Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 260807 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 407 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP MID AND LATE WEEK...WITH MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY COOL AND INCREASINGLY DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE SW WELL OFFSHORE...BUT UNLIKE YESTERDAY GUIDANCE SHOWS NO SIGN THAT WE WILL SEE THAT ACTIVITY MOVE ASHORE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING DRYING AT ALL LEVELS WITH P/W VALUES FALLING BELOW AN INCH BY AROUND NOON AND DOWN TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CU FIELD WITH BASES AT AROUND 3 KFT TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOWERS ARE NOT CALLED FOR. ONGOING COOL ADVECTION MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S MOST PLACES AND LOWS FROM AROUND 60 INLAND TO THE MID 60S CLOSE TO THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...ONLY IMPACTS FROM CRISTOBAL FOR THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE INCREASED LONGER PERIOD SWELLS AFFECTING THE WATERS. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP ON WED AS GRADIENT RELAXES AS CRISTOBAL LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THURS AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY AROUND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH MID WEEK MAINTAINING PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. OVERALL SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURS AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE AND WINDS HAVE MORE OF A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. HIGHS UP BETWEEN 85 AND 90 MOST PLACES ON WED WILL REACH INTO THE 90S MOST AREAS ON THURS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S WED NIGHT WILL BE CLOSER TO 70 THURS NIGHT AS DEWPOINT TEMPS BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP IN A MOISTER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH LATE THURS. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA THURS BUT EXPECT IT TO BE HELD TO THE NORTH AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH. MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ANY PCP OUT OF THE FORECAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BROAD MID TO UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME MORE ELONGATED AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE COLUMN HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK UP CLOSER TO 2 INCHES SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHC OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MONDAY. OVERALL...THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE LOSES ITS GRIPS ON THE SOUTHEAST AND MID TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES A COLD FRONT EASTWARD BY TUES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. VFR WILL PREVAIL AS FEW/SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. GIVEN INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...CONTINUE TO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT..ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT LIGHT...BRIEF-LIVED...PATCHY FOG INLAND. ON TUESDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 12 KTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD EXPECT VFR WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS FRI. INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SATURDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FOR MOST MARINE ZONES. AMZ254 WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES DUE TO ITS MORE SHELTERED LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OUR NC MARINE ZONES AS A RELAXING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTH. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SW ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CRISTOBAL WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AND WILL REMAIN A NON-PLAYER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST SEAS TO THE NORTH AND EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TO 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CRISTOBAL PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS ALLOWING GRADIENT TO RELAX. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND THROUGH MID WEEK FROM NORTH ON WED TO WESTERLY BY THURS THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF SHORE BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. SEAS WILL DROP OFF FROM CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS EARLY WED MORNING DOWN TO 4 TO 5 FT WED NIGHT AND DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS BY THURS NIGHT. A LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONTRIBUTION TO SEA HEIGHTS. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A RETURN FLOW AROUND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ON SHORE AND SPIKE UP A BIT EACH AFTN IN SEA BREEZE. OTHERWISE EXPECT SEAS 1 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE COAST...WITH THE AXIS JUST INLAND FROM THE SHORE. THIS LEAVES THE WATERS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE HIGH...AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL NEAR THE BAHAMAS...PRODUCING PERSISTENT AND STRONG NE WINDS LOCALLY. THESE NE WINDS ARE PUSHING WATER TOWARDS SHORE...AND LOCAL TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING +1 TO +2 FT TODAY. THESE ANOMALIES WILL RISE ON TOP OF A NEW-MOON ENHANCED ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING...TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG ALL EAST FACING BEACHES. HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 8PM THIS EVENING...AND MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS MAY BE EXCEEDED FOR ABOUT A 1 HR WINDOW BOTH SIDES OF HIGH TIDE.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056. NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...REK/SGL

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