Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 191425 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1025 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING A SHOT OF AUTUMN TODAY AND MONDAY WITH A GOOD WARM UP INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1025 AM SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO ALREADY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. AS A RESULT ONLY HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THE GOING FORECAST. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTH- NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO AOB 10 KTS. WITH A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AROUND UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT BECOMES A BIT TRICKY AS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO SETS UP AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY SITUATES ITSELF OVERHEAD. WILL SEE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH SOME AREAS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN SOME LOCATIONS...OVERALL BELOW CLIMATIC NORMALS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A SUBTLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING WILL ALLOW A QUICK WARM-UP FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS FROM 70-75 ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE WARMER VALUES SOUTH AND WEST. DEEP TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND TIMING LAGS JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE. HIGHS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MONDAYS VALUES BUT 80 DEGREES WILL BE A STRETCH AND IS NOT EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WITH THE MAIN THRUST OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING. NO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BEYOND THIS FOR NEXT WEEKEND A FLATTER MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE FRONT RANGES OF THE ROCKIES TO OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. POPS REMAIN A NO SHOW IN THE FORECAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A METHODICAL RISE FROM FROM 60S AND 40S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO 70S AND 50S SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE NOW WELL OFFSHORE...AND OTHER THAN AN OCCASIONAL WISP OF CIRRUS...SKC WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SO NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS OF 15+ KT DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. GUSTINESS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 18Z AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VRBL WINDS BY 00Z MON. DESPITE THE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS... FOG IS NOT A CONCERN GIVEN FCST DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 40S. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1025 AM SUNDAY...AS CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WITH SEAS ROUGHLY 4 TO 6 FEET...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH 16Z TODAY. BOTH SEAS AND WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT AND AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY BUT REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND 0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE HIGHER VALUES LATE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. BEYOND THIS 10-15 KNOTS WILL SUFFICE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY DROPPING SOMEWHAT THURSDAY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...SGL SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...BJR

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