Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 041026 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 626 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE UP THE COAST TODAY BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CREATE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WET DAY FOR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE CREEPS N-NE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...REACHING THE ILM SC CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE ILM NC CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER SUPPORT THAT WILL AID IN DRAWING IN THE MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC AS SEEN VIA LATEST KLTX VWP. AT THIS POINT...MODELS INDICATE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO REMAIN OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. POPS WILL BE ORIENTED LOWEST INLAND...ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...TO HIGHEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS. THE GROUNDS HAVE BEEN ABSORBING THE RECENT RAINS LIKE A SPONGE OF LATE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. EVENTHOUGH FFG VALUES ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES HAVE DECREASED SOME...ITS JUST NOT LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE CURRENT QPF FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AT ONE HALF TO 1 INCH. WITH PWS PROGGED AT 2+ INCH AMOUNTS...THE FA STILL COULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM THE STRONGER AND MORE EFFICIENT CONVECTION. OVERALL...WILL LIKELY OBSERVE NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING OR PONDING OF WATER ACROSS THOSE NORMALLY PRONE AND VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 90S WELL INLAND...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HOT SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE COMBINES WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING...CREATING MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY HOT DAY WITH WIDESPREAD MID AND UPR 90S ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO VERY WARM 850MB TEMPS ADVECTING EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND COMBINING WITH A WARM/DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SO EVEN COASTAL SECTIONS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S AS THE SEA BREEZE GETS PINNED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...BUT DRIER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FROM TUESDAY WILL PREVENT ANYTHING BEYOND JUST A FEW STORMS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WARM...MID AND UPR 70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 ON THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST. SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS THE THICKNESSES BEGIN TO DECREASE AND MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...LOW 90S AT THE COAST AND MID 90S INLAND...BUT LIKE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOO THANKS TO GREATER INSTABILITY ON HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES...BUT ONLY LOW-CHC POP IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME IS WARRANTED. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS REMAINING AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS FRIDAY AS TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS RE-AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BE LED BY A POTENT VORT DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE HAS NOW DIVERGED ON THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE. FOLLOWING WPC PROGS AS A REASONABLE SOLUTION...THE FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN LIKELY STALL THROUGH THE WKND...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED THIS PAST WKND. HOWEVER...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE A BIT DEEPER AND THUS THE FRONT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY...SO WILL OPTIMISTICALLY SHOW AT LEAST SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPS ACTUALLY BELOW CLIMO...AFTER SEASONABLE BUT WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING STEADILY UP THE COAST THIS MORNING. THE HRRR MODEL DISPLAYS THIS FEATURE FAIRLY WELL...WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS COULD GUST TO NEAR 30 KTS IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION...WITH INTERMITTENT IFR VISIBILITIES. THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION...AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. GIVEN ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER COULD TRIGGER SOME MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL END BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE REGION. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...HAVE POSTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS FOR TODAY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO A SFC LOW MOVING N BY NE AND MOVING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SC AND NC COASTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RESPECTIVELY. ENOUGH OF A TIGHTENED SFC PG DEVELOPS TO PRODUCE S-SW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT SPEEDS. GUSTS OVER 30 KT REMAINS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH ANY MIXING FROM ALOFT DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC OCCURS. LATEST MODELS AND THE KLTX VWP INDICATE 25 TO 35 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE OCEAN SFC. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT... LEAVING A SW-WSW 10-20 KT WIND IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT..WITH THE 7 FOOTERS RESERVED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. THIS MAY BE A CONSERVATIVE SEAS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE 1 TO 3 FOOT UNDERLYING SE GROUND SWELL AT 10-11 SECOND PERIODS. OVERALL...DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 7 SECONDS...INDICATIVE OF WIND DRIVEN WAVES DOMINATING THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THIS PERIOD CREATING SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT A SHARPENING PIEDMONT TROUGH EACH EVENING WILL HELP WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS RISE UP TOWARDS 20 KTS BRIEFLY WED AND THU EVE...BEFORE FALLING BACK AGAIN EACH NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT DRIVER OF SEAS...WITH A 5 SEC SW WIND CHOP CREATING 3-4 FT SEAS...UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS EACH EVENING. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW AND THEN DROP ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL DRIVE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW LATE. SEAS WILL BE DRIVEN PREDOMINANTLY BY THE WINDS...WITH 3-4 FT SEAS EXPECTED FRIDAY...FALLING TO 2-3 FT SATURDAY AS THE SPEEDS EASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ254-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...43

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