Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
981 FXUS62 KILM 020454 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1254 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
UNSETTLED AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN. A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRYING AND WARMING WILL FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THE EARLY MORNING UPDATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE JUST UPSTREAM OF OUR WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TO THE ENE. THERE WAS ALSO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OUR SW AND S. WILL SHOW POPS INCREASING OVERNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION AND I-95 CORRIDOR AND THEN EASTWARD TO THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT THERE WILL BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. DEEP SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS GEORGIA WILL DAMPEN AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AROUND DAWN. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO SMALL POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ELEVATED DEWPOINTS...CLOUDS...AND 25 TO 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JETTING WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL NIGHT. TEMPS WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM WHERE THEY ARE EARLY THIS EVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT...EVEN WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN CONUS. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF FACTORS COME IN TO PLAY...INCLUDING FAVORABLE UPPER WINDS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED MORE OR LESS ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT THAT BULK OF PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WHILE ALOFT A MID LEVEL BLOCK WILL START SETTING UP. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THU...DRIVEN WELL OFF THE COAST BY LARGE 5H EAST COAST TROUGH/CUTOFF. THIS CUTOFF WILL FORM THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BLOCK AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER LOWER MS VALLEY EXPANDS EAST. MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE LIMITED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH DEEP WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST FLOW PREVENT ANY MOISTURE RETURN. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WED-FRI CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED. IN ADDITION TO DEEP DRY AIR LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST SLOWLY EXPANDS EAST...WILL DROP NEAR CLIMO TEMPS WED BELOW TO WELL BELOW CLIMO THU THROUGH SAT. MID LEVEL RIDGING AND MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH EAST WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RETURNING NEAR CLIMO. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. INITIALLY VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS AND OVC300. POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MARGINAL MVFR/IFR. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN ANY CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18KT IN THE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATES. S TO SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JETTING WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT. MAINLY 3 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE IT OFFSHORE BEFORE DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STAY SW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ALTHOUGH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ON TUESDAY MAY SEE WINDS BUMPED UP TO 15 TO 20 KT FOR A TIME IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 5 FT SHOULD WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. PERIOD BEGINS WITH LOW/FRONT COMBO MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE ON THU WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. PINCHED GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION THU NIGHT AND FRI WILL PUSH WEST WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. GRADIENT AND ADVECTION RELAX ON FRI AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND WINDS DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT THU IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. REDUCTION IN SPEEDS LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO SEAS FALLING TO 2 TO 3 FT FRI.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...COLBY NEAR TERM...RJD/8 SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SGL/MJC

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.