Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 011731
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1231 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS
A COOL SURFACE AIRMASS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY
AND SET UP A COOL TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL WARM UP INTO THE 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. COOL WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM SUNDAY...THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN HAS PASSED AND THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 10AM: ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WITHIN THE
ADVISORY ARE NOT LIKELY TO SEE FREEZING RAIN THERE ARE A FEW
LOCATIONS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS BANK AND THE LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY UNTIL 11AM. ISENTROPIC
LIFT CONTINUES TODAY AS WARM MOIST AIR SPREADS NORTH OVER THE
SURFACE WEDGE. SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOES SHOW LIFT
WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE IS PUSHED OFF THE COAST BY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE LEFT BEHIND BUBBLE HIGH OVER GA/SC WILL
BACK SURFACE FLOW TO WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE LOSS OF FORCING WILL BRING ABOUT
AN END TO PRECIP BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW NEAR SATURATION
BELOW 1500 FT SO LOW CLOUD AND POSSIBLY MIST/SPRINKLES WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT. ONLY PLAN SMALL TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MORNING
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MONDAY`S HIGHS MAY END UP CLOSE TO CLIMO JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS. SO WHILE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE LITTLE. THAT MAY CHANGE MONDAY
NIGHT AS MOISTURE ALOFT BEGINS TO OVERRUN THE SURFACE WEDGE BROUGHT
ABOUT BY THE FROPA. GENERALLY ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND LIKELY
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN ZONES. THESE RAINFALL CHANGES SHOULD OOZE
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS OVER THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. SHOULD RAIN CONTINUE TO RE-ENFORCE THE WEDGE THEN A
COOL DAY IS ON TAP AND STATISTICAL OUTPUT IS FAIRLY SUPPORTIVE OF
SUCH. BUT RAW MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE WEDGE BREAKING DOWN AND IT
SEEMS THAT TEMP DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO MAY BE A BIT SMALLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST THE AREA
HAS EXPERIENCED IN SOME TIME AS MANY LOCATIONS SAVE FOR BEACHES WARM
INTO THE LOW 70S DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LOW
AND CONFINED TO NWRN ZONES WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THAT
COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS
THE BAROCLINICITY LAGGING BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TAKE A BIG HIT WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY ONCE AGAIN MIRED IN THE 40S. DID NOT GO QUITE AS COLD AS
MOS GUIDANCE AS THAT WOULD BE TOO LARGE A CHANGE AND PRONE TO FLIP
FLOPPING BETWEEN VARIOUS GUIDANCE RUNS. WEAK CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE
SOME MOISTURE MAY SLOSH BACK ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACCORDING TO
THE EC. GFS MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST IN KEEPING MOISTURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND BRINGING SOME SUN LOCALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. EITHER
SOLUTION FAVORS TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO...THE GFS WOULD IMPLY LARGER
DEVIATIONS AT NIGHT THAN THE CLOUDIER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MVFR LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WITH
IFR/LIFR LIKELY AT THE INLAND INLAND TERMINALS. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE TEMPO PERIODS OF
IFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS MID AFTERNOON ON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND 00Z AT THE INLAND TERMINALS AND LATE
EVENING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. AS THE RAIN ENDS THERE WILL BE
SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
IN. BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS FEEL FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH
OVERNIGHT. MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVERNIGHT
COASTAL TERMINALS WITH IFR INLAND TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AFTER SUNRISE EXPECT A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR LATE MON. PERIODS OF MVFR/SHOWERS
TUE/WED. RAIN/IFR THUR. VFR DEVELOPING FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SUNDAY...SEAS WITHIN ALL ZONES HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS AS OF 10 AM AND SCA HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
COASTAL TROUGH HAS HELPED WEAKEN THE GRADIENT AS HAS THE SLOW
EASTWARD RETREAT OF THE WEDGING HIGH. WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW 10 TO 15 KT WINDS THIS MORNING TO DROP UNDER 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SLOW SEAS CONTINUE TRENDING DOWN WITH 3 TO 5
FT TODAY DECREASING TO 2 TO 4 FT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS OFFSHORE/NWRLY WINDS
THAT WILL REMAIN MODERATELY LIGHT EARLY ON. AS THE DAY WEARS ON HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL VEER THE FLOW TO
MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND ADD A FEW KNOTS OF WIND SPEED AND PERHAPS A
FOOT TO OFFSHORE DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. EVEN SO NO FLAGS OR HEADLINES
ANTICIPATED. BY TUESDAY THE PARENT HIGH WILL HAVE PROGRESSED A BIT
EASTWARD OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS IS MAINTAINED INTO
THE CAROLINAS. COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE
ONSHORE POSSIBLY GRABBING SOME ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT SEAS AND
DRAGGING THEM INTO THE VERY OUTER REACHES OF SOME OF THE FORECAST
ZONES.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...THE APPROACH OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A TIGHTENED LOW LEVEL JET ON WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE WARM AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH
OF THIS WIND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE AS COOLER SSTS INHIBIT VERTICAL
MIXING OVER THE SHELF WATERS. HAVE BEEN CARRYING 6 FT SEAS BUT
STARTING TO THINK THIS MAY BE A TAD OVERDONE AND ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS A LITTLE HARD-PRESSED TO MATERIALIZE. GIVEN IT BEING FAR
OUT IN TIME HOWEVER DID NOT MAKE ANY REAL CHANGES. BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR SHOULD POUR INTO THE
REGION. THIS SEEMS LIKE A BETTER TIME FRAME FOR WINDS AND/OR SEAS TO
SATISFY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR









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