Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 282108 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 408 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...AND THEN OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD AND STAR FILLED SKY EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-12 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN FROM THE SURFACE UPWARD WILL ABATE AS HIGH PRESSURE LOW-LEVEL AND ALOFT MIGRATE OVER NE SC AND SE NC DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE AN EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP...WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT FIRST LIGHT THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20 ACROSS MOST OF OUR INLAND SITES...AND UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 COASTAL LOCALS. UPSTREAM THIN CIRRUS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE PRE-DAWN WITH MINIMAL IF ANY IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURE CURVES AS MUCH OF THIS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE ON APPROACH OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE A SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. STILL...CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...AND TEMPS WILL RISE TO JUST BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES WITH LOW 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT...JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS OFFSHORE BY FIRST THING FRIDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FROPA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR 0.01 INCHES ARE QUITE LOW...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AS THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY "STEAL" MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY. INHERITED HAS SCHC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS POP BUT WITH JUST-ABOVE MENTIONABLE VALUES...HIGHEST AT THE COAST. QPF WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP INTO THE UPR 30S/LOW 40S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND SW FLOW. COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING...BUT COLD ADVECTION LAGS WELL BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS LEAVES A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL INTO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH A RETREATING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO A POSITION OFFSHORE BY LATE SUNDAY. BY LATER SUNDAY A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THAT QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE BY LATE MONDAY. WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...CHANCES FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY. I DID MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT QPF COULD BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT. BEYOND THIS TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...MONDAY MAY BE DRY AS WELL ALTHOUGH CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE POPS DUE TO THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. I ALSO INTRODUCED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT MOVING SWIFTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST/TRENDS WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHANGEABLE BUT MOSTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 18Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPAND INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY...KEEPING US CLOUD-FREE WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT. COULD SEE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST IN THE EARLY AFTN HOURS...BUT BY SUNSET WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THE AIR MASS IS FAR TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU/EARLY FRI... OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY CONDITIONS MUCH OF TODAY WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE A BIT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST EDGES CLOSER TO THE 0-20 NM WATERS. 15-20 KT WINDS...2-4 FT SEAS WILL ABATE TO 10-15 KT...2-3 FT OVERNIGHT. SEAS A COMBINATION OF A MODERATE BUT WANING N-NNE CHOP RUNNING EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND A BIT OF LONGER PERIOD BACK SWELL FROM THE NE STORM RUNNING IN LONGER WAVE PERIODS OF 12-13 SECONDS. SINCE WINDSPEEDS WILL BE LOWER INSHORE COMPARED TO OFFSHORE...SHORTER WAVE PERIODS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OFFSHORE...WHILE NEAR-SHORE THE LONGER PERIOD WAVES WILL BE THE HIGHER WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY OVER THE 0-20 NM WATERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LEAVES LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST OF THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND FRIDAY WILL BE A GUSTY DAY AS NW WINDS OF AROUND 20 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHEN 3-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE COMMON. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST 1-3 FT THURSDAY...AND 2-4 FT FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WAVE PERIODS WILL BE QUITE SHORT ON FRIDAY HOWEVER. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND BE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS COMMENCING. SPEEDS WILL BE MOSTLY TEN KNOTS OR LESS DURING THIS TIME. A DECENT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS AND TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY INCREASING APPRECIABLY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE WINDS. PROBABLY SEE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...BJR MARINE...MJC/JDW/SHK

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