Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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806
FXUS62 KILM 260215
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1015 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move south and east of the area overnight
with much drier air to follow and this will confine any showers
on Monday to the immediate coast. A reinforcing cold front may
bring a few showers or thunderstorms on Tuesday. Dry and cooler
high pressure will then build into the region for Wednesday and
Thursday. Return flow around the Bermuda High will bring warm
and moist air back into the eastern Carolinas late week and
through the upcoming weekend, increasing the chance for an
afternoon or evening thunderstorm.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 900 PM Sunday...Showers and thunderstorms blossomed along
and S of a cold front invigorated by a weak wave of low
pressure on the boundary and a mid-level shortwave trough
skirting up the coast. The shortwave has since moved by, and
with nighttime stabilization and large scale outflow, the
environment has greatly stabilized. The front will continue to
sag south and east and all of the forecast area should be N and
W of the front at daybreak, although not by much. The drier air
will struggle to make significant inroads overnight, but should
have its greatest influence from EYF to LBT to UDG and points
N. Have trended hourly POPS lower with isolated to perhaps
scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm hanging on for a
portion of the overnight from ILM to near MAO to near CKI. The
risk for heavy rain has essentially ended.

Still expect a good deal of clouds through the night, thinning
from the NW. Should even be some stratus and patchy fog filling
in overnight, mainly S of a EYF to LBT to UDG line. Lows will
be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

On Mon, a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible at
the coast in association with the landbreeze/seabreeze. Otherwise
we are expecting a dry day with increasing sunshine. Dewpoints
will drop through the 60s with perhaps some upper 50s for inland
areas as the much drier air takes a firmer hold. Highs will be
in the mid and upper 80s with low 80s at the beaches due to the
developing weak onshore flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Cold front should be off the coast by the
start of the period as broad 5h trough settles over the eastern
CONUS. Troughing helps push a cooler and drier air mass into
the region for Tue and Tue night. Some low level moisture may
linger in the area Mon night and the push of the cooler and
drier air does not really develop until daytime Tue. Shortwave
rotating around the base of the 5h trough Tue will spread PVA
over the region around the time of peak heating. This could
generate some convection along the weak/pinned sea breeze but
there will already be an increasing amount of mid level dry air
which should work to limit coverage. The shortwave will be
accompanied by an increase in moisture in the 700- 500 mb layer.
Will carry chance pop along the coast Tue afternoon and evening
with slight chance inland. There is a fair amount of low level
dry air and if storms are able to develop some could tap into
the increased downdraft CAPE. An isolated severe wind gust
cannot be ruled out but the bulk of the activity would be weaker
showers and thunderstorms. Despite the presence of the
shortwave and the base of the 5h trough moving in, small hail
seems unlikely. Freezing level is over 12k ft and CAPE within
the hail growth zone is stunted. May end up seeing storms with
lower tops, if forecast soundings turn out to be correct.

Shortwave moves off to the northeast Tue night, helping to spread
cooler and drier air into the forecast area. Temps end up below to
well below climo with lows in low 60s and an outside shot at some
isolated upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Cooler and dry high pressure will become
established across the forecast area through much of the period.
Aloft a ridge is well establish for most of this forecast with
a trough moving into the Carolinas by next Sunday.

At the surface by the last half of the forecast period, return
flow on the back side of the Bermuda high will see a slight
increase in chances of precipiation by the end of the period
with little larger scale forcing forcing present.

High temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal on
Wednesday and then slowly warm to normal by Sunday. Lows are
expected to be in the middle 60s inland to near 70 at the coast
on Wednesday before returning into the low to middle 70s by the
end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 00Z...Convection became numerous to widespread along and
ahead of a cold front which has been slowly dropping southward
across the terminals this eve. KLBT is N of the front and expect
VFR here as drier air works in. The showers will generally
shift S of the remaining terminals through about midnight. Brief
MVFR may still occur with any showers and thunderstorms this
eve. Overnight, have included some patchy MVFR fog at the
coastal terminals and there is a risk for IFR ceilings, but at
this time, only show this occurrence at KILM. MVFR ceilings will
be possible across the southern terminals overnight. On Mon,
any convection should be confined to the more immediate coast
and our forecast has VFR conditions throughout after 11-15z.

Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions possible with mainly isolated
showers and thunderstorms Tue afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 900 PM Sunday...A cold front is expected to sink south
across the waters overnight and this will shift winds from SW
and W to N. Wind speeds will be 10 kt or less. Seas will be 2 to
3 ft, N and 2 ft, S.

On Monday, Front will be offshore and S and with no surge
expected, wind speeds will remain 10 kt or less. The direction
will veer from N in the morning to E or ESE ahead of next
upstream front which is expected Tue morning. Seas will be 2
ft.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Light onshore flow at the start of the
period will quickly transition to offshore as front moves east
of the waters and high pressure starts building in. Large scale
wind field will remain from the northeast through the end of the
period. However, a weak sea breeze develops Tue afternoon with
nearshore winds becoming onshore with a slight bump in
speeds/gustiness. Speeds for much of the period will be on the
low end of the 10 to 15 kt range. There will be an increase in
northeast flow Tue night a cool air surges down the coast.
Speeds could approach 15 kt late in the period. Seas will run
around 2 ft.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...High pressure will dominate this forecast
with northeast winds at or below 10 knots on Wednesday. By
Friday there will be a break in the high pressure ridge and
winds will return from the south but only around 10 knots. Seas
will generally range around 2 feet with an 8 to 9 second period
from the southeast.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...DRH
AVIATION...RJD



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