Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 240542 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1240 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COASTAL FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BEFORE DAYBREAK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS WITH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY. CLEARING IS EXPECTED CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS LIFTING THROUGH NE SOUTH CAROLINA AND SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE...AND RECENT HRRR RUNS AGREE WITH THE 00Z NAM THAT MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD DEVELOP INLAND BETWEEN 10-12Z...AND AT THE COAST BETWEEN 12-15Z. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY RISE THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG ADVECTION ACROSS THE BEACHES LATE TONIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS... HAVE CANCELED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER LAND AREAS BUT CONTINUED THE DENSE FOG ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. WILL NEED TO RE-LOOK AT VSBY AND FOG TRENDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS PRIOR TO 1 AM WED OF WHETHER TO NIX THE DENSE FOG OR EXTEND IT. VSBY TRENDS OVER LAND AREAS OF THE ILM CWA HAVE IMPROVED A GOOD DEAL FROM THE BEGINNING OF THIS EVENING SHIFT. LOW STRATUS WITH CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 500 FT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT. ARE LOW TEMPS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS THE ILM CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. A SLOW RISE IN TEMPS THROUGH THE PREDAWN WED HOURS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COASTAL TROF/FRONT MOVING ONSHORE. SFC COASTAL FRONT/TROF IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE ILM CWA COASTLINE ATTM...AND IS LOCATED AT ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 NM OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES. THE NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE IE. WEAK WEDGE...CONTINUES TO EXTEND NE-SW ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO WANT TO BREAK DOWN THIS WEDGY DOWN TONIGHT...WITH THE NAM CONTINUING TO BE THE FASTEST OUT OF THE AVBL MODELS. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING...IN THAT A SLOWER BREAK DOWN OF THIS WEDGE CAN BE EXPECTED. EXPECT A SLIGHT ONSHORE AND/OR INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE COASTAL TROF PRIOR TO IT WASHING OUT. SYNOPTIC SE-S FLOW SHOULD OVERTAKE THE ILM CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED HOURS. OVERRUNNING TYPE RAINS TO CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS BEING ADVERTISED. WILL CONTINUE THE BLANKET DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING...AND MAKE THE NECESSARY CALL AT THE NEXT UPDATE TO POSSIBLY EXTEND IT DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED HOURS. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR TONIGHTS LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 333 PM TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE THIS PERIOD REMAINS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO KICK-OFF WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHOT AT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WITH SHARP COLUMN DRYING INTO DAYBREAK THU. TSTMS DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY ARE APT TO BE HINDERED BY AN OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...AND POTENTIALLY PRE-EXISTING RAIN-COOLED AIR. HEIGHT FALLS HOWEVER MORE IN EARNEST WILL COMMENCE WEDNESDAY EVENING DIRECTLY AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. 21Z-05Z/4PM-MIDNIGHT REPRESENTS THE BEST WINDOW FOR POTENTIALLY A SQUALLY LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS MOVING FROM SW TO NE RESPECTIVELY. QPF ASSESSMENT AND BEST GUESS POINTS TO 1-2 INCHES STORM TOTAL RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH CLEARING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ATYPICAL TEMP CURVES EXPECTED...AS TEMPERATURE RISE RISE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH LATE DAY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AT DAYBREAK CHRISTMAS WILL ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES...FOLLOWED BY MORE TYPICAL NIGHT TIME MINIMUMS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDE SPREAD 30S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 333 PM TUESDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE STRONG RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. OUR CWA WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE AXIS MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO NEAR BERMUDA BY SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER SUNDAY. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ATTENDANT WITH THIS FRONT. AFTER A FEW DAYS OF SUNSHINE...ITS SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. I CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE POPS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY WHEN THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. FORCING WILL BE COMPRISED OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND EMBEDDED JET STREAKS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE BEST PERIOD OF FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SO THE MORE BROAD APPROACH WORKS BEST FOR NOW. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS A RELATIVELY WARM COUPLE OF DAYS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NUMBERS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE RETURN OF MOISTURE AND THE RETURN OF A VERY WEAK WEDGE EQUALS MUCH COOLER READINGS WITH HIGHS AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AND LOWS ABOVE AS THE DIURNAL RANGES BECOME MUTED WITH THE MOISTURE. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 06Z...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT SHRA ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE FLUCTUATING PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS SHOW INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS 10-12Z INLAND AND 12-15Z AT THE COAST. DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING OF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS OR TSRA...HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN GOING FORECAST. GENERALLY SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN TO SEE RAINFALL TAPER OFF AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRECIP ENDING NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING TO THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN RETURNING SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH NOON. 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS NOW SHOWING UP AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE DENSE FOG AS THEY ADVECT ACROSS THE VERY COLD SEA SURFACE CLOSER TO SHORE. OTHERWISE JUST WATCHING THE WARM FRONT LIFT THROUGH WITH VEERING WINDS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE WITH MODELS SHOWING HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER DAYBREAK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1100 PM FOLLOWS... HAVE CONTINUED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 1 AM. WILL NEED TO RE-ASSES THE FOG SEVERITY BY 1 AM OF WHETHER TO EXTEND IT OR DISCONTINUE IT. SSTS ARE IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH HIGHER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO ADVECT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...AREAS OF FOG WITH LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS SOME LOCALES WILL CONTINUE. MARINE TRAFFIC IN FOG IS QUITE SERIOUS ESPECIALLY IF BOATERS ARE NAVIGATING THROUGH AREA INLETS OR ALONG THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY. AT THE MOMENT...THE COASTAL FRONT/TROF LIES 5 TO 10 NM OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW THIS FRONT OSCILLATING AND MAKING ITS PROGRESS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED HOURS...WITH THE NAM THE QUICKEST MODEL. AS THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME SE-S ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KT+ SPEEDS. DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL PLAGUE MARINE TRAFFIC THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 333 PM TUESDAY...ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SETTLE AND THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY IN MODERATE WNW WIND. SEAS HEIGHTS TO PEAK AROUND MIDNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 4-8 FEET AND HIGHEST OUTER PORTION WHERE MILDER SSTS ARE LIKELY TO PROMOTE BETTER MIXING FROM STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSS THE 0-20 NM WATERS. THE LARGEST WAVES WILL BE TIED TO THE STRONG S WIND-WAVES WED/WED NIGHT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 333 PM TUESDAY...VERY LIGHT WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL DIRECTION CHANGES. INITIALLY A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...A WEAK WEDGE FRONT SHIFTS WINDS YET AGAIN TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY. ALL SPEEDS SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW TEN KNOTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY WHEN A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS DEVELOPS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE REFLECTIVE OF THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS WITH GENERALLY 1-3 FEET TROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...DCH/DRH/TRA SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL/TRA

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