Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 271917 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 317 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN. A RAINY START TO THE MONTH OF MAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...SO FAR ONLY A PAIR OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF WILMINGTON. VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS MANY MORE TOWERING CUMULUS DOTTING THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPS NEAR +14C ARE ABOUT 4C ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPS A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 1000-2500 FEET ALOFT WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS NEAR 35 KNOTS AT 1500 FEET. THESE LOW LEVEL JETS TEND TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER TURBULENT WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS REMAINING QUITE WARM AS A RESULT. TONIGHT`S LOWS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST...11-13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO TODAY. WHAT SHOULD CHANGE IS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AROUND NOON. THIS DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE A BIT FASTER IN TODAY`S 12Z MODELS THAN IT WAS A COUPLE DAYS AGO...AND I AM CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE OVERFORECASTING POPS SOMEWHAT WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY. OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING...PEAKING IN COVERAGE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT 40-50 PERCENT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW...MAINLY TIED TO THE 30 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE MID-LEVELS. BULK SHEAR COMPUTED ACROSS THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS LESS THAN 30 KNOTS WHICH IS TYPICALLY THE THRESHOLD VALUE AT WHICH I START TO TAKE NOTICE. SPC IS MAINTAINING A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS A VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF THE SE UNITED STATES INCLUDING THE CAROLINAS. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...PERHAPS WORKING ON LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE 850-600 MB LAYER. POPS 30-40 PERCENT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AS SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE MAY BE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOP WELL INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE DOWN THIS WAY DURING THE EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BLEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH POPS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING FRIDAY BUT NO COLD ADVECTION YET LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND! BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT A BETTER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SHOULD PREVENT ANY ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SUBTLE RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP RIDGING DEVELOPS OUT WEST WITH TROUGHING TO THE EAST. GUIDANCE WAVERING BACK AND FORTH ON A DECENT RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT WE ARE MAINTAINING THE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HELP SOME AREAS RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH A MUCH WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER. HELD ONTO THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS TO ADDRESS. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 18Z...VFR THIS VALID PERIOD AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE LOCALLY. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL PERSIST SW WINDS TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS INLAND...20 KTS AT THE COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE WILL CAUSE LOCAL BACKING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS WELL. SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE COAST...AND ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION FROM LBT/FLO AS CHANCE OF THE TERMINAL RECEIVING ANY SHOWERS TODAY IS QUITE LOW. WOULD PREFER TO HANDLE WITH A BRIEF AMD IF NECESSARY FOR ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS THAT MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY SHOWERS. WINDS WILL EASE TONIGHT TO 5-10 KTS FROM THE SW...AND SOME MID LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL NOT CREATE ANY RESTRICTIONS HOWEVER. AFTER DAYBREAK...SW WINDS AGAIN BECOME GUSTY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CUMULUS AND A MID-LEVEL CIG FORECAST. SHOWER POTENTIAL INCREASES ON THURSDAY...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION IN CURRENT TAF SET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. A STRONG SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALREADY PRODUCED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 24 KT AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. WINDS COULD INCREASE ANOTHER COUPLE OF KNOTS BETWEEN NOW AND 6 PM...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH DOWN TO A STEADY 15 KNOTS BY LATE THIS EVENING AS INLAND-TO-MARINE AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE EVEN OUT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. SEAS CURRENTLY MEASURED AROUND 3 FEET CONSIST MAINLY OF 5-SECOND WIND WAVES WITH A SMALLER CONTRIBUTION FROM A 10-11 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL. WHILE 3 FEET DOESN`T SOUND TOO LARGE...5-SECOND PERIODS ARE QUITE CHOPPY CAN BE PUNISHING TO SMALLER BOATS. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH A HEALTHY AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED NEAR THE BEACHES. THERE SHOULD BE MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD ENSURE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE BEACHES AND OFFSHORE. THE WEAKENING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IN TWO STAGES: A WIND SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL TURN WINDS NORTHWESTERLY...FOLLOWED VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BY A FRONTAL SURGE FROM THE NORTHEAST THAT WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS INITIALLY FOR MOST OF SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY. A TYPICAL UPTICK AHEAD OF A FRONT MONDAY AND TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN DIRECTION WILL OCCUR. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY BRIEFLY ON THE HIGHER END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. OTHERWISE A GENERAL 10-15 RANGE WILL SUFFICE. NO SURPRISING TRENDS WITH REGARDS TO SEAS WITH A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...JDW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.