not anticipate a change overnight in the sea heights. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...As the high pressure becomes established the light and variable winds will shift to the southwest by Saturday. Winds speeds will increase from the 5 to 10 knots to around 15 knots by Saturday afternoon. Seas will be 2 to 3 feet on Thursday and increase to 2 to 4 feet by Saturday in response to the increased southwest winds. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 AM Friday...Seasonable lack of variability in the forecast for the long term. South to southwesterly flow well established between the bermuda high and piedmont trough. If anything changes at all it may be a slight lengthening of the dominant period as the weak swell energy competes in the frequency spectrum with the shorter period wind wave. Even so combined seas leading to a dominant height of 2-3ft.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...TRA/DRH SHORT TERM...DCH/DRH LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MBB

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