Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KILM 160850
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
350 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017
High pressure will extend into the Carolinas through Monday
night. A warming trend will take place Tuesday and Wednesday in
southerly winds ahead of the next cold front which will drop
south late Wednesday. Cooler and drier high pressure will build
in behind this front for Thursday, but low pressure moving up
from the Gulf coast will drag a warm front through the area on
Friday. High pressure will build in on Saturday before another
system brings unsettled weather for Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...Low clouds and some fog blanket the forecast
area this morning. A stationary front lies just to our S with an
area of high pressure across New England and the mid-Atlantic
ridging south across the Forecast Area. Some light rain was ongoing
in weak isentropic upglide to our N and this precipitation was
sliding E and should move offshore this morning.
We expect the low clouds and fog will only slowly lift through the
morning hours with skies brightening slightly during the afternoon.
However, it will remain mainly cloudy through the day. These clouds
will ultimately determine the highs for the day. We are hedging in
the direction of the Euro guidance which has been performing rather
well since the arrival of the ongoing airmass. Highs should be in
the 60s, with near 60 for much of the northern half of the area and
perhaps near 70 along the South Santee River.
Given a front will be sitting near the southern reaches of our
Forecast Area, will also align the forecast with the Euro and
several of the other models by including a small POP for the
southern portions of the area where frontal lift and convergence
culminate. Still, even in these areas, the depth of moisture is
shallow and so would not expect significant qpf.
The front should move back to the N and across the FA tonight and
Tue morning as a warm front as the high begins to move offshore.
This will bring the risk of fog and perhaps some spotty light rain.
Lows tonight will be in the 50s with temps tending to stabilize if
not rise a deg or two toward morning.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...The warm front should be moving N of the area
Tue morning. Warm air advection ahead of a cold front should allow
for much more in the way of sunshine compared to the first two days
of the week. A SW flow will help bring highs into the upper 60s and
lower 70s Tue. We will still be in the warm air on Wed, but the
column will be moistening up and will include mention of scattered
showers that day. However, there is westerly flow through a deep
layer and will confine POPs to chance at this time. A back door cold
front should move across the Carolinas Wed night.
Highest temps of the week should occur on Wed with widespread lower
70s. Coolest temps of the period will occur behind the cold front
Wed night, upper 40s and lower 50s.&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...Ridge will build and move over the
southeast and east coast Thurs into Fri. As the ridge axis
shifts east by late Thurs the winds in the mid to upper levels
will shift to the SW allowing fro some upper level moisture to
spread into the Carolinas, but the column will start out very
dry early Thurs. Therefore expect some passing clouds Thurs
night into Fri but overall quiet weather to start the long term
with a relatively cooler air mass in place and plenty of
sunshine on Thurs.
By Fri, clouds will increase and so will chance of pcp as low
pressure lifts north up the Mississippi Valley with a warm front
moving through leaving a deep southerly flow of warm and moist
air through Fri into the weekend. The greatest QPF should lie to
the west of local forecast area through the morning hours with
pcp tapering off through the afternoon hours as system lifts
farther north. Winds will shift to the W-SW overnight Fri
leaving drier conditions as weak high pressure moves on
Saturday, but it looks like another system will follow spreading
more clouds and rain into the area for the latter half of the
weekend into early next week. Temps will stay on the warm side,
remaining well above normal through the weekend.
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 06Z...Expect mainly IFR or MVFR overnight as high pressure
keeps a front just to our south. Added some light rain to the
LBT TAF, late night and this morning, but otherwise, expect the
rain will stay north of the TAF sites.
Latest guidance continues to suggest the continuation of
deteriorating flight restrictions as mainly stratus spreads
across the area. Will have to watch the dense fog building to
our south, but at this time, the fog is expected to remain along
and south of the front.
After daybreak, anticipate stratus and patchy fog to continue,
allowing for MVFR/IFR to prevail through the remainder of the
valid TAF period. Improvement to VFR Monday evening is possible
inland. Northeasterly winds around 5 to 10 kt will become east-
southeast into the afternoon hours.
Extended Outlook...Stratus/fog possible each morning through
Tuesday. Cold front expected Wednesday, accompanied with showers and
MVFR. Showers possible Friday. Otherwise expect VFR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...NE flow will dominate as high pressure ridges
south across the waters today. A front stalled to our S will move
back across the waters tonight and Tue morning. Winds will veer to
SE late tonight and to SW Tue morning. Wind speeds are not expected
to exceed 10 to 15 kt through the period, strongest today. Seas will
be 2 to 4 ft today, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft by later tonight.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...A warm front will be moving N of the waters
Tue morning. SSW to SW winds will become SW and increase ahead of a
backdoor cold front which will move across the waters Wed night. The
strongest winds this period will be up to 15 kt Wed and Wed eve.
Seas of 2 ft or less Tue will build to 2 to 3 ft by Wed morning with
some 4 ft seas Wed. We will be watching for the development of sea
stratus and sea fog as higher dewpoints move back across the waters
during the period. At this time, we have patchy fog in the forecast
for Tue night into Wed.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...Weak high pressure will build in behind
departing cold front on Thurs. Expect a deeper N to NW flow
behind it but on the weak side. Therefore expect seas to lower
through Thurs down less than 3 ft by Fri morning. Light and
variable winds early Friday will become on shore and eventually
southerly as low pressure lifting up through the Mississippi
Valley pulls a warm front through the Carolinas. This southerly
push will bring seas up to 3 to 4 ft most waters late Friday
into early Saturday.