Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 151344 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 944 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Dry and seasonably warm weather is expected into the weekend. The very outer bands of Jose could bring showers to coastal zones late on Sunday. Jose will move well north of the area through early next week. Beachgoers should be particularly cautious this weekend, as increasing southeast swell from Jose begins to produce powerful rip currents and dangerous surf. Increasing northeast winds Sunday will further roughen the already hazardous surf zone.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 944 AM Friday...A pleasant and seasonably warm day on tap with plentiful sunshine minutes in the cards. W-WSW flow aloft and an h8-h7 drying trend today will prevent measurable rain and pop values remain below mentionable levels, and this appears to be the case into much of the weekend. Diurnal cumulus formation is expected this afternoon. High pressure pressing from the north will prompt a slight uptick in NNE winds by daybreak on Saturday. Flat pressure pattern today spells light winds and the sea breeze circulation will allow the predominant wind direction to become SE along the coast and coastal interior. As of 300 AM Friday...Once we burn off some fog and low cloud forecast model soundings show that dry air will quickly mix vertically for a sunny morning and even moreso afternoon. By 18Z the entire column becomes very dry save for the narrowest layer of moisture at about 4kft where some flat cu may develop. Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 80s with light winds due to a weak pressure pattern as high pressure tries to become established over New York.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Friday...During this period, the eastern 1/3rd of the U.S. will basically be under ridging aloft. Subsidence associated with the ridging will keep convection limited to the sea breeze. Did not include thunder due to the limited vertical extent of the the Moderate and/or towering Cu as a result of the subsidence inversion. Come Sunday, the FA may come under the NVA and additional subsidence well ahead of Tropical Cyclone Jose. This will keep pcpn limited. Models do try to push the cirrus shield across portions of the FA Sunday into Monday. The NAM seems overdone with clouds and especially with pcpn, thus stayed closer to a drier GFS solution. Decided to keep any of the outer pcpn bands associated with Jose offshore, ranging from northeast thru southeast of the FA`s coast. In the end, a mostly sunny or partly cloudy Saturday and a Partly to mostly sunny Sunday depending on the extent of the cirrus shield. Each night will mainly be mostly clear except additional clouds possible early Mon morning. Max/Min temperatures for the 2 day period will run about a category above the climo norms. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Tropical Storm Jose, forecast to be back at hurricane strength by Sun, will pass well east of the coast early in the period. Mid-level trough will pick up Jose and lift the storm north-northeast Sun through Tue, passing about 350 miles east of Cape Fear on Mon. There still remains uncertainty with respect to Jose`s timing and track but it continues to look like the only impact Jose will have on the area will be dangerous surf conditions for the end of this week and the start of next week. Outside of Jose, the period will be dominated by surface high pressure over much of the east coast and weak mid-level ridging. The only real chance for rainfall during the period appears to be late Sun or Sun night, but even this is uncertain and will depend on how much deep moisture is spread over the eastern Carolinas by Jose and how strong the convergence zone is and where it sets up. There may be some isolated weak convection late in the period associated with the Piedmont trough but do not have a lot of confidence in this right now. Temperatures will run a few degrees above climo through the period. && .AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 12Z...Any leftover MVFR conditions from BR across the terminals should quickly dissipate by 13Z. Ridging and subsidence aloft will keep a lid on any convection today. There is enough moisture below the subsidence inversion combined with favoring lapse rates that diurnally driven cu will develop this morning with possible brief bkn ceilings in the 2.5K to 4.0k feet. An isolated -shra will also be possible along the sea breeze but too isolated to even mention VCSH. Winds generally variable at 5 kt or less inland terminals. For the coastal terminals, a land breeze less than 5 kt this morning will become onshore 150-180 degrees at 5 to 10 kt due to the sea breeze formation and inland progression. After sunset, winds will decouple once again along with patchy ground fog especially during the pre-dawn Sat hrs. Just not enough confidence to fcst IFR for the 08Z-12Z time frame. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions thruout the forecast period. The exception will be each morning where MVFR/IFR conditions are possible from reduced vsby in BR/FG. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 944 AM Friday...Snapshots of the wave spectra along the coast show south wind-chop, coupled with E through SE longer period wave energy. Overall expect 2.5-3.5 foot seas today with dominant wave periods around 11 seconds. Overnight an increase is SE swell will arrive in 13 seconds intervals...building to 5-7 feet offshore by Saturday afternoon. NE winds will increase on Saturday. For seas alone an advisory appears likely as we progress into the weekend. Jose will make its closest pass to the coasts late Sunday. This said, marine condition remain favorable today and tonight. As of 300 AM Friday...Today will offer up one last quiet weather for mariners. High pressure getting established across New York State will have trouble extending a ridge axis into the Carolinas and we also remain outside of Jose`s circulation envelope. Nearshore winds will turn onshore in a seabreeze but otherwise winds will be rather light and variable. Seas will average 3 ft in mostly Jose swell that will gradually increase as the period wears on. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Friday...The 1st half of the weekend will start off aok for mariners with sfc high pressure ridging southward from the Great Lakes. Looking at a NE wind 5 to 10 kt at the start increasing to 10-15 kt during Sat. Tropical Cyclone Jose will be making his closest approach to the local waters Sun into Mon but remaining well offshore. Jose`s movement will result in the sfc pg tightening-some with NE backing to N winds increasing to 15 to 20 kt during Sun into Mon. Kept any outer rain bands associated with Jose offshore from the local waters. Skies will see the cirrus shield and possibly high altocu overhead at Jose`s closest approach. Significant seas this period will be in the process of growing/building due to the influx of Jose swell with periods at 12 to 15 seconds. Taking into account the short period NE to N wind driven waves, significant seas will run 3 to 6 ft Sat and 5 to 8 ft Sat night thru Sun night with a few 9 footers possible late Sun into Mon off Cape Fear. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...North to northeast flow will continue through the period with elongated surface ridge axis to the west and Tropical Storm Jose to the east. The future for Jose remains unclear and this keeps confidence in the coastal waters forecast low. Jose will move north and eventually northeast during the period but the storm`s proximity to the coast as well as its strength remains uncertain. For now have northeast winds peaking around 15 kt very late Sun night into Mon morning, but this is with Jose passing about 350 miles east of the coast. A closer pass would result in higher wind speeds. Seas during the period will be mostly made up of swell from Jose, although the strength and proximity of the storm to the coast will determine how high seas are. While there is potential for double digit seas for now the forecast is 5 to 8 ft Sun gradually subsiding to 3 to 4 ft on Tue.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...MBB/MJC SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...III AVIATION...DCH/MRR MARINE...MBB/DCH/III/MJC

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