Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 171045 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 645 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE. HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE THE LOW CLOUDS PRIMARILY REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. MOST LOCATIONS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S...WITH SOME TEMPS AROUND 40 FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AS OF 420 AM THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOTES DRY MID LAYER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WHILE IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LOW CLOUDS WORKING ONSHORE ACROSS SE NC AND NEAR GEORGETOWN. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL DIRECT THE OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DIRECT SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE THIS WAY AS WELL. THE TREND FOR TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY THEY WILL REMAIN A FEW CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL. THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AID IN WARMER MINS TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. FARTHER INLAND MINS WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 420 AM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED IN. MODELS WERE STILL DIVERGING AS TO THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW BUT OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING LIFT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TO PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCP. THE GREATEST QPF MAY END UP BEING JUST OFF SHORE WHERE TROUGH EXTENDS UP THROUGH. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF PCP WILL COME LATE FRI INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT CLOUDS AND PCP MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS THIS LOW MOVES UP THE COAST. GFS LOOKS TO THE BE THE FASTEST SOLUTION BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER INLAND ALSO. WILL INCREASE PCP CHANCES FRI AFTN INTO SATURDAY SHOWING A GREATER CHC INLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS SHOULD HOLD INT THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND MAY END UP BEING LOWER THAN FORECAST IF CLOUDS AND PCP OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLIER. DROPPED THE HIGHS FOR SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PCP. ALTHOUGH IF PCP ENDS AND SKIES CLEAR...TEMPS COULD JUMP INTO THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO 50. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 420 AM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. EXPECT DRYING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH COASTAL AREAS THE LAST PLACE TO CLEAR AS LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCP MAY LINGER DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW MOVES AWAY. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM BUT SHOULD SEE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK END BRINGING DRIER AIR IN...ESPECIALLY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GFS BRINGS PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN A HALF INCH UNTIL LATE TUES WHEN NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE W-NW. THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THIS FRONT EAST THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TUES EVENING. NOT MUCH IN TERMS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO PRODUCE ANYTHING BUT SHOWERS. AS SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND IT. OVERALL WARMING TREND EARLY TO MID WEEK. MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP THE EAST COAST WED AND THURS WITH HEIGHT RISES LEADING TO SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 06Z...11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SOME MARINE STRATOCU IS BEGINNING TO REACH THE COASTAL TERMS. CIGS BEING REPORTED NOW ARE ABOVE 3KFT...SO WILL ADD VFR CIGS TO KILM/KMYR/KCRE THROUGH DAYBREAK. TEMPO MVFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM. KFLO/KLBT SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY...BECOMING 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 KTS. EXPECT SCT/BKN STRATOCU DURING THE DAY WITH VFR CIGS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AFTER 18Z. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE COASTAL TERMS COULD SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT AT LEAST PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL AS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST. MARINE OBS INDICATE SPEEDS AT OR ABOUT 15 KNOTS INSHORE AND 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. SEAS LIKELY RANGE FROM AROUND 2 FT NEAR THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST TO 3 TO 5 FT 5 NM OFFSHORE TO AROUND 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. PREVIOUS FORECAST... AS OF 420 AM THURSDAY...THE NORTHEAST FETCH WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST AWAY FROM THE COAST AND AS A RESULT THE OUTER WATERS WILL LIKELY SEE A CONTINUATION OF SMALL CRAFT WAVE CONDITIONS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE NORTHEAST FETCH. SEAS WILL BE LOWEST ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY INSHORE WATERS WHERE THE FETCH IS BLOCKED. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 420 AM THURSDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OVERALL EXPECT PERSISTENT NE FLOW GREATEST OFF SHORE AND DECREASING CLOSER TO THE COAST TO NEAR 15 KTS BUT LATEST WNA AND MODEL RUNS SHOW WINDS HOLDING UP AS TIGHTENED GRADIENT HOLDS FRI INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. LOCAL WATERS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND IN NORTHERLY WINDS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 420 AM THURSDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACK END OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP THE WINDS AND SEAS UP ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS MOST LIKELY. WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG AND FAST THE LOW MOVES OFF FURTHER TO THE E-NE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. WINDS MAY REACH UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS MAY KICK SEAS UP TO 8 TO 10 FT IN LOCAL WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY MON AFTN.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...SRP/BJR

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