Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281147 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 645 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL AREA WEATHER TODAY WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW. MAXIMUM TEMPS WITH INCREASINGLY FILTERED SUN SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP ABOVE THE COOLER AIR...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AT LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN LATE...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES TO MOISTEN THE SUB CLOUD COLUMN. MINS WILL FALL TO THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER. FOR NOW POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO 30 PERCENT WESTERN AREAS WITH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL LIMITED TO ROUGHLY THE 5 NW COUNTIES. NO POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT...ROUGHLY EAST OF THE U.S 701 CORRIDOR. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE WILL BE EXPERIENCING OVERRUNNING OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON SUNDAY. VERY EARLY ON THIS MAY POSE A BIT OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT OVER FAR INLAND ZONES. EVEN SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MORNING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF OUTPUT KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA AS DOES WPC. JUST TO BE SAFE WILL CARRY LOW POPS AND INDICATE PERHAPS 3 HOURS OF POSSIBLE ZR. LATER ON SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE APPRECIABLE. THE WRF TENDS TO CONFINE THINGS INLAND WHERE THE UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE GFS FAVORS RAIN JUST ABOUT AREA-WIDE. GIVEN THE WELL DEVELOPED COASTAL TROUGHINESS THIS SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE WEDGE THERE MAY BE FLAT TEMP TRENDS OR EVEN SOME NON DIURNAL RISING WHILE CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM WARRANTED. THE WAA SHUTS OFF MONDAY SEEMINGLY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SO MOISTURE LIKELY BECOMING RATHER LIMITED IN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR QUITE SOME TIME...BUT STILL BELOW BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGH MOVES INTO PA MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS. OVERRUNNING MAY KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY BUT MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO HOLD OFF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY`S THEME OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER CERTAINLY NOTHING NEW AS OF LATE FOR THE AREA. BUT THE LIMITED SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE WEDGE WILL BRING LESS CHILL THAN THE WEEKEND WEDGE SETUP. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST AS THEW WEDGE BREAKS DOWN BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE MAY END UP GETTING SHUNTED NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. WHILE POSSIBLY STILL RATHER CLOUDY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MILDEST AFTERNOON IN SOME TIME HERE IN THE CAROLINAS AS LOW TO MID 70S APPEAR QUITE ATTAINABLE IN A MODERATE PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME. SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL ONCE AGAIN OF SOME COOLER AIR BUT PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR FAIRLY SEASONABLE HIGHS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THIS FAR EAST. BROAD TROUGHINESS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A SOLID TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 14Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL [PRODUCE NE WINDS SUSTAINED AOB 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE 2-3K RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS THE ENDS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LIKELY AS LIGHT RAIN BREAKS OUT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR SUNDAY...AND TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT WILL BE CONTINUED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TODAY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT TONIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A BIT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY ON SUNDAY BETWEEN WEAKENING OVERLAND WEDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. NE OR E WINDS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LATTER GETS TO SHORE. THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SLACKEN THE WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. WINDS TURN QUICKLY BACK TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS BOTH FEATURES WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TAKES OVER. COLD FRONT ON MONDAY KEEPS FLOW RATHER LIGHT AND VEERING IN DIRECTION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. PERIOD ENDS WITH NE FLOW AS ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SET UP. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO AND OFFSHORE DELMARVA REGION. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE ACQUIRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS OPENS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UP TO A BROAD SWATH OF FLOW AROUND WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS ALLOWS SOME ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND/OR SEAS INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...31 SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR

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