Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 250546 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 146 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY. MILD SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BELOW FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A SLOW WARMUP WILL FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 145 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW: MAINLY SMALL CALIBRATIONS TO THE FORECAST TO T/TD/MIN-TEMPS FOR THE EVENING UPDATE INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. WITH ONSHORE FLOW HOLDING E-ENE BUMPED UP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE COAST GIVEN PRESENT IN-SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES. TIME HEIGHT DEPICTION OF RH/WIND CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SE WINDS WITH OVER- RUNNING IN 5-6 KFT WHICH SHOULD HELP GENERATE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE ACCOUNTED FOR AND THE GENERAL FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE PREVIOUS EVENING DISCUSSION CONTINUES. AFTER A PLEASANT AND SEASONABLE EVENING FEATURING CLEAR SKIES CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BASICALLY FROM SE TO NW OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A RESULT OF THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS PAIRED WITH THE COMMENCEMENT OF WEAK UPGLIDE IN THE LEVELS ABOVE THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER. A FEW SHOWERS NOTED CURRENTLY ON RADAR ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING...AND SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO ADVECT A FEW OF THESE ASHORE. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AS THEY WOULD HAVE A HARD TIME TRAVERSING THE COOLER NEARSHORE SHELF WATERS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD HOWEVER A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE DUE TO THE UPGLIDE LEADING TO DEEPER MOISTURE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST AND PUSH INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COASTAL FRONT IN THE AREA...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEN FRONTAL FORCING COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE CHANCE OR LESS...PEAKING AT AROUND 50 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE NEXT TWO DAYS COULD SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN...TEMPS WILL BE WARM WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S POSSIBLE THURSDAY. AREAS NEARER THE WATER WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER BOTH DAYS. MINS EACH MIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. TIMING OF FROPA AND POST FRONTAL PRECIP REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF CHC POP INTO FRI BUT MUCH OF THE AREA IS LIKELY TO BE DRY BY MIDDAY WITH ONLY THE COAST POSSIBLY HOLDING ONTO RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH TEMPS TUMBLING ON FRI. FRI HIGHS IN SOME AREAS COULD END UP BEING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THU NIGHT LOWS. COLD ADVECTION IS REINVIGORATED FRI NIGHT BY PASSAGE OF IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE. THE WAVE SLIDES NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUT CONTAINS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION THAT SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY. SOUNDINGS DATA SUGGESTS IT MAY BE JUST A LITTLE TOO WARM FOR PRECIP TO BE IN A FROZEN STATE SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LIQUID. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR IS NOT VERY FAR AWAY AND CANNOT SAY FROZEN WONT HAPPEN AT THIS POINT. ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -10C SAT INTO SUN. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH MID 50S SAT AND SUN...SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO DESPITE PLENTY OF LATE MARCH SUNSHINE. NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST SAT NIGHT AND LOWS SUN MORNING ARE LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. 850 TEMP AND PARTIAL THICKNESS SCHEMES SUGGEST LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NOT PLANNING TO GO QUITE THAT LOW BUT WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN AND IT APPEARS A HARD FREEZE IS QUITE POSSIBLE. SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE DURING SUN WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE TOO LATE TO AFFECT HIGHS SUN BUT WILL HELP MODERATE SUN NIGHT TEMPS. LOWS WILL STILL END UP BELOW CLIMO BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. DURATION OF RETURN FLOW IS LIMITED AS COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MON OR MON NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIP AHEAD OF IT. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED DRY FORECAST WITH POP RIGHT AROUND 10. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUE BUT AIRMASS IS NOT OF ARCTIC ORIGIN AND TEMPS WILL END UP NEAR CLIMO. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MVFR/IFR DUE MAINLY TO LOW CIGS LATE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. EXPECT THE CONTINUATION OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWS FOR INCREASING MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP DUE TO MAINLY LOW CIGS...WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE AT KMYR/KCRE. AFTER DAYBREAK...MVFR/IFR IN THE MORNING WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO MVFR...WITH LOW CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DIPPING DOWN BACK TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY EVENING. EXPECT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AOB 12 KTS TO CONTINUE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING IFR CEILINGS ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. PREDOMINATELY VFR FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 145 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: THE STRONG ONSHORE COMPONENT IN ESE FLOW PAIRED WITH LONG FETCH SWELL ENERGY HAS KEPT SEAS ELEVATED ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE. OUT AT 41013 SEAS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET BELOW 5.5 FT JUST RECENTLY. INSHORE 3-4 FT CAN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. NO HEADLINES FOR THE 0-20NM WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...ON SHORE EASTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME S TO SW BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST LAST THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT SEAS COULD TOUCH 6 FT AT 20 NM THURSDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS DURING FRI. DEVELOPMENT OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT FRI WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR DUE TO SHORTWAVE PASSAGE FRI NIGHT COULD LEAD TO MARINE HEADLINES AT SOME POINT LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH A BRIEF SECONDARY COLD SURGE. CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS CONDITIONS JUST BELOW THRESHOLDS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW PEAKING AT 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS/SEAS IF COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SUN WITH OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SEAS DROPPING TO 1 TO 3 FT.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAN NEAR TERM...MJC/REK/MBB SHORT TERM...RAN LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SGL MARINE...III/RAN

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