Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 171822 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 222 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure will continue to cover the eastern United States through the week. Hurricane Jose will continue to lift north, passing well offshore tonight through Monday. Swell from Jose will produce an increased rip current risk into early this week. Temperatures will remain above normal through much of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 215 PM Sunday...An isolated shower or two has popped up east of an Elizabethtown to Conway line early this afternoon, as well as and the potential for this type of activity will continue through max heating across the eastern CWA where there is sufficient moisture. Overnight, a northerly breeze will preclude significant fog development, but do anticipate some stratus, which should be most prominent across SE NC, with very little expected across the Pee Dee. On Monday, moisture profiles will be drier as Jose lifts north well off the Outer Banks. Expect mostly sunny skies and no PoPs under the influence of confluent flow aloft and subsidence. Otherwise, the rip current risk will remain elevated through Monday as a result of the incoming swell energy.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 215 PM Sunday...Mid level heights will slowly recover in the wake of the broad circulation of Jose through the period. By Wednesday morning expect a benign westerly flow aloft. A weak pressure pattern will prevail at the surface with if anything an extension of a broad and weak trough east of the Appalachians. Will continue to advertise a dry forecast through the period with highs mainly in the middle 80s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 245 PM Sunday...H5 pattern on Wednesday will be highlighted by Jose`s circulation near New England with a trough axis lagging back across the Mid-Atlantic westward into the MS valley. At the surface, weak high pressure will be the rule, reinforced by high pressure from the north late in the week. Only low-end POPs needed primarily for Thursday with sea breeze becoming active, otherwise building high pressure will preclude convective chances Friday. Depending on the low-level moisture transport, far in advance of the northwest side of Maria, there could be some showers that can move onshore in the northeasterly low-level fetch this weekend. However, weather for the upcoming weekend and early the following week will be highly dependent on Maria`s eventual track. Followed a blend of ECE and MEX numbers through the period. Lastly, the rip current risk will likely increase again by Wednesday as Maria` swells begin to impact the coast.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 18Z...Isolated shower potential will continue this afternoon for the coastal terminals. These will dissipate with loss of heating. Northerly winds will remain up overnight, and prevent fog development, but stratus is expected after 06Z across SE NC and KILM. Some of this may creep into NE SC and impact KCRE and KMYR, but confidence is lower there. Ceilings are not anticipated inland tonight due to limited low level moisture.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 215 PM Sunday...Long period swells (13 sec) emanating from Jose will continue to produce 5-8 ft seas through the night. The Small Craft Advisory will remain in place, which currently is in effect through 8 PM Monday. Latest WNA is suggesting the swells within 20 nm may fall below 6 feet south of Little River Inlet by Monday morning, which would allow the advisory to be lifted. However due to timing uncertainties, will not make adjustments with this forecast package. Northeast winds of 15 to 20 knots will continue into Monday morning, and back towards the north as Jose lifts north well off the Outer Banks. The gradient will weaken Monday afternoon and allow winds to diminish towards 10 knots. SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Sunday...With a weak pressure gradient in place, winds will be somewhat benign. With a remaining fringe affect from the slow moving Jose, winds will be out of the northwest at generally ten knots or less, at least through early Tuesday. By about midday Tuesday, a southwest flow should develop with a slightly stronger range of 10-15 knots possible through Wednesday morning. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 PM Sunday...Weak high pressure will prevail through the long term period but will become better established from the north Thu into Fri. As a result, varying winds Wed into Thu will become east-northeasterly during Fri and increasing to around 15 knots. Seas will be a mix of residual easterly swell then increasing Maria swells by Wednesday. Maria`s swells will continue to build through the end of the week.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. NC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...CRM SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...CRM

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