Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 152243
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
545 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the coast will result in well above normal
temperatures through Friday. A cold front will move through the
area Friday night, followed by cool high pressure for the
weekend. Warm southerly winds will develop early next week and
result in a significant warmup. A cold front will approach the
area on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...A very robust west to southwest flow
will continue to be provided by surface high pressure under what
is mostly a zonal flow aloft. A broad shortwave will push a
front just to the north of the area by late Friday. The near
term period should remain mostly dry with only slight chance
pops encroaching on the northern areas late. The primary
headlines remain the warmth and winds. Overnight lows tonight
under continued breezy conditions will not drop much down mostly
remaining above 60. Guidance is advertising Friday`s highs may
even be a degree or two warmer than todays readings via good
downslope flow just off the surface. Gusty conditions as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...High pressure wedging in from the north
behind backdoor cold front to start the period. The air behind the
boundary will be seasonably cool for Saturday but widespread cloud
cover will keep lows a bit elevated above seasonable norms, which
are still in the upper 30s. Measurable rainfall will tend to remain
north of the area with the upper level forcing, but will maintain
some low POPs as the stray hundredth of an inch here or there tough
to rule out.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Cold front will be offshore to start Sunday
morning with cool, but not cold, high pressure moving overhead
through the day. Temps Sunday will climb to near normal or slightly
above, with much drier air advecting into the region allowing for
ample sunshine. The front to the south will waver and lift back to
the north Sunday night into early Monday morning as a warm front.
This will be the beginning of a very warm period for the upcoming
week, but may be accompanied by a few showers into Monday morning.
Soundings suggest increasing saturation, but forcing is weak, so the
front may manifest only as increasing cloud cover rather than
showers. Will carry inherited SCHC/low CHC into Monday. Strong WAA
develops thereafter, persisting at least into Wednesday as a summer
like synoptic setup develops. Bermuda high pressure offshore and
amplified mid-level ridging across the southeast will drive temps to
well above normal values, near 80 Tue/Wed, with scattered WAA
showers possible during the aftns. An abrupt changes occurs Thursday
as a shortwave and backdoor front suppress the ridge and bring a
wedge of high pressure into the Carolinas. This will return temps
back to seasonable levels with better chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 00Z...Weak high pressure offshore will give us southwest flow
through the forecast period. There will be small window for some
possible MVFR/IFR ceiling, perhaps a few hour Friday morning.
Friday, a cold front approaches from the northwest, however the
feelings from it will be after the end of the forecast period.
Strong southwest flow is expected, gusting as high as 25 kts.


Extended Outlook...MVFR cigs becoming VFR Fri. SHRA/MVFR/tempo IFR
Fri night-Sun morning. Becoming VFR Sun. Tempo MVFR/IFR/SHRA
cig/vsby Sun night/Mon. VFR Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Southwest winds of 15-20 knots will
continue through the period as high pressure resides offshore.
There may be a period this evening when winds briefly eclipse 20
knots. Wave guidance is showing 4-6 feet with the higher seas
mostly confined to the North Carolina waters. Although its
marginal, will go ahead and issue a Small Craft Advisory through
Friday for these waters. A SCEC will continue for the remainder
of the waters. Some sea fog remains possible as well.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Gusty NE winds Friday night as cold air high
pressure wedge builds in from the north following near term backdoor
FROPA. Though some flags will be in effect leading up the short term
it appears now according to WNA/SWAN that conditions will be just
below. SCEC headlines certainly possible for a brief period
however. NE winds abate on Saturday and then turn onshore and then
southerly as the boundary lifts back to the north.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Cold front will be offshore Sunday morning
with high pressure ridging down from the NE thereafter. This brings
gusty winds Sunday of 10-15 kts, with directions veering to the E/NE
by Monday morning. The surface high will shift offshore and take up
position as Bermuda type ridge Monday and Tuesday, driving
increasing return flow and SW winds around 10 kts through the middle
of next week. Wave heights of 3-4 ft will be common across the
waters Sunday with an E/NE wind wave predominant. Seas will
deamplify into early next week before a SE swell and SW wind wave
amplifies late, pushing seas back to 3-4 ft late Tuesday.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ250-252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43 MARINE...



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