Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 220538 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 138 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain offshore and extending back into the Carolinas today. A slow moving cold front will sink south into the area late tonight before stalling near the NC/SC border through early next week. A complex storm system will develop along this boundary and bring thunderstorms and potentially heavy rainfall through late Monday. This system will lift away from the area Tuesday with a return to seasonable and dry weather by the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 915 PM Friday...The main change made for this update was to decrease the cloudiness coverage tonight into Sat. Latest sat imagery trends and rh model time height displays across the FA indicate diurnal driven cu will dissipate leaving only thin cirrus aloft. Any convective debris clouds from upstream will remain north of the FA. Tightened sfc pg and the nocturnal low level jet overnight, will combine to keep winds active thruout the night and preventing any fog development. This will also result in elevated min temps for tonight with widespread 60s across the FA. Previous......................................................... As of 300 PM Friday...It`s practically a summertime pattern this afternoon with Bermuda High Pressure offshore and a unseasonably warm airmass in place. Officially we hit 88 here in Wilmington just before the seabreeze arrived, our warmest temperature of the year so far! A strong seabreeze circulation is developing with winds at the beaches expected to gust to 25-30 mph over the next few hours. Cumulus clouds developing along the seabreeze front and inland near the Piedmont Trough have struggled to overcome dry mid-level air observed in this morning`s 12Z soundings from MHX and CHS. Where natural convergence is maximized along the Piedmont Trough, a few showers could develop from Darlington and Bennettsville across Lumberton in the next few hours but coverage is likely be less only 20 percent. Much like last night a hefty low level jet should develop this evening with 1000 foot wind speeds increasing to 25-30 knots. This should help keep the boundary layer stirred up enough that lows will remain quite warm for April: 63-65 inland with upper 60s near the coast. Another warm day is expected Saturday. Differences from today include winds not quite as dominated by westerly low and mid level flow, however dry air aloft still appears to be in place. I have placed 20 PoPs in the forecast along the seabreeze and in the northern half of the Pee Dee region as dewpoints should be a few degrees higher which may help the afternoon cumulus to have a bit more luck combating the dry air aloft. Highs should again rise well into the 80s away from the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Friday...Anomalously strong upper low will but cutting across TN Saturday night with surface low only slightly ahead/east of the mid level system. The position of the leading front associated with the surface wave is and has been poorly agreed upon by various model guidance, the GFS being the far south outlier. The boundary may well end up bifurcating the area north-south by Sunday morning. Wind and temperature forecast have been adjusted accordingly. With only low level forcing in place precip amounts look to be light and will be overrunning stratiform rain north of the boundary and shallow convection south of it. On Sunday height falls will help to strengthen the low level jet and thus the overrunning north of the boundary. Similarly the coverage of rain south of the front will increase though with much lighter amounts expected. Sunday night the upper low dives even further south and the system occludes overhead or south of the area...impressive for late April. The period should end with a healthy amount of rainfall area-wide likely in the 1-2 inch range. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...The extended period will be active early on as a closed mid level low moves across the interior southeast then up along the east coast Tuesday. As for Wednesday through Friday mid level ridging will develop across the southeast as deep troughing develops out west. The aforementioned mid level cyclone will be located in central Georgia at the beginning of the period with an occluded surface cyclone just off the South Carolina coast. Both features move to the north and by Tuesday morning the surface feature should be near Cape Hatteras with the mid level feature not too far behind. We continue to advertise likely to categorical pops for Monday trending downward Tuesday. Normally the words cutoff and late April are associated with an appreciable risk of severe weather but the wind fields don`t look overly impressive at least from a speed standpoint with 30 knots dispersed kinda diffusely at 850mb. Still a cold core system during late April could pose a hail threat. The remainder of the week should be dry with above normal temperatures trending even higher as time goes on. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 06Z...VFR forecast through the valid period. High pressure offshore will keep a cold front to the north at bay, but increased moisture this aftn will permit at least SCT aftn diurnal CU at VFR levels. A few showers and even isolated tstms are possible, mostly along the sea breeze, but are not expected to impact any of the terminals. SW winds will remain above 5 kts through daybreak, and then increased to 10-15 kts, with gusts over 20 kts likely at the coastal terminals behind the sea breeze. A local backing to the S/SW is also forecast at ILM/CRE/MYR this aftn. Winds will ease slowly after dark, and the aforementioned cold front will begin to sag southward. Guidance has sped up the timing of this fropa, but will likely still not see a wind shift or any showers across NC terminals until just beyond this valid period. However, VFR cigs will slowly develop from north to south overnight tonight. Extended outlook...MVFR/IFR cigs possible late Saturday night into Sunday. Periods of MVFR and IFR are likely Sunday and Monday in showers and thunderstorms. VFR re-developing on Tuesday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /Tonight through Saturday/... As of 915 PM Friday...Active SW winds expected tonight thru Sat. A tightened sfc pg across the area waters well ahead of a cold front, will keep SW winds active across the waters tonight thru Sat. , located across central VA at the moment, will continue across the area waters tonight thru Sat. A low level 20 to 30 kt SW jet is expected again over the area waters tonight. With SSTS having climbed to around 70, some of those hier winds aloft may work their down to the ocean sfc as gusts. Significant seas will generally run 2 to 4 ft with 3 to 5 ft not entirely out of the question during Saturday. This may result in the issuance of a SCEC if this trend continues. A decaying easterly pseudo swell at 7 to 8 second periods tonight will give way to the 3 to 5 second period wind waves as the dominate player in the seas spectrum. Previous................................................... As of 300 PM Friday...High pressure centered about 500 miles east of the Florida east coast will move very little through Saturday. A cold front currently extending from West Virginia to the Maryland coast will slip as far south as the northern Outer Banks by late Saturday afternoon. Our weather will continue to be influenced most strongly by the high offshore in a summerlike pattern that will feature another strong seabreeze circulation on Saturday. Locally-generated wind waves will dominate the wave spectrum tonight into Saturday. There will be also a pair of 8 second east and southeast swells pushing across the coastal waters but with amplitudes much less than the short period wind chop. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Friday...Boundary will be slipping south into or across the area as Saturday night progresses. The position and movement of this boundary is highly uncertain as it is poorly agreed upon between various guidance. So not only is the wind shift line uncertain but so too is the areal coverage of the stronger pre- frontal SW flow regime. These details will likely become more clear in future forecast iterations. These uncertainties will translate into the latter part of the period as well. Low pressure bearing down on the area from the west will try to push the boundary northward but the system as a whole will be translating southward. Overall winds will remain below any advisory or even cautionary thresholds and the late period main marine threat may end up visibility restrictions due to moderate rainfall. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...A complex storm system will move up the coast Monday and Tuesday and with the nature of the storm and the extended time frame, confidence is low for this forecast. Initially the waters should see a southeast flow. This flow will transition to northeast by Monday evening and turn more offshore Tuesday. As of now, speeds should remain below flag criteria but an extended period of somewhat churned up seas may allow heights to eclipse six feet. Both elements should subside considerably Wednesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054-056. NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108-110. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH/JDW SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...JDW MARINE...

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