Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 281630
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1230 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND ON
TUESDAY. REDEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLE
HEAT WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS EDGING ESE IMPINGING
INTERIOR NE SC/SE NC LATE THIS MORNING WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
OFF TO A HEARTY START. MOUNTING SURFACE WARMING AND APPROACHING
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS COASTAL INTERIOR
LOCALS TO THE BEACHES. GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION WILL ADD A FOCUS MECHANISM TO THE MIX. ABSOLUTE
HUMIDITY IS DECREASING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS DIPPING
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S WEST OF I-95 PRESENTLY. RECENT SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE ANIMATIONS SHOW THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
HAS SHIFTED EAST OVER THE GULF STREAM AND LOCALLY COLUMN MOISTURE
IS DECREASING. THESE FACTORS WILL LIMIT THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SC WHERE THE MOST
HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE MAINLY WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS TODAY AND ASSOCIATED
ADIABATIC COMPRESSION WILL HELP SUSTAIN PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
AND A GOOD DIURNAL WARM UP...DESPITE THE POST FRONTAL REGIME. MID
TO UPPER 80S FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LOOKS REASONABLE.

RECENT WATER VAPOR TRENDS SHOW ENHANCEMENT OF COLUMN MOISTURE
STREAMING NE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS SO NO PLANS TO REMOVE MENTION
OF THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT. FRONT SLIPS OFF THE SC COAST PRIOR
TO EVENING. LOWS MONDAY MORNING COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY
WITH MIDDLE 60S INLAND TO THE LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST. WILL NEED TO
ASSESS FRONT BEHAVIOR OVERNIGHT FOR POSSIBLE POP ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WHICH THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
SUGGESTING WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK IS NOW LOOKING LIKE IT
WILL STALL JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. THIS IS UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE
THE SPRING-LIKE DRYING THAT WAS FORECAST IS NOW LOOKING MUCH LESS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. THE REASON FOR THIS IS
BOTH DUE TO THE VERY WARM WATER TEMPS IN PLACE OVER THE
WATER...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOW PROGGED TO REMAIN
WEST OF THIS AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY AND
WOBBLE IN THE VICINITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WHILE THIS FRONT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN...THE MID LEVELS DO DRY OUT
CONSIDERABLY...SO CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

EVEN SO...THERE COULD BE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT GRADIENT
MONDAY...AND IT WILL LIKELY FEEL REFRESHING INLAND...BUT STILL
PRETTY HUMID ALONG THE COAST. MOISTURE RETURN WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
AGAIN TUESDAY SO DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
ONCE AGAIN. WITH CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE THERMAL RIDGE
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY...TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 90S...WITH
TUESDAY THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES...1-2 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70 MONDAY NIGHT...AND A BIT
WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SUMMER LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH SEASONABLE-TO-SLIGHTLY-ABOVE TEMPERATURES BUT
HIGHER THAN CLIMO PRECIP CHANGES. BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURE...WHILE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
BE THE RULE ALOFT. THIS TROUGH WILL BE RATHER FLAT...BUT WILL KEEP
HEIGHTS ALOFT JUST LOW ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTN/EVE IN A TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION. WITH THE
SLIGHTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS...THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL
BECOME ACTIVE AS THE WARM TEMPS AND HIGH HUMIDITY CREATE AMPLE
INSTABILITY...AND WILL CARRY CHC TO HIGH CHC POP EACH AFTN. AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LIFT AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS
TRENDS TOWARDS ZONAL...AND FIRST GLIMPSE AT THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY
LOOKS HOT WITH ISOLATED TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUMP UP AGAINST THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
THUNDER IS NOT OUT  OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...BUT REMOTELY SO.
MAINLY A WEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST WITH
MORE OF A WEST SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. DIMINISHING SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS
EVENING WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED. THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
COULD SEE AN MVFR CEILING AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...SW-W WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON AND 10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT TONIGHT. THE ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST INLAND FROM THE
WATERS MONDAY AND THEN WASH OUT/LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY. BY LATE
MONDAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REASSERT
ITSELF AND BE THE CONTROLLING FEATURE ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS LEAVES
SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AT 10-15 KTS MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY...RISING TO 15-20 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A LOW-
AMPLITUDE SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST WITHIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY BY A SW WIND CHOP...WITH SEAS OF 2-
4 FT EXPECTED MONDAY...RISING TO 3-5 FT TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WHILE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
SHARPENS EACH AFTN INLAND FROM THE WATERS. THIS WILL LEAVE SW
WINDS EACH DAY...WITH A PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT OCCURRING TO
DRIVE WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15-20 KTS EACH EVENING...WHILE OTHERWISE
MAINTAINING A 10-15 KT SPEED. SEAS WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL BE 3-4
FT MOST OF THE TIME...BUT A FEW 5 FTERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE 20
NM BOUNDARY EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL/8


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