Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 130836 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 336 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Chilly and damp weather will hold across the area through Wednesday morning. A warm front passage Wednesday night and early Thursday, combined with intrusion of a large Gulf upper ridge, will open the door for very warm daytime temperatures Thursday and Friday, possibly around 80 on Friday inland. Canadian high pressure in wake of a strong cold front Friday night, will bring much cooler temperatures next weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 336 AM Tuesday...Cold front has moved south of the area with high pressure building down the coast. Typical wedge setup with low level northeast flow helping maintain the cold dense surface air mass. Meanwhile, just above the surface, southerly flow will continue spreading warmer air over the surface cold dome. Low clouds and northeast flow will keep highs well below climo today while the abundance of moisture from 2k ft to 5k ft will contribute to periods of light drizzle and may even result in some isolated patches of light rain during the midday to afternoon hours. Forcing is very weak so any rain that does fall would be minimal as far as QPF goes. However, on and off light drizzle will be possible throughout the period. High building down the coast keeps the gradient pinched and northeast flow approaching 15 mph at times will keep conditions chilly. Winds will diminish a little for the evening and overnight, but boundary layer winds combined with cloud cover will work to keep lows near to slightly above climo.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 336 AM Tuesday...Chief caption this time period, `Warming Trend`. Nippiness holding on early Wednesday, but temperatures will claw several degrees above climatology maximums by the mid afternoon. A weak warm front will lift early Thursday with only light rain spritzes anticipated, patchy DZ at times. The stage is then set for a surge of Gulf region air to surge into the Carolinas, with readings into the 70s Thursday afternoon, in moderate SW breezes, more southerly, and gusty near the coast, and cooler because of SST influence. Mid-levels look to remain dry, preventing appreciable pop values this period, aside from possibly a 0.01" reading with the warm front passage early on Thursday. Mix-layered clouds will keep temperatures leveled in the low to mid 70s Thursday afternoon. Warm air advection will strengthen late Thursday, with very mild minimums early Friday.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Monday...High pressure will remain off the Southeast coast while ridge builds up from the GOM. This will produce unseasonably warm weather into Fri in a deep W-SW flow. The 850 temps will reach near 15C early Fri with a decent westerly downslope flow, guidance showing temps hitting 80 in spots inland Fri afternoon. Some moisture will spill over the ridge aloft and should produce some mainly mid to high clouds mixing the sun at times. Friday, the ridge gets suppressed south and east as a broad mid to upper trough over the upper mid west pushes a cold front south and east. The strong westerly component to the flow should help to limit the moisture through the column. Pcp water values reaches up near 1.5 inches in a narrow band just ahead of this front Fri aftn. Therefore, expect increasing clouds and showers through Fri aftn as front drops south and east through the area, but not a whole lot of QPF. The flow aloft remains westerly which should hold front up from making southward progress and could keep unsettled but cool weather around into the weekend. Temps should fall off behind front down to 40s overnight Fri and only making it into the 50s on Sat and Sun. This front should lift back north as a warm front Sun night into Mon with warming trend once again.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 06Z...Cold front is now south of the area with northeast flow firmly entrenched. Abundant low level moisture may lead to patchy on and off drizzle overnight but little measurable rainfall is anticipated. Low level winds in the 10 to 15 kt range, accompanied by an occasional gust to 20 kt, will prevent any fog development. Ceilings will hover on the low end of the MVFR range through the night with only coastal NC looking to have a chance for any periods of IFR. Surface high builds down the coast for Tue but low clouds and drizzle will linger in the region through the end of the TAF period. Northeast winds will persist in the 10 to 15 kt range. Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR possible through tonight. Mainly VFR Wednesday through Friday. Showers possible on Saturday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 336 AM Tuesday...Small craft advisory continues through 7 PM today and for now will leave end time unchanged. Northeast flow will continue through the period as high pressure ridges down the coast. Gradient over the waters will keep winds 20 to 25 kt through the afternoon before the slowly relaxing gradient allows winds to weaken. Speeds will be closer to 20 kt this evening before continuing to decrease overnight, eventually ending up 10 to 15 kt as the period ends. Seas will run 4 to 7 ft into the afternoon before starting to trend down. Later this afternoon seas will be down to 3 to 6 ft, before ending up 3 to 5 ft this evening and 2 to 4 ft by the end of the period. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 336 AM Tuesday...A nice marine period to begin, with weak veering flow early, becoming SW, then increasing Thursday and especially Thursday night ahead of an approaching strong cold front. It appears right now, a `small craft advisory` may be needed by Thursday evening for SW gusts to 25 KT. Seas this period, 3-4 feet in ESE waves every 9 seconds and light chop Wednesday. Increasing SW wind-seas will be trending Thursday into Friday. Thursday night 3-5 ft seas will grow to 6 ft offshore. Marine fog may plague portions of the inner waters Thursday as warm southerly flow inshore develops. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...Southwest to westerly return flow around high pressure located to the south and east of waters will increase Fri as pressure gradient tightens with approach of a cold front. This front will drop into the waters Fri night into Sat kicking the winds around to the N to NE behind it. May see SCEC or even SCA conditions in stronger SW flow ahead of front on Fri and again in NE flow behind front on Sat into Sat night. In addition, sea fog likely Fri in warm and moist SW flow over the cooler waters. The offshore flow will keep greatest seas possibly right beyond our local waters. Seas will diminish some upon frontal passage Fri night, but should increase again in northerly surge behind front on Sat up around 6 to possibly 7 ft.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...8 NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...III

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