Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 282344 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 744 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD AIR-MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT TO WESTERN PART OF NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AREA TO SEE A LIGHT NORTH WIND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ALOFT THE HRRR SHOWS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE COOLING OVERNIGHT FROM -4.5 TO -7 DEGREES CELSIUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLING OF THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...REGION WILL BE RECOVERING FROM RECORD COLD SUNDAY MORNING AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COLD...WITH HIGHS TEMPS RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH...BUT AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE THE LOW-TO-MID 50S AT LEAST BEARABLE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY...AND WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS MUCH WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUMS BY SUNRISE MONDAY WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT SW WINDS KEEPING LOWS FROM TRULY BOTTOMING OUT ONCE AGAIN. MONDAY WILL START WITH A QUICK WARM-UP AS RETURN FLOW PERSIST AROUND AN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS DRIVEN BY VORT ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW...AND A RAPID FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED. SPC HAS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN THE GENERAL RISK FOR THE SWODY3...BUT PLAN TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK, AND THE BEST JET ENERGY STAYS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL CWA. A PERIOD OF HIGH POP IS WARRANTED AND WILL BUMP POP TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY FOR MONDAY AFTN. MOST OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE PRE- FRONTAL...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLATED TO DROP ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY EVE. TEMPS MONDAY WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT MORE MORE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S BEFORE THE SHOWERS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 40S BENEATH CLEARING SKY CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DURING TUE DRY W-NW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN. FOR WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH H5 RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL CANADA WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MID-WEEK. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE BELOW CLIMO AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BY MID- WEEK. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE IN THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. AFTER A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 7K DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...GOOD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 15K FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO FOG EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS WILL BE GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES. NW WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AOB 7 KT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NW-N WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT SW-W DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY SCT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR MONDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...CURRENTLY WINDS ARE FROM THE WEST AT 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING THE WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND SLIGHTLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THE WATERS DURING SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY MORNING SLOWLY RELAXING AND THEN BACKING TO THE SW LATE AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KT BOTH SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT FROM VASTLY DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. THESE SW WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...REACHING 20-25 KT BEFORE VEERING QUICKLY TO THE NW MONDAY NIGHT AT 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS BEGIN SUNDAY 2-3 FT BUT WILL FALL QUICKLY ON THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...BECOMING JUST 1-2 FT MOST OF THE DAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD BACK TO 3-5 FT MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW 6 FOOTERS IF THE SW FETCH PERSISTS LONG ENOUGH...BEFORE FALLING BACK BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ATTM NO SCA IS EXPECTED...BUT CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH THRESHOLDS. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN DURING TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY THEN NORTHEAST-EAST FLOW PREVAILS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE INTO THURSDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN BUILD TO 3-5 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS UP ON THURSDAY...AND WAVEWATCH APPEARS TO BE A FOOT ON THE LOW SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THU TIME FRAME. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096- 099-105>110. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...MRR

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