Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 261349 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 949 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOLDOWN. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP ON SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE FEW DAYS THAT FOLLOW. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL BE THE CONTROLLING INFLUENCE INTO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...KEEPING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE OH VLY AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH COMBINED WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE CLIMO VALUES TODAY...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE COAST WILL BE MUCH COOLER THANKS TO A STRONG SEA BREEZE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE COLUMN TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BUT MOSTLY SHALLOW CUMULUS INLAND FROM THE SEA BREEZE TODAY. LATEST HRRR AND ARW SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...AND HAVE INCREASED POP FROM INHERITED...BUT MAINTAINED VALUES BELOW MENTIONABLE DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800MB. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TODAY BUT FELT IT MORE ACCURATE TO KEEP POP SILENT ATTM. A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT FORECAST AS WARM SW FLOW PERSISTS. MINS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S...WARMEST NEAR THE COAST...AND A STRONG LLJ PREVENTS STEEPENING OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES WILL TECHNICALLY REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IT WILL GET BEATEN DOWN BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST COAST...FEEDING HEAT AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM FLORIDA. WITH INLAND HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS...SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD REACH 1000 J/KG WEDNESDAY AND MAY APPROACH 1500 J/KG ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO IMPRESSIVE CUMULUS GROWTH AND SOME OF THE FIRST AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OF THE YEAR. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONCENTRATE ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY BOTH DAYS AND ALSO AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD THURSDAY. FORECAST POPS ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND 40 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT RECENT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING IT MAY SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT COULD LEAD AN ENHANCEMENT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS LOWER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THAT ITS POSITION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...NONE OF WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED YET. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COOL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND TAKES ANY MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THOUGH AS THE MAIN COOL PUSH IS DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SECONDARY PUSH WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BACK BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK THROUGH TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW ITS PASSAGE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A VERY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH HANGS UP TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A VORT- LADEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FOR SOME RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE. POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THUS HAVE NOT INTRODUCED INTO GOING FORECAST. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS LATER THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS. ANY MID TO HIGH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL REMAIN FEW/SCT IN NATURE. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY MORE TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE S/SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS. A STRONG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING...SO WINDS WITHIN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY BACK A BIT TO THE SOUTH AND GUST TO 20 KTS AT TIMES...BEFORE THE SYNOPTIC FLOW AGAIN BECOMES PREDOMINANT TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 2-3 FEET MAY LOCALLY BUILD TO 3-4 FEET IN SPOTS TONIGHT IN A COMBINATION OF ENE SWELL AND LOCAL SHORT PERIOD WIND CHOP. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG IT. MODELS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE EMPHATIC THAT THE FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTH INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS VERY UNCERTAIN...PARTICULARLY SINCE MOST MODELS PAINT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DAILY SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY LEAVING MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. A SECONDARY PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE COMES IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TURNING THE WINDS TO NORTHEAST. THE HIGH REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. LOCALLY THIS TURNS THE FLOW TO SOUTHEASTERLY OR EVEN SOUTHERLY. DURING ALL OF THESE DIRECTIONAL CHANGES WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SO WHILE WAVE PERIODS MAY BE UNPLEASANTLY SHORT AND CHOPPY THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OVERALL BUILDING OF DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHTS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL MARINE...

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