Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 180528 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 135 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered thunderstorms are expected Sunday with coastal areas favored in the morning through early afternoon and inland areas favored in the afternoon. The coverage of thunderstorms is expected to increase early next week as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The cold front is expected to stall and slowly dissipate in close proximity during the middle of next week as Bermuda High pressure reestablishes itself. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 900 PM Saturday...Convection over land has faded this evening with stabilization, but showers continue to bubble up just off Cape Fear. These will skirt the coast from Ft. Fisher north, and small potential for some shower or thunderstorm development will continue through the night across the coastal counties of southeast NC. Have removed PoPs further inland and across our SC counties. Water vapor imagery continues to show drier air inching closer to the Forecast Area from the south and should be arriving Sunday with the deeper moisture tending to pivot slowly to our north coincident with the northward advance of a mid-level trough. It is the arrival of this drier air and loss of heating that should help to cut off convection late day and early evening. Since the flow tonight will be SW and deep, we expect Atlantic streamer of showers and thunderstorms to remain offshore, making its closest approach and perhaps skirting the Cape Fear coast. On Sunday, strengthening Bermuda High tries to expand westward. Again, column will be drier, but what moisture there is will likely converge between seabreeze boundary pushing inland and residual Piedmont troughiness. Any isolated activity along the coast will occur through the first portion of the day. Mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms will build as heating gets underway Sunday with the corridor of best lift likely setting up similar to today, from LBT and EYF through MAO. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Area will remain in deep moist SW flow on the western periphery of the Atlantic Ridge through the period. Sun evening will start out fairly dry with subsidence and drier mid level air keeping convection at ease. Will see some low level moisture move in overnight with some clouds and spotty showers mainly along coastal locations. Gradient will begin to tighten heading into Monday as a cold front approaches the Carolinas from the W-NW and mid to upper trough digs down. This will increase moisture transport out of the south with pcp water values increasing from around 1.5 inches Sun eve up to 2 inches by Mon aftn. A tropical low possibly developing in the Gulf may aid in this moisture transport through Monday. Overall expect an increase of clouds and more widespread shower activity into Monday, especially late day Mon into Monday night. Looks like initially showers will be more scattered along sea breeze front and piedmont trough during Mon with best upper level support well west still. Temps will run above normal through the period with overnight lows in the 70s and highs close to 90. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Mid to upper trough pushing a cold front into the Carolinas on Tues will lift northeast by Wed leaving this weakening boundary over the southeast with the Atlantic ridge gaining control of the area. Unfortunately this may not make for drier weather during the mid week period. Overall, the long term will be highly dependent on the evolution of a developing tropical low in the Gulf. There is a fairly wide spread in terms of model solutions, but it does appear there is a more northward and eastward trend, meaning the center of the low may track up toward LA/AL coast by mid week, but other models still push the center westward toward Mexico and allow for drying. For now, will leave the forecast with best chc of shwrs/tstms on Tues and more of diurnally induced convection thereafter with shwrs/tstms focused along sea breeze boundary and inland along piedmont trough during the aftn and along coast overnight. But, keep in mind it could turn out to be a lot more cloudy and showery through mid to late week. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 06Z...Generally a VFR forecast. The possible exceptions are as follows. Coastal terminals may see a 1500ft deck as tropical moisture streams ashore between now and daybreak. Inland terminals may see very brief pre-dawn MVFR or IFR. Thunderstorm coverage this afternoon will be too short-lived and difficult to time to warrant anything more than PROB30s and generally only away from the coastal airports. Extended Outlook...The risk for flight restrictions due to thunderstorms will continue through the period. The probability for reduced ceilings and visibility in thunderstorms with heavy rain should be highest Mon through Tue and rather low on Sun.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 900 PM Saturday...Bermuda High pressure off the coast will result in south-southwest winds overnight. Showers off the Cape Fear coast this evening will skirt the coast as they approach Surf City, and similar redevelopment is possible after midnight. Nocturnal jetting should keep winds from diminishing below 10 to 15 kt overnight. The direction will be S, veering to SSW overnight and back to S on Sun. Seas will be 3 to 4 ft. Similar conditions are expected on Sun. A weak 16 to 18 second SE swell will persist. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Local waters will remain on western periphery of Bermuda high through the period. Gradient will tighten Sun night into Mon as cold front slowly approaches the region from the northwest. Southerly flow on the high end of the 10 to 15 kt range Sun afternoon will increase to 15 to 20 kt Mon with a solid 20 kt likely in the late afternoon through early evening time period. Seas 3 to 4 ft Sun build to 3 to 5 ft into Mon night. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...A cold front will reach into the Carolinas Tues into Wed before dissipating. Local waters will remain in S to SW winds through out the period mainly around 10 to 15 kts through Tues but diminishing as cold front dissipates and Bermuda High gains control. The stronger winds early Tues will produce seas up near 3 to 5 ft but winds will diminish through Tues into Wed leading to seas between 2 and 4 ft for the remainder of the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJD/CRM NEAR TERM...RJD/CRM SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MBB

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