Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 260613 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 212 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Above normal temperatures will prevail much of the upcoming week as high pressure offshore brings southerly winds. A series of low pressure systems will bring a chance of rain Monday into Tuesday, and again late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 945 PM Saturday...Latest sat imagery and sfc obs indicate mainly high level moisture affecting the FA this evening and likely persisting thru the night. Mid-level moisture may approach the far western portions of the ILM CWA overnight. Low level trajectories from the east-southeast will eventually bring the strato-cu deck covering the adjacent Atlantic offshore Waters partially into the local coastal waters and even partially onshore during the pre-dawn Sun hrs and continuing into daylight Sun. No pcpn expected from this stratocu with little to no vertical development of these clouds. Staying rather mild for tonights lows with widespread 50s across the FA. Normal lows are in the 40s. Previous.................................................... As of 230 PM Saturday...A warm southerly flow today has allowed temperatures to rise in the mid 70s most places with 60s at the beaches. An extensive diurnal cu field has developed as ample low level moisture moves in off the ocean. However, although the odd spot shower cannot be ruled out, with no triggers and an otherwise dry column expect another day of no rain. For tonight a light southerly flow will continue with high pressure dominating the western Atlantic. Lows will be in the mid 50s for most locations. Model soundings show that Sunday will likely dawn with a layer of stratus, plus patchy fog, in places. Increasing moisture advection and afternoon heating will likely make for another day of extensive cu field formation as the stratus layer breaks up. In addition, a cirrus shield will gradually thicken as an upper trough lifts across the great lakes and its associated frontal system approach the area. Temperatures in the mid to upper 70s will otherwise make for a pleasant day as the warm southerly flow continues. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Saturday...Relatively strong high pressure both at the surface and aloft will be the primary weather feature over the eastern Carolinas through the period. A series of shortwaves will continue to ride through the Mississippi and Ohio Valley`s with seemingly little impact on our area. The only pops through the period and they are respectable occur with the consistent sea breeze signature late Monday morning and afternoon. Don`t expect deep convection here via the weak forcing but some activity nonetheless. No changes to the inherited temperature forecast with highs in the middle to upper 70s and lows in the middle to mostly upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 4 AM Saturday...Surface low over the Ohio valley Tuesday will track NE into New England by Wednesday, propelling a cold front across the Carolinas, and a chance of showers and a few TSTMS. The front will scoot offshore Wednesday. High pressure will very briefly build in from the NW, but a progressive southern stream system will snap us right back into a warm air advection pattern Thursday, with a storm and decent rainfall potential late Thursday into Friday. It appears right now high pressure will build in just in time to bring a drying and slight cooling trend into Saturday. Temperatures overall to run a little above normal for late March this period. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 06Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period in a mild and moist weak southerly return flow. Winds will generally be SE to S up to 10 kts in the aftn but otherwise 5 kts or less. An expansive cu field just off shore may get pushed on shore in SE flow and therefore included period of SCT to BKN deck around 3 to 5 k ft...mainly affecting the coastal terminals. Expect some cu to affect inland TAF sites Sun aftn also. The mid levels will continue dry but SW flow in the mid to upper levels will continue to feed cirrus over the area. A few SHRA possible late Sunday inland, but not enough in areal coverage to warrant inclusion in the TAFs as of yet. Extended outlook...Flight category restrictions are possible in a few bouts of showers and thunderstorms Mon through Tue and again Thurs night. Expect VFR conditions after cold front moves through on Wed lasting into Thurs. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 945 PM Saturday...Center of high pressure well offshore and east of the Cape Hatteras will extend a ridge axis westward Surface ridge axis axis will extend westward across Cape Lookout and inland to Asheville. This sfc pressure orientation will produce a SE to S winds north of Little River Inlet and primarily a SE wind direction south of the Inlet. The sfc pg will remain somewhat relaxed resulting with around 10 kt wind speeds. Significant seas will hover 2 to 3 ft with a pseudo southeast ground swell at 7 to 8 seconds dominating. Look for this ground swell to build slightly higher during the day on Sunday with periods increasing to around 9 seconds and significant seas at 2 to 4 ft. Previous.................................................... As of 230 PM Saturday...A light south to south-easterly flow of 10 kts will continue through the near term as high pressure continues its hold over the western Atlantic. Winds near shore this afternoon and Sunday afternoon will be a little bit higher, in the 10 to 15 kt range, and gustier as the afternoon sea breeze circulation sets up. Seas will remain right around the 3 ft range through the period. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Saturday...High pressure anchored offshore will keep a southeast flow across the waters through the period. Speeds will be unremarkable with ten knots or so throughout. A slightly stronger sea breeze signal is noted for Monday afternoon than recent days spawning some convection inland and this may kick up speeds briefly. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 4 AM Saturday...Showers and a few TSTMS can be expected Tuesday as a frontal system crosses the waters. This will also cause winds to go flat into Wednesday with very weak high pressure or a back door cold front, but resuming an onshore component into Thursday, as another low pressure approaches from the west. Seas 3-5 feet in a combination of SE swell and local wind waves. A small craft advisory or exercise caution statement may be needed by Thursday evening as the low nears for gusty southerly winds and elevated seas. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DCH/REK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...RGZ

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