Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KILM 220250
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1050 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO REGION FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK HIGHER HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...NEAR-TERM UPDATE TO ADDRESS THE INCREASING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA. WEAK SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG AN OCCLUDING FRONT ACCORDING TO LATEST WPC
ANALYSIS...AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOWERS HAVE RE-FIRED LOCALLY.
00Z KGSO SOUNDING HAS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY FROM ABOUT 950MB UP
THROUGH 750MB...SO SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH
AT LEAST WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL DRIVE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
SHALLOW INSTABILITY WILL PREVENT LIGHTNING. HIGH RES HRRR AND NSSL
WRF WERE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...AND HAVE LEANED ON THE HRRR HEAVILY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE RAMPED POP UP TO CHC ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT BEST CHANCE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH
ALONG THE STATE LINE AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD. ANY
SHOWERS WILL ERODE LATE AS THEY HEAD EAST...AND THE DRY/COOL
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST.

WINDS EARLY WILL BE VARIABLE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND A COOL SURGE DEVELOPS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
RISE TO 10 TO 15 MPH LATE...WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE LOWS INTO THE UPR
50S NORTH...LOW 60S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST
REGION...COOLER DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN. GFS AND NAM ARE
SHOWING THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO A RANGE OF 0.5 TO
1 INCHES. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL STAY TO THE NORTH DURING
THIS PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FRIDAY
AND AROUND 80 ON SATURDAY. LOWS EACH NIGHT SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE AREA WILL SEE A RETURN OF ONSHORE
FLOW...A RETURN TO HIGHER HUMIDITIES...AND A WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES.
ALOFT A RIDGE STUBBORNLY HOLDS ON THROUGH ALMOST THURSDAY SO THE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A DIURNAL SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND TO AROUND 90 BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN AT THOSE LEVELS
THROUGH THURSDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED EARLY THIS EVENING S OF
KMYR TO JUST S-SW OF KFLO. LINGERING MVFR LEVEL LOW CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING NEAR KILM WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A MVFR
CIG THROUGH 03Z. OTHERWISE VFR LEVEL LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND AT KFLO.
DESPITE GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND MOIST SOILS AT KLBT AND KILM NO FOG IS
EXPECTED AS N WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOW LEVELS WELL MIXED.

AFTER 12Z EXPECT VFR/CLEAR SKIES BELOW 12K AS N-NE WINDS PREVAIL.
IN THE AFTERNOON SCT CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
NE-E.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE WATERS...BUT IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT TO CLEAR THE
AREA TO THE SOUTH. WINDS HAVE RECENTLY TURNED TO THE NORTH AT
41013...AND THIS WILL BE THE TREND ACROSS THE SC WATERS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A NORTHERLY SURGE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY UP TO AROUND 20 KTS
OVERNIGHT. LATEST MME GUIDANCE SHOWS 25 KTS AT 41013...BUT ONLY 15
KTS AT JMPN7. FOR THIS REASON HAVE PAINTED AN AVERAGE OF 20 KTS
ACROSS THE WATERS...AND KEPT SEAS AT 3-5 FT...JUST BELOW SCEC
CRITERIA. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION HOWEVER...THAT A SCEC MAY BE
NEEDED LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY THE OF END FRIDAY AND REMAIN AT
THESE SPEEDS. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE DAY FROM THE NORTH AND WILL
VEER TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY. SEA HEIGHTS WILL START OUT AT 2 TO 4
FEET EARLY FRIDAY AND WILL SETTLE OUT AT 2 TO 3 FEET THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RULE THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AT
10 KNOTS BY TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2 TO 3 FEET FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...DRH
AVIATION...MRR



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.