Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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448
FXUS62 KILM 011131
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
631 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
GULF COAST AND THEN BE REINFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 AM Thursday...Drier air was punching into our inland
zones early this morning and this drier air will overspread the
coast in the wake of a cold front. This drier air was quickly chasing
the last of the dwindling showers offshore. Much cooler air
will not filter into the area until the passage of a trough this
eve.

Skies have cleared along and west of Interstate 95 and this
clearing will quickly overtake the coastal communities through
mid morning.

High pressure along the Gulf Coast states will build into the area
tonight. Skies will be clear.

Highs this afternoon will be in the mid and upper 60s to near 70 at
the coast. Lows tonight will be in the mid and upper 30s to around
40 at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...High pressure will be reinforced from
the NW Friday night into Saturday. The forecast area will remain
under the influence of high pressure through the period with a
good deal of sunshine. A digging southern stream system will be
organizing across the southern plains and western Gulf states,
but its impacts will remain to our west and southwest through
Saturday night.

It will be seasonably cool with highs in the mid 50s to lower
60s, with Saturday being the cooler of the two days. Lows will
be in the mid and upper 30s Friday night. Clouds may begin to
become more prevalent overnight Saturday, so will forecast lows
in the upper 30s to lower 40s that night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...Models indicate split flow in the mid-
upper levels thru early Wed. From the Carolinas southward, this
area will be under the influence of sw to wsw upper air flow
coming from the slowly eastward moving Mexican cutoff/closed
upper Low that will push into southern TX Mon evening. Some
minor timing issues there-after, but for the most part, models
open this upper low into a trof, and further weakens it as it
lifts northeast into and thru a longwave ridge aligned over the
East Coast of the U.S. late Tuesday. It moves, underneath the
longwave ridge, to off the Mid-atlantic states Wed. Overall,
this pattern suggests more clouds and a slight chance for pcpn
initially, then transitions to a possible damming scenario on
Mon thru early Wed with a coastal front/trof lurking just off
the immediate coast. At this point in time, models do not bring
the coastal front/trof onshore. Thus, overall temps this period
will remain at or slightly below climo with no big warm-up given
this scenario playing out. Unless, the coastal front moves
onshore, then a temperature forecast bust will definitely occur.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 12Z...ILM may see a shower or two over the next hour or
so, otherwise expect VFR conditions at all locations through the
forecast period. Front is currently along the coast with winds
at the coastal terminals expected to shift to the west by TAF
valid time. Skies will scatter along the coast by mid morning
while winds will continue to rotate clockwise to the northwest
by afternoon. Light winds tonight with high pressure building
in.

Extended outlook...Expect mainly VFR. Except, clouds and pcpn
will return at the end of this period with some MVFR/IFR
conditions possible late Sunday thru Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 AM Thursday...The wind direction will shift from SW
to W with the passage of a cold front this morning. The passage
of a trough this eve will shift winds to the NW and then N
overnight. High pressure will build into the area tonight. The
highest wind speeds will be early in the day ahead of the front,
up to 15 to 20 kt. Wind speeds will be around 15 kt later this
morning and through tonight. Seas will subside sharply through
the period. Seas will be 5 to 7 ft this morning and up to 3 to 5
ft this afternoon and 2 to 4 ft tonight.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...High pressure will be the main influence
across the waters. The wind direction will remain from the NW or N
through the period, trending to the NE toward sunrise Sunday. Wind
speeds will be 10 to 15 kt Friday, but as the pressure gradient
briefly tightens in response to reinforcing high pressure from the
northwest, wind speeds will trend higher, 15 to 20 kt Friday night
into Saturday morning before returning to 10 to 15 kt Saturday
afternoon and night. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft with perhaps some 4 ft
seas late Friday night into Saturday for portions of the outermost
waters.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...For this 2 day period, winds and seas
will overall be in a diminishing/subsiding trend respectively
from Sunday into the 1st half of Monday.

For the 2nd half of Monday, models do want to instigate a
damming scenario with sfc high ridging south-southwest across
the Central Carolinas from the NE states. And the development
of a coastal front/trof just offshore from the ILM CWA coasts.
At this point, models bring the front/trof into the local waters
late Monday into Tuesday, but not onshore and inland.
Nevertheless, this will make forecasting wind directions a hair
puller for the latter end of this period.

The sfc pg will start out loose but tighten-some at the end of
this period. Thus results in wind speeds increasing especially
on the offshore side of the coastal front late Mon into Tue.
Significant seas will mainly be dominated and a function of wind
driven waves, especially at the end of this period. Eventhough,
latest Wavewatch3 shows SCA thresholds being met Monday night,
will hold off given the too many ifs that could occur preventing
this SCA possibility.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ254-
     256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...DL



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