Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 232348 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 748 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 7:45 PM WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE CURVE IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE ACCORDINGLY. NO CHANGES TO THE TEXT ZONE PRODUCT WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: AFTER A SPARKLING APRIL DAY WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT IN MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK THURSDAY UNDER A UNOBSTRUCTED CELESTIAL DOME AND A COOL AND DRY RESIDENT AIR MASS. MINIMUMS AROUND 40 OVER OUR NORTHERN TIER FROM HOLLY SHELTER TO ELIZABETHTOWN TO ST PAULS TO BENNETTSVILLE IS EXPECTED...MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE OVER THE INTERIOR AND UPPERS 40S TO AROUND 50 AT THE BEACHES. THE CLEAR AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD VIEWING OF THE LYRIDS METEOR SHOWER...WHICH ALTHOUGH IS JUST PAST PEAK DOES CONTINUE TO OFFER A NIGHT SHOWING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW WILL BRING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND SUSTAIN MODERATE SPEEDS. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY OFF-SET IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RUN 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL MAKE THURSDAY A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NORTH...BECOMING SE BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL WARMING...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW CLIMO...LOW 70S MOST PLACES. AMPLE LATE- APRIL SUNSHINE WILL MAKE IT FEEL WARMER THAN THAT HOWEVER. HIGH SHIFTING FURTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INTRODUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND KEEP LOWS ABOVE NORMAL...FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPR 50S. MINS MAY ACTUALLY BE REACHED MID-OVERNIGHT AND START TO CLIMB TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...AND HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY ATYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE IN THE HOURLIES. FRIDAY GETS MORE INTERESTING. HIGH OFFSHORE LETS WARM/MOIST RETURN FLOW FLOOD INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF A 5H IMPULSE AND COLD FRONT. WHILE THIS IMPULSE WILL FOCUS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND WILL CROSS A BIT EARLY TO TAP MAXIMUM HEATING...CONVECTION IS LIKELY FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. THE EARLY CROSSING OF THE IMPULSE MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING...KEEPING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAK EVEN WITH SBCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND LLJ WINDS NEARING 40 KTS. SPC HAS THE AREA OUTLINED IN A "SEE TEXT" IN THE SWODY3...BUT AT THIS TIME SEE ONLY A MARGINAL RISK FOR ANY SEVERE CONVECTION. WILL KEEP POP AT HIGH CHC ACROSS THE NORTH...LOW CHC SOUTH HOWEVER. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL JUMP WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THANKS TO ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED REMAINS ON THE EVENTS FOR NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL LOW WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOR THE WEEKEND...IT STILL LOOKS RATHER NICE AND UNEVENTFUL FOR OUR AREA AS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ALLOW A WEDGE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH SUNDAY. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POPS FOR MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW STARTS TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING. AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THE TIMING OF THE LOW...MONDAY MAY ACTUALLY END UP DRY. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK REMAIN ESSENTIALLY IN PLACE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REIGNS OVER THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NORTH WINDS AOB 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN RAISED WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AND DRY LOW LEVELS. THURSDAY...VFR PREVAILS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON AOB 10 KTS...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY. VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 7:45 PM WEDNESDAY...SEAS DOWN TO AROUND 2 FT THROUGHOUT THE WATERS SO HAVE CAPPED THEM ACCORDINGLY IN THE LATEST UPDATE. THAT IS THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY HAVE KEPT INSHORE SEAS TAME AND MOSTLY FLATTENED...WHILE FARTHER OFFSHORE MORE CHOP AND SEA-HEIGHTS AROUND 3 FEET IN A SHORT-PERIOD PITCH PREVAILED. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NW WINDS WILL TEND MORE TO TRUE NORTH WITH MODERATE WIND-SPEEDS SUSTAINED AND OUTER WATERS MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO 20 KT GUSTS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AS SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OFFSHORE. WEAK SE SWELL OF 1 FOOT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND NORTHERLY CHOP. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING OFFSHORE FRIDAY WILL CREATE LIGHT WINDS ON THURSDAY OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH DIRECTION VEERING FROM NE THURSDAY MORNING...TO SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY MOST OF FRIDAY...BUT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...TURNING WINDS TO THE NW AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE WIND-WAVE DOMINATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH 1-3 FT SEAS EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN ON THE NW WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FOR THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A NICE PERIOD FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. FOR SATURDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS UNDER A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT REMAINS ON SCHEDULE FOR SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS BRIEFLY TO 10-15 KNOTS. FINALLY FOR MONDAY...WINDS WILL TURN ONCE AGAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN ON THE LOWER END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ALONG WITH THE WIND SHIFTS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...REK/JDW NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK

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