Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271942 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 342 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUING TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE FA CAN NOW BE TRACKED VIA A FINE LINE THRU THE KLTX 88D REFLECTIVITY/VELOCITY PRODUCTS AT THE 0.5 DEGREE SLICE. ATTM...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM BALD HEAD ISLAND SW TO WINYAH BAY. THIS LEAVES LESS THAN 10 % OF THE ILM CWA LEFT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU AND FURTHER OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. AS FOR TIMING...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFF THE REMAINDER OF THE ILM COAST BY 5 PM...AND THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE ILM ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BY 630 PM. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO PRODUCE POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ENHANCED CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE TSTORM ACTION...IF ANYTHING...SMALL HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. BY SUNSET...THE PCPN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FA WILL CONSIST OF WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TO OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT. THIS DUE TO WEAK S/W TROFS/VORTS CONTINUING TO ROTATE THRU THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF...AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. THE FA WILL BE WELL INTO THE CAA UNDER GUSTY NNW-N WINDS OVERNIGHT BUT THE THINKING CONTINUES THAT PCPN WILL SHUT OFF PRIOR TO THE COLDEST AIR REACHING THE ILM CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK SAT. THEREFORE...CONTINUE WITH NO MENTION OF FROZEN PCPN. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY LOWER GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS LATE SEASON COLD FRONT. IN THE MID-LEVELS THE SHARP 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SPILLING INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FALLING TO -6 TO -8 DEGREES CELSIUS. AT THE SURFACE LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTING TO REACH 27 DEGREES F INLAND TO AROUND FREEZE ON THE BEACH STRANDS. THUS A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CHANCES FOR A HARD FREEZE APPEAR LIKELY FOR OUR INLAND AREAS LATE NIGHT SATURDAY INTO THE 1ST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND THE LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 30 TO LOW 40S ALONG THE BEACH STRANDS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SPRING-LIKE PATTERN UPCOMING FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE...DRIVING COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA...SEPARATED BY WARM TEMPERATURES. BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...BUT ONLY LIMITED POST-FRONTAL CAA. THUS...TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE AREA WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THEREAFTER...A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND LOOKS TO BEGIN AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH GETS DISPLACED BY RIDGING...AND EVEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE THURSDAY WILL DO LITTLE TO IMPEDE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY...AND THEN PARKS OFFSHORE WED-FRI. INCREASING AIR-MASS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THU/FRI AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT AS AN EARLY-SUMMER PATTERN SETS UP...FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...A NICE BROKEN LINE AND/OR CLUSTER OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND BEHIND A POTENT COLD FRONT...THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER FOR THE FLO AND COASTAL TERMINALS THRU MID-AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART...THE THUNDER IS EAST OF THE LBT TERMINAL. VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DROP TO IFR. POST FRONTAL...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST 10-15 KT...GUSTING OCCASIONALLY OVER 20 KTS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR...HOWEVER RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE START AND END TIME OF THE LOW CEILINGS SINCE MOS GUIDANCE DIFFERS QUITE A BIT FROM ONE ANOTHER. OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR A SLOW IMPROVEMENT...WITH VFR EMERGING MAINLY DURING THE PRE- DAWN SAT HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL COMBINE TO KEEP WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15 KT POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK WITH NO LOW CEILINGS EXPECTED. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS...AND A SCEC FOR THE ILM SC WATERS. AT THE MOMENT...THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM BALD HEAD ISLAND SOUTHWEST TO WINYA BAY...AND CONTINUES TO DROP TO THE SE. THIS ILLUSTRATED BY A FINE LINE BY THE KLTX 88D 0.5 DEGREE REFLECTIVITY AND VELOCITY PRODUCTS. BY NIGHTFALL...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO HAVE DROPPED THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...AND SHOULD NOW BE LOCATED OVER THE OFFSHORE ATL WATERS. PCPN VIA LIGHT RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER...WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY AFTER THE CFP DURING THIS EVENING. PCPN WILL BECOME SPOTTY IN NATURE BY THE PRE-DAWN SAT HRS. AS FOR WINDS...INITIAL CAA SURGE AND TIGHTENED SFC PG TO YIELD WINDS BECOMING NNW-N AFTER FROPA AT SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KT FOR THE ILM SC WATERS...AND 15 TO 25 KT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS UTILIZED FROM WAVEWATCH3...WITH LOCAL SWAN MODEL CONTINUING TO UNDER-PREFORM OF LATE. OVERALL...SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO RUN 3 TO 5 FT ILM SC WATERS...AND 3 TO 6 FT ILM NC WATERS. AVERAGE PERIODS WILL RANGE FROM 4.5 TO 5.5 SECONDS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED WELL OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE BLOWING OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH A DECREASE IN SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL FROM 3 TO 5 FEET ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 2 FEET BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS GREET MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS WILL BE COMMON...DRIVING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-4 FT THROUGH MONDAY EVE. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT TURNING WINDS QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AT 15-20 KTS...BEFORE EASING QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SEAS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT EARLY TUESDAY...AND THEN THESE WILL FALL FURTHER ON THE LIGHT WINDS DURING THE DAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...WINDS WILL RISE TO 10-15 KTS LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SEAS INCREASING AGAIN TO 2-4 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252. && $$ NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...HAWKINS LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DCH/DL

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