Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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352 FXUS62 KILM 181739 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 139 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A WARM DAY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS MUCH AS EXPECTED. STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO FIRE OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...AN ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION A GOOD POSSIBILITY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWS: AT THIS TIME THE 850MB-700MB DRY LAYER IS SLOWLY ERODING AND GIVING WAY TO AN INFUSION OF HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY FROM THE NW. THIS IS SHOWN WELL IN TIME-HGT DEPICTIONS AND APPEARS TO BE CONFIRMED IN RECENT SATELLITE DATA. THE UPTICK IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL HEATING TODAY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO AFTERNOON. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS RIDING ACROSS THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE APPEAR POISED TO OFFER WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AS WELL. THESE WEAK IMPULSES ARE CURRENTLY AIDING IN LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NC AND VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL AID IN BOOSTING SURFACE-BASED CAPES WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER MOST OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE BEACHES WITH MAXIMUMS AROUND 90 LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95. ALTHOUGH DIURNAL COOLING INTO TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH CONVECTIVE TRENDS...A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED TSTMS COULD LINGER THROUGH EVENING AS TD VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED WITH PULSES OF UPPER SUPPORT...FAVORED ACROSS NC. ANOTHER MILD ONE TONIGHT WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH NOCTURNAL CLOUDS EXPECTED AND MODERATE WSW LOW-LVL WINDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL FORCING...A COLD FRONT AND OR PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL TEAM UP TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO THE EVENING. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE GOOD CHANCE POPS BASICALLY CWA WIDE. THE MARINE LAYER MAY LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST BUT WITH AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND FAVORABLE TIMING...THE COAST HAS A FIGHTING CHANCE. FOR WEDNESDAY THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT BRIEFLY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING FROM NEAR TWO INCHES TUESDAY TO ABOUT 1.3 INCHES. MEAGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD KEEP SEVERE POTENTIAL LIMITED. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME CHANGES FOR THURSDAY...AND HAVE BEEN FOR A FEW CYCLES NOW. MOISTURE APPEARS TO RECOVER QUICKLY AFTER A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY. THIS ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL SUPPORT...WARRANTS AN INCREASE IN POPS FROM SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE. A MORE FORMIDABLE FRONT...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO DRY THINGS OUT FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OUT WEST AND REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS LOOKING PLEASANT AND ESSENTIALLY SPOT ON CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS NOT AS MUCH COVERAGE AS YESTERDAY. WINDS ARE SW-W...BUT HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SSW AT KCRE IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PINNED NEAR THE COAST SO THINK WINDS AT KMYR/KILM WILL BACK TO THE SSW THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND AT KFLO/KLBT LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH AT THE TERMINALS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR SHOWER OCCURRENCE...EVEN LOWER FOR VCTS. THIS EVENING WINDS BECOME SW-WSW AT ALL TERMINALS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE ANY TERMINAL WILL BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED IS LOW. AFTER SUNRISE WINDS BECOME WSW-W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z IN CLOUD COVERAGE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR OUT SIDE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH 2 TO 3 FT OF SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH IS IN PLACE AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AS THESE FEATURES MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF SURGE OF 10-15 KNOTS AS WELL. THE PRESSURE PATTERN QUICKLY BECOMES DIFFUSE AS WINDS TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY DAYS END WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE 1-3 FEET WITH THE LATEST SWAN SHOWING SOME FOUR FOOTERS JUST OUTSIDE THE 20KM RANGE TUESDAY. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...A MODEST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN WEAKENS. IN FACT THE SEA BREEZE WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WINDS. SAME STORY FOR FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST MAY OCCUR LATE AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A STRONGER FRONT AS OPPOSED TO WEDNESDAYS MOVES ACROSS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS REMAIN UNREMARKABLE WITH 1-3 FEET.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MRR MARINE...REK/SHK

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