Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 161926 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 326 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THAT DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING. THE DRIER AIR HAS ALLOWED FOR LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND GOOD HEATING AND WITH THAT INCREASING INSTABILITY. AS A CONSEQUENCE...A FEW SHOWERS/RUMBLE OF THUNDER HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP...PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WAS CROSSING THE TENNESSEE APPALACHIANS AT MID AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE EVE/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS...WILL SHOW POPS TRENDING DOWN DURING THE EARLY EVE ALONG THE COAST...BUT UPWARDS ACROSS INLAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95...FROM FLO TO LBT...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. GIVEN THE TIMING...WILL NOT GO AS BULLISH AS SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING...BUT WILL BRING POPS UP TO 30-40 PERCENT WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO DIMINISH TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR BELOW THRESHOLD FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER THROUGHOUT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PERSISTING. THEREAFTER...WILL ONLY INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH. MODEL PROFILES AND OTHER GUIDANCE ARE SUPPORTING STRATUS/FOG FILLING IN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING. AT THIS TIME WILL INCLUDE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR INLAND ZONES. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S...TO LOWER 70S ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG LINGERING FRONT WILL GET PUSHED FARTHER OFF SHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE TOP OF THE LOW WILL COME UP AGAINST W-NW FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THROUGH WED AND THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEFORE IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND POPS IN FORECAST ON WED. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH RUNNING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AND WILL LIFT FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WED INTO THURS. AS TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE COAST EARLY THURS...A DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYNG AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NE THROUGH LATE THURS. PCP WATER VALUES DROP FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES WED AFTN DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH BY THURS EVE. DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WED AFTN WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S THROUGH THURS. OVERALL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND MORE FALL LIKE WEATHER. AS AIR MASS TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS...SO WILL THE TEMPS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WED WILL BE WARMER THAN THURS NIGHT BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...MID 60S BOTH NIGHTS. TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 80S ON WED BUT ON THURS TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER EVEN WITH A GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...ON FRIDAY A LARGE AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL HAVE A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE VERY WEAK BUT STILL HAVE SOME SENSE OF TROUGHINESS. MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME TELLING HOW MUCH THIS TROUGHINESS ERODES THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS MANAGES TO FLING MOISTURE ASHORE AND HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE CMC. THE (00Z) ECMWF DOES THE SAME BUT WITH A MUCH SLOWER SENSE OF TIMING KEEPING MOST PLACES DRY TIL SUNDAY. WILL SHOW JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THESE DAYS. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO WASH OUT BY MONDAY AT WHICH TIME RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TO BEING TIED TO A DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TEMPS REBOUND TO NORMAL OR HIGHER. A COLD FRONT APPEARS SLATED FOR A MONDAY NIGHT ARRIVAL. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO KICK IN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING NE WINDS TO ESE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE RESULTANT...AND MAY STAY PINNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL END AROUND 22Z...MAINLY FOR DIURNAL REASONS. THE NAM KEEPS CONVECTION GOING TO OUR NORTH WELL INTO THE EVENING...BUT NOT REALLY ON BOARD WITH THIS SCENARIO...GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS. TONIGHT...MODELS ADVERTISE THE RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG...ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON THE INTENSITY. LOOKS LIKE THE INLAND TERMINALS STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK WEDGE TRIES TO SET UP. THE WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THU. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS. SWELL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SLOWLY BUILD FROM...2 TO 3 FT...UP TO 4 FT WITH A FEW 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS BY WED MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...10 KT OR LESS. THE DIRECTION WILL BE ENE TO EASTERLY...BACKING TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ASSERTIVE. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN E-NE WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND MORE EASTERLY. THE ON SHORE FLOW UP TO 10 KTS ON WED WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND A LONG PERIOD UP TO 16 SEC EASTERLY SWELL TO PUSH SEAS UP TO 2 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FTERS IN OUTER WATERS WED AFTN. THE LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL PEAK AROUND 16 SECONDS VERY EARLY WED AND WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH THURS. SEAS WILL ACTUALLY DROP SLIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY THURS BUT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NE WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THUR NIGHT SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SPIKE IN SEAS BY FRI MORNING. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MORE REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY. THE PINCHED NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT COULD YIELD A FEW ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT SEAS INTO NRN ZONES...BUT WNA GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND IT MAY BE QUITE MARGINAL. CURRENT FCST STILL SHOWING A RAMP UP TO 4 TO 6 THOUGH. WAVE SHADOWING WILL PRECLUDE ADVISORY OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STRENGTH. BORDERLINE SCEC/ADVISORY MAY CONTINUE OVER NRN ZONES INTO SATURDAY. FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIETER CONDITIONS COME SUNDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...RJD/DL

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