Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 180918 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 518 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING AN AUTUMN CHILL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DRY FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR...MAINTAINING FALL WEATHER MIDDLE THROUGH LATE WEEK. LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 518 AM SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WAS FINDING ITS WAY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC INTERIOR POISED TO BREACH THE VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY FRONT BUT LITTLE EXPECTED EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY ASIDE FROM STRANDS OF UPSTREAM CIRRUS IMPINGING THE GULF STATES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE DAYBREAK UPDATE...HELD ONTO MAXIMUMS THIS AFTERNOON A DEGREE OR 2 ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE FAMILY MEMBERS THAT TYPICALLY/HISTORICALLY HAVE COOL BIAS IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MOUNTAIN-RIDGE INDUCED CIRRUS IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA BUT A FEW STREAKS ARE BEING BORN OFF THE HIGH UP-SLOPES. THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TO KICK OFF SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE FARTHER EAST HURRICANE GONZALO EXITS BERMUDA HAVING RAKED THE PINK SAND BEACHES AND CORAL REEFS WITH STRONG WAVES AND WINDS. SE NC AND NE SC WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY TODAY WITH ASSISTANCE OF DRY AND MILD AIR MOVING DOWN THE MOUNTAINS COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN USHERING OF COOLER AIR WILL BE FELT MORESO AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS WINDS TURN NNW AND INCREASE AT AND ABOVE THE SURFACE. THUS AFTER A DAY WHERE LOW 80S WILL BE COMMON...MINIMUMS AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL HAVE DROPPED 30 DEG FROM THE MAXIMUMS...AND WEST OF I-95 AT SUNRISE SUNDAY UPPER 40S WILL LIKELY PREVAIL. RAIN CHANCE TODAY ZERO WITH ARID AIR AND WEST FLOW AND IF YOU LIKE WARM AND DRY SATURDAYS...THIS IS YOUR DAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY TO BASICALLY OVERHEAD BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES TO AN END MIDDAY SUNDAY BUT THE VERY DRY AIRMASS AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL MAKE MONDAY MORNING ONE OF THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON. LOW TO MIDDLE 40S WILL BE COMMON AND EVEN UPPER 30S IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. MONDAY WILL BE A WARM UP DAY AS THE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES. EXPECT HIGHS SOME 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAYS VALUES. NO POPS AND LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DICTATE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THEN WOBBLE AROUND THE DELMARVA AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE FEATURE FINALLY GETS KICKED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE CHALLENGED AND WHAT QPF...IF ANY THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE LIGHT. OVERALL I HAVE TRIMMED BACK SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES MIDWEEK TO MATCH ADJACENT OFFICES MORE THAN ANYTHING. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AT THE SURFACE AFTER THE INITIAL FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE AIRMASS MODIFIES TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND 50S RESPECTIVELY. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 06Z...SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG AROUND SUNRISE...HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE PROBABLY TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT DEEP FOG...AND GROUND FOG IS THE BEST SCENARIO. ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY OF VFR WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PREDOMINATELY A WEST WIND. A DRY COLD FRONT DROPS IN THIS EVENING...BUT LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OTHER THAN A WIND-SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TUE/EARLY WED WITH A COLD FRONT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 518 AM SATURDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON SUNDAY TO ADDRESS POTENTIALLY A COMMON PRESENCE OF 25 KT WINDS BARBS OVER THE WATERS...AS COLDER AIR MIXES TO THE MILD WATER SURFACE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVE. MODERATELY BUMPY TODAY WITH 2-3 FT ESE WAVES EVERY 12-13 SECONDS IN THE MIX WITH 2 FT OF WSW CHOP AND WIND WAVE ON TOP OF THE FAR TRAVELED CYCLONE WAVES. THIS WILL RESULT IN 3-4 FOOT WAVES MOST AREAS WITH DOMINANT PERIODS HOLDING AT 12-13 SECONDS MUCH OF THE DAY...PERHAPS SWITCHING TO SHORTER PERIODS TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR OVERSPREADS THE MARINE ZONES. THE PRESENCE OF THIS CHILLY AIR OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS WILL ALLOW STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN AND WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT GUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT FROM 6Z DATA IN THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL SHIFT TO NNW AND INCREASE NEAR ADVISORY RANGE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. THIS COURTESY OF IDEAL MIXING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS. BY SUNDAY EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND TEN KNOTS AND ACQUIRE A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. FOR MONDAY...A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AM. REGARDING SEAS...EXPECT A SHORT PERIOD OF 3-5 FOOTERS SUNDAY DROPPING BY DAYS END TO 1-3 FEET. MONDAY WILL SEE A FURTHER REDUCTION TO 1-2 FEET. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...TUESDAY WILL BE A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL DAY ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS...PROBABLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE WILL DEFINE WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FEET TUESDAY INCREASING TO 2-4 WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MJC

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.