Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 011832 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 232 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND CLUSTER MAINLY ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FROM SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE..AND TEMPS BACK UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 80S. LACK OF MOISTURE AND DEEP DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHWR IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. A RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WITH DEEPER W-NW FLOW OF DRIER AIR AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN GA NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE REMAINING SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS UP FROM GA NORTHEAST TO AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. THIS REMAINED THE FOCAL POINT FOR DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL STREAM MAINLY EAST TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST REACHING INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY FORECAST. DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A WEAK WESTERLY FLOW TO A NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AND ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION IS VERY LIMITED EVEN AT PEAK HEATING DUE PRIMARILY TO DRY AIR ALOFT. CONTINUES THE MINIMAL POPS THROUGHOUT. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE WITH WIDESPREAD 90S BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWLY EVOLVING MID LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS RIDGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST INITIALLY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE. THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THIS PATTERN ARE MIXED IN STRENGTH AS WELL WITH A STURDY NORTHEAST PUSH OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND WEDGE CONFIGURATION SETTING UP. THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS A WEAK REFLECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST THE OPPOSITE...JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE/CLIMATOLOGY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH SCATTERED CU MAINLY OVER PENDER COUNTY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE ABOUT 15 KTS...PROBABLY TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT DENSE FOG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME MVFR FOG AROUND. WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW. HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH TROUGH LINGERING IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST. OVERALL EXPECT A WEAK MAINLY OFF SHORE FLOW WITH ON SHORE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON FADING OUT BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 FT. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS UNDER A POORLY DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE MARINE SHORT TERM FORECAST. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND TEN KNOTS WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THURSDAY VIA A PASSING SHORTWAVE. BY THE AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS AROUND ONCE AGAIN TO SOUTHEAST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A LOW 1-3 FT RANGE. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF WEAK WIND FIELDS WITH THE FLOW DICTATED BY THE SEA BREEZE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR SO. BY SATURDAY A NORTHEAST PUSH WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF A LONG STANDING NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...RGZ/DL

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