Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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161 FXUS62 KILM 290527 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 127 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to bring oppressive heat and humidity to the region through Saturday. The high will begin to break down over the weekend leading to increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday and continuing through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1205 AM Friday...Skies will remain clear overnight as model soundings show a very dry low-levels but it does show a low- level jet continuing overnight. No changes were made to tonight low- level temperatures will range from the middle 70s inland to near 80 at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Thursday...While not exactly a refreshing cooldown by any means there actually may not be any heat products needed tomorrow. Piedmont trough pushes east enough to advect the higher dewpoints offshore. Heat indices generally in the 100-104 range. The mid level ridge is also beaten down by broad, weakly cyclonic belt of westerlies across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. This means that a few spots may actually be able to support some diurnal convection. The Cape Fear area sea breeze appears to have the best shot while a secondary max should be far NW zones in association with the trough. Places farther south still look too capped. Saturday is starting to look interesting. The Piedmont trough closes off a weak low and forecast soundings show a lessening of the mid level dry air that has been so instrumental in squelching convection. Also interesting is that guidance shows that afternoon temperatures get warmer again and we are looking at a Heat Advisory again. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 PM Thursday...Mid level pattern will have transitioned to troughing by the start of the period, with the strength of the 5h trough increasing slightly Mon and Tue. A cold front will move into the region during the middle of next week but this feature is likely to stall just north and west of the area. This will leave the Piedmont trough and the daily sea breeze, along with the Bermuda High, as the most significant surface features during the period. Mid level cooling and deep moisture, PWATs will be around 2 inches Sun into Tue, will lead to a steady increase in precip chances Sun and Mon. Likely pop is warranted across the region Mon and Mon night before the mid level axis moves overhead Tue. The trough axis brings an increase in dry air aloft and weak downward motion, causing a decreasing trend in precip chances for the middle of the week. Pop will still be on the high side Tue as deep moisture holds on but by Wed PWATs drop down near 1.5 inch and remain there through Thu. Temperatures 5 to 8 degrees above climo Sun and Mon will trend back to climo for the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 06Z...The aviation community can expect VFR conditions through the period. Winds should remain elevated sufficiently through the morning hours to preclude even MVFR BR. The GFS has sea breeze convection later today but opted to keep it out of the forecast for now as the recovery from such unfavorable profiles seems fast. 12z issuance will want to see how the high resolution cycles are trending. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon convection Sunday and onward through the forecast will create fleeting and localized MVFR/IFR. Otherwise expect VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1210 AM Friday...A low-level jet has formed again tonight and current vad wind profile at kltx is showing a 25 to 30 knot wind between 1000 and 6000 feet. This is translating down to a 15 to 20 knot wind over the waters. Seas will range from 2 to 3 feet with 4 ft waves at 20 miles off the coast. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Thursday...Southwesterly flow continues between high pressure and the Bermuda high. Low level jet from the near term will persist but also weaken and move further offshore. This could cause the 4 ft seas to drop out of the forecast. Saturday looks like a bit of a repeat with light SW flow through the day and then a nocturnal jet at night that kicks up the winds and may even feature a return of 4 ft seas. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 PM Thursday...Marine conditions will continue to be driven by the interaction of the Piedmont trough and the Bermuda High. SOuthwest flow will continue through the period with speeds closer to 10 kt in the morning, increasing to a solid 15 kt in the afternoon and evening. Seas continue to run 2 to 4 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SHK

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