Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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202 FXUS62 KILM 231912 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 312 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching cold front will bring thunderstorms through Thursday, some of which may be strong. Canadian high pressure will bring an early fall feel Friday and through the weekend. We will be watching the tropics for any development of low pressure off the Southeast coast early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Mid level troughing moving across the Ohio Valley will push a cold front to the coast through the period. A clean passage is eventually expected however it will take some time. For the afternoon and overnight hours convection will slowly develop inland with the front and according to most high resolution guidance form somewhat of a line later this evening. This line should push south and east through most of the area through about 7-8Z. There remains a severe threat primarily in the form of strong winds with the stronger convection. The storm prediction center continues to advertise a marginal risk over much of the area. The front will become active again Thursday afternoon. Overnight lows will remain elevated tonight with residual heat, clouds and rainfall. Thursday will be a much different story with regards to temperatures with readings some five to seven degrees cooler. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Some cooler and drier air will be filtering in Thursday night from the northwest behind slow moving cold frontal boundary. A little rain may linger along the coast due to the later arrival of the drying. By Friday the front will stall just far enough south for a rain-free day as a sprawling, cool season-like 1025mb high is centered over the Great Lakes. This high will show little to no movement Friday night. The movement of the front, if any will thus be determined by any potential low pressure development off of JAX. This could also lead to a coastal increase in moisture. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...A stationary front will be located well offshore and S of the area Sat with an area of low pressure positioned on the front, but well offshore. High pressure will be ridging across the Carolinas from New England. The pressure gradient between these two features will keep a fairly brisk NE wind in place across the Forecast Area through the weekend. This will ensure the cool air is continually reinforced and highs during the weekend should only be in the lower to mid 80s and this will be coupled with comfortable humidity levels. Model profiles continue to be quite dry with precipitable water values below climatological normals and thus will not include any mention of a shower or thunderstorm during the weekend. This pattern looks to hold through Sun. The flow becomes more onshore and the column begins to moisten Mon and Tue. There may also be some mid- level shortwave energy impinging on the area from the SW. Will paint more in the way of cloudiness as a wedge likely sets up and introduce the potential for some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. The probabilities for precipitation will be highest at the coast. The heat is not to be found, even early to the middle of next week with highs only in the lower to mid 80s. Lows will be in the mid 60s to near 70 through the period. As a caveat, we will be watching the tropics early next week to see if a weak disturbance is able to develop somewhere off the SE coast. Confidence in any development is very low as is its eventual track. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 18Z...VFR conditions will prevail through most of the afternoon hours. Some scattered convection may affect sites short term but a more organized line of showers and thunderstorms should move northwest to southeast across the area later this evening. The next issuance of the TAFs will certainly have a better grip on the timing and strength. There could be some MVFR and even brief IFR with the activity. Subsequent shifts may want to visit the possibility of fog across the inland sites early Thursday as well. Extended Outlook...Showers and t-storms Thursday associated with a cold front could produce localized IFR conditions. Most showers and storms will push offshore Thursday night into Friday. MVFR ceilings could linger, especially near the coast Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...A cold front will move steadily across the area tonight with a northerly or at least westerly component to the winds across most waters by early Thursday morning. The push will be short lived however with the front wavering back onshore later Thursday via the sea breeze. A stronger and more pronounced push offshore will come just beyond this period of the forecast. Back to this evening and tonight, southwest winds of 10-15 knots will increase to the lower end of a 15-20 knot range and persist for about twelve hours or so. Seas will increase to 3-5 feet for a few hours as well. Lighter winds Thursday should lead to seas more in a range of 2-4 feet. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Cold front comes through early Thursday night turning winds to the NE by midnight. The NE to E winds will last for the remainder of the period as a large area of high pressure sits centered over the Great Lakes and the front remains stalled to our south. Low pressure developing on the boundary off NE FL coast gradually should pinch the gradient and allow for a slow building of wind and seas. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Persistent and brisk NE winds will likely require a Small Craft Advisory for much of the period. The tightening pressure gradient will be the result of high pressure ridging down into the Carolinas from the N and an offshore front and area of low pressure. NE winds will be around 25 kt for much of the period. Seas will be 5 to 7 ft and perhaps up to 8 ft by Mon. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...RJD AVIATION...SHK

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