Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 191901 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 301 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WET WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM WILL LAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...BEAUTIFUL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS SLOWLY OFF THE NORTH-FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST. A TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING NE FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE TO UP ALONG THE NC COAST...IS STRENGTHENING THIS AFTN...WHICH WILL HELP ONCE AGAIN INCREASE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ITS TRYING TO PUSH DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST...DRIVING A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL SUPPORT STRONG NE WINDS TONIGHT. WELL RAINFALL THIS AFTN HAS NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS ANY OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO TRUST ANY OF IT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM. BELIEVE THE RAIN HAS NOT BEEN AS SIGNIFICANT DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT SW OF THE LOCAL AREA...FROM WHICH THE BEST "MOIST" LIFT IS ORIGINATING. DRY ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL NEVER CREATE SHOWERS...AND THUS ONLY CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PERSIST TODAY...DEVELOPING FROM THE SATURATED NEAR-SURFACE LAYERS. THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEST MATCH THE OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM KCHS AND KFFC THIS MORNING...AND THUS IS USED PREFERENTIALLY. LATEST KLTX RADAR DOES SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY REDEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE...AND EXPECT THIS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND ADVECT BACK TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR REGION. HAVE DECREASED POP FROM EARLIER...BUT STILL SHOW LIKELY POP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT...WITH LOW-CHC INLAND. AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPS AND MOISTURE DOES WRAP BACK INTO THE AREA AROUND THE LOW MOVING UP THE COAST...DRIZZLE/MIST MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN...AND COULD BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP MODE INLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INTERACTION OF THE LOW MOVING UP THE COAST AND THE HIGH RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL DRIVE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT. LLJ IS PROGGED TO RISE TO 40 KTS TONIGHT AT ONLY 1500 FT AGL...THUS WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE AREA...HIGHEST AT THE COAST. TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL EVEN ON THE COOL NE FLOW. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP DIURNAL RANGES LIMITED TO ONLY AROUND 10 DEGREES. THUS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT JUST ABOVE 50 AT THE COAST...AND JUST BELOW 50 TOWARDS I-95.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...GUIDANCE CONSISTENT IN DRIFTING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING OFFSHORE NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY AWAY FROM THE EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE PULLS AWAY WITH THE SYSTEM...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO GRADUALLY FADE FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY MORNING AND ALONG THE COAST WHEN AND WHERE WE CAN EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO HANG ON BEFORE FADING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. GRADIENT ALONG BACKSIDE OF OFFSHORE SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...WHEN WE WILL SEE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHER GUSTS. COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP SUNDAY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 60S. MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AS MORE SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS OF RIGHT AROUND 70.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY WILL FADE AND SHIFT OFF THE COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN TIMING FROPA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT MOISTURE AND THE COVERAGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND A 500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WON`T COOL DOWN MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A MODEST UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS THU-SAT. WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL POP FRI-SAT DUE TO MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...IFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS AT KFLO/KLBT HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH MVFR AT TIMES. VSBYS ARE VFR...BUT VSBYS AT KILM/KLBT HAVE BEEN MVFR/IFR IN -DZ -RA AND BR. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY DECREASING FROM S-N...SHOWERS ARE REDEVELOPING TO THE SE OF KILM. THE LATEST HRRR SLINGS THIS NW INTO KILM THEN KLBT THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KILM/KLBT WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH MVFR VSBYS AT KILM DUE TO SHOWERS. EXPECT IFR CIGS INLAND AS WELL...WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT KLBT DUE TO SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT JUST OFFSHORE AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ENE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS. KLBT/KFLO SHOULD HAVE THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. AS THE ATTENDANT UPPER LOW PASSES EAST THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD END AND CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR 08-10Z. PERIODS OF VFR COULD OCCUR BY 12Z BUT KEPT CIGS MVFR ATTM. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO MVFR CIGS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. VFR ON MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE N-FL ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NE TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE PARENT LOW IS STRENGTHENING OFF THE NC COAST...AND HAS DRIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST SUCH THAT ALL COASTAL WATERS ARE NOW EXPERIENCING STRONG NE WINDS...EVEN OUT TO FRYING PAN SHOALS. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE VICINITY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN. THEREFORE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT...BECOMING NE AT 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KTS TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL RISE QUICKLY AS WELL...BECOMING 7-11 FT WITH A SHORT PERIOD NE WIND WAVE PREDOMINANT...FORCING STEEP WAVE FACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WITHIN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FT. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH GALE WARNING FLAGS FLYING AS THE TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF AN OFFSHORE SYSTEM WILL CRATE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SEAS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 9 FT OVER THE OUTER FRINGES OF OUR WATERS ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME SW ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SURGE TO PERHAPS LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY MIDDAY. DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...REK NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...CRM AVIATION...MRR MARINE...REK/JDW/CRM

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