Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 200805 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 405 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT WEST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TUESDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY TRACKING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY POSSIBLY STALLING NEAR THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A LOCALLY MOIST TRANSPORT OF AIR ON WSW WIND TRAJECTORIES IN THE MID-LEVELS...WHILE IN THE LOW-LEVELS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WITH A HIGH OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW SE WINDS TO BRING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITH ASSISTANCE FROM THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SHORT-WAVE ENERGY EJECTING NE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WAS TRIPPING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL SC/NC. A SERIES OF THESE FEATURES WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AS THE IMPULSES ALOFT TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN SWATH. NEAR THE COAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP DRIVE A SEA BREEZE FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON....AND RESULTING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS. MODERATE DOSES OF JULY INSOLATION SHOULD SET FIRE TO A FEW TSTMS IN DIURNAL HEATING AND OVERNIGHT AS SOUTH FLOW AND COLUMN MOISTURE DEEPENS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LOW TO MIDDLE 70S WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 BEACHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF FORECAST AREA WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOWING THIS TROUGH CUTTING OFF WITH LOW RETROGRADING WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO MID WEEK. OVERALL LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE WETTER OF THE TWO DAYS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND DEVELOPING LOW OVER GA/SC. GFS SHOWS BULLSEYE OF UP TO 2.3 INCHES OF PCP WATER OVER NORTHEAST SC MON AFTN. BY TUES IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD FARTHER AWAY FROM LOCAL AREA BUT THIS MAY PULL MOISTURE FROM LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH TO OUR EAST BACK TOWARD THE COAST WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR PCP AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND. MAY GET A BREAK WITH BRIEF RIDGING LATE TUES INTO EARLY WED BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN ANY PARTICULAR PERIOD BEING TOO QUIET. MAY END UP BEING A LOT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN PCP BUT DO EXPECT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO EXPERIENCE SOME POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN IN WEAK STEERING FLOW...ESPECIALLY MON AFTN. GREATER CHC OF PCP ON MONDAY SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WHILE TUES SHOULD STILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS BUT RIDGING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE INCREASING HEIGHTS AND SHOULD BE LESS PCP AROUND TO HELP TEMPS RISE CLOSER TO 90 MOST PLACES.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...RETURN TO A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN AS BERMUDA RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ON WED. A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION THROUGH MID WEEK AS DECENT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT. MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURS INTO FRI PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT INCREASING S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BETTER SHEER AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO PRODUCE STRONGER STORMS LATE THURS INTO FRI AS FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS BEHIND FRONT LATE FRI BUT FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR BY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SFC HIGH SHIFTS RAPIDLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMEST TEMPS WILL COME THROUGH MID WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT AND A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IS OVER THE AREA WITH READINGS IN THE 90S WED AND THURS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LATE THURS AND FRI WILL MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS. SHOULD SEE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS FRI AND SATURDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS AREAS OF 1-2KFT CIGS DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING THANKS TO AN UNSEASONABLE WEDGE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE. IN FACT...KILM HAS ALREADY SEEN CIGS BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN VFR/MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT. DESPITE THE CALM WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST...THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK SHOULD KEEP VSBYS FROM DROPPING BELOW MVFR AT WORST. SFC OBS INDICATE KFLO/KLBT ARE STILL BATTLING DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR...SO FOG SEEMS EVEN LESS LIKELY AT THESE TERMINALS. AFTER 12-13Z...TODAY WILL BE VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH FINALLY BREAKS DOWN...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KTS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH INLAND BEGINNING MID MORNING...AND HAVE ADDED VCSH FOR KMYR/KCRE AFTER 18Z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ON TAP TODAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IN PLACE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME SE 10-15 INTO AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE ALSO STRENGTHENS...WITH LIGHT SSE WINDS MUCH OF MORNING. SEAS TODAY 2-3 FEET MAINLY IN SE WAVE ENERGY WITH MIXED PERIODS OF 4-5 SECONDS FROM LOCAL WINDS...AND 8-9 SECONDS BORN FURTHER OUT ON THE S-SE PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...AND A WATERSPOUT CANNOT BE RULED THIS MORNING BENEATH ANY MODERATE CUMULUS CLOUDS. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SHORE WINDS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REACHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH WHILE A LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH REMAINS OFF SHORE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THURS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE UP TO 15 KTS OR SO BY WED EVENING IN TIGHTENING GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON WED TO 3 TO 5 FT BY THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE THU AND CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT AS SEAS POSSIBLY INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT BY THU NIGHT.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MJC/BJR

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