Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 232033
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
333 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
MILD COASTAL FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND AHEAD OF INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. CLEARING IS EXPECTED CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SEASONABLE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 333 PM TUESDAY...THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND ITS RAIN IS NOW
REACHING THE FORECAST AREA AND MOVING OVER A VERY SHALLOW AIRMASS AT
THE SURFACE. THE LOW CEILINGS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS STILL ARE ONGOING
OVER THE REGION AS THE COLD AIR DAMMING IS STILL IN PLACE. WITH
VISIBILITIES STILL LOW...WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM
AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE RAIN AND THE COASTAL FRONT
MOVE ONSHORE AND SCOURS OUT THE COOL MOIST AIR.

THE 12 UTC NAM SHOWS THE COASTAL FRONT JUMPING TO THE COAST AROUND
06 UTC THIS MAY STILL BE A BIT QUICK. MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS THAT
WE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE LAST FEW
WEEKS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE AREA COULD SEE UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN BY 12 UTC.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THIS EVENING WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S AT THE COAST AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND NEAR 60 AT THE
COAST BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE THIS PERIOD REMAINS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO KICK-OFF WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHOT AT A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WITH SHARP COLUMN DRYING INTO DAYBREAK THU.

TSTMS DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY ARE APT TO BE HINDERED BY AN
OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...AND
POTENTIALLY PRE-EXISTING RAIN-COOLED AIR. HEIGHT FALLS HOWEVER
MORE IN EARNEST WILL COMMENCE WEDNESDAY EVENING DIRECTLY AHEAD
OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. 21Z-05Z/4PM-MIDNIGHT REPRESENTS THE BEST
WINDOW FOR POTENTIALLY A SQUALLY LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS MOVING FROM SW TO NE RESPECTIVELY.

QPF ASSESSMENT AND BEST GUESS POINTS TO 1-2 INCHES STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH CLEARING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
ATYPICAL TEMP CURVES EXPECTED...AS TEMPERATURE RISE RISE FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE DAY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AT DAYBREAK CHRISTMAS WILL
ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES...FOLLOWED BY MORE TYPICAL NIGHT TIME
MINIMUMS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDE SPREAD 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM TUESDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH WILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE STRONG RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. OUR CWA WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE AXIS MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO NEAR BERMUDA
BY SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ALONG WITH THE
WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATER SUNDAY. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ATTENDANT
WITH THIS FRONT. AFTER A FEW DAYS OF SUNSHINE...ITS SHAPING UP TO BE
ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN.
I CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE POPS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TUESDAY WHEN THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. FORCING WILL BE COMPRISED
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND EMBEDDED JET STREAKS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.
DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE BEST PERIOD OF FORCING AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION SO THE MORE BROAD APPROACH WORKS BEST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS A RELATIVELY WARM COUPLE OF DAYS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH NUMBERS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...THE RETURN OF MOISTURE AND THE RETURN OF A VERY WEAK WEDGE
EQUALS MUCH COOLER READINGS WITH HIGHS AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AND
LOWS ABOVE AS THE DIURNAL RANGES BECOME MUTED WITH THE MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 20Z...WEDGE IN PLACE WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE CWA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT TRIES TO WAVE NORTH. THE NAM IS A BIT SLOWER AND THE
PREFERRED MODEL...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING.
LOOK FOR STEADY RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. WEDNESDAY...INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WITH A
REASONABLY STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING UP. THE SHOWERS COULD
BE FAIRLY HEAVY TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO OVER 1.5 INCHES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PRECIP LINGERING NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING TO THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN RETURNING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM TUESDAY...THE COASTAL FRONT IS WAVERING NEAR FRYING PAN
SHOALS AND IS JUST EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE RUNNING
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10
KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. ONCE THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES INLAND MOST
LIKELY THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY...THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WATER...SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME AN ISSUE AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE REISSUED
LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM TUESDAY...ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN
TO SETTLE AND THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
IN MODERATE WNW WIND. SEAS HEIGHTS TO PEAK AROUND MIDNIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 4-8 FEET AND HIGHEST OUTER PORTION WHERE MILDER
SSTS ARE LIKELY TO PROMOTE BETTER MIXING FROM STRONGER BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSS THE 0-20 NM WATERS. THE LARGEST
WAVES WILL BE TIED TO THE STRONG S WIND-WAVES WED/WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM TUESDAY...VERY LIGHT WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SEVERAL DIRECTION CHANGES. INITIALLY A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL GIVE WAY TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. AFTER A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...A WEAK WEDGE FRONT SHIFTS WINDS YET AGAIN
TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY. ALL SPEEDS SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW TEN KNOTS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY WHEN A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS DEVELOPS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE REFLECTIVE OF THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS WITH
GENERALLY 1-3 FEET TROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EST THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL/DRH



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