Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 230233
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
933 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT... BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW DURING SUNDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST
LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...SOME VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES STILL
EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITH THE NORTHERN AREAS SEEING
LOW TO MID 40S AND THE SOUTHERN AREAS WELL INTO THE 50S. OVERALL
NO COMPELLING REASON TO EDIT OVERNIGHT LOWS. CLOUD COVER TRENDS
REMAIN ON TRACK. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...DYNAMIC FORECAST PERIOD AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EVOLVES ALONG THE GULF COAST AND RIDES
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
POSES A VARIETY OF CHALLENGES RANGING FROM A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER ALONG THE COAST...TO A POSSIBLE LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES
INLAND TO THE BEACHES GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE COASTAL FRONT...AND
THE AMOUNT/DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL.

STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND UVVS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DURING FRIDAY SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL POPS LATER IN
THE DAY AND THE EVENING. THE COASTAL FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR THE COAST
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS PROJECTED TO BE NEAR AN IMPRESSIVE 1.5 INCHES. REGARDING
SEVERE WEATHER...THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK RETAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
COASTAL SECTIONS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE NON-EXISTENT BUT
ENOUGH WIND SHEAR WORTHY OF KEEPING AN EYE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW MIGRATES BY. IF THE LOW TRACKS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THEN THERE
MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE COAST.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...WITH THE
STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST.

QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST WITH THE AMOUNTS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1 INCH INLAND TO 2 INCHES AT THE COAST.
RAINFALL CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
EXITS FARTHER TO THE N-NE AND DOWN-SLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES AS THE LOW
MOVES BY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW SATURDAY AS THE DRYING OCCURS. LOWS BACK INTO THE 30S BY
SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM WHILE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE COLUMN BRINGS A
DRY WESTERLY WIND. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. AS THIS MOISTURE-DEPRIVED CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR SUCCESSIVELY COLDER PUSHES OF AIR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. FORTUNATELY WE DO NOT GET INTO ARCTIC AIR BUT TEMPS
BELOW CLIMO NONETHELESS. PERHAPS NOTEWORTHY ARE THE MONDAY DAY AND
THE TUESDAY NIGHT COOL SURGE WHICH WILL BOTH BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DECENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. THE FORMER WRINGS OUT SOME MINOR QPF
OVER CAPE FEAR AND POINTS NORTH. USUALLY ITS PREFERABLE TO HAVE SUCH
VORT CENTERS CUTTING TO YOUR SOUTH FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIP CHANCES SO
WILL CAP AT SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME. THE CHILLY SURFACE HIGH MAY
INCH JUST ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR SLIGHT MODERATION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR ON FRI AS GULF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS. THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KT WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 10 KT BY DAYBREAK. THE COLUMN MOISTENS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH -RA AND SCT/BKN MVFR STRATOCU DEVELOPING LATE
MORNING AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND AROUND MIDDAY AT KILM/KLBT. AS
THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS FL/GA IN THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT RA/+RA TO LOWER
CIGS TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS...RIGHT AROUND THE 1000 FT
THRESHOLD. ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS 10-20 KT WILL DEVELOP
AT ALL TERMINALS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION.

A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ALONG THE
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO KILM/KCRE/KMYR IF IT PUSHES ONSHORE. BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
LOW...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR CIGS SAT MORNING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR BY SAT EVENING. VFR ON SUN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MON WITH
A COLD FRONT. VFR ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
WATERS AS JMPN7 IS REPORTING SEVEN KNOTS AND OCPN7 FIVE KNOTS.
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS BY MORNING. SEAS ARE
CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET AND WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS TO 2-5 FEET BY
THE MORNING HOURS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING
FRIDAY AND ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. OPTED TO
RAISE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AS A RESULT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE THE
WIND...AND DURING FRIDAY THE FETCH WILL BE DIRECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. WAVEWATCH OUTPUT APPEARED TO BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH
SIDE...REGARDLESS SEAS STILL INCREASE TO 7 TO 9 FT NEAR THE OUTER
CAPE FEAR WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDING. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL EXIST AS WELL AS THE
LOW MOVES BY THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
AND VERY ROUGH SEA STATE NEAR ANY OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BACK IN DIRECTION ON
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STORM ITSELF PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH ON
MONDAY BUT THE COOL SURGE IT BRINGS COULD RAISE WINDS CLOSE TO SCEC
HEADLINE THRESHOLDS. MEANWHILE THE CONTINUATION OF OFFSHORE FLOW
KEEPS THE LARGEST SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE 20NM ZONES. ADDITIONAL VEERING
ON TUESDAY AS STEP-WISE COOL AIR PUSHES ENSUE BUT OVERALL WINDS
APPEAR TO BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR






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