Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 291756 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 156 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP IN THE MORE MOISTURE LADEN AREAS NEAR SOUTHPORT AND ALONG THE BLACK RIVER ON THE BORDER OF BLADEN AND PENDER COUNTIES. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN A LINE FROM MYRTLE BEACH TO EAST OF WHITEVILLE. THUS THE AREAS EAST OF THIS LINE MAY SEE A THUNDERSTORM. ANY CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL CEASE TO EXIST AFTER SUNSET. A VERY QUITE NIGHT FOR THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60 WELL INLAND TO THE MIDDLE 70S AT THE BEACHES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT AND DRY FOR TUESDAY...BUT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO JULY. BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH MID- WEEK...BUT WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS STAYING WEST OF THE AREA...SW FLOW WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL EVEN WITH SOME RELATIVELY LOWERED THICKNESSES. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 90S...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER...BUT STILL LIKELY ABOVE CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...AS RETURN FLOW PUSHES ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE COLUMN. WHILE TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME LOW-END POP ACROSS WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES EXIST WEDNESDAY AS PWATS RISE BACK ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND THE TROUGH FLATTENS - ACTUALLY DRIVING SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESSES ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY BOTH BE ACTIVE ON WEDNESDAY. MINS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS...WITH WIDESPREAD MID 70S EXPECTED...AND SOME UPR 70S ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...FAIRLY TYPICAL JULY WEATHER WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND A DECENT JULY 4TH WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP LOCALLY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE BUT MAINTAIN RIDGING BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. ALOFT...A BROAD TROUGH WILL FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE SHARPENING ONCE AGAIN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CAROLINAS HOWEVER...SO THIS WILL ACTUALLY DRIVE INCREASING THICKNESSES LOCALLY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 90S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...EACH AFTN...AND POSSIBLE WELL ABOVE CLIMO BY THE WEEKEND. MINS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MID 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH NIGHT THANKS TO THE CONTINUOUS WARM SW FLOW. TSTM CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH AFTN ALONG THE TYPICAL BOUNDARIES...AND AIDED BY THE SUBTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS ALOFT. BY THE WEEKEND...CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AS THE HEIGHTS BUILD OVERHEAD. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO FOCUS ON DETAILS OF WHERE THE BEST POP WILL EXIST...THU/FRI WILL FEATURE BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES THAN EITHER SAT OR SUN. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 18Z...STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUMP UP AGAINST THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...BUT REMOTELY SO. MAINLY A WEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE OF A WEST SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. DIMINISHING SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED. THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. COULD SEE AN MVFR CEILING AFTER THE SUN COMES UP. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER OFF SHORE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND WILL DRIVE THE REGIME THROUGH MID-WEEK. THESE TWO FEATURES IN TANDEM WILL CREATE SW WINDS...WHICH WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY 10-15 KTS...BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE EACH EVENING TO 20 KTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THANKS TO THE DAILY SHARPENING OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND LONG FETCH WILL CREATE A WAVE SPECTRUM COMPRISED OF BOTH SW WIND WAVE AND A GROWING SE SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3-5 FT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND PERIODIC SCEC STATEMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FASHION. THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME PINCHED AT TIMES DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND FROM THE WATERS. THIS WILL DRIVE SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...RISING UP TO 20 KTS IN THE EVENING. SEAS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY 3-5 FT...BUT SLIGHT INCREASES IN THE EVENINGS MAY NECESSITATE CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY STATEMENTS AT TIMES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.