Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 240204 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1004 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Waves of low pressure will continue to move along stalled cold front producing a good chance of showers and thunderstorms through mid week. Another cold front trailing from a deep low pressure system over the Ohio Valley on Thursday will cross the area, bringing the final round of showers to the area. High pressure will build in late Thursday into Friday maintaining quieter weather for much of the weekend. Low pressure may affect the area early next week producing more unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1000 PM Tuesday...The initial wave of heavy rain and thunderstorms this afternoon apparently took more out of the atmosphere than I realized. Despite model analysis still showing elevated CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg across the area, showers have become quite anemic looking on radar. Lighting is currently confined to a line of convection 30-50 miles offshore where there is surface-based CAPE over 1500 J/kg. The synoptic quasi-stationary front current extends across the Albemarle Sound southwestward to near Greenville NC, Southern Pines, and on westward toward Charlotte. Deep moisture over the area should thin out aloft overnight as a dry slot extending down as low as 5000 feet AGL advects in from the west. This dry air has already cleared precipitation out of Georgia and South Carolina south and west of Columbia and Augusta. Two final curved bands of showers should sweep northeastward across the eastern Carolinas overnight. Heavy rainfall potential appears to have waned inland, however along the coast there is still some potential for heavy rainfall given the possibility of training along the South Carolina beaches up into Cape Fear between 11 PM and 2 AM. Changes to the forecast with this late evening update mainly centered on adjusting forecast PoPs, QPF, and weather based on extrapolation of latest radar trends. Note: A storm survey will be performed Wednesday in the Parkton community of northern Robeson County where a shower produced wind damage between 345 and 400 PM this afternoon. The observed damage near Parkton connects up with a long trail of damage reports that extends eastward through Cumberland and Sampson counties that appears to have been tornadic. We`ll have more details after the survey tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Deep moisture associated with cold front now progged to get shunted offshore more quickly than previously thought early Wednesday night and this period should mark the end of appreciable rainfall. Light shower activity will persist but in a more spotty fashion thereafter as increasingly strong PVA and height falls impinge from the west. In fact, the coverage and intensity should pick up midday Thursday as the fairly impressive 32 s-1 vort and -21C trough axis swings through at 500mb. In fact this energy swings through so quickly that the low level CAA shuts off Thursday night but not before dropping enough to support some lows in the upper 50s with low 60s along beaches. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Plenty of dry air will move in with deep westerly flow on the back end of exiting low pressure system on Fri. Pcp water values drop down to .75 inches or below early Fri but do creep back up over an inch by late Friday. Overall expect a sunny dry day on Friday with temps reaching into the mid 80s. High pressure ridge to the south will reach up into the Carolinas maintaining pleasant weather through much of the weekend. A shortwave rides across the top of the ridge over the weekend mainly remaining north of the forecast area. This could produce some clouds or a spotty shower late Sat into Sat night, mainly over NC. The GFS builds the ridge a little farther north and therefore holds any weather farther to the north with a deep warm southerly flow and sunnier weather overall all weekend. A deeper mid to upper trough digs down late in the weekend and could produce an increase of clouds and showers Sun through Tues timeframe. Will have to see how the models evolve. For now, will keep chc of shwrs north of area through Sat night but will include Pops for Sun through Tues. The building ridge and westerly downslope flow through the mid levels will produce above normal temps through much of the period with temps reaching above 90 in spots especially over the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 00Z Tuesday...Showers and embedded thunderstorms this evening should move east and offshore after 05-07Z tonight as a surge of drier air in the mid levels moves overhead. Until then, convective showers and possibly thunderstorms could produce MVFR visibilities at times. Plenty of low level moisture should result in ceilings lowering to 500-1000 feet overnight. The best potential for these IFR ceilings will be inland affecting the FLO and LBT airports, with the least potential at MYR and CRE. Showers and embedded thunderstorms should return after 13-16Z Wednesday as deeper moisture builds back overhead from the southwest. Extended Outlook...Reduced flight categories will be possible in periodic showers and thunderstorms into Thursday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1000 PM Tuesday...Small craft advisory conditions should still develop shortly as a wave of low pressure moves along a stalled front inland. Waves of showers and thunderstorms should continue through 3-4 AM before drier air building overhead from the west begins to erode the rain threat. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Solid small craft advisory conditions Wednesday night in not only a moderately pinched gradient but also an environment characterized by increased wind fields aloft leading to vertical momentum transfer. So now peak wind gusts may attain 35kt but at this time they do not appear to be near frequent enough to warrant Gale Warning. Frontal passage comes early Thursday leading to a veering to the west and a gradual decrease in sustained wind speeds. The upper trough meanwhile may persist the gustiness factor into the early afternoon. Winds may tick up a category in speed in the CAA Thursday night, likely continuing the Advisory. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...A stronger off shore westerly flow on Friday will diminish and back around to the W-SW through the day as low pressure system exits farther off to the east and high pressure builds up from the south. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will diminish to 2 to 4 ft through Friday and down below 3 ft by Fri night in weakening offshore flow. High pressure south of the area waters will shift east through the weekend into early next week producing a persistent SW return flow. Initially winds will only be 10 kts or so but low pressure moving by to the north Sat night into Sun and an approaching cold front late in the weekend into early next week may produce an increase in SW winds. Seas less than 3 ft Saturday in lighter winds will rise up to 3 to 5 ft in increasing SW winds Sat night into Sun. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-053>056. Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for SCZ054- 056. NC...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for NCZ106- 108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...TRA

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