Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 250740 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 340 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BELOW FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A SLOW WARMUP WILL FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COASTAL TROUGH MOVES ASHORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SURFACE OBS AND PRESSURE TRENDS INDICATE THAT TROUGH IS JUST NOW STARTING TO MAKE ITS MOVE WESTWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONVECTIVE INDICES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION OF A MORE SHOWERY NATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER...EXPECT THAT INCREASING SELY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL UP IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILARLY MILD...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A BROAD SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL AT THE MID LEVELS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND WARM AS THE DEEP ATLANTIC FLOW IN PLACE GETS SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND THE FRONT RESIDES WELL TO THE WEST. POPS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT AND HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE POWERFUL TROUGH. THE POPS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY CANT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AS A POWERFUL VORT SWINGS ACROSS. ITS WORTH TAKING A LOOK AT THERMAL PROFILES FOR THIS TIME AND IT APPEARS IT WILL BE JUST A LITTLE TOO WARM AT THE SURFACE FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION AND THE WINDOW IS VERY NARROW ANYWAY. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED WITH A VERY WARM THURSDAY BACKING OFF CONSIDERABLY FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S RATHER QUICLY LEAVING IN ITS WAKE A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING DURING THIS TIME...THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH WILL DICTATE TEMPERATURES MOST NOTABLY FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE MEX HAS COME IN A LITTLE WARMER WITH 31 IN WILMINGTON AND 27 IN LUMBERTON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW WITH THIS SCENARIO AND A FREEZE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY. BEYOND THIS A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WHICH WARMS THINGS UP SOMEWHAT WITH A DRY BACKDOOR FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY PUT A HALT ON THE WARMUP. DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MVFR/IFR DUE MAINLY TO LOW CIGS LATE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. EXPECT THE CONTINUATION OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWS FOR INCREASING MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP DUE TO MAINLY LOW CIGS...WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE AT KMYR/KCRE. AFTER DAYBREAK...MVFR/IFR IN THE MORNING WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO MVFR...WITH LOW CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DIPPING DOWN BACK TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY EVENING. EXPECT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AOB 12 KTS TO CONTINUE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING IFR CEILINGS ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. PREDOMINATELY VFR FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ASHORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE THIS MORNING TO THE SE BY AROUND NOON. WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE TODAY AND 3 TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WIND FIELDS SEEM UNUSUALLY WEAK FOR A DYNAMIC SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS DURING THE PERIOD. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS...MOSTLY LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST. I SUPPOSE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS MORE GRADUAL LIMITING MODELS DEPICTION OF THE WINDS AND THE FACT THE CORE OF COLD AIR IS TO THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO A 15-20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 FEET THURSDAY POSSIBLY ECLIPSING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BRIEFLY BEFORE THE OFFSHORE FLOW TRIMS BACK HEIGHTS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST SATURDAY WITH 15-20 KNOTS. VALUES BACK OFF SUNDAY TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL

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