Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 220541 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 141 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A seasonably cool weekend is on tap followed by a brief warm-up Monday. A reinforcing shot of dry and cool air Monday night will set the stage for dry weather and seasonable temperatures this upcoming week. A low pressure system will approach the area late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1005 PM Friday...Cold front and all associated convection now well offshore. Dew points are crashing and clear skies will prevail overnight. Cold advection slated for the remainder of the period to yield a breezy night and low temps in the upper 40s to around 50. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Friday...A crisp Fall airmass will build into the area over the weekend. Expect full sunshine and decreasing winds but also temperatures below climatology by roughly 5 degrees by both day and night as highs fall short of 70 and nighttime lows dip into the 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 3 PM Friday...Dry cold front will sweep across the forecast area Monday followed by surface high building in from the north, pushed south by 5h trough exiting New England early next week. Temps Mon, ahead of the front, will end up above climo. Surface ridge axis is quick to move east despite flow aloft that isn`t fully zonal. Surface flow will veer from northerly at the start of the period to southerly late in the period. Aloft the flow transitions from northwest flow Mon to westerly flow Wed as weak 5h ridge to the west expands east. Ridge is of limited strength but combination of southerly low level flow and slight increase in heights later in the week will bring about a gradual warming trend. Late in the week the GFS/ECMWF are split with respect to strength and location of shortwave trough. ECMWF keeps the 5h ridge a bit stronger which results in the wave passing north of the region. Trailing cold front would push across the area sometime Fri but would do so dry. GFS maintains a weaker mid level ridge which results in the shortwave moving across NC/VA Fri with unsettled weather to end period. For now favor the ECMWF solution given the tendency for the guidance to underestimate the strength of ridging aloft. Temps Tue and Wed will run a little below climo before returning near climo Thu and Fri. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 06Z...SKC/VFR. Cold air advection in wake of a cold front moving farther offshore this morning, will impart moderately gusty and dry northwest winds, easing late in the day. Ideal flight conditions tonight amid a crisp and clear atmosphere with W-WNW wind 5 knots or less and plenty stars. Extended Outlook...Expect VFR Saturday night through Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1005 PM Friday...Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for post-frontal winds overnight. Front is now moving across the waters and will be followed by strong and gusty winds with seas up to around 5 ft. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Friday...Fairly robust cool advection and high pressure moving in through Saturday morning before the gradient starts to ease. Advisory flags likely to be flying until afternoon or evening, with northern zones likely abating a bit after their southern counterparts. The high to our west starts to move eastward Saturday night and should sprawl across a good part of the Carolinas and Gulf States by Sunday allowing for wind speeds to drop off especially later in the day. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM Friday...Cold front will cross the waters during Mon with cold advection Mon night and Tue leading to northerly flow in the 15 to 20 kt range. Cold advection and gradient weaken later Tue with winds becoming more northeast and dropping to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft Mon could approach 5 ft well away from the coast Tue afternoon. Decreasing winds during the second half of the period will allows seas to drop back around 3 ft Wed. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 1005 AM Friday...Looks like between the hours of 1 AM and 5 AM for the next chance for the Lower Cape Fear River to spill out of it`s banks for some more minor coastal flooding. The following are high tides for the gage on the Lower Cape Fear River of downtown Wilmington thru Sunday... High tide 3:23 AM on Sat. High tide 3:56 PM on Sat. High tide 4:22 AM on Sun. High tide 4:53 PM on Sun. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for NCZ107. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ254- 256. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...8 NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...Michael Tides/Coastal Flooding...ILM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.