Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 281039 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 639 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU 9AM FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS...LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROJECTIONS...ALL INDICATE THE AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW VIA VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDING DATA IN THE VERTICAL...AND SHOULD ALL DISSIPATE BY 1300Z. A FULL DAYS WORTH OF INSOLATION IS IN STORE FOR THE FA AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS DURING TODAY. WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PROGGED IN THE 580S AND CORRESPONDING 1K-5H THICKNESSES IN THE 570S...WIDESPREAD 80S FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MIDDAY WITH SOME INLAND PENETRATION THIS AFTN...THUS LIMITING THE 80+ DEGREE HIGHS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INLAND WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SW WINDS WITH MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS LIMITED...MAX TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. RECORD HIGHS TODAY...TUESDAY OCT 28 2014... FLORENCE RECORD IS 86 SET IN 1991. NORTH MYRTLE BEACH RECORD IS 83 SET IN 1991...COULD BE REACHED IF THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED. WILMINGTON RECORD IS 87 SET IN 1984...WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT...ALLOWING INCREASING SW WINDS TO SET UP ALOFT. MODELS HINT AT A 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAMBUFR HOURLY SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE THIS JET AND ALSO THE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE SFC UP TO THE BASE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT...SFC FOG FORMATION...IF ANY...WILL BE PATCHY AND AT A MINIMUM. HOWEVER...A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM THIN CI WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVERHEAD...MAINLY ACROSS THE ILM NC COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANY ISOLATED NOCTURNAL SHRA REMAINING OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT MINS CLOSER TO THE HIGHER END OF THE AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...AND WENT EVEN A FEW DEGREES HIER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO ACTIVE ONSHORE SSW- SW WINDS HAVING CROSSED SSTS STILL IN THE 70S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE TO DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR SOME TIME HOWEVER. COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A SIGNIFICANT AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON. LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES. MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH MONDAY MORNING MAY BE EQUALLY COLD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM...AND THE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FROST LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AS WINDS EASE AND SOIL TEMPS DROP WITH THE UPCOMING COLD AIR...FROST IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60. ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT. EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
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
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096- 099-109-110. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DCH

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.