Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 220822
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
422 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY STALLING
OVER THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY. THERE IS
A HIGH RISK THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MORE HEAVY
RAIN TODAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING ON WET TO SATURATED
SOILS. ALSO...SEVERAL CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH AND FAST
AND WILL NOT BE READILY CAPABLE OF ACCOMMODATING ADDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF ALONG THE COAST
THIS MORNING AND THEN RETROGRADE INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST. MEANTIME AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO EXPAND WESTWARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG OUR COAST
WILL INCREASE THE LIFT AND CONVERGENCE WHILE HELPING TO DRAW THE
DEEPER OFFSHORE MOISTURE INLAND. MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEARING OR TOPPING 2.25 INCHES. THIS IS AS HIGH OR HIGHER
THAN ON MONDAY. STORM MOTIONS ARE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...GENERALLY 10
KT OR LESS. THE FLOOD RISK WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN FELL ON MON. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION THAT TRAINS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING IN EXCESS OF 2 OR 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. COMMUNITIES THAT RECEIVE THIS AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING. LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AND THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OF URBAN AREAS.
THE  MOST VULNERABLE AREAS WILL BE WHERE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FELL ON
MON.

OTHERWISE...LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG WILL AT TIMES REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO A MILE OR LESS.

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD AGAIN HOLD HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY AND AS COOL AS THE LOWER
80S WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST PERSISTENT. RAIN COOLED AREAS WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE 70S AND MAY REMAIN THERE UNTIL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE DECLINE IN
THE EVE WITH A TENDENCY TO SHIFT OR REDEVELOP OFFSHORE...WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE A LULL IN WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WED AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY AND A DEEP SW FLOW
WILL VEER BECOMING MORE WESTERLY ALLOWING FOR SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST OVER THE
WATERS WHERE PCP WATER VALUES WILL BE MAXED OUT AROUND 2.3 INCHES
WED AFTN. EXPECT MORE LOCALIZED CONVECTION ON WED ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTN AND THE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND HELP
STORMS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE WATERS.

BY THURS FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AS COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS LOOK
FASTER WITH THE DIGGING MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY THURS NIGHT. THE DAY SHOULD
START OUT DRIER WITH PCP WATER VALUES DOWN CLOSER TO 1.5 INCHES.
NAM AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF FRONT SHIFTING IT SOUTH OF AREA BY FRI MORNING
WHILE THE GFS HANGS IT UP RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS THE H5 TROUGH
LIFTS NORTH. EITHER WAY...SHOULD SEE STRONGER AND MORE NUMEROUS
SHWRS/TSTMS ON THURS AHEAD OF FRONT INLAND INITIALLY AND THEN
SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW
FAST THIS SYSTEM MOVES.

TEMPS WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD REACHING NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH MID WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS IN
ON WED. TEMPS MAY LOWER THURS AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN LOWERING H5
HEIGHTS AND PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND PCP AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID
70S...IN A CLOUDIER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MAY BE HUNG UP RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST FRI MORNING BUT NAM WANTS TO PUSH IT SOUTH AND EAST OF AREA
LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THE BOUNDARY
WILL GET TOO FAR SOUTH AS H5 TROUGH LIFTS NORTH LEAVING A VERY
BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MAINTAINING MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT AND NOT GIVING MUCH OF PUSH TO
THE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST
ON FRI. DEEP SW FLOW WILL KEEP A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS
OVER THE AREA LEAVING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES COME MONDAY
PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN INCREASED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LATER
ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST
LEAVING A FLOW RUNNING MORE PARALLEL TO FRONT AND NOT GIVING IT
TOO STRONG OF A PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THEREFORE MAY NOT SEE TOO
MUCH OF AN AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND FRONT.

OVERALL EXPECT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
EARLY FRI AND AGAIN MON AFTN INTO EARLY TUES...BUT EXPECT MORE
TYPICAL DIURNAL TYPE SHWR ACTIVITY MOST DAYS. SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD
MAKE IT INTO INLAND AREAS ON FRI AND ON TUES BEHIND FRONTS...BUT
WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST OF FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BASICALLY BE ABOVE CLIMO WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S AND DAY
TIME HIGHS INTO THE 90S MOST DAYS WITH LOWER TEMPS EXPECTED. AS
TROUGH DIGS DOWN THURS INTO FRI AND AGAIN MON INTO TUES MAY SEE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN LOWERED H5 HEIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT IFR CIGS AT KFLO/KLBT AND MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE SATURATED COLUMN AND ABUNDANT
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP VSBYS FROM DROPPING BELOW MVFR...BUT
IFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE OUR INLAND TERMINALS. THE HRRR
SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH
NEARING KILM/KCRE/KMYR AROUND DAYBREAK. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR THESE
SITES THROUGH LATE MORNING...WHEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KTS AS THE TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR/TEMPO IFR IN CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER 00Z
WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME STRAY SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH TEMPO
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
CLOSE OFF AND RETROGRADE INLAND AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS
TO EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. THE DIRECTION
WILL BE SSE TO S TODAY...VEERING TO SW TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS
A RESULT OF THE INCREASING WINDS. A 6 TO 8 SECOND SE SWELL WILL
COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING WIND ENERGY TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 3 TO 4
FT WITH 5 FT SEAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A S-SW RETURN FLOW UP TO 15 KTS. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURS WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY MAKING IT UP TO 20 KTS IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW. SEAS
2 TO 4 FT ON WED INTO THURS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 5 FT BY LATE
THURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BUT WNA MODEL REMAINS CONSISTENT KEEPING
SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT MAY
BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT REACHES INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY
FRI BUT WILL MOST LIKELY STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER INLAND CAROLINAS
OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TO MAINTAIN A SW FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH
WEAKENING AS GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT EARLY
FRI WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH LATE FRI INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/BJR







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