Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 301402 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1001 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...REMAINING NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NE OF BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. ALOFT...A RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVERHEAD WHILE JUST ONLY SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NE. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL CONTINUE THE WARM...BUT AT TIMES SHOWERY...WEATHER TODAY. MOIST ADVECTION ON LONG E/SE FETCH IS FINALLY OVERCOMING THE CONTINENTAL DRY AIR AND SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION AND OVER GEORGETOWN COUNTY THIS MORNING. AS NOTED YESTERDAY...AIR PARCELS ARE ACTUALLY ORIGINATING OVER SE CANADA BEFORE TRAVERSING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE RIDGE AND ADVECTING BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE AIRMASS IS OF DRY ORIGIN...AND THUS IT IS DIFFICULT TO CREATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT TODAY THAT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT STILL ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE CURRENT HRRR IS PERFORMING WELL AND IS LEANED UPON FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AT THE COAST WILL BE MOST FAVORED THIS MORNING...THEN TRENDING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS DUE TO A SURGE OF DRIER AIR FORECAST BY LOWER PWATS ON SOUNDINGS AND PLAN-VIEW GUIDANCE...AND NOTED ON WV SATELLITE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT WEST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN. HAVE BUMPED POP TO CHC...USING THE SCT WORDING HOWEVER...ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST THIS MORNING...AND THEN ADDED ISOLATED TO THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS AFTN. THE DRY PUSH SHOULD KEEP SHOWER COVERAGE TO SCATTERED AT BEST HOWEVER...ENDING BEFORE DARK...AND NO LIGHTNING IS ANTICIPATED. HAVE BEEN FORECASTING HIGHS TOO LOW THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO EVEN WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW HAVE FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...AND AM EXPECTING 80-82 AT THE BEACHES...TO AS HIGH AS 90 FROM KINGSTREE TO BENNETTSVILLE AND LUMBERTON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 60S...MID 60S AT THE BEACHES. WILL NEED TO WATCH ONCE AGAIN FOR ISOLATED ADVECTION SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CAPE FEAR REGION...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT MENTIONABLE POP FROM THE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS BY MONDAY. QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT AT THE SURFACE WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ASIDE FROM SOME DIURNAL CU AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWER ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. A STEADY STREAM OF MOIST AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO 70 AND DAY TIME HIGHS MID HIGHS TO NEAR 90. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND AS TROUGH DISPLACES THE HIGH FURTHER EAST AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT A BIT THROUGH MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AS SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...TAPPING INTO INCREASING GULF MOISTURE. PCP WATER VALUES DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH SUN MORNING WILL BE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY MON AFTN INTO MON NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AHEAD OF FRONT ON MONDAY. EITHER WAY THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WEST OF AREA ON MONDAY...AFFECTING MORE OF THE I95 CORRIDOR OR WEST. BY MONDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION MAY CUT OFF OVER THE GULF AS RIDGE GETS NUDGED SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL STRETCH OUT THE FRONT MORE WEST TO EAST JUST NORTHWEST OR OVER FORECAST AREA BY TUES MORNING AND WILL CAUSE IT TO MOVE SLOWER OR STALL. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT WILL PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE MONDAY AS CAP BECOMES ERODED...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. ONCE DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF MON EVENING SHOULD BE LEFT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OVER AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH AND EAST ON TUES BUT AS THE NORTHERN PORTION MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...IT MAY CUT OFF TO THE SOUTH LEAVING FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA FROM W-SW TO E-NE THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND BUILD DOWN BEHIND IT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BUT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON WED WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWARD. THE LATEST GFS RUN WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT NORTHWARD...BUT EITHER WAY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE MAY WIN OUT OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS WOULD HAVE LOW OVER GA/SC BORDER WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND GUSTY WINDS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CHC OF PCP EACH DAY WITH GREATEST CHC TUES/WED AS FRONT SAGS OVER AREA. CLOUDS...PCP AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR SO BELOW CLIMO DURING THE DAY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD....WHILE KEEPING NIGHTTIME TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN LOW/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART CLOUD LEVELS WILL BE VFR. LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-SE BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR KILM THROUGH MID MORNING BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MODELS AGAIN SUGGEST MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TUE AND WED. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY AS EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED WELL NE OF BERMUDA CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE LOCALLY. THE GRADIENT REMAINS PRETTY WEAK...SO E/SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...INCREASING FROM 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING TO 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN AND EARLY TONIGHT. A RETURN TO 5-10 KTS IS FORECAST LATE. THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE NEARLY ENTIRELY SWELL DOMINATED...AS A 4 FT AT 9 SEC EASTERLY SWELL PERSISTS...PUSHING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...SE WIND EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC BEGINS TO RETREAT. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS HEADING INTO TUES WHICH WILL HELP TO VEER WINDS AROUND TO THE S-SW AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM LESS THAN 10 KTS SUN INTO MON UP TO AROUND 10 KTS OR SO BY TUES MORNING. THE LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY FETCH WITH A PERIOD UP TO 9 SECONDS WILL COMBINE A SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TUES INTO WED AS COLD FRONT LAYS DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS AND STALLS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST. WINDS MAY BECOME VARIABLE DEPENDING WHERE FRONT STALLS WITH N-NE WINDS ON NORTH SIDE OF FRONT AND S-SE WINDS ON SOUTH SIDE. WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MRR MARINE...JDW/RGZ

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