Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 262217 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 617 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA...MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE WITH SUCH DRY AIR ALOFT EVIDENT IN AREA SOUNDINGS. THE COAST HAS DEVELOPED CUMULUS CLOUDS HOWEVER AS THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS MOISTENED THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN FACT SAID MOISTENING BOLSTERED BY THE WARM, MOIST GULF STREAM FOR SOME SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN LURKING JUST OFF OUR NORTHERNMOST MARINE ZONE FOR A FEW HOURS NOW. THEY HAVE ALSO CONSISTENTLY EVAPORATED ON THEIR WESTWARD TREK TOWARDS LAND AND NEVER REALLY HAD ANY PRESENCE WITHIN ABOUT 15 MILES OF THE COASTLINE. THEIR PERSISTENCE COULD MOISTEN THE BL SUFFICIENTLY FOR A SPRINKLE ALONG THE PENDER OR NEW HANOVER CTY COASTS BUT WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL REMAINING EXCEEDINGLY UNLIKELY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ALOFT. AS ANTICIPATED THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS RAISED SURFACE DEWPOINTS AREA- WIDE AND SO TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE PAST TWO. MOST PLACES WILL COOL DOWN TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 SAVE FOR MAYBE SOME 74S ALONG THE GRAND STRAND. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAK AMORPHOUS PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A STALLED FRONT POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. A LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON MONDAY...BUT EXPECT IT WILL HAVE NO REAL IMPACT ON LOCAL CONDITIONS. DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SWINGS OFF EASTERN CONUS WHILE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE STAYS GENERALLY EASTERLY. THIS SETUP WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE READINGS BETWEEN BOTH DAYS. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND MODEST INSTABILITY IS INTRODUCED...WITH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE. THE AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE FRONT MAY ACT AS A TRIGGER TO TUESDAYS CONVECTION...ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING PIEDMONT TROUGH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WED AND THU WILL KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY FREE OF PRECIP. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED EACH AFTERNOON BUT DO EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL THEN PUSH INLAND. LIMITED SUPPORT ALOFT AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP COVERAGE IN THE SLIGHT CHANGE RANGE. UNCERTAINTY LINGERS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. PREVIOUSLY THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAD BEEN CONSISTENT WITH STALLING THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT STALLING CLOSE TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION AREA WIDE EACH AFTERNOON. COVERAGE INCREASES FOR THE WEEKEND AS 5H RIDGE RETREATS WEST AND DEVELOPING 5H TROUGH CAUSES SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AT TIMES. INCREASED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MORE FAVORABLE MID LEVEL PATTERN PUSHES PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE HIGH CHC RANGE LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMO THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 00Z...MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOG. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE PARTICULARLY INLAND EVEN THOUGH RH`S ARE IN THE 30S RIGHT NOW. BUFKIT SHOWS FAVORABLE VIRTICAL CHANGE IN HUMIDITIES...AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOK FOR FOG TO START TO SET UP AFTER 07Z...WITH GREATEST INTENSITY FROM 10-11Z. A QUICK BURNOFF IS IN STORE MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED BY 13Z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN MORE OR LESS NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SPEEDS WILL TAPER OFF BY A FEW KNOTS. A SURFACE TROUGHINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH BUT MAY OSCILLATE SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD LEADING TO THE SLIGHT SLACKING OF THE GRADIENT. WITH A PRONOUNCED ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW THE CHANGES IN WIND SPEED WILL NOT HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT OVER THE FORECAST ZONES. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST WED INTO THU...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST ON THU. GRADIENT CHANGES LITTLE ON FRI AS WEAK FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST STALLS WEST OF THE COAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL CAUSE ONSHORE FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...REK NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...III AVIATION...43 MARINE...REK/III/MBB

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