Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 170047 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 847 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY BRIEFLY REACH 32 DEGREES FOR ISOLATED INLAND LOCATIONS THAT ARE WIND PROTECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WAS WEDGING DOWN THE COAST AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVE. THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME OF THE TEMP GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT TEMPS COULD BOTTOM OUT AT OR NEAR 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. THE REASON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTING TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IS BECAUSE WE THINK WINDS WILL BE RELUCTANT TO FULLY DECOUPLE FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME. WINDS ABOVE 5 MPH WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXED ENVIRONMENT WHICH WOULD PRECLUDE TEMPS FROM REALIZING THEIR LOWEST POTENTIAL. THE LATEST ROUND OF THE COLDEST AVAILABLE TEMP GUIDANCE DID COME IN A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS NOT FORECASTING A FREEZE FOR ANY PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS...NO FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. ARGUING AGAINST A FROST ARE THE ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS... COMPARATIVELY WARM SOIL TEMPS...MID AND UPPER 50S...AND THE BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME TEMPS WILL BE AT LEVELS WHERE A FROST COULD DEVELOP. ISOLATED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES THAT ARE WIND PROTECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT COULD BRIEFLY REACH 32 DEGREES. CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EVE WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE WATERS POSSIBLY ADVECTING ONSHORE IN TIGHTENING NE FLOW OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOWS FOR TONIGHT...LATEST FORECAST LOWS: ILM...34...37 FLO...33...35 CRE...32...38
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL KICKOFF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REIGNS OVER THE AREA...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME DIURNAL CU AS NOTED BY FCST SOUNDINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO FRIDAY WILL DIP IN THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. A GRADUAL TRANSITION INTO THE NEXT WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ON FRIDAY AS LATEST GUIDANCE FOCUSES ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EVOLVING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...SET TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE AND MOVE OFFSHORE...CONTINUING ITS PROPAGATION AS A COASTAL LOW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...ITS PROJECTED PATH IN WHICH IT WILL POTENTIALLY AFFECT OUR AREA IS PAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BUT...DO EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING. CHANCES INCREASE EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AROUND 50.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE CROSSING FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. AS IT DOES SO LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...ELONGATED ALL THE DAY UP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SATURDAY THUS LOOKS FAIRLY UNSETTLED WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES AND QPF PROSPECTS ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS ALL TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THIS SEEMS TO HINGE MOSTLY ON HOW CUT OFF THE UPPER WAVE BECOMES. THE SEEMINGLY OPTIMISTIC GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM FAIRLY OPEN AND THUS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE IMPLYING DRYING AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES. THE CMC REPRESENTS THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM IN KEEPING THE SYSTEM CUTOFF AND FLINGING RAIN ASHORE THROUGH MONDAY. CUTOFFS DO TEND TO MOVE SLOWER THAN PROGGED AND SO WILL START TO LOWER TEMPS AND RAISE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN IDEA SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF. THE 12Z EC LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE...IT KEEPS PLENTY OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DRYING SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL NOT GO AS HIGH WITH RESPECT TO QPF THO AS THE EC OFTEN HAS A WET BIAS. MAY HAVE TO SHOW QUITE A GRADIENT COASTAL VS INLAND SINCE THE WRF SHOWS A WELL CUTOFF SYSTEM ALOFT BUT ALSO ALL OF THE MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH. BEYOND THE WEEKEND ATTENTION TURNS TO THE WEST. NEXT WEATHER-MAKING SYSTEM TO BE AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 6-10 KTS. CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING STRATOCU ALONG THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING AFTER 06Z...AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KILM/KCRE/KMYR AROUND DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY LOW TO MODERATE ATTM...SO WILL KEEP PREVAILING VFR AT THESE SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 06Z AND REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH DAYBREAK. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS WEDGED INTO THE CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 KTS DURING THE DAY. COULD SEE VFR CIGS DEVELOP AT THE COASTAL TERMS BY AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT AT LEAST PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL AS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW THE PERSISTENT NE FLOW TO STRENGTHEN. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FT. PORTIONS OF THE WATERS WHERE THE FETCH IS SEVERELY LIMITED IN NE FLOW...SUCH AS LONG BAY... WILL OBSERVE SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REIGN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR NORTHEAST FLOW TO PERSIST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. THUS HAVE KEPT SCA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NOW...THOUGH MAY NEED TO EXTEND EVEN FURTHER. ON FRIDAY SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP AND WINDS DECREASE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CROSSING FLORIDA ON SATURDAY DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL MODERATELY PINCH THE LOCAL GRADIENT. N TO NE WINDS RATHER GUSTY AND SHOULD SPONSOR ADVISORY-WORTHY SEAS. THE MAIN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY PROBABLY COMES ON SUNDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH OF THIS SETUP CAN PROGRESS EAST AND LEAD TO WEAKENING WINDS AND DIMINISHED SEAS. FOR NOW WILL SHOW THIS TREND BUT SOME MODELS ARE SLOWING IN DOING SO AND WOULD IMPLY THAT FLAGS MAY LAST LONGER. WE KEEP OUR NORTHERLY COMPONENT EVEN IF IN A DIMINISHED STATE COME MONDAY AS LOW WANDERS OUT IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...SGL LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...BJR

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