Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 201728 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1228 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm through much of the week. High pressure will slowly build across the area through Tuesday, shifting offshore Wednesday. A trough of low pressure will bring increased cloudiness and some showers mid week. Near record warmth will come Friday and Saturday with an increasing chance of showers ahead of an approaching cold front Friday night into Saturday. Cooler and drier high pressure will build in behind the cold front Saturday night into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 900 AM Monday...High pressure will be reinforced from the north through tonight. High pressure aloft will continue to migrate eastward with its ridge axis reaching the eastern Carolinas Tue morning. Dry air and subsidence will keep skies clear today with high clouds beginning to increase tonight. A developing onshore flow will keep the more coastal environs in the mid and upper 60s this afternoon. However, away from the cooling influences of the ocean, temperatures will again reach the lower to mid 70s. Lows tonight will be similar to early this morning, lower to mid 40s, but near 50 at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...Expect increasing cloudiness from Tuesday afternoon onwards with the chances for showers increasing from the west in the early morning hours of Wednesday as an upper trough approaches and then moves across the eastern seaboard. Increasing cloud cover will help keep daytime temperatures on Tuesday a few degrees cooler than Monday. Approaching upper trough will only be reflected as a weak trough at the surface, but a substantial increase in deep layer moisture and adequate isentropic lift associated with the upper trough makes at least slight chance to low chance pops seem plausible well into Wednesday. Paltry dynamics means QPF will be kept on the minimal side. A weak WAA regime will develop on Wednesday, which should allow a bump in temperatures from Tuesday`s readings. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday...A deeper southerly return flow will develop around Atlantic high pressure as shortwave exits off the Southeast coast on Thursday. A very warm and moist air mass will be in place Thurs through Saturday. Dewpoint temps will increase to near 60 ahead of an approaching cold front late Fri into Saturday. Temperatures will reach near record warmth Fri and Saturday with readings up near 80. This will produce a fairly healthy sea breeze each afternoon and should see cu development and possible convection in this warm and moist air mass. The best chc of showers will come ahead of cold front as it approaches and moves through Fri night into Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF keep best shortwave energy with this system much farther north with actually show limited if any convection over the Carolinas with the cold front. The actual FROPA should take place later on Saturday. A complete change of air mass will take place as cooler and drier air advects in behind cold front Sat night into Sunday. Pcp water values up to 1.25 inches ahead of cold front will drop down around a quarter of an inch by Sun morning in a deep W-NW flow as high pressure builds in. Temperatures cool off into the mid 60s for Sunday which is still a few degrees above normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 18Z...High confidence in VFR through today. Some MVFR possible at the coast on Tuesday. Other than scattered high cirrus today, high pressure is the dominant feature as it extends down from eastern Canada. With the ridge axis to the west, winds will be E/NE and light through tonight, and despite this being an onshore direction, the airmass origin is very dry so there are no clouds or fog forecast overnight. During Tuesday, as winds remain from the E at 5-10 kts, enough moist advection occurs on the onshore flow to allow for scattered to potentially broken MVFR stratocu along the coast. For now have capped the TAFs without a CIG, but MVFR is possible after sunrise. Extended Outlook... Patchy fog possible late Tuesday night. Isolated showers late Wednesday through Thursday. Showers possible Saturday with a cold front.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 900 AM Monday...High pressure will be reinforced from the north through tonight. The wind direction will be from the NE. Wind speeds will be up to 10 to 15 kt, highest tonight. Seas of about 2 ft this morning will build about a foot through tonight. A few 4 ft observations are expected across the outermost northern waters late tonight. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...Weak high pressure over the waters will keep winds in the 10 to 15 kt through much of the period. Seas will remain right around 2 ft for both days. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday...A deep return flow will develop Thursday into Friday generally remaining 10 kts or less. A very warm air mass in place will generate a healthy sea breeze each afternoon. Therefore expect winds to back a little each afternoon and spike up. The ECMWF shows a trough extending up from the low pressure over Florida on Thursday and actually tracks the low up toward Hatteras through Friday. This may affect our local winds but for now will keep with a southerly flow. The light but persistent southerly flow gradually increases seas through the period from less than 3 ft Thurs morning up to around 4 ft by late Friday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...JDW MARINE...

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