Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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731 FXUS62 KILM 030521 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1221 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be reinforced from the northwest and as a result the weather will remain dry and cool through early Sunday. The high will move offshore Sunday night. A strong and complex low pressure system will likely bring good soaking rains to the forecast area early to mid next week. A strong cold front late next week will usher in the coldest and driest air of this late Autumn season thus far. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 915 PM Friday...The sfc trof, or one could even call it a reinforcing cold front, drops south across the ILM CWA from late this evening thru and during the pre-dawn Sat hours. This can be seen with the latest RAP model using its progged sfc pressure pattern and 1000-850mb thickness fields respectively. Around midnight, the RAP 1000-850mb thickness fields range from 1325 northern portions to 1342 southern portions of the ILM CWA. By daybreak Sat, the 1000-850mb thickness fields drop to 1312 north portions and 1330 south portions of the ILM CWA. The FA will get some decent CAA and slightly lower sfc dewpoints but will be short-lived, ending by midday Sat. Only clouds for tonight will be mainly thin Cirrus given upstream trends and various model rh time height displays across the FA thru Sat morning. Have only lightly massaged the latest min temp fcst and the hourly sfc temps and dewpoints. Mainly as a result of the sfc winds decoupling prior to the sfc trof passage later tonight. This a result of the decent rad cooling conditions and winds having decoupled ahead of the sfc trof. Previous................................................... As of 215 PM Friday...Dry, zonal flow across the Eastern United States will continue through the remainder of the afternoon and tonight. The bulk of the column will remain dry however some cirrus will potentially overspread the area overnight as a storm system across the Southwest United States begins to direct some moisture toward the Carolinas. Scattered cirrus and just enough wind will likely hinder optimal radiational cooling tonight, nevertheless the typical cool spots may dip into the lower to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Friday...The atmosphere will be in transition during the short term period as high pressure loses its influence to a developing coastal front and approaching southern stream system. As a result, rain chances will be on the rise, especially by Sunday night given the proximity of the coastal front and increasing isentropic lift. Followed a blend of MAV/MET numbers for the highs/lows each period, however expect non-diurnal temp trends along the coast Sunday night with the coastal front moving onshore late. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM Friday...Very active weather slated for the long term with some minor uncertainties yet to be hashed out. Monday`s weather will be quite unsettled with high pressure to our north being overrun by moderately strong warm advection. Rainfall should initially be light to moderate as there is little deep layer forcing and all of the resulting upglide will be confined to the lower levels. Rainfall rates increase heading into Tuesday as height fall and PVA deepen the ascent. The interplay between two surface lows may dictate temperatures and their positions are not agreed upon superbly between various guidance. Drying should be rapid Tuesday night as this conglomerate system lifts northward. Wednesday and Thursday will feature a series of moisture-deprived cool fronts moving through from the northwest. The latest front Thursday night will usher in some true Arctic air. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 06Z...High confidence in VFR through the valid period. High pressure ridging into the area from the west will be the dominant weather feature, maintaining dry weather and VFR. A surge of northerly winds are expected a few hours either side of dawn, and have added tempo wind gusts of 15-20 kts at all terminals, but otherwise winds will become generally from the north at 6-10 kts. High level cloud cover streaming from the west will gradually lower into mid-level cigs, but this is not expected until Saturday night. Extended Outlook...A storm system will bring periods of MVFR/IFR late Sunday through Tuesday. VFR Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 PM Friday...SCEC for the ILM NC waters remains in effect. The winds and seas have been tweaked to take into the account of the passage of a sfc trof or weak cold front, dropping from south to north late this evening and into the overnight hrs. After its passage, winds will veer to the NW-NNW at 15 to possibly 20 kt across the ILM NC Waters, and NNW to NNE at 10-15 kt and possibly up to 20 kt. Significant seas initially will have an influence from a weak SE 1 to 1.5 foot, 8 second period ground swell. After the passage of the sfc trof, locally produced 3 to 5 second period wind waves will become dominate. Previous.................................................. As of 215 PM Friday...Surface high pressure will continue to build across the waters from the W-NW through tonight. A minor surge will build south across the waters generally after midnight. The increase in northerly winds as a result of the surge will allow for a period of Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions primarily for the NC waters which will carry into the short term period. Along the Cape Fear waters seas are expected to build to 4-5 ft, especially away from the inshore waters given the orientation of the fetch. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Friday...Northerly winds will diminish during Saturday afternoon as high pressure builds eastward. The high will slowly progress off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday night allowing the flow to veer to a northeasterly direction beginning late Saturday night. A coastal front will become better established by Sunday night and as it lifts northward the wind is expected to sharply veer to a southerly direction late in the period. Seas of 4 to 5 ft Saturday morning off the Cape Fear coast will subside during the afternoon. Seas should remain below 3 feet during Sunday then begin to build again Sunday night. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As OF 3 PM Friday... Winds will be light on Monday but the wind direction is uncertain. High pressure to our north will be eroding along the coast as a coastal warm front develops ahead of low pressure developing over the Gulf. By Tuesday the winds should swing to the south and ramp up to where wind or seas will necessitate Small Craft Advisory. Wind turns offshore by Wednesday and decreases as dual-barreled high pressure lifts out to the north. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH/SRP SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...JDW MARINE...

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