Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 202348
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
748 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF SOUTH CAROLINA WILL TRACK TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT WILL BRING GUSTY
WIND AND COASTAL RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE COAST ON MONDAY...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM SATURDAY...OCEAN RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO EDGE CLOSER TO THE COASTAL ZONES THIS EVENING. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW POSITIONED AROUND 175 MILES SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH
CAROLINA WAS RESULTING IN A LANDWARD MOVING BAND OF PRECIPITATION.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE WITH THE EARLY
EVENING UPDATE EXCEPT TO LOWER POP VALUES IN THE EARLY GOING
TONIGHT. IT IS SOMEWHAT STARTLING THAN MANY LAND STATIONS ARE NOT
REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING...WHICH IS DUE TO THE DECEPTIVELY HIGH
OVERCAST STREWN ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC AT THE MOMENT WITH SCATTERED
LOWER CUMULUS.

INEVITABLE AND EVENTUAL...COASTAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AND ON
ITS WAY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MINIMUMS
LOOK GOOD AND NO CHANGES TO THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO THE UPPER
60 COASTAL INTERIOR AND 70-74 IMMEDIATE COAST...ICW...AND DUNES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BE SHEARING OUT AND MOVING OUT QUICKLY
AS WILL THE SURFACE LOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. I HAVE
MAINTAINED RESIDUAL MINIMAL POPS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS FOR A FEW
HOURS SUNDAY TO ADDRESS. LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOULD
SEE A RAPID CLEARING WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S WITH HIGHER
VALUES INLAND WHERE THERE WILL BE A LONGER PERIOD OF INSOLATION.
THE FORECAST THEN SHIFTS TO THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE MONDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT. GUIDANCE REMAINS UNIMPRESSED WITH CONVECTION REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM AND HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE
COOLER AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE THE BIGGER
STORY...AND GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING 55 IN THE MAV AND MET IN LBT FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THESE
MINIMAL VALUES BUT WE COULD SEE A LOT OF UPPER 50S INLAND AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RIGHT ON CUE THE AREA SEEMS TO BE IN FOR SOME
FALL-LIKE WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT WAS PROGGED YESTERDAY, BETTER SUPPRESSING FRONTAL
MOISTURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH FOR WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY IN A WEAKENING COOL ADVECTION REGIME.
SIMILARLY A COOL TUESDAY NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH MOST PLACES GETTING
DOWN INTO THE 50S. THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
HOLDS ITS GROUND AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER AS THE ANTICYCLONE JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE WEAKENS THERE WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY ONSHORE FLOW
OF MOISTURE. FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ASIDE, THERE WON`T BE MUCH
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT,
AND MAYBE HARD-PRESSED TO MAKE MUCH INLAND PROGRESS. THIS MAY CHANGE
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT
MORE CONVERGENT AND SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS ATOP THE
PERSISTENT WEDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...COASTAL LOW IS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND WILL  SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IN MVFR
CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST. CAN ALSO EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS OVER NIGHT. INLAND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS AT VFR AS CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD REMAINING TO THE
EAST.

AS THE LOW PULLS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A DRYING OUT AND
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND DECREASE SUN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR SUN THROUGH WED WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER
WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM SATURDAY...ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL NOON SUNDAY
FOR SEA RECOVERY TIME. SPEEDS IN THE 15-25 KT WITH WINDS NE
BACKING TO N LATE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
WITH DOMINANT PERIODS IN THE 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIOD RANGE TO
DOMINATE THE SIG SEAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE 0-20 NM
WATERS. THE OCEAN IS HAZARDOUS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST. A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY DAYS
END AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE IN
A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE WIND SHIFT AS THE FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO BE IN PLACE BY 0000 UTC TUESDAY THEN VEERING TO
NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AM. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM NEAR TEN KNOTS
LATE MONDAY TO 15-20 KNOTS TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL 3-5
FOOT SEAS EARLY SUNDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY WHEN
THEY WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FIRMLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF LATER INTO THE COOL
SEASON. THE GRADIENT ITSELF WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO YIELD SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS, BUT SEAS WILL ALSO BE ADVISORY-WORTHY AREA
WIDE (AMZ254 MAY HAVE A BIT OF TROUBLE DUE TO WAVE SHADOW OFF CAPE
FEAR). NOT ONLY WILL THE ADVISORY BE IN EFFECT FOR THE DURATION OF
THE PERIOD BUT ALSO LIKELY BEYOND AS THE WEDGE SHOWS LITTLE SIGN OF
WEAKENING OR MOVING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...BACON
AVIATION...HAWKINS










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