Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 180115 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 815 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT WARMUP BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEK. A MOISTURE STARVED FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM MORE SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 715 PM MONDAY...THIS UPDATE TO CLEAR OUT THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN FROM THE EVENING HRS. 88DS IDENTIFY THE COLD FRONT WITH A VERY THIN LINE OF -SHRA...THAT EXTENDS FROM JEROME ACROSS FAIRMONT AND EVERGREEN TO CADES. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS TO VEER TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND REMAINING ACTIVE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIER GUSTS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST FROM THE ILM CWA BY LATE THIS EVENING. 88DS FAINTLY IDENTIFY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ACTUAL CAA...IE THE COLD SURGE...AND DRIER AIR PUSHING ACROSS THE CAROLINA MIDLANDS. AFTER ITS PASSAGE...WINDS TO FURTHER VEER TO THE NW AS CAA ALONG WITH THE DRY AIRMASS BECOMES THE DOMINATE PLAYERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES EARLY IN THE PRE-DAWN HRS OF TUE...THIS COLD SURGE TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SKIES TO PARTIALLY CLEAR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN CLOUDS BY DAYBREAK TUE. COLD CU/SC TO BE SEEN JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK AS THIS COLD/FRIGID AIR MASS MOVES ACROSS THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. THE CURRENT MIN TEMP FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH ONLY TWEAKING BY 1 OR 2 DEGREES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.......................................... AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO MARCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THE LINE OF CONVECTION ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT CAN BE SEEN ACROSS CENTRAL NC/SC. THIS LINE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AND IS JUST MOVING INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE COMBINATION OF HEATING...WARM ADVECTION...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JETTING HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE UP UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN AREAS WHERE BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP. PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED. FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION NOT FAR BEHIND. ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE. 850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP 10-15C BETWEEN THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW MORNING AND THE VERTICAL PROFILE DATA SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ALONG THE COAST FALLING FROM 25C THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 0C TUE MORNING. TEMPS TUE MORNING WILL BE PURELY DOWN TO THE AIRMASS CHANGE. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS CLOUDS HOLDING ON FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2014-2015 WINTER SEASON WILL BLAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY REACHING A NADIR AROUND -8C AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THAT`S 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE PSU MET SITE. GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL FORTUNATELY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. ADDING TO THE INCREASING CHILL WILL BE A BAND OF CIRROSTRATUS THAT ALMOST ALL THE MODELS SHOW WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD BLOT OUT SOME OF THE SUN`S HEAT FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND PEAK HEATING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THAT`S 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMALS FOR THE DATE. IF IT WEREN`T FOR RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT MIDNIGHT WE`D PROBABLY SET A FEW RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. WINDS DIMINISH INLAND FROM THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE EXCELLENT. WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY THE ONLY FACTOR PREVENTING US FROM SLIPPING INTO THE TEENS. AS IT STANDS NOW WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE BROKEN: WILMINGTON 25 SET IN 1959 CURRENT FORECAST IS 22 FLORENCE 24 SET IN 1951 CURRENT FORECAST IS 21 N MYRTLE BEACH 25 SET IN 1949 CURRENT FORECAST IS 23 THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50. A WEAK AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ALONG THE COAST WILL CERTAINLY NOT HELP THE BEACHES FEEL ANY WARMER. DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY COULD DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS COULD DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE TEENS. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CONTINUING. MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN MINOR. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...A DE-AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL LEAVE THE FLOW ALOFT NEARLY ZONAL/SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT OVER THE CAROLINAS DURING THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE DURING THIS TIME THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK INLAND TROFFING AND A RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH. BY FRIDAY MORNING...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TAKES SHAPE OVER TX. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THIS SHORTWAVE/S ENERGY WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST DURING SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH SUPPORT WILL EXIST ALOFT AND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE AIR-MASS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY BY THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY WITH WARM RETURN FLOW UNDERWAY. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 00Z...EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WEST TO EAST...PERSISTING THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF OUR AREA...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SCT/BKN COVERAGE OF LOW CIGS MOVING ABOUT THE AREA...CREATING MVFR. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...WILL SEE A QUICK IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS TO VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS...BECOMING LIGHT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...SCA TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE OFF THE ILM CWA COAST BY MID TO LATE THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE ACTUAL COLD/FRIGID SURGE DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM SW TO W AFTER FROPA...AND FURTHER VEER TO THE NW ONCE THE CAA AND DRIER INFILTRATE ACROSS THE ILM WATERS. A TIGHTENED SFC PG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE ILM WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUE BEFORE FINALLY LOOSENING UP. COMBINED WITH THE COLD SURGE LATER TONIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL RUN 20 TO 25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS ANY POCKETS OF SSTS IN THE 70S...SUCH AS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR IN THE VICINITY OF FRYING PAN SHOALS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE MORE OR LESS REACHED THEIR PEAK THIS EVENING. WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE OF AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY OVERNIGHT INTO DAYTIME TUE...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL OBSERVE A SUBSIDING TREND TO THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH DOMINANT PERIODS IN THE 5 TO 7 SECOND RANGE. THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN HAS MOVED EAST OF THE ILM WATERS. COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...AND AGAIN WHEN THE COLD SURGE COMMENCES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................................. AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SEAS CONTINUE CLIMBING. LATEST FROM 41013 IS 7 FT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 10 FT BEFORE THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME BEHIND THE FRONT THE COMBINATION OF PINCHED GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS 20 TO 25 KT FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL HELP KNOCK SEAS WITHIN 20 NM BELOW 6 FT BUT THIS WILL TAKE SOME TIME. THINK SC WATERS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT 6 AM END TIME. WILL PROBABLY GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE SCA FOR THE NC WATERS BEYOND THE END OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. WILL MAKE ULTIMATE DECISION WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE AROUND 3 PM. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR OUT ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO MAKING A TON OF CHOPPY SHORT-PERIOD WAVES TO DEAL WITH...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S MUCH OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY...SINKING SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE NC WATERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE A LITTLE FASTER ACROSS THE SC WATERS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW THURSDAY WILL VEER TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING SATURDAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL VEER TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. A RANGE OF SEAS WILL EXIST THURSDAY WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW...THEN SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST FETCH SETUP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...DCH/III SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...SGL

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