Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 010526 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1225 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST TODAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER INTO MUCH OF THE DAY...LIFTING OUT TONIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TURN MILDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 944 PM SATURDAY...A BROAD AREA OF EXPANDING STRATIFORM RAIN OF LIGHT INTENSITY COATED CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN GA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 30S WITH T/TD SEPARATIONS OF 13-18 DEG F OVER CENTRAL NC...TO THE LOW 40S AND T/TD DELTAS OF EQUAL VALUES ACROSS NE SC. LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS AND ALSO 00Z NAM DEPICTIONS INDICATE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION PREVAILING OVERNIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SHARPENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF SE NC AND NE SC. THESE CONSIDERATIONS SUGGEST KEEPING THE CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN PLACE IS A PRUDENT IDEA AS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS STILL AVAILABLE TO TAP. ACCRETIONS IF ANY STILL TO REMAIN MINOR BUT EVEN A TRACE DRIVES AN ADVISORY AND PCPN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LOOKS BEST AFT 9Z AS IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THE VIRGA TO OVER- COME THE DRYISH LOW-LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS EVENING UPDATE...PRIMARILY JUST TWEAKS TO T/TD/RH. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR RIDES ACROSS THE TOP OF THIS COLD AND DENSE LAYER...WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE BREAKING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WHERE TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING IS WHERE WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT ICE ACCRUAL WHICH INCLUDES ALL OR A PORTION OF FLORENCE...MARION...DARLINGTON...MARLBORO... DILLON...ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BLADEN COUNTIES. IN THIS AREA WE EXPECT ICE TO ACCRETE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THE ICING SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING SUN MORNING AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING...LASTLY FROM LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN NORTHWARD. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS INLAND AREAS WHERE THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST. ALONG THE COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO MIGRATE TO THE COAST DURING SUN. WILL INCLUDE SMALLER POPS AS YOU PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF INLAND PENDER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FAR INLAND HORRY COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON SUN AND INTO SUN EVE...THE WEDGE WILL BE LOSING ITS INFLUENCE...WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT OUT...WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. DO EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO CUT OFF SUN EVE AND OVERNIGHT FROM INLAND TO THE COAST AS FORCING WANES. MOISTURE BECOMES RATHER SCARCE IN DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHOWERS FOR MON...BUT DID KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR MON EVE/NIGHT. HIGHS SUN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S MOST COMMON AT THE COAST. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME MODEST SUNSHINE ON MON WILL ALLOW FOR THE WARMEST DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SINCE FEB 22...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION MON NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES WITH WEDGE INLAND AND COASTAL TROUGH EVIDENT ALONG THE COAST. THE WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ON SHORE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES PULLS A WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH NORTH. PCP WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE ALONG AND EAST OF COASTAL TROUGH BUT INLAND WILL REMAIN MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT. THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL WEST AND NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT STILL COUNTING ON CLOUDS AND LOW END PCP AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. TEMP GRADIENT MAY BECOME QUITE STEEP WITH INLAND AREAS REMAINING IN THE COOL WEDGE WHILE WARMER TEMPS MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ADVECT IN ALONG THE COAST BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP WEDGE HOLDING THROUGH MOST OF AREA WITH COOLER TEMPS MOST OF THE DAY. ONCE WARM FRONT BLOWS NORTH DEEP WAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH AT ALL OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE LOWS EARLY ON AND RISING TEMPS TOWARD MORNING. A RIDGE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE GULF AS TROUGH DEEPENS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MID WEST THROUGH TUES. THIS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND PRODUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHEAST. GFS SHOWS 850 TEMPS RISING FROM 5C TUES MORNING UP CLOSE TO 13C BY WED AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON WED AS WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH AND COLD FRONT STILL REMAINS WELL WEST. LATEST GFS FELL MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF HOLDING FROPA BACK UNTIL THURS. COASTAL CAROLINAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP ON WED AND MAY END UP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE ONLY CURVE BALL COULD BE SOME SEA FOG WHICH MAY ADVECT INTO COASTAL AREAS AS WARM AIR FLOWS OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO SEE HOW THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED PAN OUT FOR FORMATION OF FOG. COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. NOT INCLUDING ANY TSTORMS AT THIS TIME BUT SHWRS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THURS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT WITH PCP TAPERING OFF LATE DAY THURS WITH CLEARING SKIES. PCP WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES EARLY THURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH BY FRI MORNING. EXPECT COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRI INTO SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 06Z...SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ONGOING. THE WARM NOSE IS VERY DEEP SO PRECIP OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIQUID. THE ONLY QUESTION IS IF WE WILL GET BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE INLAND TERMINALS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH FALLING CEILINGS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY INLAND. LOOK FOR COLD AND DREARY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WINTER REFUSES TO LET GO. THE WEDGE MAY BRIEFLY LIFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING IN THE EVENING. THIS MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST ON THE BACK END OF THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR MONDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR/SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 944 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS TO 12Z SUN. GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS PINCHED THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. COASTAL TROUGH WILL START TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING THE NEAR SHORE GRADIENT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN NORTHEAST FLOW...FROM 20 TO 25 KT DOWN TO 15 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ALLOWS FOR FALLING SEAS...BUT DURATION OF NORTHEAST FLOW EVENT IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN SCA ADVISORY SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS OUTER WATERS. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE WATERS SUN AND THEN LIFTING OUT SUN NIGHT. WINDS SUN MORNING WILL BE FROM THE E AND SE...VEERING TO S AND SW SUN NIGHT AND THEN TO THE W AND NW OVERNIGHT. BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N MON AFTERNOON AND TO NE DURING THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT MON. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF WATERS OVER MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES. THE COOL HIGH PRESS WILL REMAIN WEDGED IN OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY PULL A WARM FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH NORTH BY TUES EVE. MAY SEE GRADIENT BECOME SLIGHTLY PINCHED BETWEEN WEDGE AND COASTAL TROUGH ON TUES BUT OVERALL EXPECT NE WINDS EARLY TUES SHIFTING AROUND TO E THEN SE BY END OF DAY AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER NORTH. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS TUES THROUGH WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT EARLY TUES BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS BY TUES EVENING IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY PUSH. THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FT BY MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED UP TO 15 KTS KEEPING SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE BUT WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO THURS AS COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL PRODUCE WINDS UP NEAR 20 KTS AS THEY VEER AROUND TO SW AND EVENTUALLY NW-N ON THURS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THURS BEFORE DROPPING IN OFF SHORE FLOW THROUGH THURS. SURGE BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS ACROSS WATERS THURS NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS GREATEST IN THE OUTER WATERS...UP TO 5 TO 7 FT. MAY SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FROM TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER OVERHEAD ON FRI. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023- 024-032-033. NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096- 099. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DL/31

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