Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 192351 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 751 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF FLORIDA AND MOVE NORTH...PASSING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE SUCH THAT IMPACTS WILL REMAIN LIMITED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST ON TUESDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION ON NORTHEAST WINDS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 620 PM FRIDAY...EARLY EVENING UPDATE REQUIRED FOR ISOLATED SHOWER INTRODUCTION OVER OUR FAR INTERIOR ZONES...OTHERWISE LITTLE TUNING NEEDED AT THIS TIME. THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SAT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN THROUGH 25 KFT DUE TO THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. THIS MOISTURE SUPPLY IS DEEPEST ALONG THE COAST. THIS SCENARIO LENDS ITSELF WELL TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MORE OFFSHORE CONVECTION MOVING ONSHORE GIVEN THE PREVAILING FLOW. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE GRAND STAND AND WINYAH BAY AREA AND PERHAPS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL CAP POPS AT GOOD CHANCE IN AND AROUND GEORGETOWN WITH CHANCE POPS ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST. IT WILL BE A BREEZY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NEAR THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE BEACHES NEAR 70 DEG. ELSEWHERE...LOWS SHOULD DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THINNEST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POISED TO DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH FOR LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. I HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE COASTAL ZONES AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE BEST LIFT AND MORE IMPORTANTLY MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS BETWEEN 1800 UTC SATURDAY AND 0000 UTC SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH MAYBE BALD HEAD ISLAND AND EXTREME EASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY SEEING A BIT MORE. SYSTEM PULLS OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY LEAVING IN ITS WAKE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS REQUIRED LITTLE CHANGE. A COOL DAY SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 80. INSOLATION BUMPS MAX TEMPERATURES UP ABOUT A CATEGORY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IS SHOWING DUE TO OVERCAST SKIES AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MONDAY COLD FRONT LOOKING FASTER AND LIKELY THROUGH BY MORNING. THE AFTERNOON LINGERING PRECIP ALONG THE COAST DEPICTED BY THE GFS IS ASSOC WITH A HEALTHY VORT MAX COMING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND IS THUS HARD TO ARGUE WITH. BY TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF NY WILL SPRAWL ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S. INCLUDING A RIDGE AXIS DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. SOME ONSHORE FLOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES MAY SPONSOR SOME CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS A STRAY SPRINKLE. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS HOLDS TOUGH. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD CREEP OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A JUST A FEW DEGREES SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...NE-ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE S AND PASSES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CIGS. A BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON RADAR SHOULD REMAIN E-SE OF KILM...BUT COULD AFFECT KCRE/KMYR THIS EVENING. TEMPO 2-5K CIGS WILL POTENTIALLY OCCUR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT BEST CONFIDENCE WILL BE AT CRE/KMYR THIS EVENING...AS OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINATELY OFFSHORE. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OFFSHORE KCRE/KMYR. AFTER SUNRISE SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. KFLO/KMYR WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR VFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO THE TIMING OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS SAT EVENING. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SAT EVNG WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND DECREASE SUN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR SUN THROUGH WED WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER WITH A COLD FRONT MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 620 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE STRONGLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SATURDAY. MEANTIME...A PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH POKING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA WILL SHARPEN AS IT EXPANDS NORTH. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA TOWARD SAT MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. SUSTAINED EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND GUSTY. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 6 TO 7 FT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HEALTHY NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVES WELL OFFSHORE. I HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS SATURDAY AND THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL ECLIPSE THE SIX FOOT CRITERIA MAINLY ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE ZONES. A MORE MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW...10-15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY AND PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AS WELL INTO A RANGE OF 2-3 FEET. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...EARLY MONDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE VEERS WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THE GRADIENT WILL INITIALLY BE RATHER WEAK AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT. AS THE GRADIENT PINCHES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL RAMP UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT REALM. A FEW ADVISORY-WORTHY SEAS APPEAR POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL BUT HORRY CNTY WHERE WAVE SHADOWING WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ADVISORY. SCEC MAY BE NEEDED HOWEVER. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ254-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR MARINE...RJD/SHK/MBB

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