Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 010711 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...AMORPHOUS...ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE NEAR TERM WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING OFFSHORE WITHIN AN OTHERWISE BROAD AND FLAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A BROAD ARE OF RIDGING PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GUIDANCE SHOW DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR TERM AS THE DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS AND WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING AT RIGHT AROUND 70 WE CAN EXPECT FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE HAS ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S OVER OUR NC COUNTIES AND RIGHT AROUND 90 FOR OUR SC COUNTIES. LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND ANY STRONG TRIGGERS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP DEVELOP A HEALTHY CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON AFTER AN EXTENSIVE EARLY MORNING STRATUS DECK BURNS OFF. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A WEAK WESTERLY FLOW TO A NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AND ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY ACROSS TEH COASTAL CAROLINAS. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION IS VERY LIMITED EVEN AT PEAK HEATING DUE PRIMARILY TO DRY AIR ALOFT. CONTINUES THE MINIMAL POPS THROUGHOUT. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE WITH WIDESPREAD 90S BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWLY EVOLVING MID LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS RIDGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST INITIALLY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE. THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THIS PATTERN ARE MIXED IN STRENGTH AS WELL WITH A STURDY NORTHEAST PUSH OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND WEDGE CONFIGURATION SETTING UP. THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS A WEAK REFLECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST THE OPPOSITE...JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE/CLIMATOLOGY. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR ON TAP OVERNIGHT WELL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW FEW/SCT LOW CIGS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT OVERALL SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND AS A RESULT ANTICIPATE STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TO CREATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING WHICH FEATURE WILL PREVAIL...THUS HAVE KEPT A MIXTURE IN GOING FORECAST ATTM. ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND MANAGEABLE SEAS. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THEY WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL DECAY FROM PRESENT 3 FT RANGE TO RIGHT AROUND 2 FT LATER THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...ELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS UNDER A POORLY DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE MARINE SHORT TERM FORECAST. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND TEN KNOTS WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THURSDAY VIA A PASSING SHORTWAVE. BY THE AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS AROUND ONCE AGAIN TO SOUTHEAST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A LOW 1-3 FT RANGE. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF WEAK WIND FIELDS WITH THE FLOW DICTATED BY THE SEA BREEZE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR SO. BY SATURDAY A NORTHEAST PUSH WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF A LONG STANDING NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL

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