Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 081615 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC 1115 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring a dry and seasonable day today. A cold front will move through later on Thursday, ushering in the coldest temperatures of the season for the first part of the weekend. A warming trend will follow Sunday into Monday ahead of the next cold front. Expect seasonable and dry weather Tuesday as high pressure builds in behind front. Another frontal system will affect the area during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Rest of Today...The region is between a weak trough of low pressure just offshore in the Atlantic and an approaching strong cold front well to the west. Low clouds will break up some, but then more clouds upstream ahead of the cold front will work back in during the afternoon. Thus, overall, a mostly cloudy day expected. Low level westerly flow will veer to northwest later in the afternoon as the cold front pushes through. Highs generally in the lower 60s. No precip. expected with this front due to lack of forcing and sufficient deep layer moisture. This evening and tonight...Behind the front, clouds will dissipate as drier air most in with large scale subsidence. Low level northwest winds will bring in much colder air, with lows dropping to freezing or just below most areas. Could even see some upper 20s well inland by sunrise. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Thursday...Modified Arctic air and dry conditions will govern this period. Progressive flow at all levels this period will prevent the modified Arctic high pressure from affecting the FA from more than 2 days. The High itself will ridge across the FA during Friday, with it`s center pushing across NC Saturday and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Sun morning. Will have 3 mornings with low temps at or below the freezing mark, with Saturday morning being the coldest with widespread 20s. Enough of a wind Friday night into early Sat morning will result in wind chill readings in the upper teens to around 20. Skies thru this period will be mainly clear except for Sunday morning when models indicate a weak inverted sfc trof off the Carolina coasts with possible stratocu moving to the coast. If cloudiness and weak onshore flow becomes more prevalent Sun morning, min temps along the coastal counties may actually rise above 32 during the pre-dawn Sun hrs given various thickness fields also increasing. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM Thursday...Boundary and surface temperatures progged to recover some 10-12 degrees F on Sunday as the wedge weakens beneath strong low level warm advection. Increased cloud cover resulting from the upglide will temper the warmth slightly but Monday will benefit from a much warmer start and should actually turn out warmer than climatology. Rain chances associated with coastal trough Sunday into Sunday night will continued to be carried but capped low as they are likely a case of over aggressive moistening by guidance, a seemingly common error. Rain chances should max out Monday as a cold front moves through, though the lack of deep layer veering should keep QPF prospects minimized as it prevents the mid levels from moistening. After a dry and fairly seasonable Tuesday we may be looking at another Arctic cold front on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Rest of today...IFR conditions expected to improve some into MVFR most areas through early afternoon. VFR is expected to briefly develop mid to late afternoon ahead of the next strong cold front, which will move through the area between 18z and 21z this afternoon. Extended Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Small Craft Advisory continues for this evening through late Friday afternoon. Rest of today...No major changes were made to the previous forecast. Westerly winds of 10-15 kts will increase and veer to northwest later this afternoon and evening behind the strong cold front. Expect small craft conditions to develop by this evening and persist into Friday afternoon. Given strength of the cold front, could see some gusts approaching 30 kts in the outer waters, closer to the warmer gulf stream. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Thursday...SCA conditions expected for daytime Friday. Modified Arctic air will advect across the local waters during friday and when combined with a tightened sfc pg, expect winds to be from the NNW-NNE at 15 to 25 kt with possible gusts up to 30+ kt during the peak of the CAA during Fri morning. The center of the modified Arctic high will move across NC during Sat and progress off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sat night. Will only see N to NNE winds drop off Fri night thru Sat to 10 to 20 kt, with the lower speeds across the ILM NC waters due to the proximity of the high`s center. Could see more of a NE wind direction thruout the waters by Sun morning if the inverted sfc trof just offshore and parallel to the coasts becomes a reality. The sfc pg will slightly tighten after the high`s center bypasses the FA late Sat night which could push winds back to 10 to 15 kt or around 15 kt. Significant seas will peak early to midday Friday followed by just a slow subsiding trend. This a result of seas being dominated by locally produced wind driven waves at 3 to 5 second periods. The offshore nature of the winds early on this period, will produce a range of seas when they peak, ie. 1 to 3 ft at 0 to 10 nm out, and 3 to 6 ft at 10 to 20 nm out. The 6 footers to occur outer waters off Cape Fear and Romain respectively. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As OF 3 AM Thursday...Winds initially out of the SE on Sunday with a weak coastal trough in place. Late in the day into Sunday night this feature washes out and a SSW flow gets established and strengthens some. A few 5 ft seas may materialize well away from shore but the coast-parallel fetch may preclude headlines since most of the area sees smaller waves. Monday`s forecast rather uncertain as models are in poor agreement in timing the next front. The slower and slightly favored solutions would allow for a moderately strong prefrontal SW flow that would likely require an advisory. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Friday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... 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