Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 130059 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 859 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cool front will approach the area from the northwest Sunday and likely stall and meander across the forecast region thru the mid-week period of next week. This will continue the daily threat for showers and thunderstorms across the area for much of the upcoming week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 845 PM Saturday...This evening update concerned with lowering current pops to 30 percent or less by midnight. The main activity ahead of the cold front will remain N thru NW of the ILM CWA overnight. With PWs well above 2 inches, any weak low or mid level perturbation will likely ignite a shra or tsra depending how much fuel, ie. CAPE is avbl. Did not entirely remove POPs overnight as a result. In addition, a weak sfc trof ahead of the cold front still partially resides across eastern portions of the CWA. Did bump sfc hrly temps and dewpts upwards overnight especially with 79 and 80 degree sfc dewpoints being reported across the eastern Carolinas this aftn and evening. Overnight lows around 80 at the coast, upper 70s inland. Previous................................................. As of 300 PM Saturday...Abundant tropically-sourced moisture will continue to stream overhead with P/W values exceeding 2 inches through the tear term. A weak surface low has exited to the NE and in its wake we now have just isolated showers moving quickly to the NE. There is for now a lack of any strong triggers to convection but given the moist column it will not take much to pop a shower so will continue with mainly isolated to scattered convection through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Precip chances become enhanced on Sunday as a cold front drops into the area. Temperatures will not budge much from their recent ranges with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday...The pattern will change little over the course of the short term period. The mid level flow will continue to be from the southwest with a rather deep moisture rich fetch from the Gulf of Mexico. A front will meander around the region as well. With precipitable water values remaining over two inches, will maintain good chance to likely pops through the period. Overall only minimal changes to temperature forecast other than to adjust Monday`s highs upward citing good model consensus. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...A stalled cold front just to the northwest will gradually push through the forecast area Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning as an upper level trough pushes eastward across the Great Lakes and off the eastern US coast. Before this happens, however, expect the continued dreary trend of increased cloud cover and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue throughout the day on Tuesday. The primary threat will be periods of heavy rainfall and minor flooding, especially in poor drainage areas, as southwest flow and ample available moisture remain in place. PW values will decrease from over 2 inches on Tuesday to around 1.8 inches Wednesday into the latter part of the week as the front settles just south of the area. Somewhat zonal flow aloft and high pressure gradually pushes into the Carolinas on Thursday, and though drier air attempts to push into the area, will carry the potential for typical summertime diurnal convection the remainder of the forecast period. This comes from the uncertainty of the placement of the front as it becomes stalled just south of the area, along with the afternoon sea breeze and any lingering boundaries. With increased cloud cover early on and a passing cold front, temperatures will remain slightly below average Tuesday and Wednesday in the low to mid 80`s, with overnight lows in the lower 70`s. Thereafter, anticipate a gradual warming trend through the end of the week into the weekend, with high`s in the upper 80`s and overnight low`s in the low to mid 70`s. Heat indices could reach near 100 degrees on Friday. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 00Z...Mainly VFR this evening and into the overnight period. Will carry VCTS and VCSH during this evening across the coastal terminals to account for continued convection along the sea breeze that should remain inland from the coast. Will have to watch the convection north of the area, that could bleed south into the ILM CWA later this evening and overnight and possibly have an affect on the ILM and LBT terminals. Otherwise, could see MVFR from fog and calm winds within a 3 to 4 hr window centered around daybreak Sun. Look for VFR conditions later in the morning into midday. With a cool front dropping towards the area along with the aftn/eve sea breeze, convection will break out. Will include VCTS all sites and highlight the best times for convection within Tempo groupings. Sea breeze induced South 10+ kt winds will drop to SW less than 4 kt overnight. Winds during daylight Sun will run SW 5 to 10 kt except become S 10-15 kt across the coastal terminals during the aftn/eve from the sea breeze. Extended Outlook...There is a chance of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility in showers and thunderstorms Sun with probabilities increasing Mon through Wed. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 845 PM Saturday...Combined winds and seas will remain just below SCEC thresholds for the ILM NC Waters this evening thru the overnight. Basically, looking at SSW-SW winds 10 to 15 kt thruout by midnight. The overall, sfc pg does slightly weaken overnight and Sun, especially across the ILM SC waters, as the cold front pushes closer. Significant seas will run 2 to 4 ft for the ILM SC waters and 3 to 5 ft for the ILM NC Waters. Dominating periods of 6 to 7 seconds can be expected. Previous..................................................... As of 300 PM Saturday...High pressure over the western Atlantic will keep winds southerly in the 10 to 15 kt range through the period, with gusts up around 20 kts during the afternoon hours. Seas will range from 2 to 4 ft, highest offshore, through Sunday. The exception will be the waters SE of Cape Fear at about 10 to 20 nm from shore, where winds will be a bit higher at 15 to 20 kts, with seas of around 4 ft. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Southwest winds on the lower end of a 10-15 knot range will continue through early Tuesday. Although there is a front inland, it most likely will not make it within sight of the coastal waters. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Southwest flow will persist across the waters on Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front, which is expected to push across the waters early Wednesday morning, and then stall just to the south. Seas of 2 to 3 ft, up to 4 ft in the outer waters, will persist Tuesday into Wednesday. Southwest winds around 10 to 15 kts on Tuesday are expected as the gradient tightens with the approaching front. Behind the front, winds will temporarily become light and turn to the north- northwest, before returning to southwest around 10 kts Wednesday afternoon.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...DCH/REK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SGL AVIATION...DCH

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