Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281912 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 312 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warm late summer conditions will prevail through mid week with tropical moisture providing showers and a few thunderstorms. A strong cold front is expected to move across the Carolinas later in the week drying things out a bit.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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As of 300 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Eight is located well to the southeast of the forecast area, over the waters of the Atlantic this afternoon. TD Eight is projected to move slowly WNW through the near term, maintaining its identity as a Tropical Depression. Based on its distance from the forecast area and projected path and strength there will be no near term impacts to our area other than possible heightened rip current risks along the coast. A very moist tropical airmass is preceding TD 8, with P/W values up around 2 inches. Combined with diurnal heating and a marginally unstable airmass we can expect isolated to scattered showers with the occasional thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Activity will move from NE to SW and is for now confined to the coastal counties. However, more activity should spread inland later this afternoon as the column further moistens to the west. Expect a decrease in convection as we lose daytime heating, but isolated to widely scattered showers can occur overnight given the elevated levels of moisture.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Eight is projected to move WNW towards the Outer Banks of NC on Monday while strengthening to tropical storm status, making its closest approach to land on Tuesday morning before recurving back to the NE on Tuesday afternoon. Based on the projected track and development of this system, impacts over land for our forecast area are expected to be minimal with no watches, warnings or advisories expected. However, there may be a heightened rip current risk along the coast. A moist airmass and diurnal heating will encourage scattered convection on both days, with highest chances along the coast. Dry air inland will keep POPs and QPF in check for our northwestern-most counties. Temperatures will be within a few degrees of seasonal norms through the period.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Sunday...A weak mid level pattern initially will give way to mid level troughing by the weekend. This trough will allow a cold front to move across late Thursday and take up residence to our south. The latest guidance has shifted the front a little more southward as well as the very dry mid level air. Not enough of a change to warrant any changes to the forecast for the weekend which include good chance pops across the south decreasing as you move north. Wildcard remains what happens to AL99. There is at least some hint of consensus (all of a couple of medium range cycles) that the system forms in the Gulf of Mexico and moves along the southeast coast possibly affecting our area Sunday and Monday. Seems the best option is to maintain slight chance pops which are basically climatology and wait it out. Warm temperatures Wednesday and Thursday cooling slightly behind the front but lows in the 60s may be difficult citing the lingering moisture.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 18Z...High pressure along the coast and recently formed tropical depression #8 offshore will combine to persist moist NE winds through the valid period. This will create VFR to at times MVFR cigs, especially near the coast, along with showers and isolated tstms. The inland terminals may see a few showers today, but it is drier further west and have opted to leave out any mention of MVFR or showers at FLO/LBT through tonight. The strongest winds will be near the coast as well, but NE winds around 10 kts are expected at all TAF sites. Tonight, showers/tstms will decrease in coverage but may continue to develop offshore and move towards the coast. Have not included this in TAF for uncertainty and it will need to be monitored. More stratus is possible again tonight, but not expected to be as widespread as last night due to less cool advection behind the dissipated boundary. Some fog is also possible, favored inland, through daybreak before a similar day develops after daybreak on Monday with NE winds around 10 kts and MVFR/VFR cigs/showers. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Increasing chance of TEMPO sub VFR each day as tropical moisture/shower potential increases through Tuesday. VFR Wed/Thu. Shower potential increases again beginning Friday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Eight is located well to the southeast of the waters this afternoon. TD Eight is projected to move slowly WNW through the near term, maintaining its identity as a Tropical Depression. Based on its distance from the forecast area and projected path and strength there will be no near term impacts over the waters for maritime interests. High pressure to the north in combination with TD 8 will maintain a relatively light NE wind at 10 to 15 kts through the near term, with seas of 2 to 4 ft. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Eight is projected to move WNW towards the Outer Banks of NC on Monday while strengthening to tropical storm status, making its closest approach to land on Tuesday morning before recurving back to the NE on Tuesday afternoon. Based on the projected track and development of this system, impacts over the coastal waters are expected to be minimal with no advisories expected. Winds will generally remain in the 10 to 15 kt range through the period, backing from the NE on Monday to N on Tuesday. Seas north of Cape Fear in closest vicinity to the storm may peak at 3 to 5 ft Monday night and early Tuesday before subsiding back to around 3 ft on Tuesday night. Seas further south of Cape Fear will be lower. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...A very weak pressure pattern will prevail Wednesday into early Thursday leaving the sea breeze as the main driver of winds. With warmer overnight lows the land breeze shouldn`t be a factor. By Thursday afternoon a better defined southwest flow ahead of a decent front develops. Speeds here should be 10-15 knots. Northeast winds will develop Friday and pick up a little on the intensity. Overall seas will be 2-4 feet.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...JDW MARINE...REK/SHK

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