Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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081
FXUS62 KILM 180734
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
334 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
STALL...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...AT THIS MOMENT THE 850MB-700MB DRY LAYER IS
SLOWLY ERODING AND GIVING WAY TO AN INFUSION OF HIGHER ABSOLUTE
HUMIDITY FROM THE NW. THIS IS SHOWN WELL IN TIME-HGHT DEPICTIONS AND
APPEARS TO BE CONFIRMED IN RECENT SATELLITE DATA. THE UPTICK IN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL HEATING TODAY WILL
LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO AFTERNOON. SEVERAL
PERTURBATIONS RIDING ACROSS THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE APPEAR
POISED TO OFFER WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AS WELL. THESE WEAK IMPULSES ARE
CURRENTLY AIDING IS LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NC AND
VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL AID IN BOOSTING SURFACED BASED CAPES WITH
MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER MOST OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE BEACHES
WITH MAXIMUMS AROUND 90 LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95. ALTHOUGH
DIURNAL COOLING INTO TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH CONVECTIVE TRENDS...A
FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED TSTMS COULD LINGER THROUGH EVENING AS TD
VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED WITH PULSES OF UPPER SUPPORT...FAVORED
ACROSS NC. ANOTHER MILD ONE TONIGHT WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
WITH NOCTURNAL CLOUDS EXPECTED AND MODERATE WSW LOW-LVL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL FORCING...A COLD FRONT AND OR PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL TEAM UP TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO THE EVENING. I HAVE
MAINTAINED THE GOOD CHANCE POPS BASICALLY CWA WIDE. THE MARINE LAYER
MAY LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST BUT WITH AT LEAST SOME
MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND FAVORABLE TIMING...THE COAST HAS A FIGHTING
CHANCE. FOR WEDNESDAY THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT BRIEFLY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING FROM NEAR TWO INCHES TUESDAY TO
ABOUT 1.3 INCHES. MEAGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD KEEP SEVERE
POTENTIAL LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME CHANGES FOR
THURSDAY...AND HAVE BEEN FOR A FEW CYCLES NOW. MOISTURE APPEARS TO
RECOVER QUICKLY AFTER A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY. THIS
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL SUPPORT...WARRANTS AN INCREASE IN POPS
FROM SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE. A MORE FORMIDABLE FRONT...AT LEAST AT
THIS POINT APPEARS TO DRY THINGS OUT FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OUT WEST AND REMAINS OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS LOOKING PLEASANT
AND ESSENTIALLY SPOT ON CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.



&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH TODAY AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN INCREASES
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AFTER DAYBREAK...SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST- SOUTHWEST...INCREASING TO AOB 12
KTS...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY
INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR OUT SIDE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...DECENT MARINE CONDITIONS WITH 2-3 FOOT SEAS
TODAY AND MODERATE SW WINDS OF 15 KT...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH. SEAS
COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 2 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND 1-2 FOOT SHORT
PERIOD WIND-WAVES...HIGHEST AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO CAUTION OR
ADVISORY FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED BUT A BUMPY 3 FT CAN BE EXPECTED
GIVEN OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER INSHORE WATERS AS STORM MOTION FROM LAND TO WATER WILL
PREVAIL.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH IS IN PLACE AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AS THESE FEATURES MOVE
ACROSS WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF SURGE OF 10-15 KNOTS AS
WELL. THE PRESSURE PATTERN QUICKLY BECOMES DIFFUSE AS WINDS TURN TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY DAYS END WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE 1-3 FEET WITH THE
LATEST SWAN SHOWING SOME FOUR FOOTERS JUST OUTSIDE THE 20KM RANGE
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...A MODEST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS
THE PRESSURE PATTERN WEAKENS. IN FACT THE SEA BREEZE WILL MOST
LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WINDS. SAME STORY FOR FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST MAY OCCUR LATE AS WHAT APPEARS TO
BE A STRONGER FRONT AS OPPOSED TO WEDNESDAYS MOVES ACROSS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS REMAIN UNREMARKABLE WITH 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/SGL



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