Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 182314 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 714 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING AN AUTUMN CHILL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DRY FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR...MAINTAINING FALL WEATHER MIDDLE THROUGH LATE WEEK. LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER TROF TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE U.S. THIS AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. MODELS TAKE A MID- LEVEL S/W TROF IE. 5H VORT...WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROF...AND ROTATE IT ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...MODELS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE 5H S/W TROF...WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING AND WELL OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR THIS AFTN THRU SUNDAY FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA...INDICATE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THUS WILL KEEP A MOSTLY CLEAR FCST LEADING UP TO ITS PASSAGE. MODELS DO INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY BELOW 800MB ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER S/W TROF. THE UVVS AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT AND POST COLD FRONTAL CAA SURGE...WILL AID IN SCT POSSIBLY BKN CU/SC CLOUDS OR LOW AC CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. NVA TO OCCUR BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AND WILL COMBINE WITH A DOWNSLOPE WIND TRAJECTORY NEARLY THRU THE ENTIRE ATM COLUMN...AND SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING MOISTURE IN THE ATM. LOOK FOR MUCH IMPROVED SKY CONDITIONS AROUND AND AFTER DAYBREAK SUN. CONSENSUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50-55 RANGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL AREA WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS ABOUT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES SUNDAY WITH CAA ON NW FLOW. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT SO LOWS WILL FALL TO THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM TO THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE WITH ABUNDANT SUN AND LIGHT S TO SE WINDS. UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE ON TAP. NO RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A STRAY SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...DIGGING 5H TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES CUTOFF OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC STATES MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSING LATER TUE WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO WED AND THU. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS TUE ABOVE CLIMO. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MID LEVELS DRY BUT THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP AROUND FROPA...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEMS UNLIKELY. DO ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH FROPA. CLOSED 5H LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF THE NJ COAST THU AND HEADS NORTHEAST FRI. THIS WILL COMMENCE A PERIOD OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION FRI AND SAT WITH TEMPS CREEPING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO. CONTINUED DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. BROKEN CLOUDS 6-10K POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AT KFLO/KLBT AND AFTER MIDNIGHT Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS A MID- LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME NW-N AFTER FROPA. WIND BECOME PREDOMINATELY N AND SPEEDS INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTINESS BY 13Z...BUT GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SCEC REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JUST THE ILM NC WATERS ONLY...LEADING UP TO THE SCA THAT STARTS AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS. ALL WATERS WILL OBSERVE WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER ILM NC WATERS. THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO THE SE IS SLATED TO PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS AT...OR UP TO AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER SUNSET. THE COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE WELL OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. POST COLD FRONTAL WINDS WILL INITIALLY VEER TO THE NW-N INITIALLY AT 15 KT...THEN QUICKLY PICK UP TO NNW-NNE AT 15-25 KT BY AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS FROM A TIGHTENED SFC PG AND THE DELAY OF THE CAA SURGE. EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE LOW TO MID 70S SSTS COULD AID IN PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FOR A PERIOD. A DECAYING GONZALO SWELL AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE 2 TO 4 FOOT SIGNIFICANT SEAS REMAINDER OF THIS AFTN AND EVENING...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS PARTICULARLY OFF CAPE FEAR. FOR TONIGHT...WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT AS GONZALO SWELL CONTINUES ITS DECAYING TREND ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. LOOK FOR SIG. SEAS TO REACH 3 TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE TO OCCUR OFF CAPE FEAR...AND THE OUTER WATERS OFF FROM WINYAH BAY. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...OUTSIDE A FEW HOURS SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT EARLY SUNDAY WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KT BY SUNSET AND TURN NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE SE MONDAY AND S TO SE MONDAY NIGHT AT SPEEDS INVOF 10 KT. SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT EARLY SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUNSET. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FT EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUE WILL BACK TO NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. INCREASED GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION WILL BUMP WIND SPEEDS TO A SOLID 15 KT WED AND WED NIGHT. GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED THU AND THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR WED AND THU WITH INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW. NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS WITH ONLY POTENTIAL FOR 4 FT BEING IN THE VICINITY OF 20 NM. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...XXXI NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...XXXI LONG TERM...III AVIATION...MRR

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