Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 201131 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 731 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm conditions are expected through the weekend, as an upper ridge over the Gulf states moves east, and off the Carolina coasts. An approaching storm system will bring increasing rain and thunderstorm chances late Monday through next Tuesday, followed by much cooler air through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 217 AM Friday...Any fog early this morning and again late tonight will be very patchy and largely inconsequential in its ability to significantly impact visibility across a large area given the lack of low-level moisture. However, fog prone locations may see patchy fog for a couple hours, mainly near sunrise. High pressure centered across the Appalachians will ease ENE and slowly weaken, ending up offshore during Sat. A mid-level ridge will also persist. This will keep the dry weather and seasonably warm temps in place with comfortably low relative humidity. The dryness of the column and plentiful sunshine will allow for efficient warming despite the ever shrinking daylight hours. We will be hard pressed to see even a cloud in the sky. Highs will be around 80 and only a weak seabreeze is expected which could shave a degree or two off the beach temps this afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the 50s, lower 50s inland and mid 50s nearer the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 217 AM Friday...A nice one shaping up if you enjoy warm sunshine on a Saturday and Sunday in October. Above normal temperatures this weekend are on tap, as a a dry upper ridge moves east into the region, into air already quite dry. As a result, plenty sunshine minutes are expected to rack-up both days, with highs more indicative of September, and almost 10 degrees above normal for inland spots. The coolest portion of this period is daybreak Saturday, as lows Sunday morning will run 4-6 degrees milder, as the marine influence becomes more influential. Convergence offshore, with increasing low-level moisture, may bring a few low-topped showers late Sunday into coastal NE SC, and this trend will continue into Monday, with warm air advection ramping up. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 PM Thursday...the upper level pattern continues to show high pressure breaking down and a large scale trough moving to the eastern half of the United States by Tuesday. This is slower than the previous run. At the surface the frontal boundary is slower with the GFS bringing the frontal boundary into the area Tuesday night. The ECMWF is even slower with the boundary pushing off the coast Wednesday morning. Precipiation chances start late Sunday night with isolated showers then chances increase to likely on Tuesday with the frontal passage. High temperatures will be around 80 degrees on Sunday and Monday but with the frontal passage will see temperatures falling into the upper 60s to middle 60s by Wednesday and Thursday. Lows on Sunday night will be in the lower to middle 60s but will fall into the middle to upper 40s by Wednesday night. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 12Z...Mostly VFR this TAF valid period. Except for a few cirrus skies will be mostly clear. Winds will be light and variable to light N today, except E-SE at KCRE/KMYR 18-00Z. Winds become calm this evening. Good setup for BR but overall too dry. However, may need to add some BR at KCRE after 01Z due to some increase in low level moisture from this afternoons onshore flow, and at KLBT due to local effects. Since moisture is limited it should be patchy and not predominate. Extended Outlook...Showers and thunderstorms may result in flight restrictions Mon-Tue. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 217 AM Friday...High pressure centered across the Appalachians will ease east-northeast through tonight. The gradient over the waters will be weak with wind speeds under 10 kt through the period. The direction will be N this morning, veering to NE this afternoon and ENE tonight. Across the near shore waters, the direction should veer to E or ESE as a weak seabreeze develops this afternoon. Seas will not change much, remaining in the 2 to 3 ft range through tonight with an easterly swell around 9 seconds slowly decaying. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 217 AM Friday...A nice marine weekend shaping up, as surface high pressure migrates farther ENE to sea, leaving a light to moderate onshore NE-E wind this weekend. Winds will become SE-ESE nearshore both afternoons as a sea breeze forms from the warm inland temperatures. As a result, mariners may expect a few gusts to approach 20 kt inshore between 2pm-5pm. No TSTMS in the mix this weekend since it remains dry aloft, but isolated showers will approach the NE SC coast late Sunday. ESE waves will level off around 3 feet every 9 seconds, and a light onshore chop, moderate at times. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...High pressure over the waters will weaken and shift offshore. This will allow for veering of the winds with a southerly wind by Monday. Seas will be 3 to 4 feet as the winds slowly increase ahead of front that will approach the waters late Tuesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...DRH AVIATION...MRR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.