Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281027 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 627 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE STALLING ON FRIDAY AND THEN MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER TO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. 06Z MODELS LOOKED VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL TO THEIR 00Z COUNTERPARTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES PLUS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM OFFSHORE WILL BRING A HOT AND DRY DAY TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE LESS THAN ONE INCH CURRENTLY...QUITE DRY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. DESPITE A NORTHERLY FLOW AT 850 MB...STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OFFSETTING ANY COLD ADVECTION AND 850 MB TEMPS OF +18C TO +19C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. RECORD HIGHS ARE A GOOD 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE THESE FORECAST HIGHS AND SHOULD BE SAFE. WE`LL BE HARD-PRESSED TO EVEN HAVE CUMULUS CLOUDS AS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT THE TOP OF THE DAYTIME MIXED LAYER SHOULD ONLY BE 50-60 PERCENT. BY LATE TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REDEVELOPS ACROSS FLORIDA. THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL CENTERS SHOULD ALSO MOVE EASTWARD. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...STRONG RIDGING WILL PROVIDE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON FRI. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE STALLING ON FRI AND THEN LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND. THE DRYNESS OF THE COLUMN WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION ON FRI. CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE TO OUR NORTH FRI NIGHT. BY SAT...SHALLOW MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE NEAR 5-6 KFT...BUT THERE IS NO SUPPORT ALOFT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. SINCE IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE...WILL KEEP POPS JUST BARELY ABOVE THRESHOLD FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD YIELD SEASONABLE LATE SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BOTH DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL BE TYPICAL FOR THE WANING DAYS OF AUGUST...LOWER 70S WITH MID 70S AT THE BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME... SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND COLUMNAR MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB...REACHING NEAR TWO INCHES MON THROUGH WED. THUS...HIGHER POPS APPEAR WARRANTED AND WILL INCREASE FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MON THROUGH WED. FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR INITIATION SHOULD BE THE SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TO DISSIPATE DURING THE EVE HOURS. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WILL BRING THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX TO NEAR/AROUND 100 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS AT THE BEACHES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW 90 EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF GROUND FOG. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR AGAIN WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON NO HIGHER THAN 10 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS FRI AND SAT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SUNDAY AND MONDAY.|* ADD TAF AND AVIATION OUTLOOK DISCUSSION HERE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...SEAS ARE DIMINISHING JUST A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN I THOUGHT BACK AT 3 O`CLOCK. LATEST BUOY DATA SHOWS NEARSHORE SEAS ARE GENERALLY DOWN INTO THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE WITH HIGHER SEAS CONFINED TO AREAS OUT BEYOND 10 MILES FROM SHORE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS... HURRICANE CRISTOBAL`S SWELL IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVE PERIODS AS LONG AS 14 SECONDS WERE OBSERVED YESTERDAY...BUT SHOULD SHORTEN TO ONLY 9 SECONDS BY LATE THIS MORNING. TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH DUE TO INCREASING DISTANCE FROM CRISTOBAL AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS LOCALLY. OUR WEATHER WILL BE CONTROLLED BY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE POKING ITS RIDGE AXIS IN FROM THE EAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A COUNTERCLOCKWISE BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS...WITH DIRECTIONS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT ONLY WITH A MINOR INCREASE IN WIND SPEED EXPECTED TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT...APPROACHING FROM THE N...STALLS TO OUR N AND THEN RETRACES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLACK WITH THE SEABREEZE HELPING TO SLIGHTLY ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...BUT NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT. THE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTH. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. BACK SWELL FROM DISTANT CRISTOBAL WILL WANE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WEEKEND. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DOMINATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BERMUDA RIDGE IN PLACE. THE COMBINATION OF THE DAILY SEABREEZE INFLUENCES AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BRING WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...RJD AVIATION...TRA

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