Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 201900
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
300 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SLIP OFF SHORE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS DRY COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES MID
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
BUT THE CENTER OF THIS AIRMASS IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD QUICKLY. IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS A STRONG SYSTEM IS DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE EVENING WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION FROM THE
DECREASING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CUMULUS FIELDS TO AN INCREASE IN
STRATIFORM CLOUDINESS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. THE UPPER WAVE WILL
TRY TO GRAB SOME MOISTURE THAT WILL BE GATHERING WELL OFFSHORE. FOR
THE MOST PART THIS WILL BE CONFINED TO CLOUDINESS BUT A FEW
SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A CONTINUATION OF FAIRLY DRY MID
LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
COAST PAIRED WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH MILDER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 40S OVER NWRN ZONES
(WHERE THERE SHOULD BE FAR FEWER CLOUDS) TO MID 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. OVERALL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH TUES WITH AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS TROUGH
DIGS DOWN FROM THE NORTH ALOFT. EXPECT PCP WATER VALUES TO REMAIN
BELOW AN INCH THROUGH TUES. AS VORT MOVES THROUGH THE MAIN H5
TROUGH ON TUES IT WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND PCP TUES MORNING IN
CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH JUST OFF SHORE BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THE AFTN. PCP SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST AND WILL LEAVE JUST
SOME CLOUDS TUES MORNING FOR COASTAL LOCALES.

MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL PUSH THIS
FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES NIGHT. A DEEP N-NW FLOW OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH
ROTATES SLOWLY AROUND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST FINALLY LIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST BY THURS MORNING. DECENT DYNAMICS WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE TROUGH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WED BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH TO PRODUCE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST
NC. PCP WATER VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY WED MORNING.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND ON TUES IN WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MOISTER SW TO W
FLOW WITH AFTN HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER HALF OF 70S. DECENT HEIGHT
FALLS INTO WED WITH DEEP DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND FRONT WILL LEAD
TO TEMPS BEING KNOCKED BACK DOWN AND MOST TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S FOR WED IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. DRY AIR WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S MOST PLACES
WED NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE WITHOUT THE BEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MODIFYING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN THE PERIOD. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS REMAINS AMPLIFIED WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD TRANSITIONING TO RIDGING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MID LEVELS DRY WHILE SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL LIMIT AVAILABILITY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. BASED ON THIS WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MID LEVEL TROUGHING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR
TO BELOW CLIMO. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO. DEEP DRY AIR
AND WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EACH NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. GENERALLY SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5
TO 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS RETURN FLOW OCCURS
ANTICIPATE TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALLOWING FOR A
FEW/SCT/BKN 4-5KFT CLOUD LAYER TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INTO TUESDAY MORNING...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT -DZ/-RA ALONG THE COAST EARLY ON...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT LIGHT
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A RAPIDLY EAST-PROGRESSING HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN STRENGTH IN
RESPONSE AND SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 3 FT TOWARDS THE OUTER REACHES OF
MAINLY NRN LEGS. SOUTHERN ZONES MAY STAY CAPPED AT 2 FT AS THERE IS
NOT QUITE SUFFICIENT ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT TO ALLOW FOR 3 FOOTERS.
THE LATE NIGHT PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL VEER THE WINDS TO WEST AND HELP
TO PUSH THE 3 FT SEAS BACK OUT OF THE AREA CLOSE TO THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH TUES FROM SW EARLY
TO MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTN AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFF THE COAST TUES MORNING MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR TUES NIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT W-SW WINDS 10 TO
15 KTS THROUGH TUES AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT. ONCE FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS TUES NIGHT A SURGE OF N-NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR FLOWS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS IN A WELL MIXED MARINE LAYER.

SEAS BELOW 2 FT OR LESS ON TUES WILL KICK UP IN CAA BEHIND FRONT
EARLY WED THROUGH WED NIGHT...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT MAINLY IN OUTER WATERS.
NEAR SHORE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 2 FT IN AS STRONGER OFF
SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE.


LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT THU AND THU NIGHT AS GRADIENT
RELAXES SLIGHTLY. GRADIENT REMAINS STATIC FRI AND SAT AS THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH. FLOW WILL REMAIN
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL RUN 2
TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MBB/SGL







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