Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 240523 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 120 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will run below normal through early Friday as cool high pressure holds across the area. A warming trend will begin Friday afternoon through the weekend, as low pressure slowly approaches from the west. This system will bring a chance of rain late in the weekend, followed by another system Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1000 PM Thursday...A Frost Advisory is in effect for Robeson, Bladen, Pender and Columbus counties overnight and into Fri morning. A good deal of clear skies are expected to continue overnight with some increasing high level moisture which will be manifested in the form of thin cirrus late. Marine stratocumulus will approach the coast overnight and a few may brush portions of the immediate coast near sunrise. Winds will be light to calm. This provides sufficient opportunity for a decent amount of radiational cooling. Also, low level moisture has been increasing and dewpoints will hold steady if not rise slightly for the remainder of the night. As dewpoint depressions narrow to a degree or two, we expect frost to develop where temps drop to the mid 30s. This will be primarily across out northernmost counties where we expect areas of frost with the best coverage likely across Bladen and inland Pender counties. Pockets of frost could locally develop elsewhere away from the coast where temps drop to 37 or below. We are generally forecasting lows in the upper 30s to around 40 outside the Frost Advisory area with lower to mid 40s along the immediate coast. Cold high pressure along the eastern seaboard will slip offshore late tonight and Fri as a coastal trough develops offshore and drifts west. Surface winds turn southerly on Friday, allowing a modest warm-advective regime to set up. Highs will finally rise back up to near or just above normal with most places seeing a degree or two either side of 70. Expect some afternoon cu to form with the lower layers moistening up. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...A return to above normal temperatures will take place heading into the weekend. Atlantic high pressure will maintain a solid southerly return flow through the low levels bringing warmer and moister air into the Carolinas through the weekend. Mid to upper ridge building up the southeast coast will shift east through the period. Overall, plenty of dry air and subsidence in the mid levels with H5 heights peaking up near 585 dam early Sat. As the ridge slips east, the deep S-SW flow will stream some high clouds into the area and the low level moisture increase up through h85 will also aid in development of some afternoon cu, especially along the convergent sea breeze in the afternoon. Overall, expect mainly clear skies with a good deal of sunshine and above normal temps. The 850 temps will be near 6 to 7c through the period which is up from near 0c just the day before. Low temps around 50 Fri night will rise into the mid 70s on Saturday. Sun night will be almost 10 degrees above normal with low temps in the mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Thursday...Rain chances are best inland Sunday as a low pressure system swerves north, well west of the coast. A warm and humid day Sunday all areas, well into the 70s, if not a few 80s depending on cloud cover extent, even ceiling breaks could warm the air quickly. A rumble of thunder is possible and favored inland. A few low pressure centers beneath short-waves will sustain low end rain chances Monday into Tuesday. QPF looks quite low but hopefully enough to knock a little pollen out of the sky and pines. No cold air on the horizon and temperatures overall appear to run above normal through the extended period. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 06Z...High confidence in VFR for all terminals through the TAF valid period. Still cannot rule out some moisture in the 1-3kft range along the coast but it should not form a ceiling. Models have also backed off on this moisture anyway. Extended outlook...Flight category restrictions are possible in stratus/fog during the early morning hours of Sat and Sun and in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sun through Tue. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1000 PM Thursday...All headlines have been discontinued across the waters late this eve. For the remainder of the night, seas of 3 to 5 ft will slowly subside to 3 to 4 ft with a 2 ft easterly swell on the order of 10 to 11 seconds. The wind direction will be ENE to NE at 10 to 15 kt. As a developing offshore coastal trough creeps to the W, wind speeds are expected to decrease slightly by Fri morning. High pressure will pass offshore Friday and winds will be on the order of 5 to 10 kt and seas around 2 ft. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...High pressure anchored over the Atlantic will maintain a S-SE return flow across the waters...10 kts or less. Should see a spike in on shore flow with the afternoon sea breeze. The southerly push will produce a gradual rise in seas from 2 to 3 ft up to 2 to 4 ft by Sat night. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Thursday...No advisories are expected Sunday and Monday but seas may approach 4 feet since southerly flow remains persistent. Isolated marine showers can be expected this period but TSTMS if any would be confined to the Gulf Stream if at all. Seas 3-4 feet mainly in SE waves between 7-10 second intervals with a moderate chop. The warm land temps will support a sea breeze so expected gusts near 20 KT near shore in the afternoon hours. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for NCZ087-096-099- 105. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK/RJD SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...MBB

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