Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 241646 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1146 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE COAST TONIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. TEMPS WERE CLIMBING CLOSE TO 70 THIS MORNING UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. DEWPOINT TEMPS WERE WELL INTO THE 60S TRAILING CLOSE BEHIND THE TEMPS. BEST CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS LOCATED OVER INLAND AREAS WHERE SHOWERS WERE MORE SCATTERED FROM NW WILLIAMSBURG THROUGH FLORENCE INTO MARION HORRY AND COLUMBUS COUNTIES WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHWRS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 70S IN DEEP MOIST SW FLOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING AS GOOD. LLJ UP TO 45 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVERALL. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ZIP OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A SW STORM MOTION UP TO 40S KTS. WILL KEEP IN ISOLATED THUNDER AS WE CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE A LITTLE FURTHER WITH HEATING OF THE DAY AND SOME SPOTS MAY SEE ENHANCED HEATING WITH SOME THINNING OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST CONVERGENCE WILL ALIGN ITSELF WITH THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST BY MORNING. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WELL WEST OF LOCAL AREA BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED LIFT ALIGNED FROM SW TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND BY DAYBREAK IN WESTERN ZONES WITH CAA TO FOLLOW AFTER THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MOST PLACES. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON... AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING LATE IN THE DAY. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 12Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CREATING A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY...DISSIPATING A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD MORNING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST REACHING THE COAST RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. MODERATE S-SW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8 FT RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WNA SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING AS FRONT APPROACHES BY DAYBREAK WITH 15 TO 20 KTS DROPPING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT BY MORNING. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY. SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN SHOALS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...RAN LONG TERM...RAN AVIATION...DL

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