Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 172346 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 746 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Bermuda high pressure will remain anchored off the Carolina Coast. A weak cold front will approach from the north this weekend, with above normal temperatures through the period. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase early next week ahead of a stronger cold front from the west.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 745 PM Wednesday...A patch of cirrus is impinging upon the forecast area from the west this evening as temperatures cool back down from earlier highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Forecast good to go with no changes needed. Previous discussion follows: A fair and mild evening on the horizon, as upper ridging over the area and Bermuda high pressure team up. The land/sea temperature differential will drive a hearty sea breeze into early evening but will become more tamed as diurnal cooling settles in. The momentum transfer into the boundary layer will result in SSW winds 20-25 KT winds above the surface, combined with a thin layer of saturation may result in patches of stratus after 3- 4 AM before burning off an hour or 2 after sunrise, coverage should remain limited. Another sunny and very warm day Thursday shaping up, perhaps thin cirrus along with a few after cumulus as the early morning moisture is lifted. Lows overnight mid 60s inland to around 70 at the coast, highs Thursday upper 80s to 90 inland and middle 80s along the beach.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Wednesday...A broad southwest flow will be in place through the period with an elongated ridge centered off the Florida peninsula and closed mid level low pressure over Colorado. At the surface elongated Bermuda High pressure will remain in place as well. Some guidance shows convection developing Friday to the north where more conducive thermal and moisture profiles reside. This is probably a harbinger of things to come for the weekend but for now this period remains dry. Not much deviation with regards to temperatures from the past few days with daytime highs ranging from the middle 80s along the coast to near 90 inland with overnight lows mostly in the middle 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Wednesday...Backdoor cold front along leading edge of high pressure moving through New England will try to drop across the area with a few showers late on Saturday. Guidance is in agreement that the front will stall across eastern NC, likely somewhere just north of the local area. If this front does drop further south and into the CWA, shower chances will increase and temps will decrease, but for now will maintain inherited forecast of upper 80s to around 90 Saturday, with just a SCHC for showers Saturday night. This front will quickly retreat back to the north Sunday as the aforementioned high slides off the New England coast and ridging persists aloft in response to a trough digging into the MS VLY. Soundings indicated some mid-level drying on Sunday so while a few showers are possible, Sunday looks also to be mostly dry with temps again slightly above climo. More cloud cover is forecast for Sunday though. A much more unsettled period begins Sunday night and especially Mon-Tue as a Cold front trails across the Carolinas with good shower and tstm chances. Much of Monday appears wet before drying occurs by Tuesday aftn thanks to the cold front pushing SE of the area. Broad trough remains across the east behind this feature, so while the middle of the week may again be dry, temps will be much cooler Mon-Wed than Sat/Sun.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 00Z...High confidence VFR all terminals through the TAF valid period with the exception of LBT. For LBT winds will go near calm in the pre-dawn hours of Thursday, giving us low confidence in a brief period of IFR fog. Extended Outlook...Flight categories may lower to IFR or lower during the pre-dawn hours of Sat. Reduced flight categories will be possible in any showers and thunderstorms that develop on Monday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 745 PM Wednesday...Southerly winds of 10 to 15 kts and seas of around 2 ft over the waters this evening fits in well with the going forecast. No changes needed with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: Summer-like marine conditions with Bermuda high pressure centered near Bermuda. Winds will stay up in a 10-15 KT range with a few gusts to 20 KT tonight, as winds remain 20-25 KT several hundred meters off the water surface. The gusts will sustain tomorrow afternoon as a vigorous seas breeze gears up again. Seas mainly between 2-2.5 feet with moderate chop and dominant periods between 4-6 seconds. No showers or TSTMS expected nor any restrictions to visibility on the 0-20 NM waters. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Much like the public forecast the coastal waters forecast changes little if any through this period with Bermuda High pressure in command. Expect south to southeast winds of ten knots or so with seas of 1-3 feet. There will be some slightly stronger winds along the coast with the sea breeze. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Back door cold front will stall likely just north of the waters on Saturday, but elongating high pressure will allow winds to back from SW to E through the day, at speeds 10 kts or less. The wave spectrum will respond to these light winds by maintaining a predominant SE swell, and seas of 2-3 ft are expected Saturday. The front lifts back north Sunday and winds will veer back to the SE but at continued light speeds. This will change during Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. This front causes the gradient to pinch, and wind speeds become 15-20 kts while veering further to the SW late in the period. These stronger winds will drive wave heights up to 3-4 ft Monday as a Southerly wind wave amplifies, after persisting at 2-3 ft on Sunday.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...REK MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK

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