Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 100715
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
309 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An offshore front will move onshore today, bringing periods of rain.
A cold front will approach from the north early next week, likely
stalling nearby, maintaining a wet forecast in the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Models in fairly good agreement that the
front will remain offshore during the remainder of the overnight
hours and into this morning, drifting ashore by about midday. In
the  very near term this means that light rain will stream
ashore but be hard-pressed to measure more than the stray
hundredth of an inch or two. As the boundary moves ashore and
available moisture increases along the coast so too will the
chance for measurable rainfall. Inland areas will remain on the
more moisture-challenged side of the boundary for most of the
day and likely not see much rain. Forcing remains weak so the
area-wide threat for heavy rainfall seems minimal at least
compared to previously thought. The NW/SE gradation of higher
POPs should continue into tonight as a coastal trough develops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...A wet pattern prevails Friday and Saturday
as column moisture remains in ample supply and convergence in
the low-levels remains locally resident. Add to this August
heating for a recipe of rain. Pwat values will exceed 2 inches
at times. Wind shear and surface low pressure late Friday and
early Saturday will promote a potential for gusty TSTM winds
with 30 KT synoptic southerly flow a few thousand feet above the
ground. This time frame also represents a local spike in column
mositure. Column omega appears to show dual bullseyes both
Friday morning and Saturday morning, and with oceanic parcel
buoyancy nearly maximized, coastal downpours probable. Clouds
and rain will likely keep maximums a little below normal this
period, while inversely, clouds keep minimums elevated above
climatology.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...Unsettled weather will continue for
much of the period with broad mid level trough west of the area
and abundant and deep moisture in place. Forecast soundings keep
precipitable water right around 2 inches through the weekend and
into the start of next week. At this point confidence in the
forecast starts to decrease. A shortwave moving from the Upper
Midwest to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley sharpens up the 5h trough
and pushes a cold front into the region. Yesterday guidance was
confident that the front would cross the region later Tue and
push offshore with much drier air spreading in from the
northwest. This morning both the 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF have
backed off a clean frontal passage and now stall the boundary in
the region Tue and Wed. The front in the area coupled with deep
moisture and the likely presence of shortwaves in the flow aloft
would maintain elevated precip chances through the end of the
period. Highs will be within a degree or two of climo through
the period with lows running about 5 degrees above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 06Z...Generally an MVFR forecast through most of the
period. Pockets of VFR are appearing inland including LBT and
FLO but they too will likely drop one category towards daybreak
as atmosphere continues to settle overnight. Showers and a stray
thunderstorm will move ashore overnight and affect coastal
terminals (though thunder will be minimal until after a few
hours of heating) but will only represent transient degradation
below MVFR if at all.

Extended Outlook...Periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility
are possible each day due to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Areas of early morning MVFR/IFR stratus and/or fog will be
possible Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Light onshore wind and little waves
through  daybreak as a front remains east of the area. This
boundary will move ashore around midday allowing the flow to
back to the south a bit. This southerly component will become
much more established and pronounced tonight as a coastal trough
develops. The southerly flow and added few knots of wind later
in the period the seas forecast should open from just 2 ft to
2-3 ft.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...S-SW winds will increase Friday afternoon
and persist through Saturday, as Bermuda high pressure builds
landward and compresses the pressure gradient. Seas of 3-4 feet
and wind gusts to 20 KT appear likely much of this period. In
addition to this, numerous showers with isolated TSTMS will
imperil the 0-20 nm waters, as winds and seas will be locally
higher in and near storms. Seas will be a mix of S-SE waves 3
feet every 8-9 seconds and a moderate S-SW chop on top of this.
No advisory expected but a caution headline cannot be ruled out.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...Bermuda High remains east of the waters
with cold front slowly approaching from the northwest Mon. This
will lead a slight bump in southwest flow with speeds around 10
kt Sat increasing to 10 to 15 kt Sun and Mon. Seas around 2 ft
will build to 2 to 3 ft on Sun and 2 to 4 ft Sun.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MBB



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