Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 092020 CCA AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 313 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Arctic high pressure will bring in the coldest temperatures of the year tonight through Saturday night. A warming trend will occur on Sunday and continue through the mid week. A cold front will approach from the plains and will move into the area Tuesday and will remain in the area through Wednesday before a second stronger cold front will bring below normal temperatures back to the area on Thursday into next Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 3 PM Friday...Temperatures presently 12-17 degrees cooler, RH values 20-40 percent lower, and pressure values notably higher than 24 hour ago, as the eastern edge of a bubble of frigid air courses westward toward the Carolinas. A wintry bite will greet daybreak Saturday with temperatures bottoming out in the low and middle 20s, with wind chills several degrees lower, as a slight north breeze prevails. The clear sky will help long-wave radiation escape tonight. Plants and pets will become vulnerable late tonight and even outdoor exposed water pipes should be covered or insulated or allowed to drip if the former actions cannot be taken.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Friday...The germane weather streaming headline this period reads `Frigid Sunday Morning, Chance of Rain Sunday Night and Early Monday`. Arctic high pressure entrenched over the region dawn Sunday will migrate offshore Sunday afternoon. Height falls aloft co-joined with a tenacious surface wedge will result in coastal trough formation just off the beaches. The associated low-level convergence will set off a few showers as the trough impinges the coast and coastal interior Sunday afternoon and night. The best chance of rain being Sunday late night as the trough sharpens and the moisture advection accumulates. Warm air advection will raise temperatures well above the threat of frozen pcpn, but the evaporative cooling could keep maximums Sunday below guidance values. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM Friday...A comparison of the 500 mb flow between the GFS and ECMWF both are vary similar with zonal west- southwesterly flow over the southeast United States. In the lower levels the models are showing return flow from the south and southeast and the tail end of a coastal trough that had developed the the south a few days earlier. In the larger synoptic flow cold front from the plains is expect to move across the forecast area late Monday night into early Tuesday. Both the 12 UTC ECMWF and GFS are showing the cold front moving off the coast and stalling to the south and east of the area. Both are indicating that the surface low will now form a bit farther off the coast. Uncertainty is high on the fronts final location. There will be a chance of showers through Wednesday with a lull expected Monday night. QPF values are not expected to be extreme with this event. A second cold front will push quickly through the forecast area late Tuesday into Wednesday morning with another shot of colder air later Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 18Z...High confidence in VFR through the valid period. High pressure edging in from the west will become oriented overhead on Saturday. This will continue clear sky conditions, with slowly decreasing winds. Northerly winds will continue to gust through sunset at around 15 kts, but will become light after nightfall. A subtle veering in wind direction is forecast Saturday, but with speeds less than 10 kts and continued SKC. Extended Outlook...Showers possible Mon-Wed. Otherwise VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Friday...Cold but improving marine conditions for boat navigation as both winds and seas lessen into Saturday. Small Craft Advisories from earlier have been canceled as seas have settled to 2- 4 feet and wind gusts down to 20 KT offshore, with a little bit of improvement into Saturday as a high pressure cell migrates closer to the coast. The sea spectrum overnight will be comprised of NE waves 2-4 feet every 5 seconds and SE waves about 1 foot every 8 seconds. with dampening shorter period waves into Saturday making things a little safer. This is a good time to think about items onboard that reduce the chance of hypothermia in the event of an overboard situation as sea surface temperatures take a bit of a plunge this weekend. No TSTMS or rain or restrictions to visibility expected overnight. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Friday...Main marine headline this weekend` Cold but no Advisories expected Saturday, Deteriorating late Sunday`. As high pressure nearly overhead Saturday migrates off the mid-atlantic coast Sunday, a coastal trough will form near the Carolinas coast. Due to increasing winds moreso east of the 20NM zone, waves will build notably Sunday night to 4-6 feet and a Small Craft Advisory is very possible then. This will be joined by occasional rain showers reducing VSBY to 2-4 NM. In addition to this, its possible the warm moist over the chilly inshore waters could spur a bit of marine fog late Sunday night into early Monday. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 PM Friday...South-southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots will start long term marine forecast ahead of a cold front that will push off the coast late Monday and stall near or just south and east of the coastal waters on Tuesday. Winds to the west of the will be from the west and west-northwest at this time winds speeds are expected to remain below 20 knots. No small craft condtions are expected.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...HAWKINS AVIATION...JDW

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