Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 221802 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 202 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Waves of low pressure will develop along stalled cold front producing increased chance of showers and thunderstorms through mid week. A cold front trailing from a deep low pressure system over the Ohio Valley on Thursday will push through bringing the final round of storms to the area. High pressure will build in on Friday maintaining quieter weather for much of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM Monday...Waves of low pressure will move along a stalled frontal boundary which appears to be running from SW to NE just west of local forecast area. This will maintain a deep SW flow of warm and moist air with dewpoint temps near 70 degrees. The moisture profiles show RH greater than 80 percent from near the sfc up through the mid to upper levels. Pcp water values remain above 1.75 inches increasing up near 2 inches for most of tonight. With deep moisture present, any forcing mechanism will help to produce showers and thunderstorms over the area. Shortwave energy rotating around a deepening mid to upper trough digging down from the Upper Great Lakes combined with increased jet dynamics will produce periods of showers and thunderstorms through the period. Overall expect plenty of clouds with some breaks of sun and a generally slower rise to temps but enough instability to initiate showers and storms especially along the sea breeze front or any other localized boundaries. The HRRR actually shows some minor development along the sea breeze closer to the coast earlier this afternoon with more widespread activity developing along waves of low pressure along front just along the west to northwest periphery of our local forecast area closer to the vicinity of I-95 corridor later this aftn into early this evening. SPC shows marginal risk for severe storms in that area with main threat of damaging wind gusts. Daytime highs should be in the middle 80s area wide and overnight lows for tonight should be similar to this mornings values, around 70 in most places. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...A broad upper trough will drive a slow- moving cold front across eastern CONUS during the short term, with the front moving across the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday night. A series of short waves rounding the base of the upper trough will combine with a relatively moist and boundry-rich airmass to make for an extended period of unsettled weather. Temperatures will hover around seasonal levels, with the warm SW flow being balanced somewhat by overcast conditions and period of precipitation. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Relatively narrow warm sector spreads into the area on Wednesday. The warm front early may bring some light rain but the approach of the cold front yield the more significant rise in POPs as well as the chance for higher rainfall amounts. Wind fields not quite as strong as previously forecast and instability should be limited by cloud cover so severe weather threat seems minimal. The main energy associated with the upper trough crosses Thursday but the deepest moisture will be well offshore by then. Even so, the strength of the main vorticity max should be able to wring out a few showers especially if breaks of sunshine provide some instability. Deep layer westerly flow will bring sunshine on Friday with much lower humidity levels that will recover slightly into Saturday. A healthy disturbance may come across in this zonal flow on Sunday bringing some minor rain chances. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 18Z Monday...Included shwrs/vcts for all TAF sites through tonight into Tuesday. Airmass remains very moist and warm ahead of a stalled front running from SW to NE across inland Carolinas. Waves of low pressure riding along the front along with upper level forcing will produce periods of shwrs/tstms across the area through the TAF period. Initially the convection along sea breeze front will push inland giving a break to coastal TAFS through later this afternoon but westerly steering flow will keep it clouded over most of the time. Therefore inland TAFS will have greater chc through early this evening but coastal TAFS will have a greater chc overnight, mainly after midnight or 03z. Southerly flow will be gustier along the coast through early this evening due to sea breeze. Extended Outlook...Reduced flight categories will be possible in periodic showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. The strongest convective activity will occur Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1100 AM Monday...South to southeast flow will increase from 10 to 15 kts up to 15 to 20 kts as gradient tightens between cold front to the west and high pressure to the east. This persistent southerly push will produce an increase in seas into early Tues morning from 2 to 4 ft this afternoon up to 3 to 5 ft. WNA model data shows a fairly sharp rise heading into Tues with the greatest rise occurring after the near term period, through the day on Tues. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Monday...Although there will be some fluctuations, the overall trend during the Short Term will be one of gradually increasing SW winds and building seas in advance of a slowly advancing cold front. The front will be over or near the waters in the early morning hours of Thursday, at which point we will likely see some loosening of the gradient and a bit of a decrease in winds and seas. Until then, though, it is likely that Small Craft Advisory conditions will be breached on Wednesday or more likely Wednesday night. Expect frequent period of shower and thunderstorm activity during this period also. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Broad swath of southwesterly flow in place on Wednesday between large Atlantic high and cold front approaching from the west. Winds may not ramp up to advisory levels but seas likely will. This boundary will turn the flow from SW to W by Thursday as well as a small decrease in overall wind speed allowing seas to abate below advisory thresholds. The circulation and gradient associated with the front will finally move east of the area by Friday as high pressure builds into Florida and the Bahamas. Locally wind will remain westerly and continue to abate. Seas will follow suit. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...REK

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