Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS62 KILM 211007
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
607 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CHILLY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EDGES ESE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A SUNNY START WILL
GREET A QUIET AND SEASONABLE MORNING WITH MODERATE EARLY MORNING
DEW AND PATCHES OF MIST. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO COMMUTES ARE
EXPECTED NOR WIDESPREAD REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES. STRONG WARMING
TODAY WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF A LATE
SEPTEMBER FEEL. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST INTO THE
DAYBREAK UPDATES...AND THE PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE MOVING NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WAS TRIPPING OFF CONVECTION ALONG THE SC COAST AROUND
CHARLESTON TO OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR TO THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS
ACTION BORN OF DYNAMICS ALOFT WAS MOVING ENE ALONG MID-LEVEL FLOW.
SUBSIDENT DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS
EXITING IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING CLEARING. STRONG
WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH A TRIFECTA CONTRIBUTION OF
DIURNAL...ADIABATIC...AND ADVECTION WARMTH TODAY. STRAYED NOT TOO
FAR FROM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT OPTED FOR THE
UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE COAST...SINCE MODELS TOO OFTEN
UNDER-ESTIMATE THE WARMING ADDED FROM DOWN-SLOPE COMPRESSION. WITH
THIS IN MIND..A 78-82 DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AND
EVEN THE COASTAL INTERIOR TODAY...SINCE IT APPEARS THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE WILL BE HELD AT SEA WITH W-WSW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
MAXIMUM OF DIURNAL WARMING.

DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND TURN WINDS FROM THE
NORTH BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION
TO DEEP NNW FLOW AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN FEEL. MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED FIRST LIGHT
WELL INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT REGION AFT 9Z. BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE WARMER WATERS. VFR TODAY WITH
W-WNW WINDS 5-9 KT. DRY COLD FRONT AFT 02Z WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
NNW-W AND INCREASE TO 8-G14KT AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 421 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND- SEAS AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/SHK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.