Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 311809 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 209 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL AREAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST WITH RADAR SEEING WITH SCATTERED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM EAST OF A LUMBERTON TO TO ANDREWS SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT WAS ONCE LOOKING LIKE A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD NOW SEEMS RATHER CONVECTION CHALLENGED AS THE STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. I HAVE WALKED BACK POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING VIA A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THE MEAN FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST. I HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UPWARD SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE DRIER SCENARIO. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...DECENT POPS WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS VERY SLOWLY. THE TROUGH WEAKENS FOR THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WEAK SURFACE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO ACQUIRE MORE DEFINITION IN THE FORM OF A WEDGE EVENT. IT APPEARS THE BEST MOISTURE WITH THIS SETUP POOLS TOWARD THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED FOR DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME AND MAY BE LIMITED TO JUST SHOWERS AND OR LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. I ADJUSTED THE WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A STRETCH. TEMPERATURES COOL A LITTLE FOR THE WEEKEND COMPARED TO THE SEASONAL NORMALS WE SHOULD SEE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE COMING TO AN END. THE NAM STILL IS PESSIMISTIC...WITH HIGH POPS THROUGH 00Z. THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE AND WILL BACK OFF OF THIS SCENARIO. TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INTRODUCING FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT HAS THE MOST DENSE FOG INLAND...WHICH IS COUNTER INTUITIVE SINCE MOST OF THE RAIN OCCURRED NEAR THE COAST. PERHAPS BETTER RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL RESIDE INLAND AND THIS IS THE REASON THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON. LOOK FOR POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z. TUESDAY...BECOMING VFR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...THE INCREASE IN WINDS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 15 KNOTS EXCEPT IN AND NEAR CONVECTION THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED UNDER A VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. MOSTLY DICTATED BY THE SEA BREEZE...EXPECT A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION MOST OF THE TIME WITH SPEEDS OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT MAY DEVELOP WITH THE LAND BREEZE EACH MORNING. SEAS WILL REFLECT THE WEAK WIND FIELDS AND CONTINUE IN A 1-3 FOOT RANGE. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...EXCELLENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS...TEN KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 1-2 FEET WILL CONTINUE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DL MARINE...REK

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