Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 030542 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1242 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A DRAMATIC WARM UP...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EVEN COLDER AIRMASS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A VERY GRADUAL WARM UP...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...BASED ON RADAR AND LATEST MODELS I HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF RAIN BY SEVERAL MORE HOURS...REDUCING POPS TO LESS THAN 40 PERCENT EVEN BACK ACROSS OUR SC PEE DEE COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST ENTIRELY EAST OF WHITEVILLE AND MYRTLE BEACH INCLUDING WILMINGTON. FEW CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES. DISCUSSION FROM 1015 PM FOLLOWS... A WEAK COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED WELL S OF NE SC THIS LATE EVENING...POSITIONED FROM S OF CHS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH NE-ENE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BUT NOT QUICKLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...SETTLING IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR OF SE NC TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OF SC AND COASTAL NC. THE ONSHORE COMPONENT OF ENE FLOW MAY KEEP OUR COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 40S INTO DAYBREAK. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY. RADAR WAS PICKING UP VIRGA MOVING INTO CENTRAL SC BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL WAS STILL WELL WEST INTO GEORGIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND T/TD/RH VALUES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL DURING TUESDAY HOWEVER AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS MINS WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR IN THE EVENING MOST LOCATIONS THEN TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. ANY SEA FOG THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE COOLER SHELF WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY SHOULD EASILY DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING AS THE WIND INCREASES. THE SOUTHERLY FETCH OVERRIDING THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL ALSO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL BRUNSWICK AND SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DURING WEDNESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TO FOLLOW AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PICTURE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WHEN IT COMES TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOKS LIKE THE LATEST GFS HOLDS MID TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THURS WITH LOW PRESSURE WAVE RIDING UP ALONG THE SFC FRONT WHICH IS STILL BACK OVER EASTERN CAROLINAS THURS MORNING. THEREFORE IT LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY WILL NOW START OUT VERY WARM IN SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH BY NOON. THERE WILL BE MORE OF AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN WINDS FROM SW TO N ONCE FRONT DROPS SOUTH. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF COASTAL CAROLINAS AND LOOKS LIKE MOST OF PCP WILL COME ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THURS...MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION ALONG FRONT AND STRATIFORM RAIN AS WARM SW WINDS ALOFT RIDE OVER THE SHALLOW COOL AIR BEHIND SFC FRONT THURS AFTN. WARMEST TEMPS ON THURS WILL BE EARLY MORNING BEFORE FROPA. BY THURS NIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH MORE OF ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND COLD NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE AFC. THIS SHOULD HELP BRING PLENTY OF DRY AND COLD AIR INTO THE AREA THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRI. PCP WATER VALUES UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES THURS MORNING WILL DROP TO LESS THAN QUARTER OF AN INCH THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRI. EXPECT DRY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES OFF SHORE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS. A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST AND THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SOME LOW END POPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS SHOWS GREATER CHC OF PCP ON SAT WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS ANY PCP OFF UNTIL SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPS WILL TAKE A DIVE ONCE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ON THURS WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12C THURS MORNING DROPPING DOWN NEAR 0C BY FRI MORNING. THIS STRONG CAA AND POSSIBLY LINGERING CLOUDS AND PCP WILL KEEP VERY COOL TEMPS FOR THURS AFTN INTO FRIDAY. AFTER MAX TEMPS EARLY THURS TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S LATE THURS AND WILL REMAIN ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING MOST PLACES BOTH THURS NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. WITH MID TO UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH ANY SUNSHINE WILL HELP BRING THEM UP A NOTCH. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL RIDE UP AND OVER A COLD FRONT NOW STALLING DOWN ACROSS GEORGIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING FIRST ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA AFTER DAYBREAK. NE-E WINDS AT THE SURFACE MAY GUST TO 15-18 KNOTS BEFORE DAYBREAK ALONG THE COAST...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING SMALL AREAS OF LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE LBT/FLO AIRPORTS BEFORE 08Z. THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY SHOULD SEE PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN WITH INTERMITTENT VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN BR. STRATUS SHOULD LOWER BELOW 1000 FEET TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS LATE WED. RAIN/IFR THUR. VFR DEVELOPING FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD BE INCREASING RATHER RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS. LATEST WAVE OBSERVATIONS SHOW 4.5 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...3 FEET AT THE "HARBOR" BUOY SOUTH OF SOUTHPORT...AND ONLY 1.5 FEET AT THE SUNSET BEACH NEARSHORE BUOY. (THE BUOY OFF WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH HAS BEEN OUT OF SERVICE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS.) MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH. DISCUSSIONS FROM 1015 PM FOLLOWS... ENE WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE WATERS IN WAKE OF A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT...AND SUSPECT GUSTS TO 25 KT REMAINS QUITE POSSIBLE SO THE SCA TO BE RETAINED INTO DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD BOOST WAVE HEIGHTS ANOTHER 1-2 FT TO REACH 3-5 FEET MOST AREAS OF THE 0-20NM WATERS BY SUNRISE TUE. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...NE TO E FETCH TUESDAY WILL VEER TO A SE TO S WIND BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE COOLER SHELF WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL HELP TO DISSIPATE ANY SEA FOG BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS COULD POSSIBLE INCREASE TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...LATEST MODELS HOLDING FROPA BACK AGAIN UNTIL AROUND NOON TIME ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP S-SW WINDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURS MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 3 TO 6 FT. SHOULD SEE AN FAIRLY ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO N BEHIND FRONT ON THURS. STRONG CAA AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL KEEP SEAS UP TO 4 TO 7 FT THROUGH THURS NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD KEEP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN THROUGH LATE FRI AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD AND THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MAY SEE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS TO LIGHTEN AND SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA BY FRI AFTN AND DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS OVER MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...TRA

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