Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 130511 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 111 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will warm well above normal late this week as high pressure shifts offshore. Showers and thunderstorm chances will return Friday afternoon as a front approaches. The front will linger through Sunday night with more showers possible. Much colder temperatures are possible next week behind a strong front. && .UPDATE...
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Forecast remains on track. 6z aviation discussion below.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... High pressure to our southeast will slowly drift offshore tonight into Wednesday. A weak pressure pattern on Wednesday and weak ridging aloft will bring above normal temperatures away from the coast. Water temperatures in the upper 50s will create a strong afternoon sea breeze and mute afternoon highs significantly. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... An upper level ridge will amplify across the eastern U.S. Wednesday night into Thursday, supporting surface high pressure along the coast. This will keep the weather dry with above normal temperatures. Highs on Thursday should reach 80 degrees for all but coastal locations as 850 mb temperatures approach +12C. Winds will remain light and along the coast will be dominated by daytime seabreeze/nighttime landbreeze effects. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An upper level low will cut off across Arizona this weekend into early next week, however two weak disturbances embedded in the flow aloft plus a stronger shortwave to our north next should still be able to affect the Carolinas. It`s an active weather period coming up! First up will be the approach of a southern stream disturbance Friday. This system will bring a load of Gulf moisture along with it, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday night. Well above normal temperatures, possibly the warmest of the year, will rise into the lower 80s for most locations away from the beaches. Surface low pressure moving off the New England coast will drag a surface cold front southward, likely stalling near Cape Fear Saturday morning. The atmospheric column should be dry and capped enough behind Friday night`s departing disturbance to keep Saturday`s weather generally dry with highs cooling into the 70s. Another weak disturbance aloft will approach Sunday, lifting the stalled front back to the north and bringing another chance of showers and t-storms to the area. A strong shortwave aloft will dig southward across the Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday, pushing a significant cold front through the area. An unseasonably chilly airmass should follow. CPC`s 6 to 10 day outlook has a greater than 50 percent chance of temperatures in the lowest climatological tercile (33 percent) next week. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR with high clouds moving across through this evening. Light southwest winds prevail around offshore high pressure, with southerly sea breeze and gusts to 15 kts at MYR and CRE this afternoon. Extended Outlook...Dry high pressure will bring VFR conditions through Thursday. Next frontal system due by late Friday, which appears to be the next remote threat to the flight categories.
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&& .MARINE... Through Wednesday...Quiet conditions expected through tomorrow as high pressure to our south gradually shift offshore. Winds near the sea breeze on Wednesday afternoon will gust up to 20 knots and 1-2 foot seas may become choppy as a result. Overnight, winds drop to around 10-15 knots, still out of the SW. Wednesday night through Sunday...High pressure will linger near the coast Wednesday night into Thursday with light winds expected. As the high puts a little more distance between itself and the Carolinas Friday winds will turn more southwest and then increase in speed during the afternoon, likely reaching 15-20 knots by Friday evening. This is in advance of a cold front that will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday night. It appears we should remain shy of Small Craft Advisory thresholds and no advisory is planned. The front will stall somewhere near Cape Fear Saturday, then will return north again late Saturday night into Sunday as a new wave of low pressure develops more showers and thunderstorms that may affect the area Sunday into Sunday night. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA UPDATE...VAO NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...TRA AVIATION...VAO MARINE...TRA/21

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