Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 031431 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1031 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE DATA AND AFTER AN ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDING DATA. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN COMBINATION WITH A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES SHOULD MAKE FOR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER WE GET SOME MORE HEATING. SPC NOW HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WX TODAY FOR OUR NC COUNTIES...AND AN ENHANCED RISK FOR OUR SC COUNTIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: THE FORECAST CHALLENGE SHIFTS TO CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN. THE NEW ECMWF IS A BIT FLATTER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AND KEEPS THE TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SPC SEEMS TO AGREE AND KEEPS ALL OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK HIGHLIGHTING THE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF TENNESSEE. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S EVENTS. MAINTAINED THE GOOD CHANCE POPS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS ONCE AGAIN FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WE SEEM TO GET INTO A LITTLE POCKET OF PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR ON SATURDAY. THAT`S NOT TO SAY THAT IT`S A RAIN-FREE DAY ESPECIALLY WITH SOME WEAKLY VORT-LADEN SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO APPRECIABLE QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY GRADED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SRN HALF TO 30-ISH POPS OVER NORTHERN HALF. MOST PLACES SHOULD WARM READILY INTO THE LOWER 90S. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IMPINGES UPON THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND THE FRONT DROPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NC. THE GFS PORTRAYS A MORE UNSETTLED DAY THAN THE WRF. THE LATTER HAS A RATHER LARGE VORTICITY MINIMUM COMING ACROSS BY 00Z THAT LOOKS A BIT SPURIOUS. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A BETTER DEFINED PIEDMONT TROUGH COMPARED TO THE WRF. OVERALL THE GFS APPEARS MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL LOGICAL AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT COULD KEEP THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY BY JULY STANDARDS. MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE A PIEDMONT TROUGH WORKS IN TANDEM WITH SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP SWRLY FLOW COULD BRING MORE CLOUDS THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NET EFFECT OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE TO TEMPER DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY WHILE BOLSTERING NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE MID LEVEL FEATURE WEAKENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND WE SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A REGIME WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND SURFACE MESOSCALE FEATURES ACT AS THE LONE CONVECTIVE INITIATORS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE.
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&& .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS. WITH WEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE THERE IS A CHANCE AT LEAST MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF YET. CIGS SHOULD DECREASE AND LIFT TO VFR MID-LATE MORNING. SW WINDS EXPECTED EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGESTING AN OVERALL WET DAY TODAY. THIS SEEMS LIKELY BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHERE EVEN WITHOUT HEATING SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN TAFS INTO THE EVENING WITH SHRA/VCTS/MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT AROUND 17Z AND AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO TIMING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ALTER THE SURFACE WIND FIELD GREATLY BUT EXPECT WINDS TO RECOVER AFTER SEVERAL HOURS TO AT PREDOMINATE SW DIRECTION. TSRA SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING BUT CANT DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SW AND COULD BE IFR STRATUS IN THE AM AGAIN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. ANTICIPATE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD ONCE THE LATEST DATA COMES IN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE WATERS AS EVEN 41013 IS NOW DOWN TO JUST OVER TEN KNOTS SUSTAINED. WILL LET THE HEADLINE CONTINUE UNTIL 1000 UTC. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN MUTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN CRANK UP ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A MARGINAL AND SHORT DURATION EVENT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS NORMALLY FOUND OFF OUR COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR COMPLIMENTS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY BY A FRONT IN THE MIDATLANTIC REGION. SOME ZONES MAY FLIRT WITH THE NEED FOR SCEC HEADLINES MAINLY AS ONE HEADS NORTH WHERE THE GRADIENT APPEARS TO TIGHTEN THE MOST. THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW APPEARS TO RELAX SUFFICIENTLY TO WHERE ANY SCEC HEADLINES WILL NO LONGER BE NEEDED. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...INLAND SURFACE TROUGHINESS APPEARS RATHER WEAK MONDAY AND TUESDAY LIKELY WASHED OUT IN PART BY THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR NORTH DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SEAS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT NOT ONLY DUE TO THE DOWN TICK IN WIND SPEED BUT ALSO THE DECREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FETCH ALONG THE EAST COAST.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...REK/SHK SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...MRR MARINE...99/REK/SHK

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