Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 241137

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
737 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

A ridge of high pressure will expand across the Carolinas bringing
increasingly hot and humid conditions through the end of the weekend
and much of next week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible each afternoon, and heat advisories will likely be needed
each day beginning Sunday. Chance of thunderstorms should increase
heading into next weekend as ridge aloft begins to weaken.


As of 615 AM Sunday...No changes to the forecast with the latest
update. Previous discussion follows:

A massive and very dry ridge building aloft will contribute to
potentially dangerous levels of heat this afternoon. At the
surface the Bermuda high will continue to dominate, bringing a
very moist and warm south to southwesterly flow to the region for
today and tonight. Temperatures will once again climb above
normal, with highs in the mid 90s most locations and in the lower
90s at the beaches. With dewpoints in the mid 70s we can expect
heat indices this afternoon to range right around 105F. A Heat
Advisory thus remains in place area-wide. A lack of both moisture
aloft and significantly strong forcing will greatly limit coverage
of convection today. For this afternoon and early evening the best
we we can expect is isolated sea-breeze forced convection
primarily focused along the coastal counties.


As of 330 AM Sunday...A hot and humid airmass will continue to
dominate the eastern Carolinas as a broad, flat ridge prevails
aloft and the Bermuda high persists at the surface. A thermal
trough will strengthen each afternoon over the central Carolinas.
Both days will feature afternoon heat index values exceeding 100F,
and it is possible that heat advisories will be issued for parts
of the forecast area on both days. Much like on Sunday, very dry
air aloft and lack of strong forcing will limit convective
coverage to isolated storms each day, primarily along the sea
breeze front and any other boundries that happen by. Although will
be capping pops on Tuesday to slight chance, we may see more wider
coverage of convection on Tuesday night as slightly deeper
moisture may be advecting in.


AS OF 330 AM Sunday...Hot weather will continue as ridge holds
over the Carolinas through the mid to upper levels. Latest model
runs do not weaken the ridge until we head into next weekend when
upper trough finally pushes a cold front toward the area. Although
heights drop slightly, do not expect much change in air mass with
temps reaching into the mid 90s most days with dewpoint temps
holding in the mid 70s most places. Expect heat advisories to be
issued through at least Thurs.

As the atlantic ridge builds westward through mid week, a deeper
westerly component to the wind will aid in greater downsloping
and warmer temps, but may also help to steer clouds and upstream
convection toward the area, as well as, aid in convergence closer
to the coast. Overall expect mid levels to remain dry and warm with
limited potential for convection through Fri. Will keep mainly
isolated to sct shwrs/tstms each aftn associated with sea breeze
boundary and other localized boundaries, and along the piedmont
trough inland. Gradient will tighten heading into Friday with
stronger and gustier SW winds as ridge finally begins to break
down and cold front gets a push closer to the area. Expect
convection to kick up a notch on Saturday as mid to upper trough
digs down pushing a cold front into the Carolinas.


As of 06Z...A ridge of high pressure extends over the Carolinas at
the surface. A few showers just off the coast early this morning
should dissipate as the morning progresses. Expect light SW-WSW
winds to back to the S-SSW as the morning progresses, highest wind
speeds 10-15kt at the coastal terminals. Convection could develop
along the sea breeze boundary and along the piedmont trough inland,
but with dry air in the mid-levels and lack of an upper impulse do
not expect support for more than isolated convection. Have deleted
VCTS from TAFs attm.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon convection
Tuesday through Thursday may create periods of MVFR/IFR.
Otherwise expect VFR.


As of 615 AM Sunday...No changes to the forecast with the latest
update. Previous discussion follows:

There will be little change over the waters through the near
term. The Bermuda High over the western Atlantic will keep winds
from the S to SW at 10 to 15 kts, with seas of around 2 ft today
and tonight. Winds will be mainly southerly this afternoon near
shore and gusty as the afternoon sea-breeze circulation sets up.

As of 330 AM Sunday...High pressure over the western Atlantic
will continue to keep winds from the S to SW at 10 to 15 kts
through the period, with seas of around 2 ft. Expect gusts up
around 20 kts each afternoon.


SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.


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