Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 080849 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 449 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HOT TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FLIRT WITH 100 DEGREES BOTH DAYS AWAY FROM THE COAST AS THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF REMAINS ACTIVE AND A RATHER PINNED SEA BREEZE PREVENTS YOUR NORMAL WELL INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE DAILY SEA BREEZE. A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND STALLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRI THRU MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE 3 DAYS...FRI THRU MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3:30 AM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS THE PIEDMONT THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND THE BERMUDA HIGH MAINTAINS POSITION OFFSHORE. RESULTANT INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES OVER YESTERDAYS NUMBERS. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES US HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 90 AT THE COAST TO THE MID 90S INLAND. THIS IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE COASTAL SITES AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE INLAND. HOWEVER...AS DEWPOINTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER FOR THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAYS NUMBERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE MID 70S DUE TO CONTINUED MIXING WITH A STEADY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE. ALTHOUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT A FEW SPOT SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO ASSIGN EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...VARIOUS WX MODELS INCLUDING FOREIGN MODELS HAVE ARRIVED TO A CONSENSUS EXHIBITING AMPLIFIED UPPER LONGWAVE TROFFING TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE UNITED STATES...WHICH INCLUDES THE ILM CWA. UPPER TROFFING FROM THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX IS PROGGED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD AFFECTING AGAIN THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE UNITED STATES SOUTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. THE ACTUAL NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ILM CWA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS INDICATE PERSISTENT PIEDMONT TROFFING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY...THAT GETS MORE OR LESS ABSORBED BY A COOL OR COLD FRONT DROPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THU. LOOK FOR FORCING FROM THE PIEDMONT TROF/COLD FRONT FOR INLAND CONVECTION WED AFTN/EVENING...WITH SEA BREEZE INDUCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE COAST. BASICALLY LOOKING AT 20-40 POPS FOR WED...HIEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FOR THU THRU THU NIGHT...THE SFC COLD FRONT SNAKES A BIT FURTHER SE...WITH THE MODELS INDICATING IT STALLING ORIENTED NE-SW ACROSS THE ILM CWA LATE THU AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. THE HIGHEST POPS OF THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL OCCUR FROM MID-DAY THU THRU MUCH OF THU NITE. PLENTY OF AVBL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL FORCING FROM THE VARIOUS SFC FEATURES...ALONG WITH ANY MID-LEVEL FORCING FROM A S/W TROF OR VORT MOVING OVERHEAD WITHIN THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROF. WILL EXHIBIT GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. AS FOR TEMPS...WED TO BE THE HOTTEST OF THE 2 DAYS...WITH APPARENT TEMPS IE. HEAT INDICES...DURING WED AFTN COMING CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 70S FOR MORNING LOWS...WITH MINS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST POSSIBLY EITHER NOT DROPPING BELOW 80 OR REMAINING BELOW 80 DEGREES FOR ONLY A HANDFUL OF HOURS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE LONGWAVE UPPER AMPLIFIED TROFFING PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE U.S. WILL WEAKEN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN IDENTIFIABLE UPPER TROF AXIS ACROSS OR JUST WEST OF THE ILM CWA. THIS WILL PREVENT ANY TROPICAL AIR MASS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FROM REACHING THE ILM CWA. BASICALLY LOOKING AT A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS...WITH OCCASIONAL LOW LEVEL SE THRU SW FLOW ABLE TO INPUT SOME TROPICAL ATLANTIC OR GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE ACROSS THE ILM CWA. DYNAMICS FROM SFC FEATURES IN THE FORM OF A STALLED AND SLOWLY DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FA...THE DAILY SEA BREEZE...AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NW-N ON MONDAY...WILL ALL COMBINE TO KEEP A BETTER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. ANY S/W TROFS MOVING WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS THE FA. THE CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS...ESPECIALLY DAILY HIGHS...BELOW THE CLIMO NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME TEMPO MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR FOG FORMATION...BUT THE LOW LEVELS ARE MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT EARLY MORNING STRATUS. TEMPO 1-2KFT MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST...WHILE KFLO/KLBT MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER OUR AREA. S-SW WINDS 10-15 KTS DURING THE DAY WILL GUST TO 20-25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS AT THE COASTAL TERMS. THE GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-12 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3:30 AM TUESDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT PRESENT SW WINDS ARE IN THE 15 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...THE PIEDMONT TROF/APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE CENTER OF 1025+ MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE AND EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...WILL PRODUCE A TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE ILM COASTAL WATERS THRUOUT THIS TIME PERIOD. MODELS ILLUSTRATE THE LOCAL WATERS TO OBSERVE SSW-SW WINDS AT 10-20 KT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH WIND SPEEDS FLIRTING WITH 25 KT ON WED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK ON WED...THEN EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SUBSIDE SOME DURING THU. THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL MAINLY BE COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 5 TO 6 SECOND SHORT PERIODS. WAVEWATCH3 DOES IDENTIFY A WEAK EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS. THE HEIGHT OF THIS GROUND SWELL MAY BECOME THE DETERMINING FACTOR OF WHETHER TO UTILIZE THE SCEC OR AN ISSUANCE OF A SCA FOR PARTIAL OR THE ENTIRE ILM COASTAL WATERS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS. NEARSHORE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH SPEEDS ON THE LOWER END OF THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT FRI AND SAT.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...REK/BJR

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