Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 010802 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 400 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS IS PRODUCING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA ATTM. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN AND LIFT IN THE 12 TO 14Z TIME FRAME...YIELDING A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY BUT THEY SHOULD BE LESS NUMEROUS THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO A DRIER ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH MINS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL FLOW LOOKS PRETTY ZONAL ON THURSDAY THOUGH A HEALTHY-FOR-JULY SHORTWAVE DOES SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH. MOST PLACES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S BEFORE A SCATTERING OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS. ON FRIDAY THERE IS A SMALL BACKING IN THE MID LEVELS TO WSW THOUGH THE OVERALL 1000-500 MB RH FIELDS IN BOTH THE GFS AND WRF GO DOWN SLIGHTLY. SIMILARLY THERE IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT IN HOW FAR SOUTH A FRONT SAGS. THE WRF GETS THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS IT FURTHER NORTH AND ALLOWS A VERY HEALTHY PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE BUT SHOW HIGHER VALUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES IN DEFERENCE TO THE WRF. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF THURSDAY UNLESS STORMS FIRE UP OVER NORTHERN ZONES EARLY ENOUGH TO DISRUPT THE DIURNAL CURVE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO STAY STALLED CLOSE TO THE NC/VA BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS PAIRED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY PIEDMONT TROUGH AND WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH SUBTLY CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR NORMAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON, IF NOT A BIT MORE. ALSO, INSTABILITY MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS SLOW THE DECOUPLING PROCESS AND THIS LINGERING INSTABILITY `BENEFITS` FROM THE OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE-INDUCED PVA FOR LIFT. MODELS HONING IN ON AN INTERESTING POSSIBILITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN THAT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY WEAKLY CUT OFF. TROUBLE IS THEY SEEM TO THINK THE POSSIBILITIES OF WHERE THIS OCCURS RANGE FROM GA TO PA. FAIR TO SAY THAT MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN AND RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY AT OR ABOVE THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 06Z WEDNESDAY...PRECIP IS OVER FOR THE NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO FOG EXPECTED WITH DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WEDNESDAY...SHOULD BE A QUIETER DAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. ANY CONVECTION AT ALL WILL PROBABLY BE ALONG THE RESULTANT JUST AFTER MAX HEATING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...W TO SW WINDS INVOF 15 KT THIS AM WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE HAS BEEN REMOVED AS CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS NO LONGER MEET CRITERIA. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE DOMINANT WIND AND WAVE MAKER WILL BE THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH AND THUS WE EXPECT SWRLY FLOW AND AN AVERAGE 2-4 FT WAVE FORECAST. A FRONT MAY DROP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/VA BORDER ON FRIDAY THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS NOT SO CONVINCED AND INSTEAD SHOWS A PIEDMONT TROUGH BEING THE MORE DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE. IF SO THEN SWRLY FLOW COULD BE BOLSTERED EVEN TO THE POINT WHERE SOME FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED OVER MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHOULD THIS FEATURE NOT GROW AS STRONG THEN THE FLOW MAY NOT GROW MUCH STRONGER ON FRIDAY AND INSTEAD SLIGHTLY VEER IN RESPONSE TO THE SAGGING YET DECELERATING BOUNDARY. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRENGTH MAY BE MODULATED BY WHERE THE BOUNDARY REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM STALLS. IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE IT REMAINS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY ALSO WASH OUT OR WEAKEN WHEN COMPARED TO ITS POSSIBLE STRENGTH LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RAN SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DL/RAN

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