Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 260530 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1230 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS HAVE DIMINISHED AS TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S THIS EVENING. SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE FOUND ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT A GOOD CLIP WHILE ADDITIONAL SCT HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED THIS PERIOD. IT WILL CONSIST OF AN AMPLIFIED AND STRONG UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEA-BOARD AND WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER TROFFING ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF THE U.S. WHICH INCLUDES THE ROCKIES TO THE PACIFIC COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST BY SATURDAY WHEREBY OPENING UP THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE SOURCE FOR THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SFC...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS DURING SATURDAY. WITH LOW MEAN RHS THRU THE ATM COLUMN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES DURING THIS PERIOD. LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA BY SATURDAY...YIELDS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH CIRRUS/CIRRUS STRATUS OVERSPREADING THE FA. AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH FURTHER INCREASES THRU THE ATM COLUMN...MID LEVEL AND POSSIBLY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE FA DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. POP CHANCES FOR RW-/R- WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT FROM ISOLATED COVERAGE SAT EVENING...TO LOW CHANCE DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUN HOURS. VERY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IE. MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS...WILL PUSH FROM SW-NE AND INTERACT WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TO PRODUCE THE MENTIONED POPS. JUST NO ORGANIZED SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO FURTHER AID PCPN FORMATION. AS FOR TEMPS...MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ONE OF THE TOP PLAYERS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS GUIDANCE. POTENTIAL BUST THOUGH...WITH MAV AND MET GUIDANCE NEARLY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES OFF FROM ONE ANOTHER THRUOUT THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VERY BROAD AND POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND CENTRAL CANADA. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS LOW PRESSURE CUTS OFF IN THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE INCLUDE A WAVERING FRONT CUTTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPED OF THE ROCKIES. POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE HIGHEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND HAVE INCREMENTALLY INCREASED POPS. THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES TUESDAY PUSHING THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. I HAVE TRIMMED BACK OR REMOVED POPS COMPLETELY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEW AIR MASS IS QUITE MODIFIED BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA BUT STILL WILL REPRESENT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...MOST NOTABLY DAYTIME HIGHS. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE SMALL POPS FOR THURSDAY AS A NEW SYSTEM MAY BE TAKING SHAPE TO THE SOUTHWEST. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP SHALLOW FOG IN SPOTS. SO FAR THE ILM AIRPORT HAS DEALT WITH THIS THE MOST...AND VERY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE HERE THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIGHT NE/E WINDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN RETURNING SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS... RECENT MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS 1 WOULD EXPECT...A RELAXED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND YIELD WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. A VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION WILL ALSO OCCUR UNDERNEATH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...HOWEVER WILL PROVIDE THE MOST COMMON DIRECTION EXPECTED TO AFFECT/OCCUR ACROSS THE WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL START OUT AT 2 TO 3 FT ON FRIDAY WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 7 SECONDS. FOR SATURDAY...A DECENT 2 TO 4 FOOT NE-E GROUND SWELL WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AT 14+ SECONDS... WILL AFFECT AND DOMINATE THE LOCAL WATERS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A RATHER LAZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WATERS ARE CAUGHT BETWEEN A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. SPEEDS SHOULD HOVER AROUND TEN KNOTS. THE FRONT FINALLY GETS PUSHED THROUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL AS THERE IS MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. EXPECT A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. OVERALL SEAS WILL REMAIN QUITE TRANQUIL WITH 2-3 FEET.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...SRP/TRA SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL/TRA

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