Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 280751 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 350 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND INTO MONDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP MID WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BRINGING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FA FOR THE TIME BEING. ANOTHER SLUG OF ENERGY ALOFT IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA AND COULD AFFECT THE AREA BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS FEATURE AND THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NEARER THE COAST. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO LOWER 70S COAST. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WHICH THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK IS NOW LOOKING LIKE IT WILL STALL JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. THIS IS UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE THE SPRING-LIKE DRYING THAT WAS FORECAST IS NOW LOOKING MUCH LESS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. THE REASON FOR THIS IS BOTH DUE TO THE VERY WARM WATER TEMPS IN PLACE OVER THE WATER...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOW PROGGED TO REMAIN WEST OF THIS AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY AND WOBBLE IN THE VICINITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD. WHILE THIS FRONT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN...THE MID LEVELS DO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY...SO CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY OR TUESDAY. EVEN SO...THERE COULD BE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT GRADIENT MONDAY...AND IT WILL LIKELY FEEL REFRESHING INLAND...BUT STILL PRETTY HUMID ALONG THE COAST. MOISTURE RETURN WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY SO DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ONCE AGAIN. WITH CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE THERMAL RIDGE REMAINING IN THE VICINITY...TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 90S...WITH TUESDAY THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES...1-2 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70 MONDAY NIGHT...AND A BIT WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SUMMER LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SEASONABLE-TO-SLIGHTLY-ABOVE TEMPERATURES BUT HIGHER THAN CLIMO PRECIP CHANGES. BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BE THE DOMINANT SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURE...WHILE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE THE RULE ALOFT. THIS TROUGH WILL BE RATHER FLAT...BUT WILL KEEP HEIGHTS ALOFT JUST LOW ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTN/EVE IN A TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION. WITH THE SLIGHTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS...THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS THE WARM TEMPS AND HIGH HUMIDITY CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY...AND WILL CARRY CHC TO HIGH CHC POP EACH AFTN. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LIFT AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TRENDS TOWARDS ZONAL...AND FIRST GLIMPSE AT THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY LOOKS HOT WITH ISOLATED TSTMS. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 06Z...LINGERING MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AS LINGERING LOW CLOUDS MOVE ABOUT THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL WITH FEW TO SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT VFR AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AOB 12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT THIS AM WILL DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT BY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT BY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SCA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NOON TODAY. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS MONDAY AND THEN WASH OUT/LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY. BY LATE MONDAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REASSERT ITSELF AND BE THE CONTROLLING FEATURE ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS LEAVES SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AT 10-15 KTS MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY...RISING TO 15-20 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A LOW- AMPLITUDE SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST WITHIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY BY A SW WIND CHOP...WITH SEAS OF 2- 4 FT EXPECTED MONDAY...RISING TO 3-5 FT TUESDAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WHILE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS EACH AFTN INLAND FROM THE WATERS. THIS WILL LEAVE SW WINDS EACH DAY...WITH A PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT OCCURRING TO DRIVE WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15-20 KTS EACH EVENING...WHILE OTHERWISE MAINTAINING A 10-15 KT SPEED. SEAS WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL BE 3-4 FT MOST OF THE TIME...BUT A FEW 5 FTERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE 20 NM BOUNDARY EACH DAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...RAN SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...SGL/RAN

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