Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 251738
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
138 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BELOW FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A SLOW WARMUP WILL FOLLOW
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST SAT VIS IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES MANY
HOLES/CRACKS IN THE STRATOCU AND ALTOCU OVERCAST. AS A
RESULT...WILL BECOME MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR THIS AFTERNOONS SKIES.
WITH THE ADDITIONAL INSOLATION...HAVE TWEAKED THIS AFTN MAX TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES UPWARDS WITH 70S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA.
AS FOR POPS...HAVE LOWERED THEM CONSIDERABLY BY ATLEAST 1 TO 2
CATEGORIES. THIS BASED ON CURRENT MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS AND THE LACK
OF ORGANIZED OVERRUNNING PCPN. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
ONSHORE AND INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE COASTAL TROF/FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A BROAD SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL AT THE MID
LEVELS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND WARM AS THE DEEP
ATLANTIC FLOW IN PLACE GETS SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND THE FRONT
RESIDES WELL TO THE WEST. POPS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT AND HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE
POWERFUL TROUGH. THE POPS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
REALLY CANT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AS A POWERFUL VORT
SWINGS ACROSS. ITS WORTH TAKING A LOOK AT THERMAL PROFILES FOR
THIS TIME AND IT APPEARS IT WILL BE JUST A LITTLE TOO WARM AT THE
SURFACE FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION AND THE WINDOW IS VERY NARROW
ANYWAY. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED WITH
A VERY WARM THURSDAY BACKING OFF CONSIDERABLY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S RATHER QUICKLY LEAVING IN ITS WAKE A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. AT
THE SURFACE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE
APPALACHIANS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING DURING THIS TIME...THE PLACEMENT
OF THE HIGH WILL DICTATE TEMPERATURES MOST NOTABLY FOR SUNDAY
MORNING. THE MEX HAS COME IN A LITTLE WARMER WITH 31 IN WILMINGTON
AND 27 IN LUMBERTON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS NOW WITH THIS SCENARIO AND A FREEZE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY. BEYOND THIS A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WHICH WARMS THINGS UP
SOMEWHAT WITH A DRY BACKDOOR FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY PUT A HALT ON THE WARMUP. DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A STRONG NE-E FLOW HAS SHOVED MVFR CIGS WEST OF
KFLO/KLBT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AT 18Z.
STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS FOR THE MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AT KFLO/KLBT... WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KFLO. COASTAL
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 00Z WITH A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS MAINLY AFTER 21Z. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY AT KFLO/KLBT.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS AND
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR
LATE THIS EVENING AT KFLO/KLBT AND OVERNIGHT AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE WITH SHOWERS MAINLY
COASTAL TERMINALS. INLAND TERMINALS BECOMING VFR DURING THE
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR THURS. FRI RAIN/IFR. SAT
MVFR/SHOWERS EARLY BECOMING VFR. VFR SUN/MON WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST BUOY READINGS INDICATE THE
COASTAL FRONT/TROF RESIDES JUST OFFSHORE AND PARALLEL TO THE ILM
CWA COASTLINE. MODELS CONTINUE WITH MOVING THIS COASTAL
FRONT/TROF ONSHORE THIS EVENING...AND INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. LOOK FOR A VEERING WIND DIRECTION FROM EASTERLY TO SE-SSE
AFTER ITS PASSAGE...WITH SPEEDS 10 TO AROUND 15 KT. HAVE CUT DOWN
THE POPS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT BASED
ON LATEST RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS...AND ALSO THE FACT THAT WE ARE
BASICALLY DEALING WITH WEAK DYNAMICS THAT IS ABLE TO PRODUCE
PCPN. SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE TODAY...BUILDING TO
3 TOO 5 FT TONIGHT INTO THU. DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 6 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WIND FIELDS SEEM UNUSUALLY WEAK FOR A DYNAMIC
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS DURING THE PERIOD. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS...MOSTLY LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE
RANGE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST. I SUPPOSE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS MORE
GRADUAL LIMITING MODELS DEPICTION OF THE WINDS AND THE FACT THE CORE
OF COLD AIR IS TO THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE CONFINED
TO A 15-20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 FEET THURSDAY
POSSIBLY ECLIPSING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BRIEFLY BEFORE THE OFFSHORE
FLOW TRIMS BACK HEIGHTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST SATURDAY WITH 15-20 KNOTS. VALUES BACK OFF
SUNDAY TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/MRR



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