Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 170959 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 559 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will continue to cover the eastern United States through the week. Gusty winds and showers will brush the coast today as Hurricane Jose lift north, passing well off the coast today through Monday. Swell from Jose will produce an increased rip current risk into early this week. Temperatures will remain above normal through much of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Sunday...We will begin to feel the peripheral effects from Jose as it moves northward. Increasing moist on shore flow will bring clouds and intermittent gusty winds and showers over the coastal Carolinas, remaining mainly east of I95 corridor. The latest track keeps the center about 390 miles to the east of the tip of Cape Fear as it passes by today through Monday. Current radar shows convection flaring out toward the Gulf Stream and moving slowly toward the coast. Looking at satellite, the best convection associated with Jose remains almost 400 miles off to the E-SE early this morning. A solid E to NE wind field up to 40 to 50 kts in the low to mid levels extending outward around the top side of Jose will aid in pushing increasing moisture in the way of clouds and showers on shore today, but as Jose moves north and winds shift around more to the north by later today, there will be a greater amount of dry air advecting over the area. Therefore, expect clouds and showers to dissipate through this afternoon into this evening along the coast. Pcp water values up near 2 inches along coastal NC this morning will drop to near 1.6 inches by this evening. Pcp water values remain near 1.25 inches or below in drier air and northerly flow well inland. And looking at the moisture profiles and soundings, expect mainly some mid level clouds to reach inland this afternoon with most places seeing a good deal of sunshine and clearing out into tonight. Some shallow moisture will be present into the overnight hours and therefore expect some low clouds around closer to the coast tonight where winds should remain higher. Fog will be limited to inland areas and wind sheltered places. Temps should reach 80 and 85 most places with warmest temps inland where there will be more in the way of sunshine. Temps will drop to mid 60s but closer to 70 along the beaches. Basically the risk from Jose is confined to offshore and the beaches. The beaches are expected to experience frequent and strong rip currents through today. Also, the surf will be rough with steep breakers, resulting from long period swell.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday...The short term period will be characterized by dry and warm weather, with near to slightly above-normal temperatures and partly cloudy skies. During this period Hurricane Jose will be plying a generally northerly course well offshore of the Carolinas, with a broad and weak ridge dominating eastern CONUS. Subsidence and a drying column in the wake of Jose will put a lid on convection with nothing more than a spot afternoon shower likely. Temperatures will be seasonal, with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s for both days. The greatest impact from Jose is expected to be an enhanced rip current risk along the beaches due to the long period swell generated by this storm. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 245 PM Saturday...The center of high pressure will become elongated as it shifts from northwest of the area to the northeast for the weekend. The weather for the period will depend more on the mid-level pattern as opposed to surface features. Lingering mid level moisture late next week in conjunction with a shortwave dropping southeast after topping weak 5h ridge to the west may be sufficient for development of diurnal convection Thu and Fri. Late in the period drier air aloft spreads over the region as the ridge expands east. Confidence in this solution is not high and so the inherited silent pop for Thu and Fri will be maintained. High temperatures a couple degrees above climo early in the period will trend toward climo late next week while low temperatures remain above climo through the period. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 12Z...Low to Moderate confidence patchy MVFR cigs moving in to our coastal terminals this morning from the north and east based on latest obs, satellite and radar loops. Confidence not high as multi-level cloud cover may be masking extent of stratus layer as it impinges upon the area. Anticipate there will be some amending of the TAFs this morning as the sun rises and the picture becomes clearer. In addition, showers moving ashore this morning may impact ILM early this morning, followed by CRE and MYR later this morning or early afternoon. Extended Outlook...Drier air will make its way over most of the terminals in northerly flow and increasing subsidence on the back end of Jose as it moves off to the north Monday. The center is forecast to remain close to 400 miles east of the coast. May see some IFR ceilings along the coast Mon night and Tues night near daybreak as well as greater chc of fog inland where winds will be lower. Otherwise expect VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday...As Jose begins the trek northward winds will begin to veer more to the N-NE between it and high pressure reaching down from the north today. Expect NE winds up to 15 to 20 kt across the waters through today as gradient tightens further. Seas will remain high and will increase a bit further in combination of increasing northerly winds and longer period SE Swell. The wind direction will be NNE to NE through today but will back to the north through tonight as Jose moves farther north. Frying Pan buoy was showing seas up to 8 ft early this morning with N-NE winds 18 gusting to 23 kts and a SE swell with a period of 14 seconds. WNA shows seas peaking around 8 to 10 ft in outer waters this evening. A Small Craft Advisory for hazardous Seas will continue for the long period up to 12 to 14 second SE swell from Jose continuing through at least tonight. Long period swell will cause inlet turbulence during the outgoing tidal flows, and breaking of larger than normal waves near shallow areas and sand bars. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday...Expect a Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas will be in effect through at least the initial half of the Short Term as long period swell from distant Hurricane Jose impacts the waters. Winds will remain below Advisory criteria through this period, peaking at 15 to 20 kts from the N on Monday as Jose passes east of the Carolinas. Even so, Jose will remain distant from the waters, moving in a generally northerly track through the near term. It is possible that advisory criteria may extend into Tuesday, but confidence is low at this point. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 PM Saturday...Winds will be 10 kt or less through mid week as surface high pressure shifts east, passing north of the waters Wed and leading to the development of a southerly flow. Long period swells from Jose will linger through the period. Both swell and wind wave will gradually decrease through the period. Seas will drop from 2 to 4 ft very early Wed down to 1 to 3 ft Wed aftn and Thu. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for SCZ054-056. NC...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NCZ106-108-110. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...III AVIATION...REK MARINE...REK/III/RGZ

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