Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 161610

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1208 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

A strong cold front will cross the coast today, accompanied by
a few showers. Drier and much cooler air will build into the
area behind the front tonight and Tuesday, as Canadian high
pressure builds in. Dry weather and seasonable conditions will
prevail through the week, with a warming trend developing by
next weekend.


As of 1208 PM Monday...Adjustments were needed for hourly and
maximum temperatures in the early going, as full sun and downslope
flow in the warm sector, was bringing low 80s across the eastern
zones. Winds will become NW across the area by 18z/2PM, with the
majority of the rain falling in wake of the windshift. Showers
should reach coastal zones 3-4 pm. Its not clear how cohesive or
organized the convection will be as it reaches the coast, since
waning low-level convergence will be in place, but scattered to a
likely coverage is advertised, particularly with strong low-level
warming. By 5 pm it will become breezy to windy across the area as
CAA sets in with a N-NNE gust to 30 mph likely. There could be a
period of patchy, light, wind-blown stratiform rain, as more
pronounced over-running interacts with elevated H9-H7 RH in wake of
the front, mostly from the late afternoon through mid evening.

As of 300 AM Monday...A strong cold front (from a temperature
standpoint) currently resides in Western North Carolina. This
front will make steady progress through the area today. The
front has limited moisture thus the broken line of weakening
showers and isolated thunder showing up on regional radar loops.
We are maintaining the chance to brief likely pops for today
mainly either side of 1800 UTC. There is some indication of the
showers lingering into late afternoon and the day shift may need
to monitor the trends. Clearing and somewhat blustery tonight
with decent northwest winds (not mid winter like) ushering in
lows Tuesday morning in the middle to upper 40s. Highs today
will be a little tricky with the anticipated clouds and showers
with possible breaks. Overall expect a wide range of mid to
upper 70s east with considerably lower values northwestern


As of 300 AM Monday...Canadian high pressure will bring the
coolest weather yet of this fall season to the Carolinas. The
center of the high will remain to our north, passing through the
central Appalachians Tuesday and moving off the Mid-Atlantic
coast by late Wednesday. 850 mb temps will bottom out in the
+8C to +10C range on Tuesday, moderating a couple degrees on
Wednesday as the mean surface-850 mb flow veers more easterly.
Aside from a few cirrus, skies should remain clear through the
period. It`s interesting to note that precipitable water values
were at record high levels just last week at 2.3 to 2.4 inches.
Models are showing PWs of only 0.25 inches Tuesday morning
during the driest portion of this incoming Canadian airmass.

High temperatures on Tuesday should rise only into the upper
60s. This last time highs were this cool was April 25th in
Florence and North Myrtle Beach; May 13th in Lumberton; and June
8th in Wilmington. Tuesday night looks like the coolest night of
the week with 42-45 degrees expected inland, and upper 40s near
the coast. The last time temps fell into the 40s was May 8th in
North Myrtle Beach; and May 9th in Wilmington, Lumberton, and
Florence. Highs and lows should both moderate by about 5 degrees
Wednesday/Wednesday night.


As of 244 PM Sunday...A broad upper trough of moderate
amplitude at the beginning of the forecast period just upstream,
will translate eastward through the period. This feature will
exit the coast late in the week, while a short-wave upper ridge
of high amplitude edges in from the west. This pattern in terms
of sensible weather should bring a mainly pleasant Fall-like mid
week period, transitioning to a warming trend late week and
next weekend. The expansive surface high itself will budge only
a bit east into next weekend, and should still have a pronounced
foothold on the region. As a result, the radiational cooling
potential could still allow seasonable, to slightly above normal
minimums into late week. Tropospheric cross-sections through
time, show arid air remains in place above 8000 feet, and thus a
dry week upcoming. Return flow should re-introduce moisture
into the area during next weekend, in the mild/warm sector, as
long range models appear to be resolving a cold frontal passage
next Monday day 8.


As of 12Z...Will be transitioning from a stratus/fog scenario this
morning to some possible convection later today associated with a
fairly decent cold front that will sweep across the region this
afternoon. Look for some possible IFR fog/stratus mainly inland
through 14-15Z. Convection will enter the western CWA later this
morning, but may wane as it reaches the coast. Winds will become
northerly and quite gusty this afternoon and evening as the cold air
advection commences.

Extended Outlook...MVFR stratus possible near the coast
TUE morning in blustery post-frontal NE wind. Otherwise VFR in
the extended.


As of 300 AM Monday...Winds are still relatively light across the
coastal waters from the southwest around ten knots. This should
remain the case for the next several hours. By midday or so the flow
will turn offshore as a front moves steadily across the area. The
stronger surge of winds arrives late this afternoon and evening from
the north, northeast. Expect speeds to quickly ramp up to 20-25 knots
with higher gusts and maybe a few hours of 25-30 knots as efficient
mixing should occur with cold air advection and relatively warm
waters. Tepid seas currently around 2-3 feet will ramp up
accordingly with the winds to 5-7 feet. The Small Craft Advisory
timing still looks good.

As of 300 AM Monday...Canadian high pressure centered over the
central Appalachians Tuesday will move off the Mid-Atlantic
coast Wednesday night. With the center of the high remaining
well to our north, we never get in on the light winds these
highs can sometimes bring. Instead, strong northeasterly
winds 20-25 kt Tuesday will only diminish to 15-20 kt Tuesday
night through Wednesday night as the pressure gradient remains
rather tight across our area. Although nearshore seas will
diminish through the period, particularly between Cape Fear and
Murrells Inlet, enough wind will continue across the more open
waters near Cape Fear and east of Winyah Bay to maintain 6 foot
seas, and Small Craft Advisories are expected to continue through
at least late Wednesday afternoon.

As of 244 PM Sunday...This appears to be a period of
improvement across all marine locations, as gusty NE winds begin
to abate, allowing wave heights to also drop. The sea recovery
period will be a gradual one, as the high builds very slowly to
the SE. Seas will subside to 3-4 feet by early Friday, with a
light to moderate NE-E chop in the mix then. The period is dry.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ250-252-256.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ254.



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