Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 270236
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1036 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE MID WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS NEAR THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THESE SHOWERS HAVE
NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT ONSHORE AS THEY HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY PUSH WESTWARD AND INTO THE DRIER AIR.
AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AND THE COLUMN UNDERGOES
FURTHER MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT ONTO THE MORE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS BRIEFLY COMING ASHORE BEFORE DISSIPATING. WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER FOR MUCH OF THE BEACHES AND
IMMEDIATE ADJACENT LOCATIONS.

DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN CREEPING HIGHER FROM E TO W AS THE LOW LEVELS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODIFY IN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL SERVE AS A
FLOOR...KEEPING TEMPS OVERNIGHT HIGHER THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS.
ALSO...WITH MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUING...WE SHOULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. INLAND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE MOST
CONDUCIVE FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR SUNRISE. WE ARE
FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY HIGH CLOUDS...WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE N AND W TONIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE MORE IMMEDIATE COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
OFFSHORE/COASTAL SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEAK AMORPHOUS PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A STALLED FRONT POSITIONED WELL
OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. A
LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON MONDAY...BUT EXPECT IT
WILL HAVE NO REAL IMPACT ON LOCAL CONDITIONS. DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL
BE NORTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SWINGS OFF EASTERN
CONUS WHILE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE STAYS GENERALLY EASTERLY. THIS
SETUP WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE READINGS BETWEEN BOTH DAYS. BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
AND MODEST INSTABILITY IS INTRODUCED...WITH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
PROFILES BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE. THE AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE FRONT
MAY ACT AS A TRIGGER TO TUESDAYS CONVECTION...ALONG WITH A
STRENGTHENING PIEDMONT TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WED AND THU
WILL KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY FREE OF PRECIP. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED EACH AFTERNOON BUT DO EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL THEN PUSH
INLAND. LIMITED SUPPORT ALOFT AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP
COVERAGE IN THE SLIGHT CHANGE RANGE.

UNCERTAINTY LINGERS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH
RESPECT TO FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. PREVIOUSLY THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAD BEEN CONSISTENT WITH STALLING THE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST FROM
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT STALLING CLOSE TO THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION AREA WIDE EACH
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE INCREASES FOR THE WEEKEND AS 5H RIDGE RETREATS
WEST AND DEVELOPING 5H TROUGH CAUSES SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DEEP
MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AT TIMES. INCREASED MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH MORE FAVORABLE MID LEVEL PATTERN PUSHES PRECIP CHANCES INTO
THE HIGH CHC RANGE LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF CLIMO THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOG. THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE PARTICULARLY INLAND EVEN THOUGH RH`S ARE IN THE 30S RIGHT
NOW. BUFKIT SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL CHANGE IN HUMIDITIES...AS
WELL AS LIGHT WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOK FOR FOG TO START
TO SET UP AFTER 07Z...WITH GREATEST INTENSITY FROM 10-11Z. A QUICK
BURNOFF IS IN STORE MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS
EXPECTED BY 13Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT WITH
SOME 4 FT SEAS THROUGH LATE EVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A
WEAK 11 SECOND SE SWELL WILL PERSIST.

A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH...BUT MAY OSCILLATE
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD LEADING TO A SLIGHT SLACKING OF THE GRADIENT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND EASTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE
OFF THE COAST WED INTO THU...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW BECOMING
MORE SOUTHEAST ON THU. GRADIENT CHANGES LITTLE ON FRI AS WEAK
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST STALLS WEST OF THE COAST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL CAUSE ONSHORE FLOW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL


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