Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 010540 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1240 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The area will grow increasingly warm ahead of a strong cold front Wednesday night. Seasonably cool temperatures will follow late week, with temperatures possibly falling below freezing Saturday morning. A warming trend is expected Sunday through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 900 PM Tuesday...Winds were strong just above the boundary layer this eve, up to 30 to 40 kt. These strong SW winds will persist and this will keep winds elevated which will preclude the development of widespread significant fog. Across the cooler shelf waters, mixing should be less effective. We expect widespread low stratus to develop overnight. The risk for significant sea fog will increase during the late night hours. The marine stratus may have a tendency to lower, although water temps are not as cool as they normally are for the beginning of March. We have added some fog to portions of the coast overnight. A few marine showers may come close to the beaches, but we are keeping it dry overnight as some very light shower activity to our N moves E, but stays just to the N of the FA. Previous lows were raised a degree or two given the high dewpoints, thickening clouds and elevated winds. Lows should be mainly in the mid 60s. Increasingly strong warm advection in advance of the next cold front will lead to impressively warm temperatures on Wednesday, with lower to mid 80s most places and 70s at the beaches. A spot shower is possible during the day, but a more substantial shower and thunderstorm risk will hold off til Wednesday night. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...A cold front with fairly strong wind fields will be entering the area Wednesday night. SPC has outlined a Marginal Risk area-wide. Given that WRF/GFS show roughly 300-600 J/Kg of MLCAPE especially over western zones this seems plausible. Wind damage will be the main severe weather form with a shallow EML above the surface inversion and some mid level dry air lingering into at least the first part of the overnight. Similarly 850mb winds may ramp up to 50kt. This boundary and its associated moisture push offshore very quickly Thursday morning allowing for some pretty robust cold advection, possibly even leading to a non-diurnal temperature curve. This cold advection shuts off Thursday night but not before cooling the airmass sufficiently to bring seasonably cool low temperatures. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 325 AM Tuesday...Main theme this period is seasonably cold, and below normal temperatures on Saturday, where sub freezing readings may prevail at daybreak Saturday as strong high pressure migrates across the region. The cold early Saturday could damage early blooms or flowering crops. The high will slip off the SE coast Sunday allowing the start of a warming trend. Late Monday a cold front will approach from the west, but with the parent low over the Great Lakes, the front may not be very powerful here locally. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 06Z...Complex forecast the next 24 hours with fog, stratus, strong winds, and thunderstorms all expected. High pressure offshore will continue to be the dominant feature through the valid period, but the gradient will become increasingly pinched ahead of a strong cold front which will move into the area late Wednesday night. As this occurs, SW winds will steadily increase, becoming around 10 kts tonight, and then rising to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts after sunrise, and persisting through the end of this valid period. These strong winds will mostly preclude fog overnight, the exception being at CRE/MYR where sea fog may impact the terminals at times through Wed morning, but stratus will likely become widespread and lower to IFR/LIFR overnight. This stratus will break a few hours after sunrise with VFR expected during the aftn before the cold front approaches late. Thunderstorms are expected along this front, and have added VCTS to all terminals late, but most of the impacts from convection are expected just after 06z Thursday. Extended Outlook...Reduced ceilings and visibility and strong winds in heavy showers and strong thunderstorms into Thursday morning, otherwise VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 900 PM Tuesday...Conditions are favorable for sea stratus overnight into Wed. However, the concern is whether the status will lower to the sea surface. Water temps are in the lower 60s and this is above normal for the beginning of March. Thus, with strong winds aloft, there may be slightly better mixing of these winds to the surface then we would normally expect for this time of year. We have added fog, but kept any visibility restriction above 1 mile and so a Dense Fog Advisory has not been issued for the waters at this time. The wind direction overnight will be from the SW at speeds of 10 to 15 kt. Seas will remain near 3 ft. Winds on Wednesday will increase ahead of a strong cold front. We are forecasting sustained SW winds of 15 to 25 kt with higher gusts. This will result in seas building through the day. A Small Craft Advisory is likely for late Wed and Wed night as wind speeds increase to 20 to 30 kt and seas build to 4 to 7 ft. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Prefrontal SW flow regime may strengthen to the point where Small Craft Advisory is needed even if seas fall a little short. A few Advisory-worthy 6 ft seas may join the advisory- worthy winds Wednesday night however as the boundary nears. A sharp veer to NW will occur Thursday during the pre-dawn hours, likely steepening wave faces. Even though seas may be rather choppy then Thursday the overall dominant wave height will diminish along with the winds and all flags will advisory flags will drop. Both will continue to abate Thursday night as high pressure builds in behind the boundary. LONG TERM /FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/... As of 325 AM Tuesday...Clipper like system will bring an increase in N winds Friday but improvement is expected into Saturday as high pressure moves almost overhead, but chilly. Seas Friday 3-5 feet will ease to 2-4 feet into Saturday. An under-lying ESE swell of 1-2 feet will prevail this period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...JDW MARINE...

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