Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 160929 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 429 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will reach across the Carolinas as it moves by to the south Thursday through early Saturday. A fair day Saturday may be followed by a chance of rain Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure will build in late Sunday through Tuesday. A chance of rain will return to the area the middle of next week as a storm system moves across the Southeast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 330 AM Thursday...Amplified upper trof affecting the Eastern 1/3rd of the U.S. this period with the upper trof axis off the East Coast resulting in deep cyclonic NW flow thru the atm column. The upper troffing will lessen its grip tonight as heights increase due to the approach of s/w ridging aloft. Sfc high pressure centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico will ridge to the area later today thru tonight, lessening the cyclonic NW flow at the sfc. Will see jet stream thin cirrus move across the FA this period, with the more opaque cirrus north of the ILM CWA. Various model MOS guidance very similar to one another with max/min temps and see no reason to detour from their readings.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 330 AM Thursday...Longwave upper troffing affecting the Eastern 1/3rd of the U.S. this week appears to be in for some changes given various model solutions. Mid-level s/w ridging to develop and push to the area by Sat with the ridge axis aloft pushing off the East coast late Sat. A southern stream weak mid-level s/w trof, that was once a closed Low over the SW States Thu/Fri, will dampen-some as it tracks east, reaching the ILM CWA late Sat thru Sat night. At the sfc, a weak sfc low or just plain sfc troffing, will affect the area Sat night. Dynamics sfc and aloft remain weak but enough to include a low chance for pcpn, with Pops highest relatively speaking, along and off the coast. With all of this said, looking at mainly clear skies and benign weather on Fri with moderating temps to around normal climo values. For Sat, temps further increase to above climo, however increasing clouds during Sat followed by a low chance for light showers late Sat thru Sat night.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 3 AM Thursday...Shortwave axis traversing the area in the mid levels Sunday morn while deep and low layer moisture move offshore. Low level thermal trough axis will move off the coast early so even though boundary layer winds remain northerly there will be enough temperature recovery for a mild afternoon. Over the next few days some impressive pattern amplification will be underway with the Carolinas just downstream of the developing ridge axis. A fairly strong upper low will traverse TX/Mexico and move into the Gulf over the midweek period but continues to slow in model guidance. Its local effects if eany will be relegated to beyond the long term. The proper part of the forecast period will thus feature increasing warmth unless some of the older and less favored quicker southern branch solutions pan out.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 06Z...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hr Taf Issuance Period. A bkn deck of altocu clouds at 7k feet will move off the SC coast by 07Z. Only clouds there-after will be occasional jetstream thin cirrus. Winds will stay active thru the period due to a tightened sfc pg, combined with CAA that will occur now thru early this aftn. Will also see gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range from generally 15Z to 22Z as stronger winds aloft mix down to the sfc. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Primarily VFR. Possible MVFR/IFR conditions Sat night thru Sun due to the passage of a low pressure system. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Thursday...SCA continues across all waters thru mid-morning. Very borderline SCA conditions at the moment with mainly wind gusts to 25 kt and residual 6 foot seas across portions of the local waters. Look for conditions to improve from south to north with the sfc pg relaxing-some and the CAA becoming neutral. Conditions may improve enough to drop the SCA across the ILM SC waters at the next update. High pressure centered over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will ridge northeast across the waters tonight. This will result in both winds and seas continuing to diminish and subside respectively during tonight. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Thursday...Benign conditions for Friday with high pressure ridging in from the northeast Gulf of Mexico. For Friday night through daytime Sat, the center of the high will move across Florida and offshore from it`s east coast. Ridging from the high will continue to affect the ILM waters with a semi-relaxed sfc pg that yields around 10 kt for Friday and 10 to 15 kt Sat. A disorganized and weak low pressure system will track from the Gulf Coast states across the local waters Sat night. At this time, models indicate little to no intensification as it moves across the area waters Sat night and therefore will continue with a rather subtle wind and seas forecast. Will include low Pops for light pcpn Sat night. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Though an upper disturbance will be swinging through on Sunday the surface gradient will remain quite light. NW winds of around 10kt may occasionally gust to 15. High pressure then slides by to our north turning wind from NW to NE. Little change in seas or wind speed expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DCH

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.