Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 090619
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
119 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC EXPRESS WILL INVADE THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE MID WEEK
PERIOD THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE 1ST OF SEVERAL DRY ARCTIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT ONE
OCCURRING AT THE END OF THIS WEEK. THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND IS
SHAPING UP TO BE THE COLDEST OF THIS WINTER SEASON. ..AND WILL
PROVIDE THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS WINTER SEASON DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE BAND OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
PRECEDING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES LEFT LINGERING ALONG THE COAST. HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED
DATABASE TO REFLECT PROGRESSION OF PRECIP AND EXPECT BY MIDNIGHT
IT WILL HAVE ALL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD
FRONT. AS EXPECTED QPF VALUES WERE ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO A
FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH...TOO LIGHT TO AGGRAVATE RECENT FLOODING
ISSUES. AIR MASS REMAINS TOO WARM FOR ANY P-TYPE ISSUES. BRIEF
PERIODS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING BAND OF PRECIP HAVE
ENDED. EXPECT A DRY AND COOL OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WARMED A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HAVE
FOLLOWED SUITE. MOST READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S PRIMARILY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER REMAINING COUPLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD COOL AND DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
POST FRONTAL CHILLY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES
ENTRENCHED OVER NE SC AND SE NC. NO APPRECIABLE FORCING THIS
PERIOD AND OVERALL DRYISH COLUMN CONDITIONS WILL RESTRAIN ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES FROM GEARING UP. 875-750 MB CLOUDS MAY
TRAVERSE THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...FULLY EXPECT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNKEN
INTO THE 20S. DUE TO ANTICIPATED BREEZES BOTH MORNINGS APPARENT
TEMPS/WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 13-21 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE WEATHER FOR WHICH
ROBERTO FROST WOULD LIKELY APPROVE...BOTH IN ITS NEW-ENGLAND TYPE
COLD AND CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP LATE WEEK AS AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIR MASS PLAGUES THE SOUTHEAST.

DRY COLD FRONT OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING LEAVES BLUSTERY AND COLD
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. 850MB TEMPS OF -7C TO -10C WILL KEEP TEMPS
WELL BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND LOWS INTO FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES A
BAROCLINIC GRADIENT NEARBY...ON WHICH AT LEAST A WAKE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/ECM BOTH DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTN...AND WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IF QPF CAN
OCCUR. LOCAL TOP DOWN SUGGESTS AN RW/SW MIX...AND WITH AN OTHERWISE
WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE "THE ONLY OTHER SOUNDS THE SWEEP OF EASY WIND
AND DOWNY FLAKE." NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST ATTM OF COURSE...BUT
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.

DRY AND EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THIS FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING BY SUNDAY TOWARDS -20C. WHILE IT IS TOO
EARLY TO JUMP ON THIS EXTREME COLD...THE TREND HAS BEEN THERE AND
WILL BEGIN TO RAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARDS VERY COLD VALUES. THESE
TEMPS WILL POTENTIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL ON THE
STRONG CAA AS WELL...SO "AN HOUR OF WINTER DAY MIGHT SEEM TOO
SHORT"...OR LONG IF VENTURING OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS WIND CHILLS
MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

BY MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST...WITH ALL
TERMINALS EXHIBITING WSW-W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. LBT TERMINAL MAY
BRIEFLY OBSERVE GUSTS ABOVE 15 KT THRU 08Z BUT SHOULD SETTLE BACK
TO 10 KT OR LESS THERE-AFTER. A LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROF IS NOW ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME
SHEARED VORTICITY IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND AVBL MOISTURE IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL STRATOCU AND ALTOCU
CLOUD DECKS THRUOUT THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. THEIR RESPECTIVE
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN VFR TERRITORY. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
AVIATORS WILL BE THE GUSTY WSW-W WINDS THAT WILL GET BUSY AN HOUR
OR 2 AFTER DAYBREAK TUE. DURING DAYLIGHT TUE...THE CAA WILL
COMBINE WITH A WELL TIGHTENED SFC PG AND PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30+ KT. THE WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS GUSTING
TO 20 TO 30+ KT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO EARLIER THINKING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AND WINDS UP AROUND
20 TO 25 KTS. LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY 0600 UTC WITH A WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN A 20-25 KNOT RANGE.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS WITH 8-10 FEET EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING
WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...AN UNWELCOMING MARINE ENVIRONMENT TUE AND WED
WITH ADVISORY WEST WINDS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALLER
WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR-SHORE ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES BUT FARTHER OUT
SEAS WILL WORSEN. GUSTS TO 30 KT A GOOD BET ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BOTH DAYS. SEAS GENERALLY 3-7 FT BOTH DAYS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TUE/WED BECAUSE OF THE
BLUSTERY WIND-SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BOOKEND THE PERIOD BEHIND
A COLD FRONT JUST BEFORE THE PERIOD...AND A SECOND ONE ON FRIDAY
EVENING. NW WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ALL DAY SATURDAY...WILL
BE 15-20 KTS...BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE MOSTLY LIGHT AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHEST
DURING THE GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...FALLING FROM 3-5 FT
EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN RISING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT LATE SATURDAY WITH
A NW WIND CHOP THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
WEAK GROUND SWELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...COASTAL FLOODING IN PROGRESS ALONG THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER NEAR DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON AND ADJOINING AREAS.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

TWO FOOT POSITIVE ANOMALIES AT THE DOWNTOWN RIVER GAGE HAVE
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER FOR THIS EVENING. THE EARLIER HIGH TIDE CYCLE
TODAY REACHED 6.61 FEET...WHICH IS CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOODING.
THIS NEXT ONE LOOKS TO BE A BIT LOWER. IN ADDITION TO
FLOODING...WE COULD SEE BLOW-OUT TIDES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR THE BEACHES...WITH WATER LEVEL ANOMALIES AS MUCH AS 3
FEET BELOW NORMAL FOR MYRTLE BEACH ACCORDING TO ESTOFS GUIDANCE.
ETSURGE GUIDANCE NOT AS EXTREME. WILL MONITOR SITUATION AND ISSUE
ADVISORIES AS NECESSARY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK


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