Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251037 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 640 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOL AND DRY WEATHER. TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL MAY BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT PASSES SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE CAROLINAS. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL REACH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6:30 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...EXCEPT ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST WHERE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER OF MARINE-BASED STRATO-CU IS MOVING OVERHEAD. AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SW ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CRISTOBAL WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AND WILL REMAIN A NON-PLAYER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT PERHAPS TO ENHANCE AN ALREADY STEADY NE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. AIRMASS DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...MAKING FOR ANOTHER SPECTACULAR DAY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...FOR A CU FIELD TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NAM BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN LATER TODAY TO THE CAPE FEAR REGION AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH. DISCOUNTING THIS SOLUTION AS IT SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER...BUT HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A COMPROMISE SOLUTION. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS LATE TUES INTO WEDNESDAY ON ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. AS THE STORM TRACKS NORTHWARD THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT PRODUCING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY OFF SHORE AND ALONG THE COAST. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PASSING CLOUDS OR A SHOWER IN STRONGER NE FLOW ON TUES BUT BY WED INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL OCCUR AS WINDS BACK TO THE N-NW. BY LATE WEDNESDAY THE STORM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS AS WINDS BACK AND LIGHTEN UP. THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE ALOFT REACHING UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL FLATTEN AND BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH LATE WED. THIS WILL LEAVE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW UP THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THE SURFACE HIGH RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL ALSO GET DISTURBED BY CRISTOBAL LEAVING A WEAKER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS A BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND CRISTOBAL BACKS THE WINDS AROUND AS THEY LIGHTEN OVER THE AREA. OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AS AIR MASS WARMS SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS AND H5 HEIGHTS RISING THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REACH BETWEEN 85 AND 90 FOR HIGHS AND WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT AS AIR MASS CONTINUES DRY WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS CLOSER TO 60. THE MAIN EFFECTS OF CRISTOBAL WILL BE FELT ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ROUGHER SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY. MAY EVEN SEE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WITH THE NEW MOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIGHTEN AND IMPROVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LONGER PERIOD SWELLS REACH THE LOCAL WATERS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD LEAVING A WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT SHIFTS EAST BUT OVERALL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TRIES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD LATE THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW COMES AROUND TO THE SOUTH HOLDING BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER BUT HOLD CLOSER TO AN INCH OR LESS OVER OUR AREA. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE BACK UP WITH A WARMER MORE HUMID RETURN FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORMAL...WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 90S OVER MOST PLACES. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE US WILL BRING US UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. A VFR STRATOCU CEILING IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF MAX HEATING...GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE ON THE TIME HEIGHT. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL NOT BE A FACTOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY ENHANCE THE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY. DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS FRI.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6:30 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF AROUND 20 KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SW ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CRISTOBAL WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AND WILL REMAIN A NON-PLAYER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT PERHAPS TO CONTINUE TO ENHANCE AN ALREADY STEADY NE FLOW. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND CRISTOBAL MAKING ITS WAY UP THROUGH THE DISTANT ATLANTIC WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH TUES. AS CRISTOBAL TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH WED WINDS WILL BACK AND LIGHTEN. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHERLY WINDS UP AROUND 20 KTS BACK AND LIGHTEN. SEAS UP TO 5 TO 7 FT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WED IN WEAKENING OFF SHORE FLOW BUT A LONGER PERIOD 10 SECOND SE SWELL WILL PEAK WED EVENING. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A LONGER PERIOD SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS BUT WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND SHIFT AROUND LEAVING A LIGHTER RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. OVERALL SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND WITH LINGERING SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL. SEAS UP AROUND 3 TO 4 FT THURS MORNING WILL DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN 3 FT IN LIGHT RETURN FLOW UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...43 MARINE...REK/RGZ

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