Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 290647 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 247 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BRING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WARMTH AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT MAY STALL NEAR THE COAST NEXT WEEK INCREASING OUR LOCAL RAIN CHANCES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE 850 MB HIGH WILL MOVE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. DESPITE ALL THIS HIGH PRESSURE THERE IS A WEAK SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. RADAR COMPOSITES AT 3 AM SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ACROSS RALEIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT JUST NORTH OF LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN AND BURGAW WITH NO IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS OF +17C TO +18C ARE DOWN ABOUT 1 DEGREE C FROM YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS 90-94 INLAND AND UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN AREA OF RICHER MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH...A RESIDUAL BUBBLE OF DRY AIR IN THE 950-700 MB LAYER SHOULD KEEP OUR SHOWER/T-STORM CHANCES TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST TODAY. FOR TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME CALM IN A VERY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S INLAND. THIS...PLUS CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR ALOFT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD SETUP FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR 70. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WARRANTED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING A RATHER WEAK SIGNAL FOR MOSTLY SEA BREEZE CONVECTION AND HAVE MAINTAINED THESE MINIMAL POPS IN THE FORECAST. PERHAPS A FEW MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE ON THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SYSTEM NOW LIGHTING UP THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MAKES IT EAST. TEMPERATURE FORECAST/GUIDANCE WARRANTS ONLY TOKEN CHANGES AS UPPER 80S ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND LOWER 90S INLAND CONTINUE. 70S FOR MORNING LOWS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY RIDGING AS BASICALLY A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS. AN ELONGATED RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST TO WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD TRANSITIONING FROM A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...NOTABLE FEATURES WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH CLOSER TO OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE POPS ESSENTIALLY EVERY DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE SURFACE FEATURES GET AN ASSIST FROM THE UPPER LEVELS. THE TIMING HOWEVER IS LOWER CONFIDENCE. WITH THE PERIOD MODULATED BY HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...NO SURPRISE THAT TEMPERATURES BOTH MAX AND MINS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BY JUST ABOUT A CATEGORY ACROSS THE BOARD. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...THE RETURN OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE A GRADUAL TREND OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS. THIS WITH ANY ISOLATED AREAS OF AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY AT INLAND AIRPORTS AND PERHAPS KCRE HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INCREASED WINDS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...POSSIBLY PRECLUDING ANY FOG. AFTER DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON 5-10 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS SAT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FAIRLY "FLAT" AND WIND SPEEDS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS...STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEABREEZE. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE WITH SOME 4-FOOTERS LIKELY OCCURRING EAST OF CAPE FEAR DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH TIME AND SEAS THROUGHOUT THE AREA SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FEET TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT VEERING TO SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A SYSTEM CREEPS IN FROM THE WEST BUT THIS WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL TRANSITION. SWAN SEAS SHOW A CONSISTENT 1-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LATE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN FULL FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS...NOW VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SWELL COMPONENT WILL BE 1-3 FEET. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL

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